华尔街低估美联储？加息或早于预期
最近几周，华尔街一直在纠结一个问题：板块轮换有道理吗？
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的高级证券投资经理安德鲁·斯利蒙认为，华尔街可能低估了未来几个月利率（尤其是10年期国债收益率）快速上升的风险。高收益往往不利于风险较高的高增长股票，因为相比之下，债券等更安全的资产对投资者更有吸引力。
斯利蒙告诉《财富》杂志，美债收益率更有可能较快地攀升，因为“经济比市场普遍认为的要好，我认为其增速将超过市场普遍预期，进而高出人们预计的水平。”此外，随着美国人拿到新的纾困资金，他预计5月的10年期国债收益率将达到2%，超过许多华尔街人士的预期。
“我认为风险在于利率上升的比人们想象的要高、要快。”他说。
斯利蒙的理由是目前包括标普500指数（S&P 500）、小盘股、铜和石油在内的大型经济敏感板块的价格全面高于新冠疫情之前。“所有证据都表明，‘经济已经开始运转起来了。’唯一的例外就是利率。”
实际上，尽管近几周美国的10年期国债收益率跃升至1.6%以上，并让成长型投资者感到不安，但收益率仍然低于去年年初的水平。“如果[收益率]5月升至2%，经济增长将再次遭受重创，价值型投资将进一步加速。”斯利蒙认为。“这样的轮换操作将继续下去。”
纳斯达克（Nasdaq）综合指数近期反弹——尽管3月12日下跌，但自3月8日以来仍然上涨了5.6%，不过斯利蒙并未“把这次上涨视为加仓价值股的机会”，而是削减了科技股和成长股的仓位。
他偏爱的价值导向板块包括金融和材料股。
尽管近期表现强劲，但和科技股相比，金融股的市盈率很低（根据标普全球的数据，该板块目前市盈率约为10倍），因而对斯利蒙特别有吸引力。他说，金融股的“盈利预测调整也比一些科技股要好”。“我认为目前这是一个更让人感兴趣的领域。”
这并不是说投资者应当全面退出科技板块。斯利蒙认为，如果到10月或11月美国利率“缓慢”升至2%，成长股就应该和整体市场一样表现良好。他补充道：“这并不是说你不能把一部分资金投入这些股票，但要认识到它们的波动性非常、非常大。”
然而，长远来看，他也在关注“质量较高”的分红型防御性股票——如果利率继续攀升，这些股票可能会在未来几年带来诱人的机会。（斯利蒙认为将出现这样的情况，因为到2021年年底，债券收益率可能达到2.5%。）
斯利蒙指出，医疗保健和必需消费品等板块“确实已经落后了一段时间”。虽然他的目标不是在低风险领域增持股票，但斯利蒙指出：“当美联储说‘好的，我们要加息了’，而价值型股票开始回落时，我不知道人们会不会重拾增长型个股。我觉得人们会寻找安全的投资对象。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
最近几周，华尔街一直在纠结一个问题：板块轮换有道理吗？
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的高级证券投资经理安德鲁·斯利蒙认为，华尔街可能低估了未来几个月利率（尤其是10年期国债收益率）快速上升的风险。高收益往往不利于风险较高的高增长股票，因为相比之下，债券等更安全的资产对投资者更有吸引力。
斯利蒙告诉《财富》杂志，美债收益率更有可能较快地攀升，因为“经济比市场普遍认为的要好，我认为其增速将超过市场普遍预期，进而高出人们预计的水平。”此外，随着美国人拿到新的纾困资金，他预计5月的10年期国债收益率将达到2%，超过许多华尔街人士的预期。
“我认为风险在于利率上升的比人们想象的要高、要快。”他说。
斯利蒙的理由是目前包括标普500指数（S&P 500）、小盘股、铜和石油在内的大型经济敏感板块的价格全面高于新冠疫情之前。“所有证据都表明，‘经济已经开始运转起来了。’唯一的例外就是利率。”
实际上，尽管近几周美国的10年期国债收益率跃升至1.6%以上，并让成长型投资者感到不安，但收益率仍然低于去年年初的水平。“如果[收益率]5月升至2%，经济增长将再次遭受重创，价值型投资将进一步加速。”斯利蒙认为。“这样的轮换操作将继续下去。”
纳斯达克（Nasdaq）综合指数近期反弹——尽管3月12日下跌，但自3月8日以来仍然上涨了5.6%，不过斯利蒙并未“把这次上涨视为加仓价值股的机会”，而是削减了科技股和成长股的仓位。
他偏爱的价值导向板块包括金融和材料股。
尽管近期表现强劲，但和科技股相比，金融股的市盈率很低（根据标普全球的数据，该板块目前市盈率约为10倍），因而对斯利蒙特别有吸引力。他说，金融股的“盈利预测调整也比一些科技股要好”。“我认为目前这是一个更让人感兴趣的领域。”
这并不是说投资者应当全面退出科技板块。斯利蒙认为，如果到10月或11月美国利率“缓慢”升至2%，成长股就应该和整体市场一样表现良好。他补充道：“这并不是说你不能把一部分资金投入这些股票，但要认识到它们的波动性非常、非常大。”
然而，长远来看，他也在关注“质量较高”的分红型防御性股票——如果利率继续攀升，这些股票可能会在未来几年带来诱人的机会。（斯利蒙认为将出现这样的情况，因为到2021年年底，债券收益率可能达到2.5%。）
斯利蒙指出，医疗保健和必需消费品等板块“确实已经落后了一段时间”。虽然他的目标不是在低风险领域增持股票，但斯利蒙指出：“当美联储说‘好的，我们要加息了’，而价值型股票开始回落时，我不知道人们会不会重拾增长型个股。我觉得人们会寻找安全的投资对象。”（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
In recent weeks, Wall Street has been wrestling with the question: Does the rotation trade have legs?
Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley, argues that the Street maybe be underestimating the risk of rapidly rising rates (in particular, the 10-year Treasury yield) in the next couple months. High yields tend to be bad for higher-risk, high growth stocks because they make safer investments like bonds seem more attractive to investors by comparison.
A faster increase is more likely, Slimmon tells Fortune, because "The economy is stronger than what consensus believes. I think that we're going to accelerate faster than what consensus believes, and so I think we're going to surprise to the upside." Plus, with a fresh round of stimulus checks hitting Americans' bank accounts, he's estimating the 10-year yield could hit 2% by May, faster than many projections on the Street anticipate.
"I think the risk is rates are higher, sooner than what people think," he argues.
Slimmon's reasoning is that large, economically sensitive segments of the market, including the S&P 500, small caps, copper, and oil, are all trading higher today than they were pre-pandemic. "You have all these things that are saying, 'Hey, the economy is coming on.' The one exception [is] interest rates."
Indeed, yields are still lower than they were at the start of last year, even with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping to over 1.6% in recent weeks and spooking growth investors. "If we go to 2% by May, you're going to see growth go through another bout of real pain, and you're going to see further acceleration into this value trade," Slimmon argues. "I think the rotation will continue."
Slimmon is using the recent bounce in the Nasdaq (up 5.6% since March 8, despite a March 12 selloff) to trim holdings in tech and growth stocks, instead "looking at this rally as an opportunity to increase my exposure to value,” he says.
Among his preferred value-oriented areas: financials and materials.
Despite their recent strength, financials look particularly attractive to Slimmon compared to tech due to their low price-to-earnings ratios (the sector is trading at around 10 times earnings, per S&P Global data). Financials are also posting "better earnings revisions than some of the tech stocks," he says. "I think that's a more intriguing area right now."
That's not to say investors should bail out of tech full-stop. Slimmon suggests if rates rise in a "slow grind" to 2% by October or November, growth stocks should do well alongside the overall market. It "doesn't mean you shouldn't have a portion of your money in those stocks," he adds, but "just recognize that they are very, very volatile."
From a longer-term perspective, however, he's also eyeing "higher quality" dividend-paying defensive stocks that could pose an attractive opportunity over the next couple years if rates continue to climb. (Which they will, according to Slimmon, who thinks we could end 2021 with yields at 2.5%.)
Those sectors, like health care and consumer staples, have "really lagged for a while now," notes Slimmon. Though he's not aiming to overweight stocks in the low-risk areas, "When the Fed says, 'Okay we're raising rates,' and value starts to peter out, I'm not sure it's going to be back to growth," he argues. "I think it's going to be the safety trade."
