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股市噩梦来袭:若利率上行,到2028年标普可能都无利可图

股市噩梦来袭:若利率上行,到2028年标普可能都无利可图

Shawn Tully 2021年02月20日
利率不会一直维持在目前的极低水平,一旦上涨,可能令投资标普500无利可图。

乐观的投资者正在撒一个弥天大谎:当前的股价是合理的,因为利率将永远维持在超低水平。放弃这种幻想吧,因为他们的理由站不住脚。我们只是在重演当债券收益率超低时的情形。利率会上涨,股市会大幅下跌,未来几年投资大盘股能够获得微薄收益都算是幸运。

沃伦•巴菲特经常谈论利率对股票市场的影响。对投资者而言,重要的并不是他们从股票中获得的总收益,而是大盘股的收益率与持有国债带来的相对安全的收益率之间的差距。10年期国债的收益率越低,投资者和基金经理就越愿意为标普500指数基金以及或多或少与指数挂钩的蓝筹股投资组合支付更高的价格。

2月12日,乐观的投资者将标普500指数推至新高,收于3945点。他们坚定地认为,今天的超低利率证明目前过高甚至进入泡沫区间的市场估值是合理的。他们认为,只要将这些超低收益折算成未来收益即可。你会发现,你为获取每一美元收益投入的资金都是有道理的,尽管你要为之付出很高的成本,而且它甚至为标普指数留出了继续上涨的空间。

乐观投资者的主张中包含了一种有问题的假设:至少60年以来前所未有的超低利率将长期维持下去。投资者认为,股票之所以有较高的估值,是因为股票依旧比债券更有投资价值。但这种观点并不准确,除非你假设通胀调整后的“实际”债券收益率依旧会长期维持在今天的负区间。这种情况以前没有,以后也不会发生。简而言之,未来应该根据预测利率而不是当下的利率将收益进行折现。华尔街宁愿相信,10年期国债的收益落后于通胀是新常态。但事实并非如此。

目前,按照截至2020年第四季度的过去四个季度的每股收益,标普500指数的市盈率倍数为40。这个极高的市盈率倍数具有欺骗性,因为它体现的是新冠肺炎疫情导致的2020年年中的严重下跌。美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预测,美国GDP将在2021年年中恢复到疫情之前的增长速度。所以,我们预测在国民收入恢复正常后,每股收益也会随之反弹。2019年年底的每股收益为139.47美元。

按照“正常化”数据来计算,标普500指数的市盈率倍数为28.3(3945点除以139.47美元)。因此,标普500指数的净收益率,即你可能获得的股息和价格上涨比率,为3.53%。再加上2%的通货膨胀率,只要市盈率倍数维持在28左右,年收益率就有望达到5.53%。收益率分为两部分:股息收益率为1.58%,而通过收益再投资产生的收益增长率约为4%。

这样的数字虽然听起来无法令人满意,但已经好于实际情况,因为10年期国债的收益率只有1.09%。我们将计算通胀调整后的数字,因为市盈率倍数取决于“实际”收益率。目前的通货膨胀率为1.65%,这意味着长期债券收益率为-0.56%。难怪债券看上去毫无吸引力。这样的收益甚至不足以支付商场超市上涨的物价。但对债券不利的因素却有利于股票。经过通胀调整后的股票收益率比债券高出4%。这意味着,股票的实际预期收益率3.53%比长期债券收益率-0.56%高出4%以上。从历史数据来看,4%是相当大的差距。

但如果债券价格维持在超低水平,而且股票市盈率倍数依旧是较高的28,投资者的实际年收益率就只有3.53%。除非你假设未来将长期执行今天的负实际利率,否则你很难甚至根本无法证明今天的估值是合理的。如果长期维持负实际利率,对未来收益就将继续采用极低的贴现率,并且当下的股价依旧是可以接受的。

但历史事实和国会预算办公室最近的预测都告诉我们:利率不会一直维持在目前的极低水平。这在短期内不可能发生。但国会预算办公室预测的2026年长期债券收益率约为2.1%,到2028年上涨到约3.0%,至2031年达到3.5%左右。

假设在七年后的2028年年初,投资者希望将股票收益率与债券收益率的差距维持在4%。国会预算办公室预测此时的通胀率为2.1%。因此,“实际”收益率将从-0.56%上涨到0.9%。将0.9%与4%相加得出股票收益率4.9%。4.9%代表未来通胀调整后的股票收益率。因此,股票收益率需要从今天的3.53%上涨至4.9%。只有市盈率倍数下降到20.4,实际收益率才能够达到4.9%。所以,在标普500指数投资100美元,可以获得4.90美元收益(加上通货膨胀2.00美元)。

假设投资者在这七年内不出售任何股票。在此期间,年平均股息收益率为1.8%。但如果市盈率倍数从28.3下降到20.4,接近8个点的降幅使投资者只能获得微不足道的回报。投资组合的价值几乎与今天的股票价值相当。你的总收益只有1.8%的股息收入。押注标普指数意味着赶不上通货膨胀的上涨速度。购买股票的最佳时机是利率超高而市盈率倍数极低的情景。

但今天的情况却截然相反。所以,还是疫情时期人们常说的那句话:要相信科学。还有,放弃幻想吧。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

乐观的投资者正在撒一个弥天大谎:当前的股价是合理的,因为利率将永远维持在超低水平。放弃这种幻想吧,因为他们的理由站不住脚。我们只是在重演当债券收益率超低时的情形。利率会上涨,股市会大幅下跌,未来几年投资大盘股能够获得微薄收益都算是幸运。

沃伦•巴菲特经常谈论利率对股票市场的影响。对投资者而言,重要的并不是他们从股票中获得的总收益,而是大盘股的收益率与持有国债带来的相对安全的收益率之间的差距。10年期国债的收益率越低,投资者和基金经理就越愿意为标普500指数基金以及或多或少与指数挂钩的蓝筹股投资组合支付更高的价格。

2月12日,乐观的投资者将标普500指数推至新高,收于3945点。他们坚定地认为,今天的超低利率证明目前过高甚至进入泡沫区间的市场估值是合理的。他们认为,只要将这些超低收益折算成未来收益即可。你会发现,你为获取每一美元收益投入的资金都是有道理的,尽管你要为之付出很高的成本,而且它甚至为标普指数留出了继续上涨的空间。

乐观投资者的主张中包含了一种有问题的假设:至少60年以来前所未有的超低利率将长期维持下去。投资者认为,股票之所以有较高的估值,是因为股票依旧比债券更有投资价值。但这种观点并不准确,除非你假设通胀调整后的“实际”债券收益率依旧会长期维持在今天的负区间。这种情况以前没有,以后也不会发生。简而言之,未来应该根据预测利率而不是当下的利率将收益进行折现。华尔街宁愿相信,10年期国债的收益落后于通胀是新常态。但事实并非如此。

目前,按照截至2020年第四季度的过去四个季度的每股收益,标普500指数的市盈率倍数为40。这个极高的市盈率倍数具有欺骗性,因为它体现的是新冠肺炎疫情导致的2020年年中的严重下跌。美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预测,美国GDP将在2021年年中恢复到疫情之前的增长速度。所以,我们预测在国民收入恢复正常后,每股收益也会随之反弹。2019年年底的每股收益为139.47美元。

按照“正常化”数据来计算,标普500指数的市盈率倍数为28.3(3945点除以139.47美元)。因此,标普500指数的净收益率,即你可能获得的股息和价格上涨比率,为3.53%。再加上2%的通货膨胀率,只要市盈率倍数维持在28左右,年收益率就有望达到5.53%。收益率分为两部分:股息收益率为1.58%,而通过收益再投资产生的收益增长率约为4%。

这样的数字虽然听起来无法令人满意,但已经好于实际情况,因为10年期国债的收益率只有1.09%。我们将计算通胀调整后的数字,因为市盈率倍数取决于“实际”收益率。目前的通货膨胀率为1.65%,这意味着长期债券收益率为-0.56%。难怪债券看上去毫无吸引力。这样的收益甚至不足以支付商场超市上涨的物价。但对债券不利的因素却有利于股票。经过通胀调整后的股票收益率比债券高出4%。这意味着,股票的实际预期收益率3.53%比长期债券收益率-0.56%高出4%以上。从历史数据来看,4%是相当大的差距。

但如果债券价格维持在超低水平,而且股票市盈率倍数依旧是较高的28,投资者的实际年收益率就只有3.53%。除非你假设未来将长期执行今天的负实际利率,否则你很难甚至根本无法证明今天的估值是合理的。如果长期维持负实际利率,对未来收益就将继续采用极低的贴现率,并且当下的股价依旧是可以接受的。

但历史事实和国会预算办公室最近的预测都告诉我们:利率不会一直维持在目前的极低水平。这在短期内不可能发生。但国会预算办公室预测的2026年长期债券收益率约为2.1%,到2028年上涨到约3.0%,至2031年达到3.5%左右。

假设在七年后的2028年年初,投资者希望将股票收益率与债券收益率的差距维持在4%。国会预算办公室预测此时的通胀率为2.1%。因此,“实际”收益率将从-0.56%上涨到0.9%。将0.9%与4%相加得出股票收益率4.9%。4.9%代表未来通胀调整后的股票收益率。因此,股票收益率需要从今天的3.53%上涨至4.9%。只有市盈率倍数下降到20.4,实际收益率才能够达到4.9%。所以,在标普500指数投资100美元,可以获得4.90美元收益(加上通货膨胀2.00美元)。

假设投资者在这七年内不出售任何股票。在此期间,年平均股息收益率为1.8%。但如果市盈率倍数从28.3下降到20.4,接近8个点的降幅使投资者只能获得微不足道的回报。投资组合的价值几乎与今天的股票价值相当。你的总收益只有1.8%的股息收入。押注标普指数意味着赶不上通货膨胀的上涨速度。购买股票的最佳时机是利率超高而市盈率倍数极低的情景。

但今天的情况却截然相反。所以,还是疫情时期人们常说的那句话:要相信科学。还有,放弃幻想吧。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The bulls are making a whopper of a claim: that stock prices are reasonable because rates will stay incredibly low forever. Discard that fantasy, and their rationale collapses. We’re in for a replay of what always happens when bond yields become super-slender. Rates will rise, and equities will languish so badly that on big caps, you’ll be lucky to pocket piddling returns in the years ahead.

Warren Buffett often talks about how interest rates exert a gravitational pull on stocks. What matters to investors isn’t the so much the total return they get from equities; it’s the margin on what, say, big-cap stocks offer over the relative safety of holding Treasuries. The less the 10-year is yielding, the higher the price folks and money managers are willing to pay for an S&P 500 index fund, or a blue-chip portfolio that more or less tracks the index.

The bulls who pushed the S&P 500 to a record close of 3945 on Feb. 12 swear that today’s incredibly low rates justify valuations that look overly stretched, if not hovering in bubble territory. Just discount back future earnings incorporating these super-low yields, they argue. You’ll find that the dollars you’re paying for each dollar in profits, though it looks high, makes sense, and even leaves air space for the S&P to push higher.

The optimists’ manifesto contains a faulty assumption: That by far the lowest rates in at least 60 years are here to stay. The idea is that stocks can stay this expensive because they’ll remain so much better than bonds. But that’s only true if you posit that “real” yields, adjusted for inflation, remain in today’s negative territory pretty much forever. It’s never happened before and won’t happen going forward. Put simply, earnings should be discounted back not depending on today’s rates, but projected rates going forward. Wall Street would rather believe that a 10-year Treasury paying less than inflation is the new normal. It’s not.

Right now, the P/E multiple for the S&P 500, based on the past four quarters of EPS through Q4 of 2020, stands at 40. That’s deceivingly high, reflecting the severe drop in mid-2020 caused by the COVID crisis. The Congressional Budget Office projects that U.S. GDP will regain its pre-pandemic reading in mid-2021. So let’s predict that when national income returns to that norm, so do profits, which stood at $139.47 per share at the close of 2019.

Using that “normalized” number, the S&P is selling at a P/E of 28.3 (3945 divided by $139.47). Hence, the S&P earnings yield, the dollars you can expect to pocket in dividends and price appreciation, is 3.53%. Add 2% inflation, and you can expect to garner 5.53% a year, so long as the P/E holds constant at around 28. That return comes in two buckets: the dividend yield of 1.58%, and earnings growth, courtesy of plowed-back profits, of nearly 4%.

That number doesn’t sound great. But it’s better than it looks, because the yield on the 10-year Treasury is just 1.09%. We’ll do the calculations adjusted for inflation, since it’s the “real” numbers that set P/E multiples. Inflation is now running at 1.65%, meaning the long bond yield is a negative 0.56%. No wonder bonds appear so unattractive. They don’t even keep you whole with prices at the mall and supermarket. But what makes bonds look bad makes stocks look better. Stocks are beating bonds, adjusted for inflation, by 4%. That is, the 3.53% real expected return exceeds the long bond yield that’s 0.56% underwater by just over 4%. Based on history, that 4% is a pretty good margin.

But you only keep logging those 3.53% (real) yearly returns if bonds stay incredibly cheap and the P/E remains at a lofty 28. It’s hard if not impossible to justify today’s valuations unless you assume that today’s negative real rates are permanent. If that’s the case, then the discount rate applied to future profits will remain extraordinarily low, and today’s stock prices look just fine.

But rates won’t remain at today’s bargain levels. That’s what both history and the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent forecast tell us. It won’t happen for a while. But the CBO projects a long bond yield of around 2.1% in 2026, rising to roughly 3.0% in 2028, and into the mid-3s by 2031.

Let’s assume investors will want to keep that 4% edge over bonds seven years from now, in early 2028. The CBO predicts inflation will be running at 2.1%. Hence, the “real” yield will jump from minus 0.56% to plus 0.9%. Add that number to the 4% margin, and you get 4.9%. That 4.9% is what stocks can be expected to pay you in the future, adjusted for inflation. Hence, the earnings yield would need to go from today’s 3.53% to 4.9%. And the real earnings yield can only be 4.9% if the P/E drops to 20.4. Then you’d be getting $4.90 (plus inflation of, say, $2.00) for every $100 you invest in the S&P 500.

We’ll assume you don’t sell any stock over those seven years. During that period, you’d get an annual average of 1.8% from dividends. But the almost eight-point drop in multiple from 28.3 to 20.4 would leave you with a minuscule return. The value of your portfolio would be almost exactly where it is today. Your total return would be that 1.8% from dividends. Betting on the S&P means losing to inflation. The best time to buy stocks is when rates are extremely high and P/Es are in the dumps.

Today’s scenario is the exact opposite. So, as they say in the COVID era, follow the science. And forget the fantasy.

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