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四项指标显示,股市估值目前已高估33%

四项指标显示,股市估值目前已高估33%

Shawn Tully 2021-02-10
如今股价已极其昂贵,预示着末日可能即将到来。

套用投资传奇人物杰里米•格兰瑟姆的话说,牛市的末尾总是最疯狂。如今股价已极其昂贵,预示着末日可能即将到来。

截至2月5日的一周内,标普500指数似乎迎来了另一轮强劲上涨。截至上周五收盘,指数上涨4.7%,创下3887点的记录。华尔街银行几乎一致预测将继续上涨。高盛预计到年底还能上涨10.6%,达到4300点。很明显,跳上一列动力不但不减弱还持续加速的火车对人们很有诱惑力。

然而,投资者应该考虑,如果按照标准指标判断股价只从看似过高转向中等价位,损失会多大。数字庞大而可怕。

我们看看判断衡量股票是便宜还是定价过高的四种市盈率指标。相关指标都可以用来判断投资者为每一美元收益支付的价格。不同之处在于如何才能更准确地判断收益水平。

当前市盈率

先从标准普尔当前市盈率开始看,截至去年12月的四个季度里,根据美国公认会计准则每股净收益96.45美元计算,市盈率为40.3倍。分析师对四季度的预测已包括在内,因为标普公布最新数据时,只有一半成员公布了最新数据。市盈率倍数很高,但意义不大。因为疫情危机导致年中收益暴跌,从而人为抬高了倍数。

疫情前市盈率

那么,哪项标准更准确?我建议三个。第一个是基于疫情前大盘股的市盈率。可以说当时的收益水平比较“正常”。现在国会预算办公室预测美国人收入将在2021年年中恢复到2019年水平,假定收益将恢复到疫情前的水平没什么问题。2019年底,标普每股收益曾达到139.47美元的历史高点。如果今年某个时候收益水平真能重新达到峰值,比较靠谱的市盈率水平是28倍(标普目前的“价格”为3887除以139.47美元收益)。

收益想反弹到每股近140美元将比较艰难。即便如此,为每一美元收益支付28美元仍然非常昂贵。28倍的市盈率比2009年暴跌以来最高水平还高出15%,而2009年暴跌曾导致收益大幅减少(跟当今现象一样,市盈率也随之膨胀)。2016年9月曾达到24.34美元的峰值。

席勒市盈率

但每股139.47美元真适合作为收益的基准吗?根据第三个标准,由耶鲁大学经济学家罗伯特•希勒提出著名的周期调整市盈率或CAPE,其实并不适合。收益水平并不稳定。而且股价飞涨时,市盈率看起来人为压低,而当市盈率暂时低迷时,标普指数看起来比较适合买入,实际上并非如此。为了纠正波动,希勒并非使用过去12个月的收益,而是10年平均值,并根据通胀进行了调整。

根据席勒市盈率公式,疫情之前的收益与历史相比异常高,原因可能是已根据对GDP或收入比例等更正常的数据调整。当前席勒市盈率里收益为109美元。因此,希勒市盈率(3887除以109美元)为35.7倍。2000年科技崩溃之前,历史上只出现过一次如此高的水平。每次只要接近类似高点,紧随其后就是迅速抛售。

调整后的席勒市盈率

要计算股票可能下跌多少,最好调整一下席勒市盈率。因为该指标使用“真实”或者说通货膨胀调整后的收益。投资者入袋的收益随着整体价格上涨而增长,因为持股公司出售的汽车和日用品价格每年上涨。如果算上通货膨胀,平均10年收益会高出7.5%到10%。我们将选择对多头更有利的10%。

增长10%之后,席勒市盈率计算的收益就能达到120美元。如果美国人收入恢复到疫情前的水平,收益达到该水平的可能性比较大。应该使用多少倍市盈率?1990年以来,标普指数平均市盈率为21.8倍,远高于1950年以来的17.1倍,但由于低于20倍市盈率已持续很长一段时间,至少有理由预期市盈率会保持,虽然回归至之前的市盈率意味着风险。

如果收益调整为120美元,倍数为21.8,标普将在2620点左右卖出。该点位比今天创纪录的3887点低1270点,低了33%。相关数据显示,多元化一篮子大盘股存在下跌三分之一的风险。请记住,2020年3月标普指数曾暴跌至2237点,比我算出的公允价值低了近400点。

多头可以认为今年收益将跃升至2019年的最高水平,指数继续飙升。 但论据没什么力度。 收益从未如此飞涨。不断攀升高峰的股票越多,下跌的可能性就越大。如果您的资产配置里全是股票,一旦出现崩溃投资组合价值可能跌去三分之一,而华尔街专业人士还在鼓吹只会继续增长。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

套用投资传奇人物杰里米•格兰瑟姆的话说,牛市的末尾总是最疯狂。如今股价已极其昂贵,预示着末日可能即将到来。

截至2月5日的一周内,标普500指数似乎迎来了另一轮强劲上涨。截至上周五收盘,指数上涨4.7%,创下3887点的记录。华尔街银行几乎一致预测将继续上涨。高盛预计到年底还能上涨10.6%,达到4300点。很明显,跳上一列动力不但不减弱还持续加速的火车对人们很有诱惑力。

然而,投资者应该考虑,如果按照标准指标判断股价只从看似过高转向中等价位,损失会多大。数字庞大而可怕。

我们看看判断衡量股票是便宜还是定价过高的四种市盈率指标。相关指标都可以用来判断投资者为每一美元收益支付的价格。不同之处在于如何才能更准确地判断收益水平。

当前市盈率

先从标准普尔当前市盈率开始看,截至去年12月的四个季度里,根据美国公认会计准则每股净收益96.45美元计算,市盈率为40.3倍。分析师对四季度的预测已包括在内,因为标普公布最新数据时,只有一半成员公布了最新数据。市盈率倍数很高,但意义不大。因为疫情危机导致年中收益暴跌,从而人为抬高了倍数。

疫情前市盈率

那么,哪项标准更准确?我建议三个。第一个是基于疫情前大盘股的市盈率。可以说当时的收益水平比较“正常”。现在国会预算办公室预测美国人收入将在2021年年中恢复到2019年水平,假定收益将恢复到疫情前的水平没什么问题。2019年底,标普每股收益曾达到139.47美元的历史高点。如果今年某个时候收益水平真能重新达到峰值,比较靠谱的市盈率水平是28倍(标普目前的“价格”为3887除以139.47美元收益)。

收益想反弹到每股近140美元将比较艰难。即便如此,为每一美元收益支付28美元仍然非常昂贵。28倍的市盈率比2009年暴跌以来最高水平还高出15%,而2009年暴跌曾导致收益大幅减少(跟当今现象一样,市盈率也随之膨胀)。2016年9月曾达到24.34美元的峰值。

席勒市盈率

但每股139.47美元真适合作为收益的基准吗?根据第三个标准,由耶鲁大学经济学家罗伯特•希勒提出著名的周期调整市盈率或CAPE,其实并不适合。收益水平并不稳定。而且股价飞涨时,市盈率看起来人为压低,而当市盈率暂时低迷时,标普指数看起来比较适合买入,实际上并非如此。为了纠正波动,希勒并非使用过去12个月的收益,而是10年平均值,并根据通胀进行了调整。

根据席勒市盈率公式,疫情之前的收益与历史相比异常高,原因可能是已根据对GDP或收入比例等更正常的数据调整。当前席勒市盈率里收益为109美元。因此,希勒市盈率(3887除以109美元)为35.7倍。2000年科技崩溃之前,历史上只出现过一次如此高的水平。每次只要接近类似高点,紧随其后就是迅速抛售。

调整后的席勒市盈率

要计算股票可能下跌多少,最好调整一下席勒市盈率。因为该指标使用“真实”或者说通货膨胀调整后的收益。投资者入袋的收益随着整体价格上涨而增长,因为持股公司出售的汽车和日用品价格每年上涨。如果算上通货膨胀,平均10年收益会高出7.5%到10%。我们将选择对多头更有利的10%。

增长10%之后,席勒市盈率计算的收益就能达到120美元。如果美国人收入恢复到疫情前的水平,收益达到该水平的可能性比较大。应该使用多少倍市盈率?1990年以来,标普指数平均市盈率为21.8倍,远高于1950年以来的17.1倍,但由于低于20倍市盈率已持续很长一段时间,至少有理由预期市盈率会保持,虽然回归至之前的市盈率意味着风险。

如果收益调整为120美元,倍数为21.8,标普将在2620点左右卖出。该点位比今天创纪录的3887点低1270点,低了33%。相关数据显示,多元化一篮子大盘股存在下跌三分之一的风险。请记住,2020年3月标普指数曾暴跌至2237点,比我算出的公允价值低了近400点。

多头可以认为今年收益将跃升至2019年的最高水平,指数继续飙升。 但论据没什么力度。 收益从未如此飞涨。不断攀升高峰的股票越多,下跌的可能性就越大。如果您的资产配置里全是股票,一旦出现崩溃投资组合价值可能跌去三分之一,而华尔街专业人士还在鼓吹只会继续增长。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

To paraphrase investment legend Jeremy Grantham, bull markets get craziest in their final leg. The surge we're now witnessing from already superexpensive heights signals that the end may be near.

The S&P 500 looks headed for another gangbusters performance for the week ending Feb. 5. By the close on Friday, the index had risen 4.7% to notch still another record at 3887. Wall Street banks almost universally predict the good times to keep rolling; Goldman Sachs foresees another 10.6% jump to 4300 by year-end. Obviously, it's tempting to jump on a train whose momentum not only refuses to flag, but keeps building.

Investors, however, should consider how much they have to lose if, by the standard metrics, stock prices simply shift from what appear to be excessively pricey levels to just moderately pricey. It's a big, scary number.

Let's look at four versions of the price/earnings multiple used to measure whether stocks are a bargain or overpriced. They're all measures of what investors pay for each dollar in earnings. What varies is how best to measure earnings.

Current P/E

We'll start with the S&P's current P/E. Right now, it's 40.3 based on $96.45 in GAAP net earnings per share over the past four quarters ended in December; I'm including the analysts’ estimates for Q4, since only half the members had reported when S&P posted its most recent data. That multiple is huge, but it's not terribly relevant. It's artificially inflated by the midyear collapse in profits driven by the COVID crisis.

P/E before COVID

So what's a better measure? I'll suggest three. The first is the P/E based on what the big-caps were earning before the cataclysm. You could argue that those are "normalized" earnings. Since the Congressional Budget Office now predicts that national income will regain 2019 levels in mid-2021, it's not daft to posit that profits will return to where they left off before the deluge. At the close of 2019, S&P EPS stood at an all-time high of $139.47. If profit indeed rescales those peaks sometime this year, a reliable P/E would be 28 (the S&P's current "price" of 3887 divided by earnings of $139.47).

Getting back to almost $140 per share would be a steep, hard climb. Even so, paying $28 for each dollar in profits is really, really expensive. A 28 P/E is 15% above the highest reading since the 2009 crash that decimated profits (and inflated P/Es, as we're witnessing today). That was the peak of $24.34 posted in September of 2016.

CAPE

But is $139.47 per share really the right benchmark for profits? Not according to our third yardstick, the famous cyclically adjusted price/earnings multiple, or CAPE, developed by the great Yale economist Robert Shiller. Earnings follow an erratic course. In years where they're flying high, they make P/Es look artificially low, and when they're temporarily depressed, the S&P looks like a bargain, but really isn't. To correct for those swings, Shiller uses not the last 12-month earnings, but a 10-year average, adjusted for inflation.

The CAPE formula shows that pre-COVID earnings were unusually high versus history, and therefore probably due to reset at more normal levels, as measured, for example, as a share of GDP or revenues. Today, CAPE earnings measure $109. Hence, Shiller's P/E (3887 over $109) is 35.7. It has been that lofty only once in history, prior to the tech collapse in 2000. Every time it has even approached those heights, a steep selloff followed.

Adjusted CAPE

To calculate how much stocks could fall, it's best to adjust the CAPE. That's because it uses "real," or inflation adjusted, profits. The earnings investors put in their pockets grow with overall prices, because the companies whose stocks they own are selling their cars and groceries at prices that rise each year. On average over 10 years, profits would be 7.5% to 10% higher if inflation were included. We'll pick the 10% that's more favorable to the bulls.

Add 10%, and CAPE profits come to $120. That's a good estimate for where earnings will settle once national income returns to its pre-pandemic plateau. What P/E should apply? Since 1990, the S&P multiple has averaged 21.8. That's far higher than the 17.1 reading since 1950, but since low-20s P/Es have lasted a long time, it's at least reasonable to expect them to remain in that range, though a return to earlier norms is a risk.

If earnings reset at $120, and the multiple is 21.8, the S&P would sell at around 2620. That is 1270 points, or 33%, below today's record 3887. The numbers show a significant risk that a diversified basket of big-cap stocks could drop by one-third. Keep in mind that in March, the S&P cratered to 2237, almost 400 points below my best estimate of its fair value.

The bulls have a point in arguing that earnings will jump way beyond the 2019 record this year, and soar from there. But it's not a strong argument. Earnings have never grown to the sky before. The more stock prices keep spiking from towering to more towering peaks, the more likely they are to tumble. If you're fully invested in stocks, the crash could cost you a third of the portfolio that the Wall Street pros are saying can only grow from here.

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