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被散户暴虐的华尔街,怎么看待GameStop?

被散户暴虐的华尔街,怎么看待GameStop?

Aaron Pressman 2021-02-01
几名分析师对该股有截然不同的观点。

1月25日,特尔西咨询集团(Telsey Advisory Group)的分析师乔•费尔德曼发布了一份关于电子游戏零售商GameStop的“诡异”报告——这家在退市边缘苦苦挣扎的公司,股价突然飙升到了“天文数字”。

费尔德曼将GameStop的目标股价提高了50%,至33美元,在正常情况下,这一做法意味着分析师强大的背书。但与此同时,他也将把该股的评级从“强于大盘”下调为“逊于大盘”,相当于其他咨询公司的“卖出”评级。

面对GameStop突如其来的疯涨,华尔街分析师正全力应对,费尔德曼只是之一。过去两年,GameStop的业务基本面可谓惨淡:销售下滑,净亏损上升。总之,和“股价暴涨”这几个字眼几乎毫无关联。实际上,GameStop股价的异动飙升来自Reddit论坛中“华尔街赌注”(WallStreetBets)成员们的爆买。

在2020年的大部分时间里,GameStop的股价都维持在个位数,11月和12月曾经稳步上涨,而在今年1月的头几周,股价骤然翻了四番。1月25日,当特尔西公司敦促投资者离场时,该股股价达到159美元,几天后,股价涨至近500美元,互联网券商罗宾汉(Robinhood)限制交易,用户暂停购入更多股票,导致了更大的波动。这一场有组织的计谋,导致几家卖空GameStop的对冲基金蒙受巨额损失。

1月29日中午,GameStop的股价约为每股333美元,公司市值达到了230亿美元。

费尔德曼从去年9月起就看涨GameStop。当时,一家激进的投资基金正推动变革,微软(Microsoft)和索尼(Sony)的新一代游戏机带来一波消费狂热,GameStop也将从中获益。

但费尔德曼写道,在Reddit“赌徒”们的助推下,GameStop的股价水平“远远超过了我们的高基本预期和新游戏周期的多年收益预期”。

“我们认为,GameStop目前的股价和估值水平是不可持续的。在基本面因素的推动下,股价将回归到更正常、更合理的估值水平。”他说。

1月28日,贝尔德股票研究公司(Baird Equity Research)的分析师科林•塞巴斯蒂安发布了一份新报告,报告中他未将GameStop评级从“中性”下调,但他对该股设定的目标价为13美元,比当时的真实股价低了95%左右。

不过,塞巴斯蒂安也表示,如果GameStop转向主要在网上销售游戏、着手举办游戏锦标赛、继续二手游戏设备的销售并关闭大部分实体店,公司可能会迎来繁荣。

在他看来,GameStop成功实现这一转变的可能性不大,但他表示,仍然有可能会将GameStop的目标股价提升至20美元。

他写道:“我们在持续评估GameStop线上、线下混合模式的长期潜力时,一直认为该公司的结构性风险很大。可以说,近期该股票的表现至少有一部分已经脱离了基本面。因此,我们维持中性评级。”

GameStop于1月11日发布了其最新财务披露报告,报告显示,2020年最后九周的销售额下降了3%,至17.7亿美元。当时,GameStop的股价在17美元至20美元之间徘徊。而此后,其他几位关注GameStop的分析师一直没有发布过新的报告。

Jefferies公司的分析师斯蒂芬妮•威辛克在1月11日的报告中将该股评级为“持有”,目标股价设定为15美元。她写道,对GameStop来说,“可取的选择”应该是转型以销售更多数字游戏,并在这一“豪掷数十亿美元来获取、激活用户粘性的市场”中,挖掘其忠实用户基础。

Wedbush的分析师迈克尔•帕切特在1月11日的报告中对GameStop的评级为“中性”,目标股价设定为16美元。尽管评级不高,帕切特仍然写道,他对该股持“积极态度”,称赞GameStop在维护实体店的同时扩大网上销售的战略——一种被称为“全渠道营销”的零售战略。

他表示:“我们认为,GameStop能够适当削减人工门店数量,通过其全渠道产品来弥补销售额的损失。此外,伴随着经济大衰退,对现金置换的需求比以往任何时候都要大,我们预计GameStop的二手业务将依托这一环境蓬勃发展。”(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

1月25日,特尔西咨询集团(Telsey Advisory Group)的分析师乔•费尔德曼发布了一份关于电子游戏零售商GameStop的“诡异”报告——这家在退市边缘苦苦挣扎的公司,股价突然飙升到了“天文数字”。

费尔德曼将GameStop的目标股价提高了50%,至33美元,在正常情况下,这一做法意味着分析师强大的背书。但与此同时,他也将把该股的评级从“强于大盘”下调为“逊于大盘”,相当于其他咨询公司的“卖出”评级。

面对GameStop突如其来的疯涨,华尔街分析师正全力应对,费尔德曼只是之一。过去两年,GameStop的业务基本面可谓惨淡:销售下滑,净亏损上升。总之,和“股价暴涨”这几个字眼几乎毫无关联。实际上,GameStop股价的异动飙升来自Reddit论坛中“华尔街赌注”(WallStreetBets)成员们的爆买。

在2020年的大部分时间里,GameStop的股价都维持在个位数,11月和12月曾经稳步上涨,而在今年1月的头几周,股价骤然翻了四番。1月25日,当特尔西公司敦促投资者离场时,该股股价达到159美元,几天后,股价涨至近500美元,互联网券商罗宾汉(Robinhood)限制交易,用户暂停购入更多股票,导致了更大的波动。这一场有组织的计谋,导致几家卖空GameStop的对冲基金蒙受巨额损失。

1月29日中午,GameStop的股价约为每股333美元,公司市值达到了230亿美元。

费尔德曼从去年9月起就看涨GameStop。当时,一家激进的投资基金正推动变革,微软(Microsoft)和索尼(Sony)的新一代游戏机带来一波消费狂热,GameStop也将从中获益。

但费尔德曼写道,在Reddit“赌徒”们的助推下,GameStop的股价水平“远远超过了我们的高基本预期和新游戏周期的多年收益预期”。

“我们认为,GameStop目前的股价和估值水平是不可持续的。在基本面因素的推动下,股价将回归到更正常、更合理的估值水平。”他说。

1月28日,贝尔德股票研究公司(Baird Equity Research)的分析师科林•塞巴斯蒂安发布了一份新报告,报告中他未将GameStop评级从“中性”下调,但他对该股设定的目标价为13美元,比当时的真实股价低了95%左右。

不过,塞巴斯蒂安也表示,如果GameStop转向主要在网上销售游戏、着手举办游戏锦标赛、继续二手游戏设备的销售并关闭大部分实体店,公司可能会迎来繁荣。

在他看来,GameStop成功实现这一转变的可能性不大,但他表示,仍然有可能会将GameStop的目标股价提升至20美元。

他写道:“我们在持续评估GameStop线上、线下混合模式的长期潜力时,一直认为该公司的结构性风险很大。可以说,近期该股票的表现至少有一部分已经脱离了基本面。因此,我们维持中性评级。”

GameStop于1月11日发布了其最新财务披露报告,报告显示,2020年最后九周的销售额下降了3%,至17.7亿美元。当时,GameStop的股价在17美元至20美元之间徘徊。而此后,其他几位关注GameStop的分析师一直没有发布过新的报告。

Jefferies公司的分析师斯蒂芬妮•威辛克在1月11日的报告中将该股评级为“持有”,目标股价设定为15美元。她写道,对GameStop来说,“可取的选择”应该是转型以销售更多数字游戏,并在这一“豪掷数十亿美元来获取、激活用户粘性的市场”中,挖掘其忠实用户基础。

Wedbush的分析师迈克尔•帕切特在1月11日的报告中对GameStop的评级为“中性”,目标股价设定为16美元。尽管评级不高,帕切特仍然写道,他对该股持“积极态度”,称赞GameStop在维护实体店的同时扩大网上销售的战略——一种被称为“全渠道营销”的零售战略。

他表示:“我们认为,GameStop能够适当削减人工门店数量,通过其全渠道产品来弥补销售额的损失。此外,伴随着经济大衰退,对现金置换的需求比以往任何时候都要大,我们预计GameStop的二手业务将依托这一环境蓬勃发展。”(财富中文网)

编译:杨二一

Joe Feldman, an analyst with Telsey Advisory Group, issued a strange report on January 25 about struggling video game retailer GameStop, whose shares have soared to astronomical levels.

He raised his target price for the company’s stock by 50% to $33, which in normal times would seem like a huge endorsement. But he also cut his rating for the stock from “outperform” to “underperform,” his firm’s equivalent of “sell.”

It’s just one of many odd examples of how Wall Street analysts are trying to deal with GameStop’s unusual run-up. The company’s business fundamentals—falling sales and net losses for the past two years—are nearly irrelevant to the rise in its stock, which has been fueled by members of the Reddit message board, WallStreetBets.

After spending most of 2020 in single digits, GameStop’s stock rose steadily in November and December before suddenly quadrupling in the opening weeks of January. As Telsey was urging investors to get out on January 25, the stock hit $159 and then a few days later was almost at $500 before a halt on customers of brokerage Robinhood from buying more shares led to even more volatility. The machinations have led to huge losses at a few hedge funds that had been betting against GameStop by shorting the stock.

At midday on January 29, GameStop’s shares were trading for about $333, giving the company a market value of $23 billion.

The Telsey analyst’s earlier bullish call on the stock, dating from September, came as an activist investment fund was pushing for change and the retail chain seemed poised to benefit from excitement over new generations of gaming consoles from Microsoft and Sony.

But the Reddit-driven price level “far exceeds our high fundamental expectations and projected multiyear benefits of the new gaming cycle,” Feldman wrote.

“We believe the current share price and valuation levels are not sustainable, and we expect the shares to return to a more normal/fair valuation driven by the fundamentals.”

At Baird Equity Research, analyst Colin Sebastian did not downgrade his rating on GameStop from “neutral” in a new report on January 28. But his target price of $13 was about 95% below the stock’s price at the time.

Still, Sebastian did say that GameStop could thrive if shifted to selling mostly games online, started holding gaming tournaments, continued selling used gaming gear, and closed most of its physical stores.

Though he gave low odds to GameStop successfully making such a transition, the analyst concluded he may raise his target for the stock to $20.

“While we continue to evaluate the long-term potential for GameStop’s hybrid online/offline model, and believe that structural risks remain abundant, we realize that near-term stock performance is at least partially detached from fundamentals, and thus maintain a Neutral rating,” he wrote.

Several other analysts who follow GameStop have not issued new reports since its most recent financial disclosure report on Jan. 11, when the stock was trading between $17 and $20 a share. At that time, the company said that sales for the final nine weeks of 2020 had declined 3% to $1.77 billion.

In her Jan. 11 report, Stephanie Wissink, an analyst at Jefferies, rated the stock a “hold” with a price target of $15. One “optimistic option” for GameStop would be if the company transitioned to selling more digital games and exploiting its loyal customer base “in a marketplace where billions of dollars are spent to acquire and activate engagement,” she wrote.

And Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush, rated GameStop “neutral” in his Jan. 11 report with a price target of $16. Still, Pachter wrote that he had a “positive bias” on the stock and praised the company’s strategy of expanding online sales alongside its stores, a retailing tactic known as omnichannel marketing.

“We think GameStop can manage its business with fewer stores staffed more conservatively, making up lost sales via its omnichannel offering,” he wrote. “Further, with a full-fledged recession underway, the need for trade-in currency is greater than ever, and we expect GameStop’s used business to thrive in this environment.”

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