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为什么Netflix的股价再次飙涨?

为什么Netflix的股价再次飙涨?

Aaron Pressman 2021年01月22日
真正推动Netflix股价飙升的,是这家公司的发展图景。

在联席首席执行官泰德•萨兰多斯的领导下,Netflix的付费用户数量已经突破2亿大关。图片来源:MATT WINKELMEYER/GETTY IMAGES

在Netflix创立之初,为了给内容创建团队加油鼓劲,联席首席执行官泰德•萨兰多斯经常引导他们展望未来。

“我过去总是激励内容团队大胆地畅想这项业务的潜在规模。我经常说,有朝一日,我们会做得很大,我们会有一位负责动漫板块的副总裁。”萨兰多斯本周回忆道,“而那一天就是现在。”

果不其然。Netflix在2020年聘请罗伯•佩雷达担任其动漫业务的首任负责人。动漫是一种起源于日本的动作卡通。

是的,“那一天就是现在。”这家公司在2020年年底实现了两个极具象征意义的里程碑。Netflix吸引了超过2亿付费用户。而且,在过去十年花费投资者数十亿美元来弥补巨额赤字之后,Netflix终于实现了财务自给自足,并由此成为一家踏上可持续发展之路的娱乐巨头。

和往常一样,华尔街关注的是非常具体的运营指标。他们在这个季度增加了多少订户?他们此前声称会增加多少订户?分析师对新增订户数量的预测中值是多少?(顺便说一下,答案分别是850万、600万和590万。)

但真正推动Netflix股价飙升的,是这家公司的发展图景。Netflix写给股东的季度财报信的第5页强调了(或者说隐藏着)这样一个信息:尽管公司在打造新节目方面投入了近200亿美元,但今年的现金流将转为正值。Netflix目前持有80亿美元的现金,这意味着“我们相信,我们不再需要为日常运营筹集外部资金。”由于现金非常充裕,这家公司甚至计划回购一些股票。要知道,自2011年以来,Netflix还从未采取过这样一种常见的股价支撑做法。即使那些连热播剧集《伯捷顿家族:名门韵事》(Bridgerton)一秒钟都没有看过的投资者也知道,这是个利好消息。

在1月20日上午的盘前交易中,市值已经超过5000亿美元的Netflix上涨了14%,其股价达到近574美元,距离历史高点仅差2美元。去年,作为疫情期间热门投资组合的领头羊,Netflix股价飙涨了67%。但2021年迄今为止,该股已经下跌了7%。

这封致股东信还呈现出另一个变化,它更多地体现在语气和方式上。Netflix向来以不公开收视率著称,甚至不愿意告诉明星和制片人他们的节目和电影表现如何。但现在,这家流媒体点播平台一反常态地分享了大量数据。乔治•克鲁尼执导的反乌托邦科幻惊悚片《午夜天空》(Midnight Sky)在上映前四周就吸引了7200万户家庭。由艾玛•罗伯茨主演、口碑不佳的度假电影《假日约会》(Holidate)吸引了6800万户家庭。在上映前四周,由奥马尔•塞主演的法国迷你剧《卢平》(Lupin)预计将赢得超过7000万户家庭的青睐——顺便透露一下,我们全家正在追看这部刚刚在本月上映的剧集。

太赞了!(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

在Netflix创立之初,为了给内容创建团队加油鼓劲,联席首席执行官泰德•萨兰多斯经常引导他们展望未来。

“我过去总是激励内容团队大胆地畅想这项业务的潜在规模。我经常说,有朝一日,我们会做得很大,我们会有一位负责动漫板块的副总裁。”萨兰多斯本周回忆道,“而那一天就是现在。”

果不其然。Netflix在2020年聘请罗伯•佩雷达担任其动漫业务的首任负责人。动漫是一种起源于日本的动作卡通。

是的,“那一天就是现在。”这家公司在2020年年底实现了两个极具象征意义的里程碑。Netflix吸引了超过2亿付费用户。而且,在过去十年花费投资者数十亿美元来弥补巨额赤字之后,Netflix终于实现了财务自给自足,并由此成为一家踏上可持续发展之路的娱乐巨头。

和往常一样,华尔街关注的是非常具体的运营指标。他们在这个季度增加了多少订户?他们此前声称会增加多少订户?分析师对新增订户数量的预测中值是多少?(顺便说一下,答案分别是850万、600万和590万。)

但真正推动Netflix股价飙升的,是这家公司的发展图景。Netflix写给股东的季度财报信的第5页强调了(或者说隐藏着)这样一个信息:尽管公司在打造新节目方面投入了近200亿美元,但今年的现金流将转为正值。Netflix目前持有80亿美元的现金,这意味着“我们相信,我们不再需要为日常运营筹集外部资金。”由于现金非常充裕,这家公司甚至计划回购一些股票。要知道,自2011年以来,Netflix还从未采取过这样一种常见的股价支撑做法。即使那些连热播剧集《伯捷顿家族:名门韵事》(Bridgerton)一秒钟都没有看过的投资者也知道,这是个利好消息。

在1月20日上午的盘前交易中,市值已经超过5000亿美元的Netflix上涨了14%,其股价达到近574美元,距离历史高点仅差2美元。去年,作为疫情期间热门投资组合的领头羊,Netflix股价飙涨了67%。但2021年迄今为止,该股已经下跌了7%。

这封致股东信还呈现出另一个变化,它更多地体现在语气和方式上。Netflix向来以不公开收视率著称,甚至不愿意告诉明星和制片人他们的节目和电影表现如何。但现在,这家流媒体点播平台一反常态地分享了大量数据。乔治•克鲁尼执导的反乌托邦科幻惊悚片《午夜天空》(Midnight Sky)在上映前四周就吸引了7200万户家庭。由艾玛•罗伯茨主演、口碑不佳的度假电影《假日约会》(Holidate)吸引了6800万户家庭。在上映前四周,由奥马尔•塞主演的法国迷你剧《卢平》(Lupin)预计将赢得超过7000万户家庭的青睐——顺便透露一下,我们全家正在追看这部刚刚在本月上映的剧集。

太赞了!(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

In the early days of Netflix, co-CEO Ted Sarandos used to buck up his team responsible for filling the service with content by looking to the future.

"I used to try to get the team to wrap their head around the potential scale of the business by saying things like, someday we'll be so big, we'll have a VP of anime," Sarandos recalled this week. "And then that someday is now."

It's true—Netflix hired Rob Pereyda last year as its first head of anime, the Japanese action cartoon genre.

And "that someday is now" as the company hit two huge milestones at the end of 2020. Netflix attracted more than 200 million paying subscribers. And, after spending billions and billions of other people's money to cover huge deficits for the past decade, Netflix has reached financial self-sufficiency and created a sustainable entertainment juggernaut.

Wall Street, as usual, focused on the small picture. How many subscribers did they add in the quarter versus how many did they say they would add versus how many did analysts predict on average they would add? (The answers, by the way, were 8.5 million, 6 million, and 5.9 million, respectively.)

But it was more the big picture that sent the stock zooming. Highlighted (or buried) on page 5 of Netflix's quarterly earnings letter to shareholders was the revelation that the company would be cash flow positive this year despite spending close to $20 billion on new programming. And with $8 billion in cash on hand, that means "we believe we no longer have a need to raise external financing for our day-to-day operations." Cash will be so plentiful that the company will even buy back some of its shares, a common price-supporting practice that Netflix hasn't done since 2011. Even investors who haven't watched a second of Bridgerton know that's a positive.

Netflix stock, already worth over $500 billion, gained 14% in premarket trading on January 20 morning to almost $574, within $2 of its all-time high. Although it jumped 67% last year as a leading member of the pandemic portfolio, the stock had previously lost 7% so far in 2021.

There was another change, more in tone and approach, highlighted in the shareholder letter. Netflix used to be known as the studio that wouldn't share viewership numbers and wouldn't tell even stars and producers how well their shows and movies performed. But now there's data galore. Midnight Sky, the George Clooney-directed dystopian sci-fi thriller, attracted 72 million households in its first four weeks. Less-well-reviewed holiday flick Holidate starring Emma Roberts drew 68 million households. And the new favorite in the Pressman household, the French miniseries Lupin starring Omar Sy released this month, is projected to exceed 70 million in its first four weeks.

C’est magnifique!

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