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欧佩克+成员国分歧不断,油价猛跌

欧佩克+成员国分歧不断,油价猛跌

Robert Tuttle, Alex Longley, 彭博社 2020-11-30
油价回弹给了那些更加不愿配合减产的欧佩克+成员国更充足的理由。

旨在讨论延长减产计划的关键政策会议召开前几天,欧佩克+(OPEC+)一些成员国之间的关系出现了裂缝,导致石油价格从8个月高点回落。

纽约原油期货价格下跌1.6%。上周,伊拉克副职领导指责欧佩克(OPEC),称该组织在要求成员国石油减产之前,应该考虑成员国的经济政治状况。欧佩克的主席在11月26日表示,内部数据表明,明年年初可能面临新一轮的石油过剩风险,因此该组织一定会谨慎行事。根据今年早些时候的一项协议,所削减的产量大部分已经恢复。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的保罗·霍斯耐尔在一篇文章中写道,尽管当前的减产计划有望延长,但最近油价回弹却让那些不愿配合减产的成员国有了筹码,包括伊拉克和阿联酋。由于美国正处于感恩节假期期间,11月26日的石油交易比较冷淡。

霍斯耐尔说:“全球接连传来新冠疫苗喜讯以及美国大选后的石油价格回弹对沙特阿拉伯及其主要石油政策盟友科威特来说,可谓喜忧参半。油价回弹给了那些更加不愿配合减产的欧佩克+成员国更充足的理由。”

新冠疫苗即将问世的喜讯提高了人们对明年能源需求迅速恢复的期望,本月石油价格上涨26%。然而,虽然有迹象表明亚洲的消费市场稳中向好,但欧洲消费情况仍然不容乐观。

11月25日,为遏制新冠病毒的传播,德国将局部封锁措施延长了至少三周的时间。油价大幅度上涨之后,同天的西得克萨斯轻质中间基原油(West Texas Intermediate)和布伦特(Brent)原油期货在结算时达到技术性超卖水准,这表明情况可能发生逆转。

本月原油价格的快速上涨加剧了欧佩克+成员国俄罗斯的担忧,如果美国的页岩油生产商恢复产量增长,将会破坏该组织为缓解供应过剩所做出的努力。一项对石油分析师、交易员和炼油商的调查显示,欧佩克+会将增产计划延迟三个月。

与此同时,挪威罢工事件可能会影响一些油气生产。如果这场持续已久的警卫罢工在上周末之前不能得到解决,那么该国的两个油田可能面临停产的命运。

本文由詹姆斯·桑希尔协助撰写。

翻译:郝秀

审校:汪皓

旨在讨论延长减产计划的关键政策会议召开前几天,欧佩克+(OPEC+)一些成员国之间的关系出现了裂缝,导致石油价格从8个月高点回落。

纽约原油期货价格下跌1.6%。上周,伊拉克副职领导指责欧佩克(OPEC),称该组织在要求成员国石油减产之前,应该考虑成员国的经济政治状况。欧佩克的主席在11月26日表示,内部数据表明,明年年初可能面临新一轮的石油过剩风险,因此该组织一定会谨慎行事。根据今年早些时候的一项协议,所削减的产量大部分已经恢复。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的保罗·霍斯耐尔在一篇文章中写道,尽管当前的减产计划有望延长,但最近油价回弹却让那些不愿配合减产的成员国有了筹码,包括伊拉克和阿联酋。由于美国正处于感恩节假期期间,11月26日的石油交易比较冷淡。

霍斯耐尔说:“全球接连传来新冠疫苗喜讯以及美国大选后的石油价格回弹对沙特阿拉伯及其主要石油政策盟友科威特来说,可谓喜忧参半。油价回弹给了那些更加不愿配合减产的欧佩克+成员国更充足的理由。”

新冠疫苗即将问世的喜讯提高了人们对明年能源需求迅速恢复的期望,本月石油价格上涨26%。然而,虽然有迹象表明亚洲的消费市场稳中向好,但欧洲消费情况仍然不容乐观。

11月25日,为遏制新冠病毒的传播,德国将局部封锁措施延长了至少三周的时间。油价大幅度上涨之后,同天的西得克萨斯轻质中间基原油(West Texas Intermediate)和布伦特(Brent)原油期货在结算时达到技术性超卖水准,这表明情况可能发生逆转。

本月原油价格的快速上涨加剧了欧佩克+成员国俄罗斯的担忧,如果美国的页岩油生产商恢复产量增长,将会破坏该组织为缓解供应过剩所做出的努力。一项对石油分析师、交易员和炼油商的调查显示,欧佩克+会将增产计划延迟三个月。

与此同时,挪威罢工事件可能会影响一些油气生产。如果这场持续已久的警卫罢工在上周末之前不能得到解决,那么该国的两个油田可能面临停产的命运。

本文由詹姆斯·桑希尔协助撰写。

翻译:郝秀

审校:汪皓

Oil fell from an eight-month high as cracks appear among some OPEC+ members days before a key policy meeting to discuss delaying the end of output curbs.

Futures fell 1.6% in New York. Iraq’s deputy leader criticized OPEC at last week, saying the economic and political conditions of member countries should be considered before they are asked to withhold production. OPEC’s president said on November 26 the group must remain cautious, with internal data pointing to the risk of a new oil surplus early next year. Most of the production that was cut under an agreement earlier this year has already been brought back.

While an extension of existing cuts is expected, the recent oil rally gives leverage to members reluctant to go along, including Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, Standard Chartered’s Paul Horsnell wrote in a note. Trading on November 26 was light due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

“The post-vaccine announcements and post-U.S. election oil price rally is a mixed blessing for Saudi Arabia and its main ally in oil policy, Kuwait,” Horsnell said. “The rally has increased special pleading from the more reluctant members of OPEC+.”

Oil has jumped 26% this month after signs that COVID-19 vaccines are imminent boosted expectations for a swift recovery in energy demand next year. However, while there are indications that Asian consumption remains healthy, Europe is still lagging.

On November 25, Germany extended a partial lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus for at least three more weeks. After a sharp rise in prices, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures settled technically overbought on November 25, a sign that a possible reversal had been on the cards.

Crude’s rapid price gains this month has added to OPEC+ member Russia’s concern that U.S. shale producers will be able to resume production growth, disrupting the group’s efforts to ease a supply glut. The group will delay an output increase by three months, according to a survey of oil analysts, traders and refiners.

In the meantime, a strike in Norway could threaten some oil and gas production. If a long running safety guard strike isn’t resolved before the weekend, two of the country’s fields may have to stop flows.

With assistance from James Thornhill.

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