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2021年快来了,投资者最大的风险与机遇是什么?

2021年快来了,投资者最大的风险与机遇是什么?

Matthew Heimer 2020年11月25日
专家们最关心的问题是,经济能否在2021年恢复至正常水平。

《财富》投资者圆桌论坛于本月召开,在此期间,受利好商业的大选结果和新冠疫苗积极消息影响,股市连创新高。如果经济能在2021年恢复至正常水平,与会嘉宾也期望能帮助自己的客户从经济复苏中获益。

不过他们也并非没有顾虑。在一场分裂的选举之后,中美之间、政治对手之间、各州之间的紧张关系都让不少与会嘉宾不敢过于乐观。也有人担心太过强劲的经济增长会带来副作用,比如经济过热往往会导致利率上升,进而影响股市的长期表现。

与会嘉宾包括美银美林美国股票与量化策略部门主管兼全球ESG研究主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼安、Ritholtz财富管理公司首席执行官乔希·布朗、美国基金界领军公司T.Rowe Price全球股票基金的负责人大卫·艾斯沃特、Causeway Capital首席执行官兼基本面投资组合经理萨拉·凯特勒、早期风险投资公司Operator Collective的创始人和普通合伙人马伦·延。以下为对话内容节选。

图片来源:Fortune

《财富》:各位认为未来一年最大的机会和风险分别都是什么?

萨拉·凯特勒:许多企业在利用疫情带来的机会削减成本、增加运营杠杆,其中可能会有不少企业获得比疫情爆发前更高的利润率。但这背后的推动因素不仅有疫苗、治疗方案和核酸检测,更有各国央行向市场注入的10万亿美元货币与财政支持。由于货币、财政政策对经济的影响通常要滞后一两年才会显现,所以现在我们尚未看到其全部影响。疫情后,预计材料、非必需消费品、金融、工业类股票将会大幅上涨。

我们现在最担心的风险其实是中美关系。我们最近刚在上海开设了办事处,也希望确保两边的想法、知识能够自由流通。我们可以从中国的私营企业那里学到很多东西,反之亦然。如果中美真的走向脱钩,国际环境只会进一步恶化。

大卫·艾斯沃特:我们现在知道未来将有多款疫苗推向市场,战胜新冠疫情只是个时间问题,12个月或者18个月。虽然道路曲折,但前途依然光明。我对此很有信心。所以,我们必须经得住短期内的痛楚,以便在未来两三年获得丰厚的回报。在我看来,社会动荡是个很大的风险。我不太明白为什么美国会变成现在这个样子,也不太明白大家的想法,彼此之间的对立程度有多严重。这种分裂会让我们变得脆弱。我还比较担心利率。现在美国利率一直维持在零利率的水平。房产价格持续上涨,你知道最近30年期抵押贷款的利率是多少么?只有2.8%!等到利率回归正常时,所有资产的价格都会出现下跌。如果10年期国债的利率调整到3%,美国经济还能维持增长吗?这种情况势必给经济带来阵痛。

“我们正处于市场周期的繁荣阶段。之后会出现什么情况呢?”--萨拉·凯特勒,Causeway Capital。摄影:Robyn Twomey—Redux Pictures for Fortune

马伦·延:今年9月,有110万工人退出了就业市场,其中80%是女性。造成这种现象的原因有很多,比如我们曾经为上班族父母提供的支持现在已经不复存在,其中就包括传统的托儿所和学校。劳动力市场在性别平等方面取得的成绩来之不易,我们如何才能确保这些成绩不会付之东流?又该如何才能确保未来依然能够诞生像索尼娅·辛加尔斯和丽莎·苏斯了这样杰出的职场女性呢?

对上班族父母、单身上班族母亲而言,他们很难适应那种必须通勤、朝八晚五的僵化企业结构。所以当我看到人们日益习惯以更灵活的方式开展工作,不必在死板、传统的公司里委屈求全时,我真是备受鼓舞。

萨维塔·苏布拉马尼安:我们习惯于将标普500指数看作是经济的晴雨表,但其价格波动最近显得颇为怪异,每隔一天就会发生一次八个标准差事件,正常情况下,这种事件应该一百年才会发生一次。出现这种情况一方面说明了市场参与者能够依照自己的心意做出决定,这当然是好事,但这也意味着市场参与者能够快速下注进行投机,这就会搅乱市场。

截止11月5日当周,30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率为2.8%,创历史新低。一些投资者担心,未来利率如果出现上调,股票和其他资产的价格将会暴跌。

但这也给交易者带来了机遇。就标普500指数而言,如果你是在市场上进行日内交易,那么你赚钱的几率可能只比50%稍高一点。但如果把时间拉长到10年,那么你赔钱的概率将会降到5%以下。因此,如果放下激进的交易策略,转而采用老派的长期持有的交易策略,那么现在可能是赚钱的良机。

乔希·布朗:我想提一个很大的风险。今年美联储做的事情可能很重要,但是也开了个很坏的头。通常情况下,如果碰到今年这么严重的经济衰退,那么很多企业都会沦落到破产倒闭的境地。但实际上,今年几乎没有企业破产。当然,美联储采取的一系列措施确实让企业得以保住了自己员工的岗位,也让自己不至于关门大吉。但问题是,今年有经济衰退之名却没有经济衰退之实。要想完全消除人们对衰退应对措施的错误理解可能还得一段时间。

问题在于,未来我们还会碰到经济衰退,可能是3年后,也可能是12年后,这个我就说不准了,到时候政策制定者就会面临再次祭出经济刺激措施的压力。人们会说,“上次你给每个人都发钱了,这次凭什么不给?”“上次是因为疫情。”“好的,那这次是因为外星人入侵,我觉得问题一样严重,发钱吧。”这太疯狂了,惠而浦在经济衰退期卖出的浴缸比经济扩张期还多。通用汽车的收益也是大幅增长,简直不可思议。我们该如何才能避免采取同样的措施呢?问题在于,每推出一次经济刺激计划,美国就会积累更多的债务。我们一直都处在债务陷阱之中,只是现在陷得更深了。

乔希·布朗,RITHOLTZ财富管理公司

当前,我们迎来了一个重大机遇,那就是直接指数行业化组合(购买由多只个股构成的多样化投资组合、而不是指数基金或ETF)。这种投资方式将给整个行业带来巨大的根本性改变。我们也已开始将只投资ETF的家庭转向直接指数行业化组合。通过这种操作,我们在诸多方面都取得了无法用语言形容的成绩,比如客户满意度、业绩提升、税损收获,以及对不注重性别平等的企业、枪支制造商和不注重改善环境影响的石油企业予以了剔除,等等。

如今,美国的新富阶层都出自硅谷,这些高净值新贵的言谈举止、思维方式都与婴儿潮一代截然不同。不过二者也有一些共同点,那就是他们都会带着1000万美元的净资产来找我这样的理财经理处理财富管理事宜,然后他们的1000万美元资产中可能有800万在Facebook股票上。这时我就不能跟他说:“我们直接买(纳斯达克ETF)吧,”因为这样只会增加Facebook股票给其资产带来的集中风险。苹果、Salesforce、谷歌、微软也是如此。而直接指数行业化组合可以让我们将资金投入到除Facebook或网络广告公司以外的纳斯达克上市企业之上。

各大主要资产管理机构都在用这种方式思考,因为他们知道,作为一项1990年代的科技,ETF在2020年代的世界中已经有些过时了。

感谢各位与我们分享了这么多值得思考的问题。

三个值得期待的投资动向与三项需要注意的风险因素

值得期待的投资动向

非美国股票

从市盈率角度看,新兴市场和欧洲市场的股票价格比美股便宜20%至30%,待到经济复苏时,这些股票的上涨空间更大。

传统金融行业股票与新兴金融行业股票

随着新冠疫情日益趋缓,金融类股票很可能迎来一波大涨,不过颇有讽刺意味的是,金融科技类股票似乎也会迎来大涨,而且可能还会抢走更多的市场份额。

年轻投资者

年轻一代愿意投资社会负责的企业,也愿意为之工作,这种局面正在改变企业对自己工作重点的设定,也会对股价产生影响。

需要注意的风险因素

利率

疫情期间,各国央行均将利率维持在了相当低的水平。如果在经济复苏之际利率调整到正常水平,那么股票和房地产价格或将出现暴跌。

中美关系

贸易与知识产权争端或将进一步升级,进而损害依赖全球供应链的跨国公司。

上班族父母

学校和托儿所的关闭迫使数百万女性退出了劳动力市场,这将造成不可预见的经济后果。(财富中文网)

本文另一版本刊载于《财富》2020年12月/2021年1月刊,标题为“投资者圆桌会谈:聪明资金谋划下一步行动”。

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

《财富》投资者圆桌论坛于本月召开,在此期间,受利好商业的大选结果和新冠疫苗积极消息影响,股市连创新高。如果经济能在2021年恢复至正常水平,与会嘉宾也期望能帮助自己的客户从经济复苏中获益。

不过他们也并非没有顾虑。在一场分裂的选举之后,中美之间、政治对手之间、各州之间的紧张关系都让不少与会嘉宾不敢过于乐观。也有人担心太过强劲的经济增长会带来副作用,比如经济过热往往会导致利率上升,进而影响股市的长期表现。

与会嘉宾包括美银美林美国股票与量化策略部门主管兼全球ESG研究主管萨维塔·苏布拉马尼安、Ritholtz财富管理公司首席执行官乔希·布朗、美国基金界领军公司T.Rowe Price全球股票基金的负责人大卫·艾斯沃特、Causeway Capital首席执行官兼基本面投资组合经理萨拉·凯特勒、早期风险投资公司Operator Collective的创始人和普通合伙人马伦·延。以下为对话内容节选。

《财富》:各位认为未来一年最大的机会和风险分别都是什么?

萨拉·凯特勒:许多企业在利用疫情带来的机会削减成本、增加运营杠杆,其中可能会有不少企业获得比疫情爆发前更高的利润率。但这背后的推动因素不仅有疫苗、治疗方案和核酸检测,更有各国央行向市场注入的10万亿美元货币与财政支持。由于货币、财政政策对经济的影响通常要滞后一两年才会显现,所以现在我们尚未看到其全部影响。疫情后,预计材料、非必需消费品、金融、工业类股票将会大幅上涨。

我们现在最担心的风险其实是中美关系。我们最近刚在上海开设了办事处,也希望确保两边的想法、知识能够自由流通。我们可以从中国的私营企业那里学到很多东西,反之亦然。如果中美真的走向脱钩,国际环境只会进一步恶化。

大卫·艾斯沃特:我们现在知道未来将有多款疫苗推向市场,战胜新冠疫情只是个时间问题,12个月或者18个月。虽然道路曲折,但前途依然光明。我对此很有信心。所以,我们必须经得住短期内的痛楚,以便在未来两三年获得丰厚的回报。在我看来,社会动荡是个很大的风险。我不太明白为什么美国会变成现在这个样子,也不太明白大家的想法,彼此之间的对立程度有多严重。这种分裂会让我们变得脆弱。我还比较担心利率。现在美国利率一直维持在零利率的水平。房产价格持续上涨,你知道最近30年期抵押贷款的利率是多少么?只有2.8%!等到利率回归正常时,所有资产的价格都会出现下跌。如果10年期国债的利率调整到3%,美国经济还能维持增长吗?这种情况势必给经济带来阵痛。

马伦·延:今年9月,有110万工人退出了就业市场,其中80%是女性。造成这种现象的原因有很多,比如我们曾经为上班族父母提供的支持现在已经不复存在,其中就包括传统的托儿所和学校。劳动力市场在性别平等方面取得的成绩来之不易,我们如何才能确保这些成绩不会付之东流?又该如何才能确保未来依然能够诞生像索尼娅·辛加尔斯和丽莎·苏斯了这样杰出的职场女性呢?

对上班族父母、单身上班族母亲而言,他们很难适应那种必须通勤、朝八晚五的僵化企业结构。所以当我看到人们日益习惯以更灵活的方式开展工作,不必在死板、传统的公司里委屈求全时,我真是备受鼓舞。

萨维塔·苏布拉马尼安:我们习惯于将标普500指数看作是经济的晴雨表,但其价格波动最近显得颇为怪异,每隔一天就会发生一次八个标准差事件,正常情况下,这种事件应该一百年才会发生一次。出现这种情况一方面说明了市场参与者能够依照自己的心意做出决定,这当然是好事,但这也意味着市场参与者能够快速下注进行投机,这就会搅乱市场。

截止11月5日当周,30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率为2.8%,创历史新低。一些投资者担心,未来利率如果出现上调,股票和其他资产的价格将会暴跌。

但这也给交易者带来了机遇。就标普500指数而言,如果你是在市场上进行日内交易,那么你赚钱的几率可能只比50%稍高一点。但如果把时间拉长到10年,那么你赔钱的概率将会降到5%以下。因此,如果放下激进的交易策略,转而采用老派的长期持有的交易策略,那么现在可能是赚钱的良机。

乔希·布朗:我想提一个很大的风险。今年美联储做的事情可能很重要,但是也开了个很坏的头。通常情况下,如果碰到今年这么严重的经济衰退,那么很多企业都会沦落到破产倒闭的境地。但实际上,今年几乎没有企业破产。当然,美联储采取的一系列措施确实让企业得以保住了自己员工的岗位,也让自己不至于关门大吉。但问题是,今年有经济衰退之名却没有经济衰退之实。要想完全消除人们对衰退应对措施的错误理解可能还得一段时间。

问题在于,未来我们还会碰到经济衰退,可能是3年后,也可能是12年后,这个我就说不准了,到时候政策制定者就会面临再次祭出经济刺激措施的压力。人们会说,“上次你给每个人都发钱了,这次凭什么不给?”“上次是因为疫情。”“好的,那这次是因为外星人入侵,我觉得问题一样严重,发钱吧。”这太疯狂了,惠而浦在经济衰退期卖出的浴缸比经济扩张期还多。通用汽车的收益也是大幅增长,简直不可思议。我们该如何才能避免采取同样的措施呢?问题在于,每推出一次经济刺激计划,美国就会积累更多的债务。我们一直都处在债务陷阱之中,只是现在陷得更深了。

乔希·布朗,RITHOLTZ财富管理公司

当前,我们迎来了一个重大机遇,那就是直接指数行业化组合(购买由多只个股构成的多样化投资组合、而不是指数基金或ETF)。这种投资方式将给整个行业带来巨大的根本性改变。我们也已开始将只投资ETF的家庭转向直接指数行业化组合。通过这种操作,我们在诸多方面都取得了无法用语言形容的成绩,比如客户满意度、业绩提升、税损收获,以及对不注重性别平等的企业、枪支制造商和不注重改善环境影响的石油企业予以了剔除,等等。

如今,美国的新富阶层都出自硅谷,这些高净值新贵的言谈举止、思维方式都与婴儿潮一代截然不同。不过二者也有一些共同点,那就是他们都会带着1000万美元的净资产来找我这样的理财经理处理财富管理事宜,然后他们的1000万美元资产中可能有800万在Facebook股票上。这时我就不能跟他说:“我们直接买(纳斯达克ETF)吧,”因为这样只会增加Facebook股票给其资产带来的集中风险。苹果、Salesforce、谷歌、微软也是如此。而直接指数行业化组合可以让我们将资金投入到除Facebook或网络广告公司以外的纳斯达克上市企业之上。

各大主要资产管理机构都在用这种方式思考,因为他们知道,作为一项1990年代的科技,ETF在2020年代的世界中已经有些过时了。

感谢各位与我们分享了这么多值得思考的问题。

三个值得期待的投资动向与三项需要注意的风险因素

值得期待的投资动向

非美国股票

从市盈率角度看,新兴市场和欧洲市场的股票价格比美股便宜20%至30%,待到经济复苏时,这些股票的上涨空间更大。

传统金融行业股票与新兴金融行业股票

随着新冠疫情日益趋缓,金融类股票很可能迎来一波大涨,不过颇有讽刺意味的是,金融科技类股票似乎也会迎来大涨,而且可能还会抢走更多的市场份额。

年轻投资者

年轻一代愿意投资社会负责的企业,也愿意为之工作,这种局面正在改变企业对自己工作重点的设定,也会对股价产生影响。

需要注意的风险因素

利率

疫情期间,各国央行均将利率维持在了相当低的水平。如果在经济复苏之际利率调整到正常水平,那么股票和房地产价格或将出现暴跌。

中美关系

贸易与知识产权争端或将进一步升级,进而损害依赖全球供应链的跨国公司。

上班族父母

学校和托儿所的关闭迫使数百万女性退出了劳动力市场,这将造成不可预见的经济后果。(财富中文网)

本文另一版本刊载于《财富》2020年12月/2021年1月刊,标题为“投资者圆桌会谈:聪明资金谋划下一步行动”。

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

When Fortune’s Investor Roundtable met this month, business-friendly election results and positive news about potential COVID vaccines were driving stocks to new record highs. Our panelists are looking forward to helping their clients profit from an economy that might—with a little luck—be rounding back to normal in 2021.

But they aren’t without worries. Tensions between China and the U.S., and between political opponents, state-side, after a divisive election, have several members of the group feeling cautious. Others are concerned about the consequences of getting too much of a good thing: If a strong economy leads to rising interest rates (as it often does), that could hurt stock performance in the long run.

Joining us were Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy and head of global ESG research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management; David Eiswert, head of the top-performing T. Rowe Price Global Stock Fund; Sarah Ketterer, CEO and fundamental portfolio manager of Causeway Capital; and Mallun Yen, founder and general partner of early stage venture capital firm Operator Collective. The following is an edited excerpt from our conversation.

Fortune

Fortune: Where do you see the greatest opportunities and biggest risks in the year ahead?

Sarah Ketterer: So many companies have been using the pandemic to cut costs and increase operating leverage, and many of them will likely generate higher profit margins than they did pre-pandemic. But the catalyst behind all this is not just vaccines and therapies and testing. We’ve had $10 trillion, globally, of monetary and fiscal support from central banks. This typically hits economies with a one- to two-year lag, so we haven’t even seen the full impact yet. It’s the materials stocks, the consumer discretionary, the financials, industrials, that will come roaring out of this.

The risk that worries us the most is U.S.-China relations. We just opened a Shanghai office, and I want to make sure that there’s free movement of ideas, of knowledge. There’s so much we can learn from private sector companies in China and vice versa. If that’s cut off, and we balkanize, the world is worse for it.

David Eiswert: We now know there’s gonna be multiple vaccines. We’re gonna beat COVID. I feel pretty confident about that on a 12-month, 18-month basis. That’s the destination. But the path is rocky. You have to suffer on the path in the near term, so that you make money over the next two, three years. I think social unrest is a big risk. I don’t understand our country right now. I don’t understand beliefs that people have, and how opposed they are. I think it makes us vulnerable. And I worry about interest rates. Right now we live in zero-interest-rate land. Housing prices are off the hook—what was the 30-year mortgage, recently, 2.8%? When that goes away, all asset prices are going to go down. Do we have an economy that can sustain growth with a 10-year Treasury at 3%? Because that’s going to cause pain.

Mallun Yen: So, 1.1 million workers dropped out of the labor force in September, and 80% of those were women. And the reasons include the fact that a lot of the supports that we have in place for working parents, like traditional childcare and traditional school, went away. How do we make sure that the workforce that we’ve worked so hard to get onto equal footing is not wiped out, so that you can have the Sonia Syngals and Lisa Sus in the next generation?

It’s very hard for working parents, single working moms, to fit into the rigid corporate structure of having to commute in, having to work from eight to five. So I’m very encouraged that people have now gotten used to the fact that, hey, you don’t have to fit into that rigid, traditional corporate construct. We can work a little bit more flexibly.

Savita Subramanian: The S&P 500 in particular, which we all watch as a barometer, has started acting really weird in terms of price swings. We’re seeing eight-standard-deviation events happen every other day—these are supposed to happen every hundred years. And maybe this is because of the democratization of the market, which is good—but it also means you have the ability to express a bet very quickly, and roil the market.

2.8%

AVERAGE RATE ON A 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE FOR THE WEEK ENDED NOV. 5–AN ALL-TIME LOW. SOME INVESTORS FEAR THAT STOCK AND OTHER ASSET PRICES WILL SLUMP IF INTEREST RATES EVENTUALLY RISE.

But there’s an opportunity there, too. For the S&P 500, if you’re buying and selling the market on a one-day basis, your chance of making money is a little bit better than a coin flip. But if you extend that time horizon to 10 years, your probability of losing money is less than 5%. So thinking about the market from an old-school buying-and-holding mentality, and not trading as aggressively, might be the biggest opportunity to make money.

Josh Brown: I’ll give you one very big risk. What the Fed did this year was probably essential. But it may have set a really bad precedent. Normally, in a recession of the magnitude that we’ve had, we would have already been in the midst of a wave of corporate bankruptcies. And in fact, there are almost no bankruptcies. And we did that, of course, so that companies would keep their workers and the wheels wouldn’t fall off. But we had a recession without having a recession. And I don’t think that we have fully mentally processed that.

And here’s the problem: We’ll have another recession. It might be in three years, it might be in 12 years, I don’t know. But the pressure on policymakers will be to simply repeat what we just did. And people will say, “Last time you just gave everybody money. Why wouldn’t you do it this time?” “Well, that was a pandemic.” “Oh, well, this time it’s an alien invasion. I feel like that’s just as bad. Pull the trigger.” It’s insanity, but Whirlpool just sold more bathtubs in a recession than in an expansion. Or look at GM’s earnings. It’s bananas. How are we going to avoid doing this again? And here’s the thing: Every time we do it, more debt goes up. We’ve always been in this trap. But now we’re really in it.

JOSH BROWN, RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Here’s an opportunity that’s profound. Direct indexing [buying diversified portfolios of many individual stocks, rather than index funds or ETFs] is going to change our industry in massive, fundamental ways. We began migrating ETF-only households over to direct indexing. And I cannot tell you the degree of client satisfaction, performance improvement, tax-loss harvesting, the ability to remove companies that aren’t highly ranked on gender equality, to remove gun manufacturers, pull out of oil companies that aren’t trying to improve their environmental impact, etc.

All of the new wealth in the United States is now being generated in Silicon Valley. The new people with high net worth, they look and feel and speak and act and think way differently than the boomer generation. But what they all have in common is they come to wealth managers like me with $10 million net worth, and $8 million of it is in Facebook stock. And I can’t say to that person, “Let’s buy [a Nasdaq ETF],” because all I’m doing is upping their concentration risk in Facebook stock. Ditto for Apple, Salesforce, Google, Microsoft. So direct indexing is allowing us to give them the Nasdaq minus Facebook, or minus web advertising companies.

Every major asset manager is thinking this way, because they know that the ETF is now a 1990s technology in the 2020s world.

Thank you all for giving us so much to think about.

Three things to get excited about, and three to worry about

Get excited about

Non-U.S. stocks

Stocks in emerging markets and Europe are 20% to 30% cheaper than U.S. stocks in relation to their earnings, giving them more upside when the economy improves.

Finance, old or new

Financial stocks look well positioned to soar as COVID-19 eases; ironically, so do the fintech stocks looking to steal their market share.

Younger investors

Their desire to invest in and work for socially responsible companies is changing corporate priorities—and influencing share prices.

Worry about

Interest rates

Central banks have kept rates low during the pandemic. If rates inch back toward normal as the economy improves, prices of stocks and real estate could tumble.

U. S.-China tension

Trade wars and fights over intellectual property could escalate, harming multinationals that depend on global supply chains.

Working parents

School and childcare closures have driven millions of women out of the workforce, with unforeseeable economic consequences.

A version of this article appears in the December 2020/January 2021 issue of Fortune with the headline "Investor Roundtable: The smart money plots its next move."

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