史上首次，道指突破3万大关
本周二，道琼斯工业股票均指有史以来首次突破3万点大关，一改春季疫情最严重时的1.8万点低谷表现，成功实现绝地反弹。
促成市场乐观情绪的因素主要有以下三方面：首先，继阿斯利康宣布其疫苗有效性高达90%后，民众对于疫苗研制的信心普遍高涨。其次，有消息传出美国政府服务部已正式启动特朗普与拜登之间的交接工作，在一定程度上消弭了市场对于权力过渡危机的担忧。
最后，昨日拜登将任命珍妮特·耶伦为财政部长的消息也受到了华尔街的热烈欢迎。耶伦本人相当稳重可靠，曾被《华尔街邮报》赞誉为“帮助美国从经济大萧条中复苏的沙场老手”，同时她也是政府经济刺激计划的支持者。另外，一些华尔街人士也并不希望新任财政部长因为太过激进而导致股市波动，反而支持并愿意配合更严格规范的监管工作。
“美国大选以后的股市反响确实令人出乎意料。”LPL首席金融市场策略分析师瑞安·德特里克在周一的一份报告中写道：“本月标普500指数大涨8.8%，有望成为40年来变现最好的一个十一月。于此同时，小型股也走势强劲，罗素2000指数涨了16%，成为其有史以来第二好的十一月。虽然我们仍长期看涨股市，但也有迹象表明市场情绪里已经有了一些泡沫，这可能会引起股市在后期回调。”
目前看来，小盘股的涨势仍就火热，罗素2000指数有望创造最佳纪录。一些分析师表示，鉴于罗素指数与 GDP和经济周期变化之间的关联度和敏感度不断增强，这就尤其表明美国基本面经济状况正在好转。
尽管如此，美国新冠确诊数量仍在攀升，即将到来的感恩节假期对于防疫工作也是一个不小的挑战，这些都会影响到之后的股市走向。高盛经济分析师也因此下调了他们对于后续季度GDP的预期数值。该行解释称“疫情复发”是其考量的主要原因。高盛此番预计2020年第四季度及2021第一季度年化增长率分别为3.5%和1.0%(此前预测分别为4.5%和3.5%)。”
疫情也是另一些悲观投资者看跌股市的原因。Hercules投资公司首席执行官詹姆斯·麦克唐纳德表示，他的公司正在为此后股市回落的可能性做准备，麦克唐纳德预计股市会在12月至1月20日期间跌去20%，新冠确诊病例数的持续增长、大选及交接工作的不确定性以及国会方面在新一轮经济刺激政策上的难产，都会是造成股市动荡的风险之一。
“虽然道指3万点对股市来说是一个具有象征意义的时刻，但这只是大选前市场情绪的一种延续。截至当日收盘，道指3万点只是一个数字，这个里程碑并不能用来确定后续的股市前景。”麦克唐纳德写道。（财富中文网）
编译:陈怡轩
本周二，道琼斯工业股票均指有史以来首次突破3万点大关，一改春季疫情最严重时的1.8万点低谷表现，成功实现绝地反弹。
促成市场乐观情绪的因素主要有以下三方面：首先，继阿斯利康宣布其疫苗有效性高达90%后，民众对于疫苗研制的信心普遍高涨。其次，有消息传出美国政府服务部已正式启动特朗普与拜登之间的交接工作，在一定程度上消弭了市场对于权力过渡危机的担忧。
最后，昨日拜登将任命珍妮特·耶伦为财政部长的消息也受到了华尔街的热烈欢迎。耶伦本人相当稳重可靠，曾被《华尔街邮报》赞誉为“帮助美国从经济大萧条中复苏的沙场老手”，同时她也是政府经济刺激计划的支持者。另外，一些华尔街人士也并不希望新任财政部长因为太过激进而导致股市波动，反而支持并愿意配合更严格规范的监管工作。
“美国大选以后的股市反响确实令人出乎意料。”LPL首席金融市场策略分析师瑞安·德特里克在周一的一份报告中写道：“本月标普500指数大涨8.8%，有望成为40年来变现最好的一个十一月。于此同时，小型股也走势强劲，罗素2000指数涨了16%，成为其有史以来第二好的十一月。虽然我们仍长期看涨股市，但也有迹象表明市场情绪里已经有了一些泡沫，这可能会引起股市在后期回调。”
目前看来，小盘股的涨势仍就火热，罗素2000指数有望创造最佳纪录。一些分析师表示，鉴于罗素指数与 GDP和经济周期变化之间的关联度和敏感度不断增强，这就尤其表明美国基本面经济状况正在好转。
尽管如此，美国新冠确诊数量仍在攀升，即将到来的感恩节假期对于防疫工作也是一个不小的挑战，这些都会影响到之后的股市走向。高盛经济分析师也因此下调了他们对于后续季度GDP的预期数值。该行解释称“疫情复发”是其考量的主要原因。高盛此番预计2020年第四季度及2021第一季度年化增长率分别为3.5%和1.0%(此前预测分别为4.5%和3.5%)。”
疫情也是另一些悲观投资者看跌股市的原因。Hercules投资公司首席执行官詹姆斯·麦克唐纳德表示，他的公司正在为此后股市回落的可能性做准备，麦克唐纳德预计股市会在12月至1月20日期间跌去20%，新冠确诊病例数的持续增长、大选及交接工作的不确定性以及国会方面在新一轮经济刺激政策上的难产，都会是造成股市动荡的风险之一。
“虽然道指3万点对股市来说是一个具有象征意义的时刻，但这只是大选前市场情绪的一种延续。截至当日收盘，道指3万点只是一个数字，这个里程碑并不能用来确定后续的股市前景。”麦克唐纳德写道。（财富中文网）
编译:陈怡轩
The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 30,000 threshold for the first time ever Tuesday, capping an astounding run from the depths of the pandemic last spring when the index bottomed out just above 18,000.
Investors were feeling optimistic on three fronts. First, vaccine optimism was flowing Monday with the announcement that a third candidate from AstraZeneca was up to 90% effective. Second, news late Monday that the Government Services Administration, which had been stalling the transition from the outgoing Trump Administration to the incoming Biden Administration, would begin its formal handover process, came as a relief to those who had feared an extended transition-of-power crisis.
And finally, yesterday's news that Biden was poised to name Janet Yellen Treasury secretary was also greeted warmly by Wall Street. Not only is she a steady hand—someone the Washington Post called "a battle-tested leader who helped the nation recover from the Great Recession"—she is seen as a supporter of government stimulus. Moreover some on Wall Street had feared a more progressive choice would have roiled the stock market and favored heavier regulation.
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist for LPL Financial wrote in a note Monday that "The reaction from stocks since the US election has been truly impressive. The S&P 500 Index is up 8.8% for the month, on pace to be the best November for the S&P 500 in 40 years. Small caps have also soared, with the Russell 2000 Index up 16%, which would be its second-best month ever. Although we remain longer-term bullish on equities, there are some signs that sentiment could be getting a little frothy at the moment, which could increase the odds of a pullback."
The runup in small cap stocks has been sizzling, with the Russell 2000 on track for its best month ever. That in particular is a sign, say some analysts, that the underlying economic conditions are on the mend, given the index increased sensitivity to changes in GDP and the economic cycle.
Still, spiking COVID cases and the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday are a worrisome backdrop to the exuberance in the stock market. In fact, economists at Goldman Sachs recently lowered their GDP estimates for that reason. "The bank cited 'the rapid and broad-based resurgence of the coronavirus' as the main reason it was downgrading Q4 and Q1 GDP forecasts. Goldman now expects +3.5% and +1.0% annualized growth in Q4 and Q1 (+4.5% and +3.5% previously)."
That's one reason some bearish investors aren't convinced we'll stay at these levels. James McDonald, CEO of Hercules Investments in Los Angeles wrote in a note Tuesday that, his firm is preparing for a 20% stock market pullback between now and the inauguration, and that he sees substantial risk in rising COVID-19 cases, continued election uncertainty and the likelihood of insufficient fiscal stimulus from Congress.
"While Dow 30,000 is a symbolic moment for the stock market, it is simply a continuation of the market's euphoria after the pre-election selloff. At the end of the day, Dow 30,000 is just a number and the milestone doesn't hold any credence in determining the near-term stock market outlook," McDonald writes.
