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氢经济:被炒作多年之后终于迎来了发展良机

氢经济:被炒作多年之后终于迎来了发展良机

KATHERINE DUNN 2020-11-24
氢似乎变成了解决全球能源转型问题的良方

提到全球能源转型,有一个词经常出现,有时候它似乎变成了解决问题的良方,这个词就是:氢。

多年来,氢动力汽车、卡车和工厂被炒作成使用高污染化石燃料的上一代产业的清洁替代品。而对于地球而言更有益的是绿氢,因为它的来源更清洁。

正是因为这一点才让氢引起了广泛关注。

本周,英国政府公布了绿氢发展计划,将把绿氢作为其“绿色工业革命”的基础,并会为此拨款5亿英镑(约合6.65亿美元)公共资金。此前,澳大利亚、法国和韩国政府也公布了类似的政策。企业界同样不甘落后。本月早些时候,英国石油(BP)和丹麦风电行业巨头沃旭能源(Ørsted)公布了一个联合项目,将在德国建设一座利用风电制氢的工厂。

在氢能领域出现创新热潮的原因不难理解。氢是宇宙中最丰富的元素,被认为能够替代天然气和煤炭,有诱人的前景,可以帮助航空、炼钢和海运等重污染行业实现脱碳。发展氢能的另外一个好处是,当前依赖碳排放的经济中的现有基础设施,从输油管道到炼油厂,经过改造之后都可以用于氢基能源生产。

以下是关于氢经济你需要知道的信息。

氢并不一定是绿色环保的

虽然人们在谈论低碳燃料的时候经常提到氢,但我们需要记住,氢本身并不一定是绿色的,这要取决于它的生产方式。

标普全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)未来能源分析负责人罗曼·克拉玛查克表示:“目前,总体上来说氢并不算是一种清洁燃料,或许你可以用看待电力的方式来看待氢。”

首先,制氢需要在电解过程中用到大量电力,或者通过分解水。如果电力来自煤炭,那么用这些电力生产的氢就不是绿色环保的,除非使用可再生能源制氢。因此,绿氢的未来发展离不开可靠的低成本电力的持续增加,例如风电和太阳能发电。

事实上,数十年来,氢早已被用于石油或化学品提炼等领域,制氢的燃料几乎全部都是化石燃料,因此根本不是“绿”氢。据国际能源署(IEA)统计,目前氢年产量约为7,000万公吨,而在2019年的石油和天然气产量约为46亿公吨。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的数据显示,约6%的天然气和2%的煤炭被用于制氢。因此,国际能源署表示氢是一个令人意外的巨大排放源,超过了英国和印度尼西亚的总排放量之和。

我们还有很长的路要走

对于绿氢,投资者的势头和政府的支持起点很低。

目前许多市场的风电和太阳能发电已经非常成熟,可以与化石燃料竞争,而且不再需要补贴,但利用这些资源开发氢能依旧成本高昂。彭博研究部门BloombergNEF的一项分析认为,绿氢的制氢成本在每公斤2.5美元至4.5美元之间。相比之下,虽然一桶石油的重量取决于其来源,但市面上交易的一桶西德克萨斯中质原油目前的平均价格只有0.31美元/公斤。

克拉玛查克表示,如果没有旨在惩罚化石燃料竞争对手的高碳价,“制氢本身根本不合算。氢能要真正开始取代化石燃料,离不开各界的扶持。”

美国银行(Bank of America)的分析师认为,绿氢价格需要下降85%才能与普通氢能竞争,他们认为这个价格到2030可以实现。

因此,绿氢在氢总产量中依旧仅占一小部分,与其他化石燃料相比根本微不足道。据国际能源署统计,2019年,全球低碳氢产量为每年0.36公吨,约占年度氢需求总量的0.5%。

在研发方面,氢能在国际能源署成员国的任何公共投资领域中同样占的比例最小。2019年,全球氢能研发支出约为8亿美元,不足化石燃料研发支出的一半,而全球研发总支出高达200亿美元。

为什么所有人都如此看好氢能的前景?

目前,氢能属于高碳排放、高成本的资源,作为一种变革性的低碳燃料前景并不光明。

然而,氢能搭配将氢能转化成电能的燃料电池,被越来越多的人视为能源组合中一个极具发展潜力的新选择。燃料电池不同于蓄电池。一方面,在海上运输业和航空业等难以减排的行业,氢能有望成为一种替代燃料。另一方面,当系统中的绿色电力过剩时,例如在多风的天气,可以使用这些电力生产绿氢,然后存储起来供未来使用,有助于解决低碳能源系统中产量不可靠的问题。

实现净零排放目标需要利用各种可用技术减少能源系统的碳排放,同时利用各种减排方案或其他技术抵消难以减少的排放。与碳捕捉与封存技术一样,氢能提供真正实现近零排放的机会。

同样,氢能也为传统石油和天然气行业巨头提供了改造现有炼油和管道基础设施,生产新燃料的机会。

克拉玛查克表示:“许多现有能源公司正在研究自身的技能组合,希望找到参与能源转型过程最合适的方法。”

他补充说,氢的大规模应用“会让他们在能源转型过程中发挥一定的作用。”

最终的结果是,尽管绿氢的起点很低,但会迅速发展。国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示,氢燃料目前处在一个“关键时期”。

国际能源署预计,按照其可持续发展情境,2020至2030年期间,绿氢产量将增加近六倍,而且从法国、韩国到澳大利亚,许多国家为了减少排放,并领先一步成为有利可图的氢能出口市场,类似于今天的石油或天然气出口国,它们纷纷宣布了针对绿氢的国家发展计划或投资刺激政策。

这提高了人们对于氢能发展潜力的预期。美国银行(BofA)分析师预测,到2050年,绿氢将占全球能源需求的24%,成为一种关键燃料来源。

这当然是一个漫长的过程,可能无法让环保主义者满意,但却能提升许多政治人物注重气候变化的声誉。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

提到全球能源转型,有一个词经常出现,有时候它似乎变成了解决问题的良方,这个词就是:氢。

多年来,氢动力汽车、卡车和工厂被炒作成使用高污染化石燃料的上一代产业的清洁替代品。而对于地球而言更有益的是绿氢,因为它的来源更清洁。

正是因为这一点才让氢引起了广泛关注。

本周,英国政府公布了绿氢发展计划,将把绿氢作为其“绿色工业革命”的基础,并会为此拨款5亿英镑(约合6.65亿美元)公共资金。此前,澳大利亚、法国和韩国政府也公布了类似的政策。企业界同样不甘落后。本月早些时候,英国石油(BP)和丹麦风电行业巨头沃旭能源(Ørsted)公布了一个联合项目,将在德国建设一座利用风电制氢的工厂。

在氢能领域出现创新热潮的原因不难理解。氢是宇宙中最丰富的元素,被认为能够替代天然气和煤炭,有诱人的前景,可以帮助航空、炼钢和海运等重污染行业实现脱碳。发展氢能的另外一个好处是,当前依赖碳排放的经济中的现有基础设施,从输油管道到炼油厂,经过改造之后都可以用于氢基能源生产。

以下是关于氢经济你需要知道的信息。

氢并不一定是绿色环保的

虽然人们在谈论低碳燃料的时候经常提到氢,但我们需要记住,氢本身并不一定是绿色的,这要取决于它的生产方式。

标普全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)未来能源分析负责人罗曼·克拉玛查克表示:“目前,总体上来说氢并不算是一种清洁燃料,或许你可以用看待电力的方式来看待氢。”

首先,制氢需要在电解过程中用到大量电力,或者通过分解水。如果电力来自煤炭,那么用这些电力生产的氢就不是绿色环保的,除非使用可再生能源制氢。因此,绿氢的未来发展离不开可靠的低成本电力的持续增加,例如风电和太阳能发电。

事实上,数十年来,氢早已被用于石油或化学品提炼等领域,制氢的燃料几乎全部都是化石燃料,因此根本不是“绿”氢。据国际能源署(IEA)统计,目前氢年产量约为7,000万公吨,而在2019年的石油和天然气产量约为46亿公吨。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的数据显示,约6%的天然气和2%的煤炭被用于制氢。因此,国际能源署表示氢是一个令人意外的巨大排放源,超过了英国和印度尼西亚的总排放量之和。

我们还有很长的路要走

对于绿氢,投资者的势头和政府的支持起点很低。

目前许多市场的风电和太阳能发电已经非常成熟,可以与化石燃料竞争,而且不再需要补贴,但利用这些资源开发氢能依旧成本高昂。彭博研究部门BloombergNEF的一项分析认为,绿氢的制氢成本在每公斤2.5美元至4.5美元之间。相比之下,虽然一桶石油的重量取决于其来源,但市面上交易的一桶西德克萨斯中质原油目前的平均价格只有0.31美元/公斤。

克拉玛查克表示,如果没有旨在惩罚化石燃料竞争对手的高碳价,“制氢本身根本不合算。氢能要真正开始取代化石燃料,离不开各界的扶持。”

美国银行(Bank of America)的分析师认为,绿氢价格需要下降85%才能与普通氢能竞争,他们认为这个价格到2030可以实现。

因此,绿氢在氢总产量中依旧仅占一小部分,与其他化石燃料相比根本微不足道。据国际能源署统计,2019年,全球低碳氢产量为每年0.36公吨,约占年度氢需求总量的0.5%。

在研发方面,氢能在国际能源署成员国的任何公共投资领域中同样占的比例最小。2019年,全球氢能研发支出约为8亿美元,不足化石燃料研发支出的一半,而全球研发总支出高达200亿美元。

为什么所有人都如此看好氢能的前景?

目前,氢能属于高碳排放、高成本的资源,作为一种变革性的低碳燃料前景并不光明。

然而,氢能搭配将氢能转化成电能的燃料电池,被越来越多的人视为能源组合中一个极具发展潜力的新选择。燃料电池不同于蓄电池。一方面,在海上运输业和航空业等难以减排的行业,氢能有望成为一种替代燃料。另一方面,当系统中的绿色电力过剩时,例如在多风的天气,可以使用这些电力生产绿氢,然后存储起来供未来使用,有助于解决低碳能源系统中产量不可靠的问题。

实现净零排放目标需要利用各种可用技术减少能源系统的碳排放,同时利用各种减排方案或其他技术抵消难以减少的排放。与碳捕捉与封存技术一样,氢能提供真正实现近零排放的机会。

同样,氢能也为传统石油和天然气行业巨头提供了改造现有炼油和管道基础设施,生产新燃料的机会。

克拉玛查克表示:“许多现有能源公司正在研究自身的技能组合,希望找到参与能源转型过程最合适的方法。”

他补充说,氢的大规模应用“会让他们在能源转型过程中发挥一定的作用。”

最终的结果是,尽管绿氢的起点很低,但会迅速发展。国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示,氢燃料目前处在一个“关键时期”。

国际能源署预计,按照其可持续发展情境,2020至2030年期间,绿氢产量将增加近六倍,而且从法国、韩国到澳大利亚,许多国家为了减少排放,并领先一步成为有利可图的氢能出口市场,类似于今天的石油或天然气出口国,它们纷纷宣布了针对绿氢的国家发展计划或投资刺激政策。

这提高了人们对于氢能发展潜力的预期。美国银行(BofA)分析师预测,到2050年,绿氢将占全球能源需求的24%,成为一种关键燃料来源。

这当然是一个漫长的过程,可能无法让环保主义者满意,但却能提升许多政治人物注重气候变化的声誉。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

When it comes to the global energy transition, there's one word that's repeated so often it sometimes seems to have achieved silver-bullet status: hydrogen.

Hydrogen-powered cars, trucks and factories have been hyped for years as clean substitutes to their forebears that run on dirty fossil fuels. Better still for the planet would be green hydrogen, which is cleaner at its source.

It's the latter that's getting much of the attention these days.

Just this week, the U.K. government unveiled a plan to make green hydrogen a cornerstone of its "green industrial revolution," snaring £500 million ($665 million) in public funding. It's a policy that follows similar government initiatives in Australia, France and South Korea. Companies, too, are getting on board. Earlier this month,BP and Ørsted, the Danish wind power giant, announced a joint project to create a wind-powered hydrogen plant in Germany.

It's easy to see why there's this rush to innovate with an "H." The most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen is viewed as a tantalizing substitute to natural gas and coal to help heavily polluting sectors such as aviation, steelmaking, and shipping de-carbonize. As an added bonus, some of the existing infrastructure in our carbon-dependent economy, from pipelines to refineries, can be retrofitted to hydrogen-based energy production.

Here's what you need to know.

Hydrogen is not necessarily green

While hydrogen is often spoken about in the context of low-carbon fuels, it's important to remember that hydrogen itself is not necessarily green, but only as green as how it was created.

"Right now, hydrogen is not a clean fuel, in general," says Roman Kramarchuk, head of future energy analytics at S&P Global Platts. "You might want to think of hydrogen in the same way you think of electricity."

To create hydrogen in the first place, abundant electricity must be used for the electrolysis process—or splitting water to create hydrogen. If that electricity comes from coal, the hydrogen itself will be far from green. It's only green if it's been created using renewable energy. That makes the future of green hydrogen inherently dependent on rising production of low cost, reliable energy from sources like wind and solar.

In fact, hydrogen has already been used for decades for oil or chemical refining and nearly all of it is created using fossil fuels, rather than "green" hydrogen. Currently, about 70 million metric tons of hydrogen are produced per year, according to the IEA. For context, about 4.6 billion MT of oil and gas combined was produced in 2019.

About 6% of natural gas supplies, and 2% of coal, is used to create hydrogen, according to the International Energy Agency. As a result, hydrogen is a surprisingly large source of our current emissions profile—surpassing the total emissions of the U.K. and Indonesia combined, the IEA says.

We're a long way off

Investor momentum and government support for green hydrogen is starting from a very low base.

Wind and solar power are now so established they are competitive with fossil fuels in many markets and no longer need subsidies, but using those resources to develop hydrogen power is still, well, expensive. An analysis by BloombergNEF, the company's research arm, put green hydrogen's costs between $2.50/kg to $4.50/kg to make. For comparison, although the weight of a barrel of oil varies depending on the source, an average traded barrel of WTI crude is currently worth roughly $0.31/kg.

"Simply on its own, it's not economic without a high carbon price," penalizing its fossil fuel competitors, says Kramarchuk. "In order to really start displacing fossil fuels, it needs support."

Analysts at Bank of America say green hydrogen prices would need to fall by 85% to be competitive with regular hydrogen, which they estimate could happen by 2030.

For that reason, green hydrogen is still only a tiny percentage of the total hydrogen production, and essentially nonexistent compared to other fuel sources. In 2019, global low-carbon hydrogen production was 0.36 metric tons per year, according to the IEA—about a half a percent of total annual hydrogen demand.

In terms of research and development, hydrogen also makes up the smallest share of any public investment area for IEA member countries. In 2019, R&D in hydrogen globally was roughly $800 million—out of $20 billion in total—less than half the amount marked out for fossil fuels.

So why is everyone so bullish?

Right now, hydrogen is high-carbon, and expensive—not exactly a promising state for a transformative, low-carbon fuel.

And yet, alongside fuel cells, which use hydrogen to produce electricity and unlike a battery does not need to be recharged, hydrogen is increasingly seen as a promising new addition to the energy puzzle. For one, it's a promising replacement fuel for industries like shipping and aviation where it's particularly difficult to reduce emissions. For another, green hydrogen can be produced when there is excess green power in the system—a particularly windy day, for example—and then stored for later use, helping manage the unreliable production challenge in low-carbon energy systems.

Hitting a net zero target requires using every available technology to decarbonize energy systems—and then using mitigating options or other technology to offset those emissions that are harder to eliminate. Hydrogen, like carbon-capture-and-storage, offers the chance to push those real cuts closer to an actual zero.

Also, like carbon capture and storage, hydrogen offers something else for legacy oil and gas giants: a way to repurpose their existing refining and pipeline infrastructure for a new fuel.

"There’s a number of energy incumbents that are trying to look at their own skill sets and think about what’s the best way they can be part of an energy transition," says Kramarchuk.

Large-scale hydrogen adoption "allows them to see themselves having a role," he added.

The result is that even if green hydrogen is coming from a low base, it's moving quickly. The fuel is at a "pivotal moment," according to the IEA's executive director, Fatih Birol.

The IEA sees green hydrogen production increasing by nearly six times between 2020 and 2030 under their sustainable development scenario, and many countries—from France to South Korea to Australia—have announced national plans or investment stimulus for green hydrogen, both to cut their own emissions and to establish a head-start in what could one day be a lucrative energy export market, much like oil or gas are today.

That has resulted in some lofty predictions for the potential of hydrogen. By 2050, BofA analysts predict green hydrogen could make up 24% of our global energy needs by 2050, making it a critical fuel sources.

It's certainly the definition of a long-term bet, which may not satisfy the green brigade, but it's burnishing the climate-friendly reputation of plenty of politicians.

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