特斯拉还能再涨？
按金融市场的乐观预测，特斯拉新一轮涨势不过刚刚开始。
特斯拉股价在今年一路狂飙，増幅高达490%，加之近期终于在众望所归下被纳入标普500指数，不少分析师认为，之后的特斯拉必将吸引大量的机构投资者。
韦德布什证券（Wedbush）股票研究所常务董事兼分析师丹·艾维斯也对特斯拉的涨势看好，他在本周日把特斯拉的目标股价从500美元上调至560美元，并将其“牛市预期”从800美元升至1000美元。换言之，艾维斯认为特斯拉股价还能较目前水平高出100%。
“市场对于电动车的需求正在逐年增长，尤其是在中国。”艾维斯向《财富》强调。他指出，目前电动车只占全球汽车销量中的3%，但到2025年，该数字可能会翻为10%。“特斯拉显然会拔得头筹，我们预测特斯拉到2022年的市场占比会由现在的15%增高至40%。”
艾维斯表示，这种增长性需求会惠及到所有的电动汽车制造商，而特斯拉因其先发优势，会在未来几年“尤其利好”。他把近几年特斯拉Model3在中国及欧洲地区的销量增长描述为“特氟龙效应”，“随着电动车在软件方面不断升级完备，特斯拉会于2021和2022年在中国大受欢迎，而其位于上海的超级工厂也是它巨大的竞争优势。”艾维斯写道。
拜登的当选对于电动车投资者而言更是一个潜在的乐观局面。艾维斯认为，拜登的“环境友好型”政策将会进一步提高新能源汽车企业的声望，同时也会为购买电动车的消费者提供激励措施。欧洲方面亦是如此，整个欧洲高度重视碳排放，严格的监管背后也就意味着电动车行业的繁荣。同样地，特斯拉也在柏林建了工厂，明年1月将会雇佣7000余名员工。
然而购买特斯拉股份对于投资者而言依然存在相当大的风险，首当其冲的就是特斯拉的“收益质量问题”（该专有名词由晨星MorningStar的戴维·惠斯顿提出）。
根据美国相关地区的环保规定，汽车制造商必须按其市场份额出售相应地零排放汽车或ZEV，如果汽车制造商没有销售足够数量的无污染汽车，则必须通过购买竞争对手的“碳信用额度”来弥补差额。一直以来，特斯拉的收益很大程度上都依赖于向其他公司出售自己的碳信用额度，换言之，特斯拉的收益质量存在问题，并非实打实地来自汽车销售。
虽然特斯拉第三季度的自由现金流较上年有所增长，但基本都是得益于“碳信用额度”的售卖行为。于此同时，晨星的惠斯顿还指出了特斯拉的定价问题，他认为特斯拉的定价过高，不能满足大众的需求。
当然，更高的估值也就意味着更大的压力。“特斯拉的成就必须走在市场期待之前，目前特斯拉所要面对的是市场前所未有的积极预期以及来自四面八方的竞争对手，因此，无论是在生产端还是需求端，只要出现任何疏漏，特斯拉的股价就会遭受负面影响。”艾维斯补充道。
就算特斯拉的估值正在水涨船高，但艾维斯坚信电动车领域是一片潜力巨大的蓝海。“未来几年我们会将入电动车需求的黄金期，这就是为什么我相信特斯拉还能再涨。”（财富中文网）
编译:陈怡轩
按金融市场的乐观预测，特斯拉新一轮涨势不过刚刚开始。
特斯拉股价在今年一路狂飙，増幅高达490%，加之近期终于在众望所归下被纳入标普500指数，不少分析师认为，之后的特斯拉必将吸引大量的机构投资者。
韦德布什证券（Wedbush）股票研究所常务董事兼分析师丹·艾维斯也对特斯拉的涨势看好，他在本周日把特斯拉的目标股价从500美元上调至560美元，并将其“牛市预期”从800美元升至1000美元。换言之，艾维斯认为特斯拉股价还能较目前水平高出100%。
“市场对于电动车的需求正在逐年增长，尤其是在中国。”艾维斯向《财富》强调。他指出，目前电动车只占全球汽车销量中的3%，但到2025年，该数字可能会翻为10%。“特斯拉显然会拔得头筹，我们预测特斯拉到2022年的市场占比会由现在的15%增高至40%。”
艾维斯表示，这种增长性需求会惠及到所有的电动汽车制造商，而特斯拉因其先发优势，会在未来几年“尤其利好”。他把近几年特斯拉Model3在中国及欧洲地区的销量增长描述为“特氟龙效应”，“随着电动车在软件方面不断升级完备，特斯拉会于2021和2022年在中国大受欢迎，而其位于上海的超级工厂也是它巨大的竞争优势。”艾维斯写道。
拜登的当选对于电动车投资者而言更是一个潜在的乐观局面。艾维斯认为，拜登的“环境友好型”政策将会进一步提高新能源汽车企业的声望，同时也会为购买电动车的消费者提供激励措施。欧洲方面亦是如此，整个欧洲高度重视碳排放，严格的监管背后也就意味着电动车行业的繁荣。同样地，特斯拉也在柏林建了工厂，明年1月将会雇佣7000余名员工。
然而购买特斯拉股份对于投资者而言依然存在相当大的风险，首当其冲的就是特斯拉的“收益质量问题”（该专有名词由晨星MorningStar的戴维·惠斯顿提出）。
根据美国相关地区的环保规定，汽车制造商必须按其市场份额出售相应地零排放汽车或ZEV，如果汽车制造商没有销售足够数量的无污染汽车，则必须通过购买竞争对手的“碳信用额度”来弥补差额。一直以来，特斯拉的收益很大程度上都依赖于向其他公司出售自己的碳信用额度，换言之，特斯拉的收益质量存在问题，并非实打实地来自汽车销售。
虽然特斯拉第三季度的自由现金流较上年有所增长，但基本都是得益于“碳信用额度”的售卖行为。于此同时，晨星的惠斯顿还指出了特斯拉的定价问题，他认为特斯拉的定价过高，不能满足大众的需求。
当然，更高的估值也就意味着更大的压力。“特斯拉的成就必须走在市场期待之前，目前特斯拉所要面对的是市场前所未有的积极预期以及来自四面八方的竞争对手，因此，无论是在生产端还是需求端，只要出现任何疏漏，特斯拉的股价就会遭受负面影响。”艾维斯补充道。
就算特斯拉的估值正在水涨船高，但艾维斯坚信电动车领域是一片潜力巨大的蓝海。“未来几年我们会将入电动车需求的黄金期，这就是为什么我相信特斯拉还能再涨。”（财富中文网）
编译:陈怡轩
According to some bullish voices on the Street, Tesla is only just getting started.
The stock has seen a torrid run so far in 2020, up nearly 490% this year and recently popping on the news of its long-awaited inclusion in the S&P 500 index—a move that, according to some analysts, now legitimizes the company in the eyes of institutional investors.
Yet bullish Dan Ives, managing director of equity research and an analyst at Wedbush Securities, is willing to bet the stock can go even higher. In fact, Ives raised his price target for Tesla on Sunday from $500 to $560, and upped his "bull case" from $800 to $1,000, which would represent an over 100% pop from the stock's current levels.
One reason? Electric vehicle demand "is really starting to inflect, especially in China," Ives tells Fortune. He notes globally 3% of auto sales are EV, and "We think that now has potential to be 10% by 2025. With Tesla being the clear leader, we believe China could represent 40% of sales by 2022, up from 15% today.”
Growing demand in China is a "rising tide [that's] going to lift all boats" for EV makers, says Wedbush's Ives, but he argues "this demand dynamic will disproportionately benefit" Tesla over the next few years, he wrote in a note Sunday. Specifically Ives likes what he calls Tesla's "Teflon-like" demand for its Model 3 vehicles in Europe and China, "while software driven upgrades (FSD, etc) have gone right to the bottom line," he writes. And its China market could see "eye popping demand into 2021 and 2022 across the board with Tesla's flagship Giga 3 footprint a major competitive advantage," he argues.
Stateside, Ives also thinks President-elect Joe Biden's victory could be a "potential bullish scenario" for EV investors because he expects "a more environmental-friendly platform, which could further boost EV credits as well as incentives for buying EV," he tells Fortune. And the same goes for Europe, where there's a heightened focus on reducing the carbon footprint and a regulatory push toward electric vehicles, notes Ives (and where the company is building out its Berlin factory).
Yet the Elon Musk-led company certainly has many risk factors for investors, one being its continued dependence on sales of regulatory emissions credits to other companies—creating what Morningstar's David Whiston recently called a "quality of earnings issue." In Tesla's third quarter, free cash flow grew from the previous year, but "got help" from emission credit sales, Morningstar's Whiston remarked in a recent note. Meanwhile Whiston points out another problem: "Tesla's product plans for now do not mean an electric vehicle for every consumer who wants one, because the prices are too high."
Indeed, Ives acknowledges that with Tesla's valuation at such heady levels, "They need to continue to execute ahead of the Street, there’s higher expectations, there’s competition coming from all angles, so any hiccups in either production or demand would be viewed as a clear negative for the stock," he says.
Notwithstanding Tesla's increasingly lofty valuation, Ives firmly believes EV demand will only ratchet up from here: "We’re in for a golden age of demand over the coming years, which is why I believe Tesla continues to get rerated going forward.”
