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想要振兴美国经济,拜登必须遵从“四字箴言”

想要振兴美国经济,拜登必须遵从“四字箴言”

Joe Crowley 2020年11月19日
无论振兴美国经济方式几何,创新都必将发挥核心作用。

新冠疫情还在继续,美国的经济也仍然遭受着重创。乔·拜登任职美国总统后,将如何促进经济振兴?他的战略几乎可以用一句四字箴言来概括——“美国制造”。

但仔细研究他的愿景就会发现,在疫情时代下,拜登用以复苏经济的实际措施将由另外三个关键词来定义:投资、供给和援助。

拜登已经通过明确的政策提议表明,想要摆脱美国经济目前面临的艰难处境,并走向复兴,需要重点关注本国经济的真正优势之一:创新。

拜登的经济复兴计划显示了对研发活动加大投资的强烈愿望,想要以此来刺激对国内商品和服务的需求,同时创造更高质量的就业机会。

他还提议,要对创新企业提供税收减免等激励措施,并大致规划了如何提供良好的经济运行环境、支持美国企业的活动,以便他们既能够在本国开展业务,也可以应对离岸外包的情形。

辉瑞/BioNTech和Moderna的疫苗研发都取得了喜人的成果,市场反弹,趋势向好——但这并不意味着经济将迎来真正的可持续发展。拜登的“经济复苏”是一项长期、持续的计划,旨在充分利用美国的创新力量,进一步增强其工业和科技能力。

拜登将现在的局面与第二次世界大战期间,美国经济迸发出的弹力相提并论——很明显,这说明他认识到了美国的中小企业(尤其是制造业)将在经济复苏中扮演重要的角色。

抗疫将是拜登政府的首要工作,但在应对疫情对经济产生的负面影响时,这些促进增长的策略也必将发挥作用。

首先,拜登提议通过联邦采购的方式,对美国工人生产的产品进行一笔4000亿美元的投资。拜登希望通过这项投资来刺激小企业的需求,并促进就业增长——这在许多方面折射出2009年《经济复苏法案》(Recovery Act)的影子,这项投资计划中包括购买价值数十亿美元的清洁车辆和产品,以及钢铁、水泥等原材料和其他设备等。

这项投资计划还承诺,政府将付费购买“先进技术”——这也表明,拜登政府对以人工智能、机器学习和电信通讯为中心的数字革命充满信心。

此外,拜登还支持联邦政府为研发活动直接提供资金。他提议在他的第一届任期内投资3000亿美元,用于推进5G和人工智能等关键的“新产业和技术”。

该提议的细节尚未完全披露,拜登的团队还另外提出了支持设立“信用透支”(credit facility)的主张,向中小型制造企业注入资金,助其实现现代化,增强竞争力。

这些支持措施的目的是确保美国能够推出新产品,保障美国仍然作为创新圣地,让下一个苹果、IBM、微软、SpaceX在这里诞生并蓬勃发展。

在拜登倡导的税收改革计划下,相应的减税和就业法案在短时间内还不太可能出现,但政府很可能会充分利用税收工具,让美国企业发挥杠杆作用,以增强经济活力。

具体来说,拜登团队称他们将“特别关注美国制造业的支柱,即全美数以千计的中小型制造商”。

为了鼓励增长和创新,拜登提议对投资于“关闭或快要关闭的设施、改造或扩充设施,以及将生产或服务产业带回美国”的公司实行10%的税收抵免。

税收抵免之外,拜登还提议对从事海外制造业务的公司征收10%的附加税,或将意味着相关企业所得税税率将提高至30.8%。这个信号很明确——对他来说,在国内实施创新是第一要务。

不过,拜登也已经暗示,这类激励措施不会只适用于某个特定行业。这位当选总统相信,提振所有美国中小企业的创新能力将是疫情经济救灾工作的核心。

拜登的上述税收激励及处罚措施似乎是朝着创造良好创新环境迈出的强有力的第一步,但迈出第一步之后,还有许多事情要做。拜登团队提议加强公私合作,甚至在劳动力发展项目上投资500亿美元——这很有必要,因为获得技术型劳动力在美国一直是一个难解之题。

创新支持系统的构建还将确保劳动力跟上新技术的快速发展。拜登似乎也理解这一点。

正如拜登个人平台所写:“作为总统,拜登将确保接受联邦资金的雇主提前通知所有受影响的雇员,告知他们工作场所的技术变革和自动化升级,让其雇员在新工作岗位上排在前列,并为雇员提供有偿技能培训,以便他们可以在新工作岗位上如鱼得水。”

但对民主党人来说,对参议院的控制不力又将成为下一个让人担心的点。为了让这些提议成为现实,拜登必须信守诺言,利用他曾经作为两党斡旋“端水”大师的优势。

首先,拜登应该着眼于已经从两党合作中受益的现有激励措施。研发税收抵免一直以来都是美国中小企业的福利,在两党看来也是刺激经济复苏的可行工具。

实际上,包括民主党参议员克里斯·库恩斯提议在内的几项两党立法,都是由共和党人通过的。众议院少数党领袖凯文·麦卡锡(加州共和党)和凯文·布雷迪(德克萨斯州共和党)最近的一篇专栏文章甚至表示支持将信贷额度加倍以促进更大的创新。

2008年金融危机爆发后,时任美国总统贝拉克·奥巴马受到了批评,人们认为他在推动经济强劲复苏方面举措不力——尽管他的政策已经足以缓解危机。拜登应该尽力避免类似批评的出现,将重点放在可持续经济增长上。

无论振兴美国经济的方式几何,创新都必将发挥核心作用。(财富中文网)

本文作者乔·克劳利是华盛顿Squire Patton Boggs的高级政策顾问、alliantgroup战略咨询委员会成员。1998年,克劳利代表纽约皇后区和布朗克斯区的部分地区首次当选国会议员。在国会期间,克劳利担任众议院民主党核心会议主席和众议院筹款委员会成员。

编译:陈聪聪、杨二一

新冠疫情还在继续,美国的经济也仍然遭受着重创。乔·拜登任职美国总统后,将如何促进经济振兴?他的战略几乎可以用一句四字箴言来概括——“美国制造”。

但仔细研究他的愿景就会发现,在疫情时代下,拜登用以复苏经济的实际措施将由另外三个关键词来定义:投资、供给和援助。

拜登已经通过明确的政策提议表明,想要摆脱美国经济目前面临的艰难处境,并走向复兴,需要重点关注本国经济的真正优势之一:创新。

拜登的经济复兴计划显示了对研发活动加大投资的强烈愿望,想要以此来刺激对国内商品和服务的需求,同时创造更高质量的就业机会。

他还提议,要对创新企业提供税收减免等激励措施,并大致规划了如何提供良好的经济运行环境、支持美国企业的活动,以便他们既能够在本国开展业务,也可以应对离岸外包的情形。

辉瑞/BioNTech和Moderna的疫苗研发都取得了喜人的成果,市场反弹,趋势向好——但这并不意味着经济将迎来真正的可持续发展。拜登的“经济复苏”是一项长期、持续的计划,旨在充分利用美国的创新力量,进一步增强其工业和科技能力。

拜登将现在的局面与第二次世界大战期间,美国经济迸发出的弹力相提并论——很明显,这说明他认识到了美国的中小企业(尤其是制造业)将在经济复苏中扮演重要的角色。

抗疫将是拜登政府的首要工作,但在应对疫情对经济产生的负面影响时,这些促进增长的策略也必将发挥作用。

首先,拜登提议通过联邦采购的方式,对美国工人生产的产品进行一笔4000亿美元的投资。拜登希望通过这项投资来刺激小企业的需求,并促进就业增长——这在许多方面折射出2009年《经济复苏法案》(Recovery Act)的影子,这项投资计划中包括购买价值数十亿美元的清洁车辆和产品,以及钢铁、水泥等原材料和其他设备等。

这项投资计划还承诺,政府将付费购买“先进技术”——这也表明,拜登政府对以人工智能、机器学习和电信通讯为中心的数字革命充满信心。

此外,拜登还支持联邦政府为研发活动直接提供资金。他提议在他的第一届任期内投资3000亿美元,用于推进5G和人工智能等关键的“新产业和技术”。

该提议的细节尚未完全披露,拜登的团队还另外提出了支持设立“信用透支”(credit facility)的主张,向中小型制造企业注入资金,助其实现现代化,增强竞争力。

这些支持措施的目的是确保美国能够推出新产品,保障美国仍然作为创新圣地,让下一个苹果、IBM、微软、SpaceX在这里诞生并蓬勃发展。

在拜登倡导的税收改革计划下,相应的减税和就业法案在短时间内还不太可能出现,但政府很可能会充分利用税收工具,让美国企业发挥杠杆作用,以增强经济活力。

具体来说,拜登团队称他们将“特别关注美国制造业的支柱,即全美数以千计的中小型制造商”。

为了鼓励增长和创新,拜登提议对投资于“关闭或快要关闭的设施、改造或扩充设施,以及将生产或服务产业带回美国”的公司实行10%的税收抵免。

税收抵免之外,拜登还提议对从事海外制造业务的公司征收10%的附加税,或将意味着相关企业所得税税率将提高至30.8%。这个信号很明确——对他来说,在国内实施创新是第一要务。

不过,拜登也已经暗示,这类激励措施不会只适用于某个特定行业。这位当选总统相信,提振所有美国中小企业的创新能力将是疫情经济救灾工作的核心。

拜登的上述税收激励及处罚措施似乎是朝着创造良好创新环境迈出的强有力的第一步,但迈出第一步之后,还有许多事情要做。拜登团队提议加强公私合作,甚至在劳动力发展项目上投资500亿美元——这很有必要,因为获得技术型劳动力在美国一直是一个难解之题。

创新支持系统的构建还将确保劳动力跟上新技术的快速发展。拜登似乎也理解这一点。

正如拜登个人平台所写:“作为总统,拜登将确保接受联邦资金的雇主提前通知所有受影响的雇员,告知他们工作场所的技术变革和自动化升级,让其雇员在新工作岗位上排在前列,并为雇员提供有偿技能培训,以便他们可以在新工作岗位上如鱼得水。”

但对民主党人来说,对参议院的控制不力又将成为下一个让人担心的点。为了让这些提议成为现实,拜登必须信守诺言,利用他曾经作为两党斡旋“端水”大师的优势。

首先,拜登应该着眼于已经从两党合作中受益的现有激励措施。研发税收抵免一直以来都是美国中小企业的福利,在两党看来也是刺激经济复苏的可行工具。

实际上,包括民主党参议员克里斯·库恩斯提议在内的几项两党立法,都是由共和党人通过的。众议院少数党领袖凯文·麦卡锡(加州共和党)和凯文·布雷迪(德克萨斯州共和党)最近的一篇专栏文章甚至表示支持将信贷额度加倍以促进更大的创新。

2008年金融危机爆发后,时任美国总统贝拉克·奥巴马受到了批评,人们认为他在推动经济强劲复苏方面举措不力——尽管他的政策已经足以缓解危机。拜登应该尽力避免类似批评的出现,将重点放在可持续经济增长上。

无论振兴美国经济的方式几何,创新都必将发挥核心作用。(财富中文网)

本文作者乔·克劳利是华盛顿Squire Patton Boggs的高级政策顾问、alliantgroup战略咨询委员会成员。1998年,克劳利代表纽约皇后区和布朗克斯区的部分地区首次当选国会议员。在国会期间,克劳利担任众议院民主党核心会议主席和众议院筹款委员会成员。

编译:陈聪聪、杨二一

Made in America. It seems those three words will define President-elect Joe Biden’s approach to rejuvenating an American economy that continues to be pummeled by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

But looking closer at his platform, it seems Biden’s actual approach to economic recovery in the face of the coronavirus will be defined by three other terms: invest, provide, and support.

Biden has made clear through policy proposals that the U.S. needs to kick-start its struggling economy through a heavy focus on one of America’s true strengths: innovation.

His plan shows a strong desire to invest in research and development activities in order to increase demand for domestic goods and services while creating high-quality jobs.

He has also laid out proposals to provide incentives such as tax credits for businesses that are innovating, and he outlined a path to support an economically viable environment for U.S. businesses to keep their operations here and combat offshoring.

Markets have rallied in response to reported positive results for the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, but that isn’t indicative of truly sustainable economic progress. Biden’s plan for lasting economic recovery leverages the power of innovation in the U.S. in an attempt to boost our industrial and technological capacities.

It’s clear that Biden recognizes the role that American small and midsize businesses, particularly in the manufacturing sector, will play in an economic rebound effort that he compares to our country’s resilience during World War II.

Tackling COVID-19 will be job No. 1 in the Biden administration, but these growth tactics are sure to play a role in combating the pandemic’s negative economic impact.

First, Biden’s proposals call for a $400 billion investment in federal purchases for products made by American workers. Biden hopes to both spur demand and increase job growth for small businesses through this investment, which will likely mirror the 2009 Recovery Act in many ways, and which will include the purchase of billions of dollars’ worth of clean vehicles and products, materials such as steel and cement, and other equipment.

The investment would also include a commitment to purchase advanced tech—a sign of his administration’s confidence in a digital revolution centered on artificial intelligence (A.I.), machine learning, and telecom.

Further, Biden has supported direct federal funding for research and development activities in the form of a $300 billion investment in his first term that would be directed toward the advancement of critical “new industries and technologies” such as 5G and A.I.

And, although the details of the proposal are not fully disclosed, Biden’s team has also thrown support behind the creation of a “credit facility” that will inject capital into small and midsize manufacturing firms in order for them to modernize and become more competitive.

These sorts of support measures are aimed at ensuring new products emerge from the U.S. and that America remains a mecca of innovation where the next Apple, IBM, Microsoft, or SpaceX can flourish.

Although addressing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the form of a Biden tax reform plan likely won’t be on the table for some time, the administration very likely will work to implement tax tools for American businesses to leverage in order to bolster economic viability.

Specifically, his team has claimed it will “put a special focus on the backbone of American manufacturing—the thousands of small and medium-sized manufacturers throughout the country.”

In order to encourage business growth and innovation, a Biden administration would push for a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in “revitalizing closed or nearly closed facilities, retooling or expanding facilities, and bringing production or service jobs back to the U.S.”

Alongside the tax credit, Biden has also pitched a 10% surtax for companies that offshore manufacturing operations that would seemingly increase the corporate tax rate to 30.8%. That’s a sure sign that for him, innovation in the homeland is priority No. 1.

Biden has signaled, however, that these types of incentives wouldn’t just be available to one specific industry. This is indicative of the President-elect’s belief that innovation efforts for all American small and midsize businesses will be central to relief efforts.

Biden’s approach to tax incentives and penalties seems to be a strong first step toward creating that environment, but more will need to be done. His team has proposed invigorating public-private partnerships, and even investing $50 billion in workforce development programs, a necessity when access to technical labor has been a consistent problem in the U.S.

Creating a support system for innovation will also involve ensuring that our workforce can keep pace with what will hopefully be a hare-paced development of new technologies. President-elect Biden seems to understand that.

As stated on his published platform, “As President, Biden will ensure that employers receiving federal funds give all affected employees advance notice of technology changes and automation in the workplace, put their employees at the front of the line for new jobs, and offer paid skills training so that employees can succeed in new jobs.”

For Democrats excited by the notion of a Biden presidency, the truth is that control of the Senate is a concern. In order for any of these proposals to become a reality, Biden will likely have to keep his word and leverage his past strengths as a master in bipartisanship.

To start, Biden should look toward existing incentives that already benefit from bipartisan support. The Research and Development Tax Credit has historically been a boon for American small and medium-size businesses, and has been recognized by members of both parties as a viable tool for spurring economic recovery.

In fact, several pieces of bipartisan legislation, including Sen. Chris Coons’ (D-Del.) Forward Act, advocate for strengthening the credit. A recent column from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) even signaled support for doubling the credit to foster greater innovation.

President Obama received criticism in the wake of the 2008 crash for not doing enough to generate a robust recovery, even though his efforts were enough to mitigate the crisis. Biden should work to avoid any chance of similar critiques by focusing heavily on creating tools for sustainable economic growth.

Regardless of the approach to reinvigorating the U.S. economy, innovation is sure to play a central role.

Joe Crowley is a senior policy adviser at Squire Patton Boggs in Washington and serves on alliantgroup’s Strategic Advisory Board. He was first elected to Congress in 1998 to represent portions of Queens and the Bronx in New York. While in Congress, Crowley served as chair of the House Democratic Caucus and a member of the House Committee on Ways and Means.

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