美国经济开始触底反弹？
虽然近日美国总统大选和新冠疫情的新闻铺天盖地让人无暇顾及其他，不过令人振奋的迹象显示，美国经济已经开始走出深渊。
关键词是“开始”。与9个月前相比，仍然有数百万美国人失业，航空公司、酒店、餐馆和零售业主体还是一蹶不振。多数预测者认为，美国GDP至少还要一年才能够恢复到疫情前的水平。然而，虽然基本上受到忽视，但复苏进程确实正在进行中，最大的问题是能否熬过冬天。
举例来说，很多人可能会惊讶地发现，美国人在今年9月购买的商品数量比疫情前的2月还多。人们在食品杂货、游戏、电脑、汽车、摩托车等方面的消费都有所增加。美国人突然间对宠物的痴迷不再只是趣闻，9月消费者在宠物和相关产品上的支出也比2月提升了12.6%。
各类商品（宠物除外）背后则是大量制造业，这也是为何11月2日美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）发布的美国制造业信心指数（U.S. Manufacturing Sentiment Index）相当亮眼，几乎让人震惊。该指数达到2018年9月以来最高水平，而当时原因是美国经济稳步增长。从一定程度上说，制造业崛起可以反映一些企业在重新补充库存，因为之前停产时库存很低，所以可能让人担心崛起是否可持续。不过订单积压指数也创下两年来的新高，表明在相当长一段时间内，工厂都要加紧开工。
这对就业来说肯定是好消息。10月新的ISM就业指数从收缩转为扩张，说明工厂增加的工作岗位多于裁员人数。而这还是大趋势下的一个侧面。“值得关注的是，尽管7月底增加的失业救济金已经用完，但随着就业增加个人可支配收入还是有所提升。”贝伦堡资本市场（Berenberg Capital Markets）的美洲和亚洲首席经济学家米基•利维表示。
你理解的没有错，9月美国人均可支配收入确实比疫情前多。
那么，现在还有问题吗？当然有。虽然消费者在积极购买商品，工厂也在努力生产，但服务业仍然深陷危机，而服务业是美国经济最大的一块。这也是9月在职人数比一年前少了1000万的原因。
服务业主要包括让人们聚集的业务，当前都受到疫情阻碍，包括零售业、运输业、休闲业、酒店业和教育业等。第二波疫情开始时，相关行业才刚刚开始复苏。新限制和禁令可能转变当前经济发展的趋势。例如，近日马萨诸塞州的州长查理•贝克就下令，要求餐馆、剧院、发廊、健身房等一系列场所提前结束营业。
这也意味着当前正处于关键时刻，而且不仅与大选有关。认真观察未来几周的趋势，可能就会得知明年1月宣誓就职的新总统将面临的是雨后春笋般复苏，还是秋风瑟瑟甚至风刀霜剑。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
虽然近日美国总统大选和新冠疫情的新闻铺天盖地让人无暇顾及其他，不过令人振奋的迹象显示，美国经济已经开始走出深渊。
关键词是“开始”。与9个月前相比，仍然有数百万美国人失业，航空公司、酒店、餐馆和零售业主体还是一蹶不振。多数预测者认为，美国GDP至少还要一年才能够恢复到疫情前的水平。然而，虽然基本上受到忽视，但复苏进程确实正在进行中，最大的问题是能否熬过冬天。
举例来说，很多人可能会惊讶地发现，美国人在今年9月购买的商品数量比疫情前的2月还多。人们在食品杂货、游戏、电脑、汽车、摩托车等方面的消费都有所增加。美国人突然间对宠物的痴迷不再只是趣闻，9月消费者在宠物和相关产品上的支出也比2月提升了12.6%。
各类商品（宠物除外）背后则是大量制造业，这也是为何11月2日美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）发布的美国制造业信心指数（U.S. Manufacturing Sentiment Index）相当亮眼，几乎让人震惊。该指数达到2018年9月以来最高水平，而当时原因是美国经济稳步增长。从一定程度上说，制造业崛起可以反映一些企业在重新补充库存，因为之前停产时库存很低，所以可能让人担心崛起是否可持续。不过订单积压指数也创下两年来的新高，表明在相当长一段时间内，工厂都要加紧开工。
这对就业来说肯定是好消息。10月新的ISM就业指数从收缩转为扩张，说明工厂增加的工作岗位多于裁员人数。而这还是大趋势下的一个侧面。“值得关注的是，尽管7月底增加的失业救济金已经用完，但随着就业增加个人可支配收入还是有所提升。”贝伦堡资本市场（Berenberg Capital Markets）的美洲和亚洲首席经济学家米基•利维表示。
你理解的没有错，9月美国人均可支配收入确实比疫情前多。
那么，现在还有问题吗？当然有。虽然消费者在积极购买商品，工厂也在努力生产，但服务业仍然深陷危机，而服务业是美国经济最大的一块。这也是9月在职人数比一年前少了1000万的原因。
服务业主要包括让人们聚集的业务，当前都受到疫情阻碍，包括零售业、运输业、休闲业、酒店业和教育业等。第二波疫情开始时，相关行业才刚刚开始复苏。新限制和禁令可能转变当前经济发展的趋势。例如，近日马萨诸塞州的州长查理•贝克就下令，要求餐馆、剧院、发廊、健身房等一系列场所提前结束营业。
这也意味着当前正处于关键时刻，而且不仅与大选有关。认真观察未来几周的趋势，可能就会得知明年1月宣誓就职的新总统将面临的是雨后春笋般复苏，还是秋风瑟瑟甚至风刀霜剑。（财富中文网）
译者：冯丰
审校：夏林
Hidden behind the high-profile news of the election and the pandemic, encouraging signs show how the U.S. economy is beginning to climb out of the deep hole it’s in.
The key word is “beginning.” Compared with nine months ago, millions more Americans are still jobless, and major industries—airlines, hotels, restaurants, much of retail—are still devastated. Most forecasters think we’re at least a year away from getting back to pre-pandemic GDP. Yet progress, largely overlooked, is underway, and the great question is whether it can survive the winter.
Many people might be surprised to learn, for example, that Americans bought more goods in September than they did in February before the coronavirus took hold. They shelled out more on a wide range of stuff—groceries, games, computers, cars, motorcycles, much else. The sudden national obsession with pets wasn’t just anecdotal: Consumers spent 12.6% more on pets and related products in September than in February.
It takes a lot of manufacturing to make all those goods (except the pets), which helps explain why the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. Manufacturing Sentiment Index, released on November 2, was almost shockingly positive. The index hit its highest level since September 2018, when the economy was growing steadily. The new surge in manufacturing partly reflects companies restocking inventories that ran low when some factories were shut down, so you might worry about whether the pace is sustainable. But the index of order backlogs hit a two-year high, suggesting factories will need to keep chugging for quite a while.
That’s good news for jobs. The new ISM employment index crossed from contraction to expansion in October, which means more manufacturers are adding jobs than cutting them. That’s part of a broader trend. “What’s so striking now is that even though the enhanced unemployment compensation ran out at the end of July, the increase in employment has pushed up disposable personal income,” says Mickey Levy, chief economist for the Americas and Asia at Berenberg Capital Markets.
You read that right: Americans had more disposable personal income per capita in September than they had just before the pandemic.
So is there really a problem? Of course there is. While consumers are buying goods and factories are cranking them out with vigor, the services sector is in crisis—and services are the largest part of the U.S. economy. That’s why 10 million fewer people had jobs in September than had them a year previously.
Services include the businesses that bring people together and that the pandemic has hobbled—retailing, transportation, leisure, hospitality, education. They were just beginning to revive when the second wave of COVID-19 began. The danger now is that new restrictions and lockdowns could reverse the economy’s progress. Yesterday, for example, Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker ordered a wide range of businesses—restaurants, theaters, hair salons, gyms, and others—to close early.
That means now is a critical moment, and it’s not just because of the election. The trend of the next few weeks may tell us whether the President taking the oath of office in January will face an economy with more green shoots emerging or one that’s wilted and frozen over.
