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怀疑比特币多年,如今公然唱多,摩根大通是怎么想的?

这家投行认为,比特币的价格将上涨两倍。

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摩根大通全球市场战略小组的一组分析师称赞千禧一代中比特币的崛起已经有取代黄金之势,而且认为如果当前趋势持续,比特币的价格可以“翻倍或涨至三倍”。

该预测在10月23日的一份研究简报中发表,由于摩根大通曾经非常质疑比特币,因此这一转变相当引人注意。2017年,该公司的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙称比特币为“欺诈”,而且表示如果手下有人交易比特币就解雇,因为“太愚蠢”。

摩根大通之所以突然看多,主要因为最近支付公司PayPal决定向客户提供比特币,Square也将价值5000万美元的比特币纳入资产负债表。不过,摩根大通转换立场的另一主要因素是越来越多年轻一代比起黄金更喜欢比特币。

“年长人群更喜欢黄金,而年轻人更喜欢把比特币当作‘替代’货币。”研究简报说。

分析师还观察到,如果该趋势持续,从长期来看黄金地位可能面临挑战,比特币价格也会受到重要影响。

“哪怕比特币作为‘替代’货币长期内逐步挤掉黄金,价格与现在相比也能够相比翻倍或涨到三倍。”该报告指出。

比特币现价在1.3万美元左右,远远低于2017年末加密泡沫时期的近2万美元历史高点,之后一年比特币跌至3400美元左右。不过,目前比特币价格上涨趋势较为稳健,突破1万美元大关后史无前例地连续三个月持续上涨。

千禧一代热爱比特币已经持续了一段时间。去年年底,嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的一项调查发现,与Netflix和迪士尼(Disney)等知名公司相比,主要经营比特币托管的Grayscale推出的比特币基金GBTC份额在年轻人中更受欢迎。与此同时,Grayscale还通过全美电视宣传活动“抛弃黄金”推动了比特币热潮。

然而,如果按照总投资额比例来看,黄金比起比特币仍然多出十倍多。正如摩根大通指出的,黄金与比特币ETF价值大致相等,但黄金总价值达2.6万亿美元(比特币则为2400亿美元),因为黄金主要持有方式为金条和硬币。

不过摩根大通似乎也保持谨慎,表示“短期来看,比特币有超买迹象,而且容易受到获利回吐行为影响。”但分析师们也补充说,由于比特币有支付功能,与黄金相比长期发展前景可能进一步提升。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

摩根大通全球市场战略小组的一组分析师称赞千禧一代中比特币的崛起已经有取代黄金之势,而且认为如果当前趋势持续,比特币的价格可以“翻倍或涨至三倍”。

该预测在10月23日的一份研究简报中发表,由于摩根大通曾经非常质疑比特币,因此这一转变相当引人注意。2017年,该公司的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙称比特币为“欺诈”,而且表示如果手下有人交易比特币就解雇,因为“太愚蠢”。

摩根大通之所以突然看多,主要因为最近支付公司PayPal决定向客户提供比特币,Square也将价值5000万美元的比特币纳入资产负债表。不过,摩根大通转换立场的另一主要因素是越来越多年轻一代比起黄金更喜欢比特币。

“年长人群更喜欢黄金,而年轻人更喜欢把比特币当作‘替代’货币。”研究简报说。

分析师还观察到,如果该趋势持续,从长期来看黄金地位可能面临挑战,比特币价格也会受到重要影响。

“哪怕比特币作为‘替代’货币长期内逐步挤掉黄金,价格与现在相比也能够相比翻倍或涨到三倍。”该报告指出。

比特币现价在1.3万美元左右,远远低于2017年末加密泡沫时期的近2万美元历史高点,之后一年比特币跌至3400美元左右。不过,目前比特币价格上涨趋势较为稳健,突破1万美元大关后史无前例地连续三个月持续上涨。

千禧一代热爱比特币已经持续了一段时间。去年年底,嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的一项调查发现,与Netflix和迪士尼(Disney)等知名公司相比,主要经营比特币托管的Grayscale推出的比特币基金GBTC份额在年轻人中更受欢迎。与此同时,Grayscale还通过全美电视宣传活动“抛弃黄金”推动了比特币热潮。

然而,如果按照总投资额比例来看,黄金比起比特币仍然多出十倍多。正如摩根大通指出的,黄金与比特币ETF价值大致相等,但黄金总价值达2.6万亿美元(比特币则为2400亿美元),因为黄金主要持有方式为金条和硬币。

不过摩根大通似乎也保持谨慎,表示“短期来看,比特币有超买迹象,而且容易受到获利回吐行为影响。”但分析师们也补充说,由于比特币有支付功能,与黄金相比长期发展前景可能进一步提升。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

A team of analysts at J.P. Morgan’s Global Markets Strategy group are touting Bitcoin’s emergence as an alternative to gold among millennials, suggesting a “doubling or tripling” in the price of the cryptocurrency if current trends continue.

The prediction, which came in a research note published on October 23, is remarkable given the bank’s onetime skepticism toward Bitcoin, which included CEO Jamie Dimon calling it a “fraud” in 2017 and saying he would fire anyone trading it for being “stupid.”

J. P. Morgan’s bullish stance is driven in part by PayPal’s recent decision to offer Bitcoin to its customers and Square’s recent move to add $50 million of the cryptocurrency to its balance sheet. Another major factor for its position, though, is the demographic trend in which younger generations are choosing Bitcoin over gold.

“The older cohorts prefer gold, while the younger cohorts prefer Bitcoin as an ‘alternative’ currency,” says the research note.

The analysts go on to observe that, if this trend continues, there could be a challenge to gold in the long term—with important price implications for Bitcoin.

“Even a modest crowding out of gold as an ‘alternative’ currency over the longer term would imply doubling or tripling of the Bitcoin price from here,” the note states.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $13,000. That falls well short of its all-time high of nearly $20,000, which occurred during the crypto bubble of late 2017, after which Bitcoin fell to around $3,400 the following year. The current price run-up has been more stable, however, with Bitcoin staying above the $10,000 mark for an unprecedented three-month stretch.

Millennials’ embrace of Bitcoin has been underway for a while. Late last year, a Charles Schwab survey found that shares of GBTC, from Grayscale—a company that holds Bitcoin in trust—were more popular among the cohort than famous names like Netflix and Disney. Meanwhile, Grayscale has been fanning the trend with a national TV campaign called “Drop Gold.”

As a percentage of total investment capital, however, gold still dwarfs Bitcoin by a factor of ten. As J.P. Morgan notes, the value of gold and Bitcoin ETFs are about equal, but the yellow metal is worth $2.6 trillion in total (versus $240 billion for Bitcoin) because large amounts of it are held in the form of bars and coins.

K. P. Morgan sounds a note of caution, though, observing that, “for the near term, Bitcoin looks rather overbought and vulnerable to profit taking we think.” But the analysts also add the long-term prospects for Bitcoin could further improve because of its utility as a payment mechanism compared with gold.

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