有了人工智能，这家饮料公司可以与可口可乐并驾齐驱
几十年来，美国的冷饮和热饮市场一直是各自独立的领域，各自都有其无可争议的龙头。可口可乐和百事长期以来占据了碳酸饮料近四分之三的市场份额，而星巴克则一直是“喝咖啡的首选”。这三大龙头对于大张旗鼓地合并冷热饮板块毫无兴趣。今年，消费经济陷入动荡，饮料市场也未能幸免，而鲜为人知的Keurig Dr Pepper却爆冷夺得了大量市场份额。
尽管KDP在美国软饮领域的市场份额不及可口可乐和百事的一半，但与去年相比，宅在家中的美国人消费的罐装和瓶装软饮品牌中，KDP所占比例与这两大巨头并驾齐驱。Consumer Edge数据显示，在截至7月26日的20个星期内，美国软饮市场销售总额增长14亿美元，其中KDP就占到了34.1%。而KDP的市场占有率也从22.7%提升至24.0%。Consumer Edge的分析师布雷特•库珀说：“在应对危机方面，KDP是所有饮料公司中做得最好的。”
两年前，咖啡生产商Keurig Green Mountain以187亿美元并购饮料制造商Dr Pepper Snapple，缔造了KDP，因此，作为“新人”的KDP的崛起格外引人注目。当年的这场交易堪称一场豪赌：整合各种经典品牌和高增长新品牌（这些品牌的产品种类远不及可口可乐、百事）并加以推广，由此打造一个比所有板块加起来更有实力的业务单元。
KDP的首席执行官鲍勃•甘戈特构想了这一战略，作为一名资深业内人士，他曾经肩负起Pinnacle Foods和Keurig Green Mountain的重振重任，但他的终极梦想却是创建“第一家现代饮料公司”。
卢森堡控股公司JAB的首席执行官奥利维尔•古德特表示：“我们给鲍勃提供了共计170亿美元的资金支持。首先，我们收购了Keurig，让他出任首席执行官，之后又收购了Dr Pepper Snapple。”JAB也在欧洲建立了一个咖啡帝国。（控股JAB的Reimanns家族是德国最富有的家族之一，与少数股东共同持有44%的KDP股份。）“这一切都押注在了鲍勃身上，因为他知道，无论是选择热饮还是冷饮，最后都只能够得到一半的结果。他最早发现了消费者模式在发生变化。”
甘戈特在几次长时间的电话交流中向《财富》杂志描述了他的蓝图。他说：“这个行业对饮品类的看法太狭隘了。星巴克有一半以上的饮品都含冰。需要午后提神的人可能会选择咖啡、Dr Pepper，或者我们的Adrenaline Shoc能量饮料。但业界和华尔街都把热饮和冷饮看作两个完全不同的领域。我们将这两块合并在一起的时候，所有人都百思不得其解。”他解释称，他的目标是打造尽可能广泛的产品阵容。58岁的甘戈特表示：“我们要尽可能地成为沃尔玛或亚马逊的重要供货商，为了实现这个目标，我们提供了满足所有消费者需求的产品组合。”
去年，KDP以111亿美元的营收位列美国第七大食品饮料公司。事实表明，对于公司而言，拥有一个能够源源不断带来可预测收益的广泛多样的产品组合，这在经济繁荣时期尚且可望而不可及，疫情期间更是如此。而这却可以说是KDP的垄断领域。2020年上半年，KDP营收强劲增长3%，达到55亿美元，调整后利润跃升11.7%至8.77亿美元。相比之下，从1月到6月，可口可乐的收入下降了15.4%，百事截至6月中旬的两个季度收益下降了6.0%。虽然KDP坚持其收益预期，承诺实现2020年初设定的业绩目标：销售额增长3%至4%，每股收益增长13%至15%。但受新冠疫情影响，可口可乐、星巴克等大多数食品饮料公司宣称，由于市场波动太大，业绩难以预测。
疫情之前，甘戈特就已经有逼近这些巨头之势，他感觉这场危机或许会对他有利，但前提是公司必须迅速转向，并接受这样的现实：前景将不大一样，消费者想要的东西也在发生变化，并且这种变化可能具有永久性。他说：“我们认为世界不会回归正常。我们打造了一张蓝图，那就是要接受并拥抱颠覆。”
3月初，KDP推出“互联面板”（即1万台家用咖啡机以电子方式链接至KDP数据中心），第一次让人们意识到：我们生活在一个新世界。甘戈特希望借此帮助Keurig Green Mountain纾困。联机的咖啡机使用视觉识别技术读取每个K-Cup咖啡粉囊的图片，以此识别品牌和口味，这样KDP就可以即刻看到家庭日咖啡消耗量的变化、消费者喜爱的咖啡品牌和拼配方式。甘戈特表示：“通过时刻都在变化的数据，我们可以看到，人们逐渐离开城市、宅在家中，咖啡消费量大幅飙升。”这些咖啡方面的数据也显示了软饮料领域的变化。甘戈特称：“我们知道很少有人会停下来在加油站、当地商店或餐馆买饮料。”他紧接着预计，在宅经济形势下，人们会在沃尔玛、克罗格这些可以一次性大量采购的大型超市囤积碳酸饮料。
甘戈特表示：“我们预测消费者会需要大量的罐装饮料，因为罐装饮料方便存放在车库里。罐装比瓶装更新鲜，并且小孩和大人都可以一次抽一罐出来。”问题来了，甘戈特发现，他的国内易拉罐供应商产量根本无法满足需求。但奇迹般地是，墨西哥政府宣布啤酒是一种非必需品，关闭了啤酒工厂，这样当地的易拉罐制造商就有了大量产能。甘戈特回忆道：“我们抓住了这个机会。我们对墨西哥的生产商说：‘你们有多少我们要多少。’竞争对手的易拉罐用完了。我们获得了易拉罐。”
KDP加大了一箱12罐隔层纸板包装的12盎司易拉罐的产能，并削减了饮料瓶的产量。不仅如此，KDP还采用了店铺直接配送（DSD）的模式，这就意味着在全美四分之三的地区，KDP的6000辆货车将货物从160个配送中心直接运送到7-11、克罗格等大小门店。之后再由KDP业务员将装载各品牌饮料的U型推车推至饮料区手动上货。业务员通常一周要去大型超市补货数次，历时三四个小时。他们向KDP数据中心传输即时更新的销售情况和销售速度。甘戈特说：“如果你只是发货到零售商的仓库，你不会得到这样的数据，而且要等上一周的时间才能够了解售卖情况，到那时就晚了。”
其他趋势也在不断涌现。Canada Dry姜汁汽水、A&W草根啤酒等经典产品的需求大幅上涨。KDP南部分销网络的负责人霍兰德•卢扬表示：“我们增加了畅销品，并大幅减少了销售速度较慢的品种。”工厂降低了七喜和轻怡Squirt的产量。因为重心向畅销品转移，业务员的效率也变得更高。过去货盘要装载55个品种，现在只要装15个，品种少了，数量自然就变多了，上架时间也随之缩短。
咖啡也遵循同样的模式。用剃须刀和刀片打比方，剃须刀的售价非常便宜，几乎没有利润可言，商家以此来吸引消费者购买利润丰厚的刀片，而KDP的Keurig咖啡机就相当于“剃须刀”，而“刀片”则是K-Cup咖啡粉囊。据估计，KDP每年生产超过100亿个咖啡粉囊，市场份额高达82%。KDP将采购回来的咖啡豆研磨成粉，装入粉囊，然后配送给Green Mountain、Original Donut Shop等品牌自有门店，以及包括麦当劳（McDonald’s）的麦咖啡（McCafé）、Newman’s Own、Krispy Kreme（同时也为星巴克和Dunkin’ Donuts灌装咖啡粉囊）在内的20多个授权门店。一旦咖啡粉囊的消费量飙升，甘戈特就会“先于零售订单把工厂产能调至最高。不等销量出现上涨就先增加库存。”联网的咖啡机数据还显示，消费者更偏好优质咖啡，这或许是因为当消费者买不到3美元的星巴克咖啡时，他们往往会乐意花70美分买一杯极品K-Cup胶囊咖啡。同样，KDP大幅增加了Green Mountain等主打咖啡的产量，并暂停生产小众品牌的咖啡。家庭K-Cup咖啡粉囊的销量最高峰时比去年高出30%，对于咖啡这样一款增幅通常为中等个位数的产品来说，这个增幅非常了不起。
对于自称挑战者的甘戈特来说，现在的问题是如何实现两个由缓慢到适度扩张的业务的强劲增长。到目前为止，KDP已经成功地将3%左右的营收增速转化为调整后的15%的收益增长。但利润的大幅跃升主要通过降低开支以及并购省下的大额开支来实现。到2021年年底成本削减结束之际，甘戈特将需要获得更高的收入增长。KDP董事、玛氏公司前全球总裁保罗•迈克尔斯说：“甘戈特想要的是5%到6%的年销售增幅，而不是业内常态的每年几个百分点。”本世纪初，保罗•迈克尔斯曾经是甘戈特的老板兼导师。
对饮料行业而言，这样的增速是一个很高的门槛。疫情期间，动作频频的KDP市场占有率上升了1%以上，很有可能KDP要回吐一部分，而KDP股票一年来的表现也证明了华尔街给出的这一预测。
但展望未来，甘戈特所占优势包括：第一，从2021年左右开始，KDP将偿还足够的债务，可以利用其强大的自由现金流进行收购。事实证明，甘戈特过去就擅长收购和发展品牌；他通过收购Greenies等品牌建立了玛氏的宠物食品特许经营权，成为Ralston Purina的竞争对手；通过收购Birds Eye蔬菜、Evol天然餐食和植物性蛋白食品制造商Gardein，甘戈特重振了Pinnacle老旧的的投资组合，进军健康冷冻食品领域。
其次，甘戈特认识到，发展K-Cup咖啡粉囊业务的目的就是要让Keurig咖啡机走进更多的家庭。为了吸引更多消费者，他大幅降低了咖啡饮品和机器的价格，销售额受到暂时冲击；在此过程中，美国拥有咖啡机的家庭数量翻了一番，达到目前的3100万户，差不多占全美家庭的四分之一。这就留下了很大的发展空间：在欧洲，超过50%的家庭都有咖啡机。疫情期间美国消费者口味的变化可能会持续下去。
第三，“口味”领域(非可乐类碳酸饮料)的增长速度已经高于整个软饮料板块1个百分点以上。增加新口味可以额外提振老品牌。口感辛辣的Canada Dry Bold和Dr Pepper & Cream Soda奶油苏打汽水有望加入快增长行列。
第四个优势就是Allied Brands，收购企业家或私人玩家通常持有的品牌(比如饮料界传奇人物兰斯•科林斯发明的运动饮料Adrenaline Shoc，或杰克•斯坦菲尔德的Don’t Quit!蛋白奶昔)。过去Dr Pepper Snapple会负责这些品牌的分销业务，但倘若这些品牌一跃成为畅销品，Dr Pepper Snapple可能并没有机会收购这些品牌，相反，这些品牌可能会成为可口可乐等大公司的囊中之物。甘戈特再一次打破了这种模式。只有在品牌所有者同意给予KDP基于预定公式的购买权的基础上，甘戈特才会将该品牌纳入Allied Brand。
拥抱未来的不确定性，这或许就是甘戈特最大的优势。他说：“我们的竞争对手辗转反侧，希望回归现状，但这是不可能的。”这种打破常规的大胆之举让KDP成为了饮料行业最为津津乐道的谈资。（财富中文网）
本文另一版本登载于《财富》杂志2020年11月刊，标题为《Keurig是一台机器》。
译者：唐尘
几十年来，美国的冷饮和热饮市场一直是各自独立的领域，各自都有其无可争议的龙头。可口可乐和百事长期以来占据了碳酸饮料近四分之三的市场份额，而星巴克则一直是“喝咖啡的首选”。这三大龙头对于大张旗鼓地合并冷热饮板块毫无兴趣。今年，消费经济陷入动荡，饮料市场也未能幸免，而鲜为人知的Keurig Dr Pepper却爆冷夺得了大量市场份额。
尽管KDP在美国软饮领域的市场份额不及可口可乐和百事的一半，但与去年相比，宅在家中的美国人消费的罐装和瓶装软饮品牌中，KDP所占比例与这两大巨头并驾齐驱。Consumer Edge数据显示，在截至7月26日的20个星期内，美国软饮市场销售总额增长14亿美元，其中KDP就占到了34.1%。而KDP的市场占有率也从22.7%提升至24.0%。Consumer Edge的分析师布雷特•库珀说：“在应对危机方面，KDP是所有饮料公司中做得最好的。”
两年前，咖啡生产商Keurig Green Mountain以187亿美元并购饮料制造商Dr Pepper Snapple，缔造了KDP，因此，作为“新人”的KDP的崛起格外引人注目。当年的这场交易堪称一场豪赌：整合各种经典品牌和高增长新品牌（这些品牌的产品种类远不及可口可乐、百事）并加以推广，由此打造一个比所有板块加起来更有实力的业务单元。
KDP的首席执行官鲍勃•甘戈特构想了这一战略，作为一名资深业内人士，他曾经肩负起Pinnacle Foods和Keurig Green Mountain的重振重任，但他的终极梦想却是创建“第一家现代饮料公司”。
卢森堡控股公司JAB的首席执行官奥利维尔•古德特表示：“我们给鲍勃提供了共计170亿美元的资金支持。首先，我们收购了Keurig，让他出任首席执行官，之后又收购了Dr Pepper Snapple。”JAB也在欧洲建立了一个咖啡帝国。（控股JAB的Reimanns家族是德国最富有的家族之一，与少数股东共同持有44%的KDP股份。）“这一切都押注在了鲍勃身上，因为他知道，无论是选择热饮还是冷饮，最后都只能够得到一半的结果。他最早发现了消费者模式在发生变化。”
甘戈特在几次长时间的电话交流中向《财富》杂志描述了他的蓝图。他说：“这个行业对饮品类的看法太狭隘了。星巴克有一半以上的饮品都含冰。需要午后提神的人可能会选择咖啡、Dr Pepper，或者我们的Adrenaline Shoc能量饮料。但业界和华尔街都把热饮和冷饮看作两个完全不同的领域。我们将这两块合并在一起的时候，所有人都百思不得其解。”他解释称，他的目标是打造尽可能广泛的产品阵容。58岁的甘戈特表示：“我们要尽可能地成为沃尔玛或亚马逊的重要供货商，为了实现这个目标，我们提供了满足所有消费者需求的产品组合。”
去年，KDP以111亿美元的营收位列美国第七大食品饮料公司。事实表明，对于公司而言，拥有一个能够源源不断带来可预测收益的广泛多样的产品组合，这在经济繁荣时期尚且可望而不可及，疫情期间更是如此。而这却可以说是KDP的垄断领域。2020年上半年，KDP营收强劲增长3%，达到55亿美元，调整后利润跃升11.7%至8.77亿美元。相比之下，从1月到6月，可口可乐的收入下降了15.4%，百事截至6月中旬的两个季度收益下降了6.0%。虽然KDP坚持其收益预期，承诺实现2020年初设定的业绩目标：销售额增长3%至4%，每股收益增长13%至15%。但受新冠疫情影响，可口可乐、星巴克等大多数食品饮料公司宣称，由于市场波动太大，业绩难以预测。
疫情之前，甘戈特就已经有逼近这些巨头之势，他感觉这场危机或许会对他有利，但前提是公司必须迅速转向，并接受这样的现实：前景将不大一样，消费者想要的东西也在发生变化，并且这种变化可能具有永久性。他说：“我们认为世界不会回归正常。我们打造了一张蓝图，那就是要接受并拥抱颠覆。”
3月初，KDP推出“互联面板”（即1万台家用咖啡机以电子方式链接至KDP数据中心），第一次让人们意识到：我们生活在一个新世界。甘戈特希望借此帮助Keurig Green Mountain纾困。联机的咖啡机使用视觉识别技术读取每个K-Cup咖啡粉囊的图片，以此识别品牌和口味，这样KDP就可以即刻看到家庭日咖啡消耗量的变化、消费者喜爱的咖啡品牌和拼配方式。甘戈特表示：“通过时刻都在变化的数据，我们可以看到，人们逐渐离开城市、宅在家中，咖啡消费量大幅飙升。”这些咖啡方面的数据也显示了软饮料领域的变化。甘戈特称：“我们知道很少有人会停下来在加油站、当地商店或餐馆买饮料。”他紧接着预计，在宅经济形势下，人们会在沃尔玛、克罗格这些可以一次性大量采购的大型超市囤积碳酸饮料。位于得克萨斯州欧文市的Keurig Dr Pepper工厂生产的轻怡七喜。图片版权：Michael Riddell—Courtesy of KDRP
甘戈特表示：“我们预测消费者会需要大量的罐装饮料，因为罐装饮料方便存放在车库里。罐装比瓶装更新鲜，并且小孩和大人都可以一次抽一罐出来。”问题来了，甘戈特发现，他的国内易拉罐供应商产量根本无法满足需求。但奇迹般地是，墨西哥政府宣布啤酒是一种非必需品，关闭了啤酒工厂，这样当地的易拉罐制造商就有了大量产能。甘戈特回忆道：“我们抓住了这个机会。我们对墨西哥的生产商说：‘你们有多少我们要多少。’竞争对手的易拉罐用完了。我们获得了易拉罐。”
KDP加大了一箱12罐隔层纸板包装的12盎司易拉罐的产能，并削减了饮料瓶的产量。不仅如此，KDP还采用了店铺直接配送（DSD）的模式，这就意味着在全美四分之三的地区，KDP的6000辆货车将货物从160个配送中心直接运送到7-11、克罗格等大小门店。之后再由KDP业务员将装载各品牌饮料的U型推车推至饮料区手动上货。业务员通常一周要去大型超市补货数次，历时三四个小时。他们向KDP数据中心传输即时更新的销售情况和销售速度。甘戈特说：“如果你只是发货到零售商的仓库，你不会得到这样的数据，而且要等上一周的时间才能够了解售卖情况，到那时就晚了。”
其他趋势也在不断涌现。Canada Dry姜汁汽水、A&W草根啤酒等经典产品的需求大幅上涨。KDP南部分销网络的负责人霍兰德•卢扬表示：“我们增加了畅销品，并大幅减少了销售速度较慢的品种。”工厂降低了七喜和轻怡Squirt的产量。因为重心向畅销品转移，业务员的效率也变得更高。过去货盘要装载55个品种，现在只要装15个，品种少了，数量自然就变多了，上架时间也随之缩短。
咖啡也遵循同样的模式。用剃须刀和刀片打比方，剃须刀的售价非常便宜，几乎没有利润可言，商家以此来吸引消费者购买利润丰厚的刀片，而KDP的Keurig咖啡机就相当于“剃须刀”，而“刀片”则是K-Cup咖啡粉囊。据估计，KDP每年生产超过100亿个咖啡粉囊，市场份额高达82%。KDP将采购回来的咖啡豆研磨成粉，装入粉囊，然后配送给Green Mountain、Original Donut Shop等品牌自有门店，以及包括麦当劳（McDonald’s）的麦咖啡（McCafé）、Newman’s Own、Krispy Kreme（同时也为星巴克和Dunkin’ Donuts灌装咖啡粉囊）在内的20多个授权门店。一旦咖啡粉囊的消费量飙升，甘戈特就会“先于零售订单把工厂产能调至最高。不等销量出现上涨就先增加库存。”联网的咖啡机数据还显示，消费者更偏好优质咖啡，这或许是因为当消费者买不到3美元的星巴克咖啡时，他们往往会乐意花70美分买一杯极品K-Cup胶囊咖啡。同样，KDP大幅增加了Green Mountain等主打咖啡的产量，并暂停生产小众品牌的咖啡。家庭K-Cup咖啡粉囊的销量最高峰时比去年高出30%，对于咖啡这样一款增幅通常为中等个位数的产品来说，这个增幅非常了不起。
对于自称挑战者的甘戈特来说，现在的问题是如何实现两个由缓慢到适度扩张的业务的强劲增长。到目前为止，KDP已经成功地将3%左右的营收增速转化为调整后的15%的收益增长。但利润的大幅跃升主要通过降低开支以及并购省下的大额开支来实现。到2021年年底成本削减结束之际，甘戈特将需要获得更高的收入增长。KDP董事、玛氏公司前全球总裁保罗•迈克尔斯说：“甘戈特想要的是5%到6%的年销售增幅，而不是业内常态的每年几个百分点。”本世纪初，保罗•迈克尔斯曾经是甘戈特的老板兼导师。
对饮料行业而言，这样的增速是一个很高的门槛。疫情期间，动作频频的KDP市场占有率上升了1%以上，很有可能KDP要回吐一部分，而KDP股票一年来的表现也证明了华尔街给出的这一预测。
但展望未来，甘戈特所占优势包括：第一，从2021年左右开始，KDP将偿还足够的债务，可以利用其强大的自由现金流进行收购。事实证明，甘戈特过去就擅长收购和发展品牌；他通过收购Greenies等品牌建立了玛氏的宠物食品特许经营权，成为Ralston Purina的竞争对手；通过收购Birds Eye蔬菜、Evol天然餐食和植物性蛋白食品制造商Gardein，甘戈特重振了Pinnacle老旧的的投资组合，进军健康冷冻食品领域。
其次，甘戈特认识到，发展K-Cup咖啡粉囊业务的目的就是要让Keurig咖啡机走进更多的家庭。为了吸引更多消费者，他大幅降低了咖啡饮品和机器的价格，销售额受到暂时冲击；在此过程中，美国拥有咖啡机的家庭数量翻了一番，达到目前的3100万户，差不多占全美家庭的四分之一。这就留下了很大的发展空间：在欧洲，超过50%的家庭都有咖啡机。疫情期间美国消费者口味的变化可能会持续下去。
第三，“口味”领域(非可乐类碳酸饮料)的增长速度已经高于整个软饮料板块1个百分点以上。增加新口味可以额外提振老品牌。口感辛辣的Canada Dry Bold和Dr Pepper & Cream Soda奶油苏打汽水有望加入快增长行列。
第四个优势就是Allied Brands，收购企业家或私人玩家通常持有的品牌(比如饮料界传奇人物兰斯•科林斯发明的运动饮料Adrenaline Shoc，或杰克•斯坦菲尔德的Don’t Quit!蛋白奶昔)。过去Dr Pepper Snapple会负责这些品牌的分销业务，但倘若这些品牌一跃成为畅销品，Dr Pepper Snapple可能并没有机会收购这些品牌，相反，这些品牌可能会成为可口可乐等大公司的囊中之物。甘戈特再一次打破了这种模式。只有在品牌所有者同意给予KDP基于预定公式的购买权的基础上，甘戈特才会将该品牌纳入Allied Brand。
拥抱未来的不确定性，这或许就是甘戈特最大的优势。他说：“我们的竞争对手辗转反侧，希望回归现状，但这是不可能的。”这种打破常规的大胆之举让KDP成为了饮料行业最为津津乐道的谈资。（财富中文网）
本文另一版本登载于《财富》杂志2020年11月刊，标题为《Keurig是一台机器》。
译者：唐尘
For decades, the worlds of cold and hot beverages in the U.S. have remained separate domains, each dominated by undisputed champions. In carbonated soft drinks, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have long shared almost three-quarters of the market, while Starbucks has reigned as the place to go for coffee. None of the three stalwarts are even lukewarm about combining hot and cold segments in a big way. But in a beverage market as roiled as every other part of the consumer economy is this year, a surprise winner—little-known Keurig Dr Pepper—is taking gallons of market share.
Though KDP is less than half the size of Coke and Pepsi in U.S. soft drinks, it is running neck and neck with the two giants in the share of the extra cans and bottles thirsty stay-at-home Americans are quaffing versus last year. In the 20-week period ended July 26, KDP has grabbed 34.1% of the $1.4 billion increase in revenue for all U.S. carbonated soft drinks, according to Consumer Edge. That boosted its overall market share from 22.7% to 24.0%. “KDP has done the best job of any beverage company in navigating the crisis,” says Consumer Edge analyst Brett Cooper.
KDP’s rise is especially remarkable because it’s a new enterprise formed just over two years ago via the $18.7 billion merger of coffee purveyor Keurig Green Mountain and soda maker Dr Pepper Snapple. The deal was a giant bet that by assembling and promoting a broad portfolio of classic names and high-growth newcomers in categories much smaller than Coke’s or Pepsi’s colas or Starbucks’ coffee brand, KDP could create a business more powerful than the sum of its parts.
That strategy is the brainchild of KDP’s CEO, Bob Gamgort, an industry lifer who revived two struggling franchises, Pinnacle Foods and Keurig Green Mountain, but whose ultimate dream was building what he bills as “the first modern beverage company.”
“We backed Bob with a total of $17 billion. First, when we bought Keurig and brought him in as CEO, then when we bought Dr Pepper Snapple,” says Olivier Goudet, CEO of JAB, the Luxembourg holding company that has also assembled a coffee empire in Europe. (It’s backed by the Reimanns, one of Germany’s wealthiest families, and along with minority partners holds 44% of KDP’s shares.) “It was all a wager on Bob, because he knew choosing hot or cold was getting only half of the picture. He sees consumer patterns changing before anyone else.”
Over several long phone conversations, Gamgort described his blueprint to Fortune. “The industry viewed beverages much too narrowly,” he says. “Over half of Starbucks’ drinks have ice in them. When someone needs a boost in the afternoon, they may choose a coffee, or a Dr Pepper or our Adrenaline Shoc energy drink. Yet the industry and Wall Street looked at hot and cold as two completely different segments. When we merged, no one got it.” His goal, he explains, was to create the broadest possible lineup. “We need to be as important as possible to a Walmart or Amazon, and we get there by offering a portfolio that meets every consumer need,” says Gamgort, 58.
At $11.1 billion in revenue last year, KDP ranked as the seventh-largest food and beverage company in America. But the company has cornered something that has proved elusive to companies in the best of times, but especially during a pandemic: a broad, diversified portfolio that has churned out predictable earnings. For the first six months of 2020, revenues rose a sturdy 3% to $5.5 billion, while adjusted profits jumped 11.7% to $877 million. By contrast, Coke’s income dropped 15.4% from January to June, and Pepsi earnings were down 6.0% in the two quarters ending in mid-June. While KDP stuck to its earnings guidance, pledging to meet the 3% to 4% revenue and 13% to 15% earnings-per-share targets set in early 2020, the fog of COVID prompted Coke, Starbucks, and most other food and beverage players to declare the market too mercurial to forecast.
Gamgort was gaining on the giants pre-COVID and had a feeling the crisis could work in his favor, but only if the company pivoted fast and accepted that the future would be different and that what consumers wanted was changing, probably for good. “We didn’t think the world would return to normal,” he says. “We forged a blueprint that makes disruption our friend.”
The first signal that we were living in a new world came in early March from KDP’s “connected panels,” the 10,000 at-home brewers linked electronically to its data centers. It was Gamgort who introduced the panels as part of his Keurig Green Mountain rescue plan. The connected brewers read the image of every K-Cup pod to identify the brand and flavor using visual recognition technology, so that KDP sees instantly any change in the daily cups families are drinking, and the names and blends they prefer. “We saw this minute-by-minute data showing people were leaving the cities and sheltering in place and that coffee consumption was through the roof,” says Gamgort. That data from the at-home coffee side also showed what was coming in soft drinks. “We knew few people would be stopping to buy drinks at gas stations or local stores or in restaurants,” says Gamgort. He immediately anticipated that in the stay-at-home economy, families would be stockpiling soda by purchasing where they could buy big quantities in a single trip, at the megastores such as Walmart and Kroger.
“We predicted they’d want big packs of cans, because they’re easiest to store in the garage,” says Gamgort. “Cans stay fresher than bottles, and the kids and adults can pull out a can at a time.” The rub was that Gamgort saw no way his domestic can suppliers could possibly make enough of them. Miraculously, the Mexican government declared beer a nonessential product, shuttering factories and leaving the local canmakers with loads of capacity. “We pounced on that opportunity,” recalls Gamgort. “We told the producers in Mexico, ‘We’ll take all the cans you can give us.’ Competitors ran out of cans. We got the cans.”
KDP ramped up production of 12-packs of cardboard-bound 12-ounce cans and cut back on bottles. KDP employs a direct-store-delivery or DSD model, meaning that in three-quarters of the nation, KDP’s 6,000 trucks deliver shipments from 160 distribution centers directly to stores as varied as a 7-Eleven to a Kroger. Then, a KDP merchandiser wheels a “U-boat” cart carrying the brands to the beverage aisle and personally stocks the shelves. The merchandisers often visit a big store several times a week for three or four hours. They transmit up-to-the-minute updates on what’s selling and how fast to KDP’s data centers. “If you just ship to the retailer’s warehouse, you don’t get that kind of data and don’t realize for another week what’s selling. By then it’s too late,” says Gamgort.
Other trends were emerging too. Demand for classics such as Canada Dry ginger ale and A&W root beer took off. “We cranked up the bestsellers and made a lot less of the slower moving varieties,” says Holand Lujan, who heads KDP’s distribution network in the South. Factories cut way back on Cherry 7 Up and Diet Squirt. But the swing to big sellers made the merchandisers more productive. The pallets that used to contain 55 separate items were carrying as few as 15, in much bigger quantities, cutting the time required to stock shelves.
Coffee followed the same pattern. The company’s Keurig brewers are the bargain “razor” sold near breakeven to lure customers to the lucrative “blades,” KDP’s K-Cup pods. KDP produces an estimated 10 billion-plus pods a year, an astounding 82% of the total market. It buys and grinds the coffee, fills the pods, and distributes to stores both for brands it owns, led by Green Mountain and Original Donut Shop, and under some two dozen names it licenses, among them McDonald’s McCafé, Newman’s Own, and Krispy Kreme (it also packs the pods for Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts). Once Gamgort saw customer pod usage spike, “I turned our factories to maximum output, way in advance of retail orders. We were watching inventories build when we hadn’t seen any sales yet.” The connected brewers also showed that people were drinking much more premium coffee, perhaps because when you’re not getting a $3 cup at Starbucks, you’re fine spending 70¢ on a gourmet K-Cup. Once again, KDP greatly increased production of such staples as Green Mountain, and temporarily halted production in niche brands. At the peak, at-home K-Cup pod sales were running 30% higher than last year, an extraordinary number for a product that grows in the mid–single digits.
The question now for the self-professed challenger is how to achieve strong growth in two slow-to-modestly expanding businesses. So far, KDP has managed to translate revenues waxing at around 3% into adjusted earnings gains in the 15% range. But it’s generating those outsize leaps in profits chiefly by lowering expenses and reaping big savings from the merger. When cost cutting runs its course by the close of 2021, Gamgort will need to garner much higher revenue growth. “He wants sales growth of 5% to 6% a year, not the couple of points a year that are the norm in the business,” says Paul Michaels, a KDP director and former global president of Mars, where he was Gamgort’s boss and mentor in the 2000s.
In beverages, that’s a high bar. It’s likely that KDP will give back at least part of the big 1%-plus gain in market share that its jackrabbit moves won in the pandemic, something Wall Street anticipates as evidenced by the stock’s flatline performance over the past year.
But looking ahead, Gamgort has several things working in his favor. First, starting around 2021 KDP will have retired enough debt that it can use its formidable free cash flow for acquisitions. Gamgort proved to be a master at purchasing and growing brands in the past; he built Mars’ pet food franchise to rival Ralston Purina’s through acquisition of Greenies and other names and revitalized Pinnacle’s tired portfolio with a move into healthy frozen foods via the purchases of Birds Eye vegetables, Evol natural meals, and Gardein, maker of plant-based protein foods.
Second, Gamgort recognized that getting Keurig brewers in more households was what growing K-Cup pods was all about. He sharply cut the prices of the cups and machines, taking a temporary hit to sales to lure more customers, and in the process doubled the number of U.S. homes with brewers to the current 31 million, representing about one household in four. That leaves plenty of room to run: In Europe, over 50% of all homes have brewers. Here, the changes in customer tastes in the pandemic are likely to stick.
Third, the “flavors” sector (carbonated drinks that aren’t colas) is already growing a point or more faster than soft drinks as a whole. Adding new flavors to old-line brands can provide an extra lift. Two promising entries off to fast starts are spicy Canada Dry Bold, and Dr Pepper & Cream Soda.
The fourth lever is called Allied Brands, which acquires names typically owned by entrepreneurs or private players (think Adrenaline Shoc, a sports drink invented by beverage legend Lance Collins, or Don’t Quit! protein shakes from Jake “Body by Jake” Steinfeld). In the past, the old Dr Pepper Snapple would distribute such brands but didn’t secure the rights to buy them if they took off, and would often lose out to Coke or another big bidder. Once again, Gamgort broke the mold. He’ll offer to make a new beverage an Allied Brand only if the owner agrees to give KDP the right to purchase it based on a predetermined formula.
But perhaps the best thing Gamgort has going for him is that he’s embracing—rather than dreading—the uncertainty that lies ahead. “Our rivals are rolling over and hoping that the status quo returns, and it’s not returning,” he says. That paradigm-busting audacity has given KDP the biggest caffeine buzz in beverages.
A version of this article appears in the November 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline, “Keurig is a machine.”
