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美财报季已至,3/4最高市值公司放弃预测未来

美财报季已至,3/4最高市值公司放弃预测未来

Shawn Tully 2020年10月17日
这将是自金融危机最严重的2009年第二季度以来的最大降幅。

各家公司从本周起开始公布第三季度业绩,想知道我们能够期待些什么吗?新冠肺炎疫情给公司行为带来的最令人震惊的变化之一是,标准普尔500指数成份股公司中有一半没有给投资者提供任何执导信息。华尔街给这些股票的估值这么高,这些标普巨头对收益走势的信心看上去却远低于投资者,令人担心。

FactSet公司调查了华尔街分析师对标普500指数成分股公司的利润前景展望,并在一份新报告中披露了相关细节。FactSet通过研究收益报告、投资者演示和会议记录来收集数据。报告发现,在进入第二季度时,285家通常会提供投资者指引的标普500成分股公司中,有不少于184家要么撤回了之前的预测,要么拒绝提供2020年或2021年的预测,几乎所有公司的理由都是疫情造成的不确定性。令人震惊的是,美国市值最高的公司中有四分之三(他们往往以能预判未来走势为荣)认为未来存在很大变数而放弃了预测。

但在第二季度财报季(也就是公司在该季度结束后向投资者发布收益报告和其他信息的时候),提供业绩指引的标普成分股公司从101家增至138家,增加了37%。但是,在284家传统上会提供业绩指引的公司中,只有48%的公司发布指引,超过半数的公司仍然因为市场的不确定性而没有恢复对业绩预期的讨论。

总体而言,在第二季度财报季发布业绩指引的138家公司比上一季度的至暗时期乐观得多。相较于第一季度,59家公司上调了每股收益预期,41家保持不变,只有26家公司的预期低于三个月前或更早的预测(第一季度有12家公司没有提供预测)。企业对未来的信心存在明显行业差异。指数中37家每年都提供指引的非必需消费品公司只有33家仍然在发布预测,58家工业股中有超过一半放弃了预测,2/3的医疗保健股以及29家公用事业公司要么从未停止、要么重新恢复了他们的前瞻性预测。

消费品领域退出预测的公司包括可口可乐(Coca-Cola)、Constellation Brands、惠而浦(Whirlpool)、通用磨坊(General Mills)和达登餐厅(Darden Restaurants),还有工业企业雷神(Raytheon)、霍尼韦尔(Honeywell)、空气化工(Air Products & Chemicals)和通用汽车(General Motors)。另一方面,沃尔格林博姿(Walgreens Boots)、江森自控(Johnson Controls)、摩托罗拉解决方案(Motorola Solutions),特别是包括贝迪医疗(Becton Dickinson)、Quest Diagnostics和Anthem在内的一系列医疗保健巨头,都恢复了发布业绩指引。

标普成分股公司预测未来形势会好转,这显然令华尔街欢欣鼓舞。接受FactSet调查的分析师预计第三季度每股收益将比去年同期下降20.5%,但比6月30日的预测降幅好5个百分点。不过,这将是自金融危机最严重的2009年第二季度以来的最大降幅。前方的道路现在更加清晰,但仍然困难重重。想一想标普成分股公司如今的巨额估值——即便估值的基础是2019年创纪录的收益——看上去投资者似乎忽视了危险时期的坑坑洼洼和坎坷崎岖。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

各家公司从本周起开始公布第三季度业绩,想知道我们能够期待些什么吗?新冠肺炎疫情给公司行为带来的最令人震惊的变化之一是,标准普尔500指数成份股公司中有一半没有给投资者提供任何执导信息。华尔街给这些股票的估值这么高,这些标普巨头对收益走势的信心看上去却远低于投资者,令人担心。

FactSet公司调查了华尔街分析师对标普500指数成分股公司的利润前景展望,并在一份新报告中披露了相关细节。FactSet通过研究收益报告、投资者演示和会议记录来收集数据。报告发现,在进入第二季度时,285家通常会提供投资者指引的标普500成分股公司中,有不少于184家要么撤回了之前的预测,要么拒绝提供2020年或2021年的预测,几乎所有公司的理由都是疫情造成的不确定性。令人震惊的是,美国市值最高的公司中有四分之三(他们往往以能预判未来走势为荣)认为未来存在很大变数而放弃了预测。

但在第二季度财报季(也就是公司在该季度结束后向投资者发布收益报告和其他信息的时候),提供业绩指引的标普成分股公司从101家增至138家,增加了37%。但是,在284家传统上会提供业绩指引的公司中,只有48%的公司发布指引,超过半数的公司仍然因为市场的不确定性而没有恢复对业绩预期的讨论。

总体而言,在第二季度财报季发布业绩指引的138家公司比上一季度的至暗时期乐观得多。相较于第一季度,59家公司上调了每股收益预期,41家保持不变,只有26家公司的预期低于三个月前或更早的预测(第一季度有12家公司没有提供预测)。企业对未来的信心存在明显行业差异。指数中37家每年都提供指引的非必需消费品公司只有33家仍然在发布预测,58家工业股中有超过一半放弃了预测,2/3的医疗保健股以及29家公用事业公司要么从未停止、要么重新恢复了他们的前瞻性预测。

消费品领域退出预测的公司包括可口可乐(Coca-Cola)、Constellation Brands、惠而浦(Whirlpool)、通用磨坊(General Mills)和达登餐厅(Darden Restaurants),还有工业企业雷神(Raytheon)、霍尼韦尔(Honeywell)、空气化工(Air Products & Chemicals)和通用汽车(General Motors)。另一方面,沃尔格林博姿(Walgreens Boots)、江森自控(Johnson Controls)、摩托罗拉解决方案(Motorola Solutions),特别是包括贝迪医疗(Becton Dickinson)、Quest Diagnostics和Anthem在内的一系列医疗保健巨头,都恢复了发布业绩指引。

标普成分股公司预测未来形势会好转,这显然令华尔街欢欣鼓舞。接受FactSet调查的分析师预计第三季度每股收益将比去年同期下降20.5%,但比6月30日的预测降幅好5个百分点。不过,这将是自金融危机最严重的2009年第二季度以来的最大降幅。前方的道路现在更加清晰,但仍然困难重重。想一想标普成分股公司如今的巨额估值——即便估值的基础是2019年创纪录的收益——看上去投资者似乎忽视了危险时期的坑坑洼洼和坎坷崎岖。(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

Wondering what to expect as companies begin to report Q3 earnings this week? One of the most stunning changes in corporate practices brought on by COVID is that half of the companies in the S&P 500 have given investors nothing to go on. Given the big valuations Wall Street is awarding their stocks, it's worrying that the giants of the S&P are a lot less confident about where earnings are headed than investors appears to be.

The details are revealed in a new report from FactSet, the firm that polls Wall Street analysts on their outlook for the S&P 500 profits. FactSet studied earnings releases, investor presentations, and conference transcripts to assemble its data. It found that as the second quarter progressed, no fewer than 184 of the 285 of the S&P members that historically furnish guidance either withdrew their previous forecasts, or declined to provide projections for 2020 or 2021, almost all citing uncertainly caused by the pandemic. An astounding three-out-of-four of America's big cap stalwarts—that typically pride themselves on tracing the path ahead—deemed the future so mercurial that they gave up.

But during the Q2 season––meaning the period after the quarter's close when companies provided earnings releases and additional information in presentations to investors––the roster of S&P members providing guidance jumped from 101 to 138, an increase of 37%. Still, only 48% of the 284 regular guidance-givers are back in the game, while over half remain too unsure to resume insights into their pipeline for earnings.

In general, the 138 companies giving guidance after the close of Q2 were a lot more optimistic than in the dark, post-third quarter period. Fifty-nine raised their EPS forecasts over Q1 season, 41 stayed the same, and only 26 expect numbers lower than they were projecting three or so months earlier (12 gave no guidance in the Q1 season). Companies' confidence in what lies ahead varies enormously by industry. Only 33 of the 37 index's consumer discretionary members that year after year provided guidance are still issuing predictions, and over half of the 58 industrials withdrew, while two-thirds of health care cohort, and every one of the 29 utilities, either never suspended, or have reinstated their forward-looking pronouncements.

Among the consumer goods dropouts are Coca-Cola, Constellation Brands, Whirlpool, General Mills, and Darden Restaurants, joined by industrials Raytheon, Honeywell, Air Products & Chemicals, and General Motors. On the other hand, Walgreens Boots, Johnson Controls, Motorola Solutions and especially a parade of healthcare giants that include Becton Dickinson, Quest Diagnostics, and Anthem all restored guidance.

The increase in the ranks of the S&P forecasting better times ahead has apparently cheered Wall Street. The analysts surveyed by FactSet now foresee a decline in EPS of 20.5% versus Q3 of last year, five points better than the drop forecast on June 30. Nevertheless, that would be the steepest fall since Q2 of 2009 in the depths of the financial crisis. The road ahead is now clearer, but it's still plenty rocky. Given the S&P's gigantic valuation––even based on 2019's record earnings––it looks like investors are ignoring the potholes and soft shoulders at their peril.

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