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美国商务部前部长:搞不定疫情,经济好不起来

美国商务部前部长:搞不定疫情,经济好不起来

Robert Hackett 2020年10月15日
彭妮•普利茨克认为,除非处理好新冠病毒危机,否则不可能实现复苏。

如果乔•拜登上任,对经济有何影响?

随着美国总统大选的投票日临近,每个人脑中都会想到这个问题。根据政治倾向不同,有些人担心,有些人则希望这位前副总统实施激进的左倾改革。其他有些人希望,也有人担心他找麻烦。

美国商务部的前部长彭妮•普利茨克曾经在奥巴马政府任职,比大多数人更了解拜登的议程。身为拜登的高级经济顾问之一,普利茨克相当有话语权。此外,普利茨克还是凯悦酒店家族继承人、微软董事会成员、芝加哥PSP Partners投资公司创始人,能够精准把握商业和投资者受到的影响。

《财富》杂志采访了普利茨克,请她分享对11月后经济前景的看法。她认为,除非处理好新冠病毒危机,否则不可能实现复苏。以下是她对未来几个月的期望。为了简明起见,对话经过了编辑和精简。

《财富》:11月会发生什么?

佩妮•普里茨克:我支持拜登-贺锦丽组合,这不是什么秘密。拜登组合确定性更高也更稳定。他对解决新冠危机制定了计划,对推动经济的想法也很棒。从根本上说,我相信乔•拜登会是一位称职的总统。他打算创造数百万个高薪工作。高盛和穆迪的报告称,拜登的经济计划将比唐纳德•特朗普多创造700多万个就业机会。

特朗普总统最近在推特(Twitter)上说,投票给民主党就是支持大规模增税、经济封锁,还会导致失业。谁说得对?

特朗普没有提及自己的执政情况。他想让我们在评价他时把橄榄球比赛当作只有三个赛季,而不是四个赛季。过去六个月里,联邦政府出现了史上最严重的管理不善。美国损失了上千万个工作岗位。由于并未推出有效的疫情应对策略,而且对专家意见也置若罔闻,结果是数百万美国人失业。

失去的岗位还能够恢复么?

有些可能不行,其他应该还有机会。请记住,大衰退后创造的就业机会中,有25%在休闲和酒店领域。人们渴望旅行。但人们要多了解数字领域的知识,提升相关素质。如果要继续创造就业机会,必须确保人们做好准备。

拜登施政会有何不同?

拜登将在研发等重要领域加大投资。目前美国研发投入接近GDP的0.6%,降至1955年以来最低水平。如果在研发上投入如此少,如何在全球范围内竞争并确保领先地位?我们要成为人工智能、量子、电动汽车、清洁能源、5G和宽带领域的领导者。这些都是未来的技术,也是当下需要投入的技术。

贸易摩擦如何处理?

跟中国的贸易摩擦并未奏效。特朗普承诺减少贸易逆差,然而今年夏天美国对中国和墨西哥的国际贸易逆差创下历史新高。这些是乔•拜登将要面对的问题。

美国商务部接替你担任部长的罗斯对流行的中国应用程序TikTok和微信发布禁令。白宫称这些软件对国家安全造成威胁。你建议如何处理?

国家安全必须保护,问题是怎么做?直接禁止可能现在感觉不错,但推演接下来的五六步再看看。对现在使用TikTok的1亿用户来说,有什么影响?关键在于制定计划实现想要的结果。

你认为有没有比完全禁止更好的方法?

有更细致的方法。肯定无法一夜就实现,需要结合强有力的举措和外交手段。需要谈判。其实很复杂,我认为可以做到两全其美。只是需要能够付诸实施的政府。

身为微软董事会成员,你对甲骨文和沃尔玛突然加入收购TikTok,还有可能获胜有没有感觉失望?

我真没法发表评论。感谢你的询问。

面对大选的不确定性和可能出现的新一波疫情,你想跟读者分享什么建议?

我给自己的建议是,首先确保当前实际掌握的别出问题。确保你掌管的企业资本充足,可以顺利度过波动。现在,我们身处极度不确定的时期。我预测疫情还会持续一段时间。同时要接受新的想法。世界正在以前所未有的速度利用新技术。要充分抓住这个机会。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

如果乔•拜登上任,对经济有何影响?

随着美国总统大选的投票日临近,每个人脑中都会想到这个问题。根据政治倾向不同,有些人担心,有些人则希望这位前副总统实施激进的左倾改革。其他有些人希望,也有人担心他找麻烦。

美国商务部的前部长彭妮•普利茨克曾经在奥巴马政府任职,比大多数人更了解拜登的议程。身为拜登的高级经济顾问之一,普利茨克相当有话语权。此外,普利茨克还是凯悦酒店家族继承人、微软董事会成员、芝加哥PSP Partners投资公司创始人,能够精准把握商业和投资者受到的影响。

《财富》杂志采访了普利茨克,请她分享对11月后经济前景的看法。她认为,除非处理好新冠病毒危机,否则不可能实现复苏。以下是她对未来几个月的期望。为了简明起见,对话经过了编辑和精简。

《财富》:11月会发生什么?

佩妮•普里茨克:我支持拜登-贺锦丽组合,这不是什么秘密。拜登组合确定性更高也更稳定。他对解决新冠危机制定了计划,对推动经济的想法也很棒。从根本上说,我相信乔•拜登会是一位称职的总统。他打算创造数百万个高薪工作。高盛和穆迪的报告称,拜登的经济计划将比唐纳德•特朗普多创造700多万个就业机会。

特朗普总统最近在推特(Twitter)上说,投票给民主党就是支持大规模增税、经济封锁,还会导致失业。谁说得对?

特朗普没有提及自己的执政情况。他想让我们在评价他时把橄榄球比赛当作只有三个赛季,而不是四个赛季。过去六个月里,联邦政府出现了史上最严重的管理不善。美国损失了上千万个工作岗位。由于并未推出有效的疫情应对策略,而且对专家意见也置若罔闻,结果是数百万美国人失业。

失去的岗位还能够恢复么?

有些可能不行,其他应该还有机会。请记住,大衰退后创造的就业机会中,有25%在休闲和酒店领域。人们渴望旅行。但人们要多了解数字领域的知识,提升相关素质。如果要继续创造就业机会,必须确保人们做好准备。

拜登施政会有何不同?

拜登将在研发等重要领域加大投资。目前美国研发投入接近GDP的0.6%,降至1955年以来最低水平。如果在研发上投入如此少,如何在全球范围内竞争并确保领先地位?我们要成为人工智能、量子、电动汽车、清洁能源、5G和宽带领域的领导者。这些都是未来的技术,也是当下需要投入的技术。

贸易摩擦如何处理?

跟中国的贸易摩擦并未奏效。特朗普承诺减少贸易逆差,然而今年夏天美国对中国和墨西哥的国际贸易逆差创下历史新高。这些是乔•拜登将要面对的问题。

美国商务部接替你担任部长的罗斯对流行的中国应用程序TikTok和微信发布禁令。白宫称这些软件对国家安全造成威胁。你建议如何处理?

国家安全必须保护,问题是怎么做?直接禁止可能现在感觉不错,但推演接下来的五六步再看看。对现在使用TikTok的1亿用户来说,有什么影响?关键在于制定计划实现想要的结果。

你认为有没有比完全禁止更好的方法?

有更细致的方法。肯定无法一夜就实现,需要结合强有力的举措和外交手段。需要谈判。其实很复杂,我认为可以做到两全其美。只是需要能够付诸实施的政府。

身为微软董事会成员,你对甲骨文和沃尔玛突然加入收购TikTok,还有可能获胜有没有感觉失望?

我真没法发表评论。感谢你的询问。

面对大选的不确定性和可能出现的新一波疫情,你想跟读者分享什么建议?

我给自己的建议是,首先确保当前实际掌握的别出问题。确保你掌管的企业资本充足,可以顺利度过波动。现在,我们身处极度不确定的时期。我预测疫情还会持续一段时间。同时要接受新的想法。世界正在以前所未有的速度利用新技术。要充分抓住这个机会。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

What would a Joe Biden presidency mean for the economy?

It’s a question that hangs on everyone’s mind as poll day approaches. Some people fear—or hope, depending on political inclinations—the former vice president will make radical leftward changes. Others wish—or worry—he’ll not rock the boat.

Penny Pritzker, former secretary of commerce under Obama, has a closer view than most into Biden’s agenda. As one of his top economic advisers, Pritzker is uniquely situated to weigh in. Also, as a scion of the Hyatt Hotels family fortune, Microsoft board member, and founder of the Chicago-based PSP Partners investment firm, Pritzker has a nonpareil grasp on the implications for business and investors.

Fortune asked Pritzker to share her thoughts about the economic outlook, post-November. She believes recovery can’t happen until the COVID-19 crisis is effectively handled. Here is what she expects in the months ahead. The conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Fortune: What’s going to happen in November?

Penny Pritzker: It’s no secret I'm on the Biden-Harris team. Biden represents greater certainty and stability. He has a plan to address the COVID crisis. He’s got a terrific economic plan. I fundamentally believe Joe Biden is a good jobs President. He has a plan to create millions of good-paying jobs. Reports from Goldman Sachs and Moody's say Biden's economic plan will create more than 7 million more jobs than Donald Trump.

President Trump recently tweeted that a vote for the Democrats is a vote for massive tax increases, economics shutdowns, and job losses. Who's right?

Donald Trump is not running on his track record. He wants us to judge him as if the football game only has three quarters, not four quarters. We've had the worst federal mismanagement in our history over the last six months. That’s cost us tens of millions of jobs. By not having an effective COVID strategy and by being dismissive of the experts, we're stuck in a situation where millions of Americans are out of work.

Are the lost jobs ever coming back?

Some may not. Others will, for sure. Remember, 25% of the jobs created after the Great Recession were in leisure and hospitality. People are itching to travel. But people are going to need to be more digitally astute and better trained. If we’re going to continue to create jobs, we have to make sure that our people are prepared for them.

What will Biden do differently?

Biden will invest in important things, like R&D. Our R&D investment is near 0.6% of GDP, which is the lowest level since 1955. How are we expected to compete globally, and be in the lead, if we're spending that little on R&D? We need to be a leader in A.I., in quantum, electric vehicles, clean energy, 5G, and broadband. These are the technologies of the future, but they're also the technologies of now.

What about the trade war?

The trade war with China has not worked. Trump promised to reduce our trade deficit, but instead our global trade deficit in goods with China and with Mexico hit all-time highs this summer. These are the things Joe Biden will stand up against.

Your successor at the Commerce Department, Secretary Ross, is issuing bans on popular Chinese apps TikTok and WeChat. The White House says they are national security threats. How would you recommend handling this predicament?

We have to protect our national security—the question is, how? A ban may feel good in the moment, but let's play this out five or six plays ahead. How will this work for the 100 million people using TikTok today? Having a plan to achieve your desired outcome is critical.

And you think there are better ways than an outright ban?

There are more nuanced approaches. It's not something that can be done overnight. It requires a combination of forceful behavior and diplomacy. It requires negotiation. It's complicated, but I think we can achieve both. But you need a government that's capable of doing that.

As a board member of Microsoft, were you disappointed that Oracle and Walmart swooped in as the likely winners of the TikTok acquisition contest?

I really can't comment on that. But I appreciate you asking.

With the uncertainty of an election looming alongside fears of new waves of coronavirus infections, what parting words of advice might you share with our readers?

The advice I try to give myself is first make sure you take care of what you've got. Make sure the businesses you own are well capitalized and can survive the volatility. Right now, we're in a period of extreme uncertainty. I predict that will continue for a while until we get through this pandemic. Also, be open to new ideas. The world is adopting technology at a pace it has never done before. Make sure you're taking advantage of those opportunities.

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