立即打开
这十只股票将不受美国总统大选影响

这十只股票将不受美国总统大选影响

Anne Sraders 2020年10月15日
很多投资者将目光瞄向那些自带防御能力的股票。

 
 

图片来源:ILLUSTRATION BY JAMIE CULLEN

2020年,投资者们可谓是应接不暇。

首先是新冠肺炎疫情,让众多投资者感到措手不及。然后我们又迎来了压力满满的夏季,期间,全球经济一路跛行,从迅速复苏发展成为缓慢反弹。如今,距离这个分化严重的美国总统大选投票还有不到一个月的时间,一些人对其结果充满担忧,他们不知道拜登的胜出或特朗普的继任会对其手中持有的股票带来什么样的影响。

这种焦虑部分说明,人们对于扑朔迷离的大选结果可能对市场带来的影响感到异常担心。这类不确定性很有可能意味着股市在短期内会动荡不堪。确实,一些投资者已经在购买期货、期权和其他衍生工具,如果股市在大选日之后立即出现大幅震荡,投资者便可以从这些工具中受益。其他人则像往常一样出现了些许无助感,他们不知道这两位候选者在医疗、高科技公司法规、税收以及贸易方面的立场是否会在未来影响其资产组合。

然而,像资产管理公司Vontobel Quality Growth的首席投资官马特•本肯多夫这样的老手则从现实分析着手,给了这些焦虑人士一颗定心丸。本肯多夫向《财富》杂志透露:“我认为选举影响通常都被过于夸大了。实际上,如果我们回顾历史,大选本身并不像人们所想的那样,会对市场带来如此大的影响。最终影响股价的依然是经济的基本健康度和增速以及企业的利润增长状况。”

当然,当前的经济远谈不上健康,而且经济需要多长才能够恢复到疫情前水平亦充满了诸多不确定性。资金管理公司通常都已经敲定了少数几个应该避而远之的重点领域(例如,在《财富》杂志采访的一些人士中,大多数都会规避金融和能源行业)。很多人建议将目光瞄向那些自带防御能力的股票:不妨想想那些呈稳定增长态势、可以提供可靠股息收益的公司的股票。

当然,从资产组合优化角度来讲,这也并非在说这场白宫角逐大戏毫无影响。拜登的当选可能意味着公司税收负担的增加,但政府开支也有可能增加,而特朗普的连任可能会导致贸易摩擦的加剧,但税收负担可能会减少。在短期内,Nuveen的全球股票负责人塞拉•马利克认为最大的风险来自于这场大选竞赛所带来的市场波动。但马利克认为,市场从长远来看将回归温和增长,也就是达到类似于疫情前的水平。

考虑到这一点,正如马利克提到的,问题如今变成了,“如果你不想押注其中的任何一个阵营,人们在短线和长线操作时应该购买什么股票?”为了帮助投资者回答这个问题,《财富》杂志询问了四位顶级资产组合经理,让他们推荐有助于尽可能地抵御选举影响、有望在未来四年或更长时间内有着不俗表现的股票组合。

专注于消费者

在经济中,有没有某个板块不会受到2020年选举的影响?那就是消费开支。尽管就业和收入遭到了疫情的冲击,而且像旅游这类可选活动的开支出现了暴跌,但消费开支依然占到了经济的约70%。

因此,资产组合经理正在搜寻消费经济中稳步增长、有望在各种环境中表现良好而且能够承载新消费趋势的公司。在这些公司中,大多数都属于日常消费品类目。马利克解释说:“这类公司有这个抵御能力,它们会因为其生产的产品获得良好的业绩,而且这些产品在任何情况下都是必须品。人们可以在这些领域获得一些收益。”(收益是投资者尤为渴望追逐的事物:由于不管谁入主白宫,利率至少在2023年之前都会停留在零点水平,而且标普500公司平均股息收益业已下滑至1.7%,因此高额股息支付公司显然要更具吸引力。)

在这类股票中,马利克推荐家居改善零售商家得宝的主要竞争对手劳氏(Lowe’s,股票代码:LOW,股价171美元)。她十分欣赏该股票1.4%的收益率,而且事实上该公司已经为服务这个再次振兴的房屋市场做好了准备。由于更多的人都因为其住所可能会成为其工作场所而投资家居环境,马利克认为劳氏将迎来“一系列有利的因素”。尤为值得一提的是,她相信该公司会受益于自身公司网站升级带来的电商业务崛起、供应链改善带来的成本控制,及其专业受众的回归(因为更多的客户再次选择使用承包商)。(马利克更喜欢劳氏而不是家得宝的原因在于前者的市盈率要低得多。)

Jensen Investment Management董事总经理兼资产组合经理埃瑞克•斯科恩斯腾则推荐百事公司(PepsiCo,股票代码:PEP,股价138美元),因为其派息收益达到了3%。但他认为,股票并非只是“因为收益率而获得收益”。他说:“这些公司实现了真正的增长、营收、盈利和现金流。”尽管百事所称的“家庭之外”的销售额(斯科恩斯腾称占其总销售额约35%到40%)在今年因为棒球体育馆和餐馆等场所的关闭而受到了冲击,但斯科恩斯腾认为,其便利店和居家产品(包括居家零食产品,例如Quaker Oats和Cheetos)在一定程度上帮助减少了损失。未来,他预计百事将实现中值到高值个位数的营收增速。

基建潮

DWS Group的美国业务首席投资官大卫•比扬卡认为:“不管谁入主白宫,很多人认为基础设施将成为大选后的热点行业。”两党都赞成应该加大对基础设施的投资,而且比扬卡“并不怀疑美国国会可能会因此而出台某种形式的投资方案。”然而比扬卡认为,这并非是祖父时代的那种“基础设施”。它不仅仅是道路和桥梁,同时还包括“新经济结构,在我看来就是智能电网、5G通讯。”

比扬卡认为,即便存在政治不确定性,有一个领域具有“唾手可得的不俗回报”,那就是公用设施。他表示,公用设施是“非常成熟、可靠的创收业务”,同时他认为在未来,电子公司在5G技术的推出方面会发挥尤为重要的作用:“电线杆由公用设施公司所有,而且它们将在安装5G蜂窝系统方面发挥重要的作用,而且随着时间的推移还将获得一些场地租赁收益。”

这类趋势有可能会提振电网和可再生能源领域的大拿NextEra Energy(股票代码:NEE,股价301美元)。该公司股票远期市盈率约为30倍,派息收益率为1.8%。NextEra是公用设施公司Florida Power & Light与Gulf Power的母公司,而且重点专注于清洁能源。即便没有通常伴随民主党总统而来的清洁能源支持,公司在共和党政府的领导下也一直处于增长当中。NextEra的首席执行官詹姆斯•罗博在最近的电话会议上宣布:“我们一直在对我们的业务进行定位,以获得成功,并摆脱大选结果的影响。”

Nuveen的马利克还说,她预计大选之后会出现基建潮。这对于Terex(股票代码:TEX,股价25美元)来说应该是一个好消息,该公司致力于生产建造行业空中作业平台和设备。公司受到了新冠疫情和经济衰退的严重冲击,其营收在过去12个月中的跌幅超过了25%。然而公司的股价依然居高不下,其持续运营静态平均市盈率约为35倍(该行业当前的平均水平为21倍)。马利克认为,Terex是“一名幸存者”,而且相信公司的空中作业平台部门(占到其销售额的60%至65%)将出现预期的反弹,继而成为Terex营收恢复的“首要引擎”。她重点提到了Terex强劲的资产负债情况,并指出“公司在2024年之前没有到期债务,同时还拥有正现金流。”她还称赞了首席执行官约翰•加里森通过在2019年出售吊车等部门来精简公司的举措。她说:“这家公司将在一段时间内回归正常营收,并度过经济衰退。”

可以肯定的是,提升基建投资和财政支出并非既成事实,而且很多投资者希望能够确认其股票不会受累于政府增加开支的举措。这也是为什么Jensen的斯科恩斯腾对3M(股票代码:MMM,股价168美元)青睐有加的原因。这家业务多元化的行业巨头生产的产品包括飞机、运输、铁路和商用车组件(当然还有个人防护设备)。斯科恩斯腾表示:“该公司不同的部门可以携手并进,在逆境中相互扶持,在顺境中共同成长。”他认为3M的业务模式“略显得更有韧性”的原因在于,它并非“完全依靠大量的刺激性支出”,但也能够从中受益。此外,公司的股价相对便宜,其远期市盈率为19倍,其股息收益为3.5%。

令人惊讶的领域:科技与医疗

在众多受大选影响最严重的领域中,被种种新闻和政治辞令弄的头昏脑胀的投资者可能会想到这两个领域。医疗可能会出现一些大的变化,例如,从保险“公众选择”的增加到白宫降低药价的举措。与此同时,科技公司因为其规模和市场影响力而受到了决策者们的批评,而且一些投资者越来越意识到,这些公司的股价已经过高。然而,资产组合经理依然看到了不少机会,这些机会应该有助于其规避任何重大不利因素,且无需考虑阵营的问题。

例如,DWS的比扬卡并不认为哪一个政党(西部科技公司与东部科技公司之间存在竞争,我并不认为美国政客会采取举措来削弱西部科技公司的竞争能力)会“出台任何刁难科技公司的立法”。

然而,一些大型科技公司比其他公司更加脆弱。这也是为什么本肯多夫选择微软(Microsoft,股票代码:MSFT,股价211美元)的原因,因为该公司“当前都不在两党炮火的射程范围之内”,然而像亚马逊这类同行则有着不同的待遇。本肯多夫认为,考虑到微软拥有稳步增长的软件购买业务,欣欣向荣的云平台Azure,以及最近的各种收购,“虽然微软的股票表现还不错,但该公司将继续被人们低估,也得不到应有的赏识。”微软远期市盈率为32倍,其估值与众多高高在上的同行相距甚远。

Jensen的斯科恩斯腾同样认为,微软“能够免受一些监管问题的困扰”。他指出,科技巨头在20年前便面临着这些困难,但依然活了下来。他认为微软的工具和产品(包括其商业交流平台Teams)正在帮助人们“适应居家工作环境”。斯科恩斯腾估计,这一境况在未来几年中可能会持续,受此影响,公司可能会迎来低值双位数的营收增长。

本肯多夫认为,医疗保健是另一个投资者可能过于关注“新闻标题恐惧”的领域。他说:“人们可能会想:‘哦,我的天哪,如果民主党当选,什么什么事情就会发生。’”但“说到能够为客户带来巨大价值的绝佳业务,我认为医疗设备依然是一个相对安全的行业。”

符合本肯多夫条件的其中一家公司是美敦力(Medtronic,股票代码:MDT,股价108美元),他认为这家医疗设备制造商属于“安全、经营良好、稳健、可预测的成长型企业”。公司生产的设备包括起搏器和胰岛素泵,其远期市盈率约为22倍,低于行业平均水平。本肯多夫称,美敦力的Micra AV设备(一款无线微型起搏器)呈现出了强劲的增长势头。他还认为公司的新首席执行官杰奥夫•玛莎正“寻求将更多的自主权下放至业务部门,此举最终将提升公司的灵活性。”本肯多夫认为,即便美国医疗系统会受到蓝营(民主党)入主白宫的影响,“然而从各方面看,医疗公司在奥巴马执政时期过得并不算糟糕。”

美国之外

有鉴于大选逆风席卷全美,一些资产组合管理公司正在寻找美国之外的潜力增长股,尤其是东亚地区。尽管如此,资产组合管理公司认为,不管谁上台,美国与中国之间的贸易紧张局势不会消失。然而,这一点并不能够阻止他们投资那些足够强大的公司,来抵御Vontobel的本肯多夫所谓的“正当”但“激昂的政治辞令”。

中国的阿里巴巴集团(股票代码:BABA,股价301美元)便是一家几乎无人能出其右的公司。这家巨型零售商在中国消费者心目中的地位已经根深蒂固,这一点类似于亚马逊,但其远期市盈率约为29倍,而亚马逊则达到了89倍。Nuveen的马利克认为阿里巴巴有着“颇具吸引力的估值,以及强劲的电商广告增长势头”,然而该公司“对经济的推动作用不如”其他零售商。她还十分欣赏阿里巴巴进军地方商超行业的举措。

与此同时,本肯多夫非常看好蚂蚁金服即将举行的首次公开募股,阿里巴巴在该公司的持股比例约为33%。他说,该IPO“应该会激发阿里巴巴股价的额外价值。”本肯多夫还指出,美国与中国之间的较劲对阿里巴巴的威胁可能要低于其他公司,因为阿里巴巴是一家“非常专注于本国市场的企业,而且中国有着庞大的本土市场。”

在亚洲其他地方,总部位于日本的Ibiden是一个不显山露水但有着同样吸引力的企业。该公司生产印制电路板和集成电路封装板。马利克指出:“在新一代CPU的市场中,英特尔和AMD有着很大的需求。”她认为Ibiden是封装领域的“领头羊”,而且这一行业的准入门槛很高。她认为,“随着Ibiden通过扩张产能来满足大量的需求,公司将迎来持续多年的增长”,继而带来更高的利润率。

马利克还推荐台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,股票代码:TSM,股价88美元)这家全球最大的代工芯片制造商。她对台积电青睐有加的原因在于公司受益于全球5G技术的推广。马利克指出,智能手机占据了该芯片制造商约半数的业务,而且“随着苹果提升iPhone 12的产能,该公司亦会从中受益”。台积电生产的产品非常复杂、先进,对于竞争对手来说是难以逾越的准入门槛。马利克预测,公司的增长将受益于“高性能计算能力数据中心”,也就是亚马逊、微软和谷歌所修建的这类中心(她指出,针对此类云计算的芯片占到了公司营收的约30%至35%)。台积电在英特尔这位新客户那里也有着很大的业务潜力,后者已经释放出信号,它可能会把自家更多的芯片业务外包给台积电。马利克估计,该业务在未来五年可能会为公司带来20%的营收增幅。公司的股价依然有上升空间,当前的远期市盈率为25倍,低于半导体行业当前29倍的平均水平。(财富中文网)

所有股价均为截至2020年10月8日的价格。

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

2020年,投资者们可谓是应接不暇。

首先是新冠肺炎疫情,让众多投资者感到措手不及。然后我们又迎来了压力满满的夏季,期间,全球经济一路跛行,从迅速复苏发展成为缓慢反弹。如今,距离这个分化严重的美国总统大选投票还有不到一个月的时间,一些人对其结果充满担忧,他们不知道拜登的胜出或特朗普的继任会对其手中持有的股票带来什么样的影响。

这种焦虑部分说明,人们对于扑朔迷离的大选结果可能对市场带来的影响感到异常担心。这类不确定性很有可能意味着股市在短期内会动荡不堪。确实,一些投资者已经在购买期货、期权和其他衍生工具,如果股市在大选日之后立即出现大幅震荡,投资者便可以从这些工具中受益。其他人则像往常一样出现了些许无助感,他们不知道这两位候选者在医疗、高科技公司法规、税收以及贸易方面的立场是否会在未来影响其资产组合。

然而,像资产管理公司Vontobel Quality Growth的首席投资官马特•本肯多夫这样的老手则从现实分析着手,给了这些焦虑人士一颗定心丸。本肯多夫向《财富》杂志透露:“我认为选举影响通常都被过于夸大了。实际上,如果我们回顾历史,大选本身并不像人们所想的那样,会对市场带来如此大的影响。最终影响股价的依然是经济的基本健康度和增速以及企业的利润增长状况。”

当然,当前的经济远谈不上健康,而且经济需要多长才能够恢复到疫情前水平亦充满了诸多不确定性。资金管理公司通常都已经敲定了少数几个应该避而远之的重点领域(例如,在《财富》杂志采访的一些人士中,大多数都会规避金融和能源行业)。很多人建议将目光瞄向那些自带防御能力的股票:不妨想想那些呈稳定增长态势、可以提供可靠股息收益的公司的股票。

当然,从资产组合优化角度来讲,这也并非在说这场白宫角逐大戏毫无影响。拜登的当选可能意味着公司税收负担的增加,但政府开支也有可能增加,而特朗普的连任可能会导致贸易摩擦的加剧,但税收负担可能会减少。在短期内,Nuveen的全球股票负责人塞拉•马利克认为最大的风险来自于这场大选竞赛所带来的市场波动。但马利克认为,市场从长远来看将回归温和增长,也就是达到类似于疫情前的水平。

考虑到这一点,正如马利克提到的,问题如今变成了,“如果你不想押注其中的任何一个阵营,人们在短线和长线操作时应该购买什么股票?”为了帮助投资者回答这个问题,《财富》杂志询问了四位顶级资产组合经理,让他们推荐有助于尽可能地抵御选举影响、有望在未来四年或更长时间内有着不俗表现的股票组合。

专注于消费者

在经济中,有没有某个板块不会受到2020年选举的影响?那就是消费开支。尽管就业和收入遭到了疫情的冲击,而且像旅游这类可选活动的开支出现了暴跌,但消费开支依然占到了经济的约70%。

因此,资产组合经理正在搜寻消费经济中稳步增长、有望在各种环境中表现良好而且能够承载新消费趋势的公司。在这些公司中,大多数都属于日常消费品类目。马利克解释说:“这类公司有这个抵御能力,它们会因为其生产的产品获得良好的业绩,而且这些产品在任何情况下都是必须品。人们可以在这些领域获得一些收益。”(收益是投资者尤为渴望追逐的事物:由于不管谁入主白宫,利率至少在2023年之前都会停留在零点水平,而且标普500公司平均股息收益业已下滑至1.7%,因此高额股息支付公司显然要更具吸引力。)

在这类股票中,马利克推荐家居改善零售商家得宝的主要竞争对手劳氏(Lowe’s,股票代码:LOW,股价171美元)。她十分欣赏该股票1.4%的收益率,而且事实上该公司已经为服务这个再次振兴的房屋市场做好了准备。由于更多的人都因为其住所可能会成为其工作场所而投资家居环境,马利克认为劳氏将迎来“一系列有利的因素”。尤为值得一提的是,她相信该公司会受益于自身公司网站升级带来的电商业务崛起、供应链改善带来的成本控制,及其专业受众的回归(因为更多的客户再次选择使用承包商)。(马利克更喜欢劳氏而不是家得宝的原因在于前者的市盈率要低得多。)

Jensen Investment Management董事总经理兼资产组合经理埃瑞克•斯科恩斯腾则推荐百事公司(PepsiCo,股票代码:PEP,股价138美元),因为其派息收益达到了3%。但他认为,股票并非只是“因为收益率而获得收益”。他说:“这些公司实现了真正的增长、营收、盈利和现金流。”尽管百事所称的“家庭之外”的销售额(斯科恩斯腾称占其总销售额约35%到40%)在今年因为棒球体育馆和餐馆等场所的关闭而受到了冲击,但斯科恩斯腾认为,其便利店和居家产品(包括居家零食产品,例如Quaker Oats和Cheetos)在一定程度上帮助减少了损失。未来,他预计百事将实现中值到高值个位数的营收增速。

基建潮

DWS Group的美国业务首席投资官大卫•比扬卡认为:“不管谁入主白宫,很多人认为基础设施将成为大选后的热点行业。”两党都赞成应该加大对基础设施的投资,而且比扬卡“并不怀疑美国国会可能会因此而出台某种形式的投资方案。”然而比扬卡认为,这并非是祖父时代的那种“基础设施”。它不仅仅是道路和桥梁,同时还包括“新经济结构,在我看来就是智能电网、5G通讯。”

比扬卡认为,即便存在政治不确定性,有一个领域具有“唾手可得的不俗回报”,那就是公用设施。他表示,公用设施是“非常成熟、可靠的创收业务”,同时他认为在未来,电子公司在5G技术的推出方面会发挥尤为重要的作用:“电线杆由公用设施公司所有,而且它们将在安装5G蜂窝系统方面发挥重要的作用,而且随着时间的推移还将获得一些场地租赁收益。”

这类趋势有可能会提振电网和可再生能源领域的大拿NextEra Energy(股票代码:NEE,股价301美元)。该公司股票远期市盈率约为30倍,派息收益率为1.8%。NextEra是公用设施公司Florida Power & Light与Gulf Power的母公司,而且重点专注于清洁能源。即便没有通常伴随民主党总统而来的清洁能源支持,公司在共和党政府的领导下也一直处于增长当中。NextEra的首席执行官詹姆斯•罗博在最近的电话会议上宣布:“我们一直在对我们的业务进行定位,以获得成功,并摆脱大选结果的影响。”

Nuveen的马利克还说,她预计大选之后会出现基建潮。这对于Terex(股票代码:TEX,股价25美元)来说应该是一个好消息,该公司致力于生产建造行业空中作业平台和设备。公司受到了新冠疫情和经济衰退的严重冲击,其营收在过去12个月中的跌幅超过了25%。然而公司的股价依然居高不下,其持续运营静态平均市盈率约为35倍(该行业当前的平均水平为21倍)。马利克认为,Terex是“一名幸存者”,而且相信公司的空中作业平台部门(占到其销售额的60%至65%)将出现预期的反弹,继而成为Terex营收恢复的“首要引擎”。她重点提到了Terex强劲的资产负债情况,并指出“公司在2024年之前没有到期债务,同时还拥有正现金流。”她还称赞了首席执行官约翰•加里森通过在2019年出售吊车等部门来精简公司的举措。她说:“这家公司将在一段时间内回归正常营收,并度过经济衰退。”

可以肯定的是,提升基建投资和财政支出并非既成事实,而且很多投资者希望能够确认其股票不会受累于政府增加开支的举措。这也是为什么Jensen的斯科恩斯腾对3M(股票代码:MMM,股价168美元)青睐有加的原因。这家业务多元化的行业巨头生产的产品包括飞机、运输、铁路和商用车组件(当然还有个人防护设备)。斯科恩斯腾表示:“该公司不同的部门可以携手并进,在逆境中相互扶持,在顺境中共同成长。”他认为3M的业务模式“略显得更有韧性”的原因在于,它并非“完全依靠大量的刺激性支出”,但也能够从中受益。此外,公司的股价相对便宜,其远期市盈率为19倍,其股息收益为3.5%。

令人惊讶的领域:科技与医疗

在众多受大选影响最严重的领域中,被种种新闻和政治辞令弄的头昏脑胀的投资者可能会想到这两个领域。医疗可能会出现一些大的变化,例如,从保险“公众选择”的增加到白宫降低药价的举措。与此同时,科技公司因为其规模和市场影响力而受到了决策者们的批评,而且一些投资者越来越意识到,这些公司的股价已经过高。然而,资产组合经理依然看到了不少机会,这些机会应该有助于其规避任何重大不利因素,且无需考虑阵营的问题。

例如,DWS的比扬卡并不认为哪一个政党(西部科技公司与东部科技公司之间存在竞争,我并不认为美国政客会采取举措来削弱西部科技公司的竞争能力)会“出台任何刁难科技公司的立法”。

然而,一些大型科技公司比其他公司更加脆弱。这也是为什么本肯多夫选择微软(Microsoft,股票代码:MSFT,股价211美元)的原因,因为该公司“当前都不在两党炮火的射程范围之内”,然而像亚马逊这类同行则有着不同的待遇。本肯多夫认为,考虑到微软拥有稳步增长的软件购买业务,欣欣向荣的云平台Azure,以及最近的各种收购,“虽然微软的股票表现还不错,但该公司将继续被人们低估,也得不到应有的赏识。”微软远期市盈率为32倍,其估值与众多高高在上的同行相距甚远。

Jensen的斯科恩斯腾同样认为,微软“能够免受一些监管问题的困扰”。他指出,科技巨头在20年前便面临着这些困难,但依然活了下来。他认为微软的工具和产品(包括其商业交流平台Teams)正在帮助人们“适应居家工作环境”。斯科恩斯腾估计,这一境况在未来几年中可能会持续,受此影响,公司可能会迎来低值双位数的营收增长。

本肯多夫认为,医疗保健是另一个投资者可能过于关注“新闻标题恐惧”的领域。他说:“人们可能会想:‘哦,我的天哪,如果民主党当选,什么什么事情就会发生。’”但“说到能够为客户带来巨大价值的绝佳业务,我认为医疗设备依然是一个相对安全的行业。”

符合本肯多夫条件的其中一家公司是美敦力(Medtronic,股票代码:MDT,股价108美元),他认为这家医疗设备制造商属于“安全、经营良好、稳健、可预测的成长型企业”。公司生产的设备包括起搏器和胰岛素泵,其远期市盈率约为22倍,低于行业平均水平。本肯多夫称,美敦力的Micra AV设备(一款无线微型起搏器)呈现出了强劲的增长势头。他还认为公司的新首席执行官杰奥夫•玛莎正“寻求将更多的自主权下放至业务部门,此举最终将提升公司的灵活性。”本肯多夫认为,即便美国医疗系统会受到蓝营(民主党)入主白宫的影响,“然而从各方面看,医疗公司在奥巴马执政时期过得并不算糟糕。”

美国之外

有鉴于大选逆风席卷全美,一些资产组合管理公司正在寻找美国之外的潜力增长股,尤其是东亚地区。尽管如此,资产组合管理公司认为,不管谁上台,美国与中国之间的贸易紧张局势不会消失。然而,这一点并不能够阻止他们投资那些足够强大的公司,来抵御Vontobel的本肯多夫所谓的“正当”但“激昂的政治辞令”。

中国的阿里巴巴集团(股票代码:BABA,股价301美元)便是一家几乎无人能出其右的公司。这家巨型零售商在中国消费者心目中的地位已经根深蒂固,这一点类似于亚马逊,但其远期市盈率约为29倍,而亚马逊则达到了89倍。Nuveen的马利克认为阿里巴巴有着“颇具吸引力的估值,以及强劲的电商广告增长势头”,然而该公司“对经济的推动作用不如”其他零售商。她还十分欣赏阿里巴巴进军地方商超行业的举措。

与此同时,本肯多夫非常看好蚂蚁金服即将举行的首次公开募股,阿里巴巴在该公司的持股比例约为33%。他说,该IPO“应该会激发阿里巴巴股价的额外价值。”本肯多夫还指出,美国与中国之间的较劲对阿里巴巴的威胁可能要低于其他公司,因为阿里巴巴是一家“非常专注于本国市场的企业,而且中国有着庞大的本土市场。”

在亚洲其他地方,总部位于日本的Ibiden是一个不显山露水但有着同样吸引力的企业。该公司生产印制电路板和集成电路封装板。马利克指出:“在新一代CPU的市场中,英特尔和AMD有着很大的需求。”她认为Ibiden是封装领域的“领头羊”,而且这一行业的准入门槛很高。她认为,“随着Ibiden通过扩张产能来满足大量的需求,公司将迎来持续多年的增长”,继而带来更高的利润率。

马利克还推荐台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,股票代码:TSM,股价88美元)这家全球最大的代工芯片制造商。她对台积电青睐有加的原因在于公司受益于全球5G技术的推广。马利克指出,智能手机占据了该芯片制造商约半数的业务,而且“随着苹果提升iPhone 12的产能,该公司亦会从中受益”。台积电生产的产品非常复杂、先进,对于竞争对手来说是难以逾越的准入门槛。马利克预测,公司的增长将受益于“高性能计算能力数据中心”,也就是亚马逊、微软和谷歌所修建的这类中心(她指出,针对此类云计算的芯片占到了公司营收的约30%至35%)。台积电在英特尔这位新客户那里也有着很大的业务潜力,后者已经释放出信号,它可能会把自家更多的芯片业务外包给台积电。马利克估计,该业务在未来五年可能会为公司带来20%的营收增幅。公司的股价依然有上升空间,当前的远期市盈率为25倍,低于半导体行业当前29倍的平均水平。(财富中文网)

所有股价均为截至2020年10月8日的价格。

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

It’s been one thing after another for investors in 2020.

First came the novel coronavirus that threw many a shareholder for a loop. Then came a stressful summer in which the global economy moved in fits and starts, petering out from a quick recovery to a slower rebound. Now, with less than a month until the ballots will be counted in a polarizing U.S. election, some are anxious about the outcome, wondering what a Biden presidency or a second Trump term would mean for their stock market holdings.

That anxiety partly reflects the fear of what a disputed election result could do to markets. Such uncertainty would likely mean volatile markets in the short term; indeed, some investors are already buying futures, options, and other derivatives that could pay off if markets swing wildly immediately following Election Day. And others are doing a bit of old-fashioned hand-wringing over whether the candidates’ stances on health care, Big Tech regulation, taxes, and trade could hurt their portfolios down the road.

But for such fretful types, market pros like Matt Benkendorf, chief investment officer of asset manager Vontobel Quality Growth, offer a reassuring reality check. “I think the election impact is generally overexaggerated,” Benkendorf tells Fortune. “Quite frankly, if we go and look back historically, the elections themselves don’t have as tremendous outcomes [on the market] as people believe. It’s the underlying health of the economy and growth there and corporate profit growth, ultimately, that are going to impact stock prices.”

The economy isn’t nearly as healthy as it could be, of course, and there remains plenty of uncertainty about how long it will take for it to recover from the pandemic. Money managers in general have earmarked a few key sectors to steer clear of (among those who spoke with Fortune, for example, most are avoiding financials and energy). And many recommend looking to stocks that have defensive elements to them: Think shares in steadily growing companies that are able to deliver reliable dividend yields.

That’s certainly not to say that the race for the White House means nothing, portfolio-wise. A Biden presidency may mean higher corporate taxes but perhaps increased government spending, while a status quo Republican administration could translate to rising trade tensions but more relaxed taxes—and either result could create winners and losers. In the near term, Saira Malik, head of global equities at Nuveen, believes the biggest risk is volatility from a contested election. But longer term, Malik believes we’ll return to a moderate growth environment akin to the days BC (before coronavirus).

With that in mind, as Malik notes, the question now is “What can you own in either scenario, if you don’t want to place your stake in either camp?” To help investors answer that question, Fortune asked four top portfolio managers to nominate their stocks for a portfolio that’s as election-proof as possible, the kind that might hold up nicely for the next four years or more.

Concentrate on the consumer

One element of the economy that isn’t in the crosshairs for the 2020 election? Consumer spending. Though the pandemic delivered a hit to employment and incomes, and spending on optional activities like travel has plummeted, consumer spending still makes up roughly 70% of the economy.

So portfolio managers are scanning the consumer economy for steadily growing companies that tend to perform well in all environments and can piggyback on new trends in the way we’re spending. Most of these companies fall in the category of consumer staples, Malik explains: “They’re defensive; they’re going to perform well because of the types of goods they produce that are needed in any kind of environment; and you can find some yield there.” (Yield is something investors are particularly eager to capture: With interest rates likely to stick at near zero through at least 2023 regardless of who is in the White House, and the average S&P 500 dividend yield having slipped to 1.7%, significant dividend-payers look even more attractive.)

One such stock Malik favors is Lowe’s (LOW, $171), chief rival of home improvement retailer Home Depot. She likes the stock’s 1.4% yield and the fact that the company is poised to serve a housing market that’s booming once more. With more people investing in their homes “because their workspace can now be their house,” Malik sees Lowe’s as having a “whole host of factors that work in their favor.” In particular, she believes Lowe’s will benefit from a boost in e-commerce as the company upgrades its website; from cost controls as it improves its supply chain; and from the return of its professional crowd as more customers feel comfortable using contractors again. (Malik prefers Lowe’s over Home Depot for its significantly lower P/E.)

Eric Schoenstein, a managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, likes PepsiCo (PEP, $138) for its 3% dividend. But he argues the stock isn’t “just yield for yield’s sake.” “They’re producing real growth and revenues and earnings and free cash flow,” he says. Although what PepsiCo calls its “away from home” sales (which make up roughly 35% to 40% of total sales, Schoenstein says) have taken a hit this year owing to closures of venues like baseball stadiums and restaurants, Schoenstein argues that its convenience store and at-home products (including snack-at-home staples like Quaker Oats and Cheetos) have helped to somewhat stem the losses. Moving forward, he anticipates earnings growth in the mid-to-high single digits.

The infrastructure play

David Bianco, the chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS Group, is making the call: “A lot of people think that infrastructure is going to be the play postelection” no matter who wins. There’s bipartisan support for increased investment in infrastructure, and Bianco “wouldn’t doubt there’s some kind of investment package” likely to emerge from Congress. But from Bianco’s perspective, this isn’t your grandpa’s “infrastructure.” The term doesn’t only mean roads and bridges, but also includes the “new economy structure, which to me is an intelligent power grid, 5G communications.”

One sector that Bianco argues is “low-hanging fruit for good return,” even amid political uncertainty: utilities. Not only are utilities “very mature, very reliable income-producing businesses,” he notes, but moving forward he thinks electric companies in particular will play an important role in the rollout of 5G technology: “The electric poles are owned by the utility companies, and they will play a big part in installing 5G cells and will receive some rental income for the space” over time.

Such trends are likely to boost NextEra Energy (NEE, $301), a big player in the power grid and in renewable energy. The stock currently trades at around 30 times forward earnings with a 1.8% dividend yield. NextEra is the parent of utilities Florida Power & Light and Gulf Power, and it has a heavy focus on investing in clean energy. The company has been able to grow under a Republican administration, even without the full-on clean-energy support likely to come with a Democratic President. As NextEra’s CEO James Robo declared on a recent earnings call: “We always position our business to try to win, regardless of the outcome of elections.”

Nuveen’s Malik also says she expects a postelection infrastructure boost. That’s likely good news for Terex (TEX, $25), a producer of aerial work platforms and equipment used for construction. The company has taken a big hit owing to the coronavirus and recession, with revenues falling more than 25% in the past 12 months. It’s also a bit on the expensive side, trading at roughly 35 times trailing earnings from continued operations (the industrial sector average is currently 21). But Malik believes Terex is “a survivor,” and argues an expected rebound in the company’s aerial work platforms division (roughly 60% to 65% of its sales) will be the “main driver” in Terex’s earnings recovery. She highlights Terex’s solid balance sheet, noting that “they have no debt due until 2024 [and] positive free cash flow.” She also commends CEO John Garrison for streamlining the company through the sale of segments like cranes in 2019. “This will be a company that returns to normalized earnings over time and survives the recession,” she argues.

To be sure, more infrastructure and fiscal spending is not a done deal, and many investors are eager to make sure their stocks aren’t fully tethered to more government cash. That’s why Jensen’s Schoenstein likes 3M (MMM, $168), the multifaceted industrial behemoth whose products include components for aircraft, transportation, rails, and commercial vehicles (and, of course, personal protective equipment). “Its individual industries can work hand in hand to help offset each other in tough times but grow together in good times,” Schoenstein argues. He believes 3M’s business model is “a bit more resilient” in that it’s not “solely reliant upon huge stimulus spending” but can still be a beneficiary of those forces. Plus, the stock comes fairly cheap at 19 times forward earnings with a 3.5% dividend yield.

Surprise sectors: Tech and health care

Investors besieged by myriad headlines and political rhetoric may think of these two sectors as among those facing the biggest threats from the election. Health care could see some big changes, for example, from an expansion of a “public option” for insurance to White House efforts to lower drug prices. Tech, meanwhile, faces criticism from lawmakers over its size and market power, along with the growing conviction among some investors that their stock prices have just become too high. But portfolio managers still see plenty of opportunities that should skirt any major headwinds in either space.

DWS’s Bianco, for one, doesn’t “think you’re going to get any difficult legislation” around tech from either party (“There’s competition of Western tech versus Eastern tech, and I don’t think U.S. politicians are going to do things that hobble the ability of Western tech to compete,” he argues).

Still, some Big Tech companies will be more vulnerable than others. That’s why Benkendorf favors Microsoft (MSFT, $211), which is “not the focus of government ire right now on either side of the aisle” compared with peers like Amazon. With a growing and stable subscription software business, a booming cloud platform in Azure, and a recent M&A spree, Benkendorf thinks Microsoft “continues to be undervalued and underappreciated even despite the stock doing well.” At 32 times forward earnings, Microsoft’s valuation is dwarfed by many of its high-flying peers.

Jensen’s Schoenstein is equally convinced Microsoft has “insulation from some of the regulatory concerns,” pointing out the tech giant faced these troubles two decades earlier and lived to tell the tale. He notes Microsoft’s tools and products (including Teams, its business communication platform) are helping people “pivot into this work-from-home environment.” That’s likely to stick around in coming years, which could all translate to low-double-digit earnings growth, Schoenstein estimates.

Health care is another arena in which, as Benkendorf argues, investors may be too focused on the “headline fears”: “People sort of think, ‘Oh my goodness, if you get a Democratic supermajority [then] this and that happens,’” he says. But “if you have great businesses that add tremendous value for customers, I think medical devices is still a relatively safe space.”

One company that fits that bill for Benkendorf is Medtronic (MDT, $108), a medical-device manufacturer he deems a “safe, well-run, steady, predictable grower.” The company makes devices like pacemakers and insulin pumps, and trades at roughly 22 times forward earnings—a discount to the sector at large. Benkendorf says Medtronic is seeing strong growth in its Micra AV device, a miniaturized pacemaker that doesn’t require wires. He also believes the company’s new CEO, Geoff Martha, is “looking to push more autonomy down to the business units, which should ultimately lead to a more nimble organization.” Even if a blue wave washes over the U.S. health care system, Benkendorf argues, “what we had under Obama was not a bad situation for those companies by any means.”

Beyond the U.S.

With election headwinds stateside, some portfolio managers are looking for promising growth outside the U.S. altogether—with an eye to East Asia in particular. To be sure, portfolio managers agree tensions between the U.S. and China won’t disappear, no matter who is in the White House in January. But that’s not stopping them from investing in companies that are strong enough to defend against what Vontobel’s Benkendorf calls “legitimate” yet “heated political rhetoric.”

None is quite as formidable as China’s Alibaba Group (BABA, $301). The massive retailer has an Amazon-like ingrained foothold among China’s consumers, but it trades at roughly 29 times forward earnings, compared with nearly 89 for Amazon. Nuveen’s Malik believes Alibaba has “an attractive valuation, strong ad growth in e-commerce,” yet is “less levered to the economy” than other retailers; she also likes that it’s moving into local supermarket services.

Benkendorf, meanwhile, is bullish about the upcoming IPO of fintech Ant Group, of which Alibaba owns roughly 33%, which he says, “should crystallize an additional piece of value within [Alibaba’s] share price.” And rivalry between the U.S. and China may pose less of a threat to Alibaba than to other companies, because Alibaba is a “very domestically focused business, and China has a very deep domestic market,” Benkendorf notes.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan-based Ibiden, which makes printed circuit boards and integrated circuit packaging, is a lesser-known but equally appealing name. Malik notes the “next generation CPU market is in high demand from Intel and AMD,” and argues Ibiden is “the leader” in packaging—a space with high barriers to entry. She expects a “multiyear period of growth as Ibiden expands capacity to meet volume demands,” which should translate into higher profit margins.

Malik also favors Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) (ADR: TSM, $88), the world’s largest contract chipmaker. She likes TSMC in particular because it’s benefiting from the global buildout in 5G. Smartphones make up roughly half the chipmaker’s business, Malik notes, and “as Apple ramps up for the iPhone 12, they benefit.” TSMC makes complicated, advanced products that pose huge barriers to entry for competitors. And Malik predicts its growth will be driven by “high-performance computing for data centers” of the kind being built by Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (chips for such cloud computing account for roughly 30% to 35% of revenues, she notes). TSMC also has a major potential new customer in Intel, which has signaled that it might subcontract more of its own chips to TSMC. Malik estimates that business could add 20% in incremental revenue to the company over the next five years. The stock has room to run, trading at 25 times forward earnings—below the current semiconductor industry average at 29.

All stock prices calculated as of Oct. 8, 2020.

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App