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股票再好,也有崩盘的时候

股票再好,也有崩盘的时候

Ben Carlson 2020年09月15日
即使最好的股票也要经历这个过程。

有时候,股市或者某一只股票暴跌的最大原因是它们之前先经历了暴涨。

所谓“树高不过天”。任何股票都不可能永远上涨。

新冠肺炎疫情改变了我们以前所坚持的做事情的方式,某些能够利用这种变化趋势的股票趁势疯涨。

但在疫情当中上涨的许多股票,最近几周都露出了疲态。Overstock的股价一度从3月的最低点暴涨超过2,000%,但如今已经下跌超过44%。Wayfair的股价从3月23日开始上涨了1,000%,现在已经下跌超过25%。Zoom的股价跌幅超过23%。DocuSign的股价较其近期的最高点下跌了超过26%。

或许是这些股票的行情有些超前。也可能是人们对于后疫情时代有些反应过度。但我们假设这些公司是在正确的时间出现在了正确的位置,并且从现在开始最终成为最成功的股票。

即使这些公司不负众望实现了当前定下的远大目标,它们的股票最终带来巨额投资回报,这个过程也不可能是直线上升。未来几十年,这些公司可能成为最成功的股票,但它们依旧可能在某个时间点暴跌。

这是即使最好的股票也要经历的过程,因为像Uber这样成功的公司,预期很难与现实保持一致。

我们不妨回忆一下一些史上最成功的公司、品牌和股票,在上市之后的遭遇。

苹果(Apple)自上世纪80年代初以来的涨幅高达约120,000%(年度涨幅19.5%)。但苹果股票曾经有三次跌幅超过75%,股价腰斩的情况超过五次。

Facebook自2012年上市以来,股价上涨超过600%(年度涨幅27%)。但其股票曾经三次下跌30%以上,包括在上市后不久暴跌53%。

自2002年以来,奈飞(Netflix)股价上涨超过43,000%(年度涨幅39%)。但该流媒体业巨头的股价曾经四次下跌50%以上,包括两次下跌75%以上。

微软公司(Microsoft)的股票自上世纪80年代中期以来上涨近350,000%(年度涨幅27%)。然而,在互联网泡沫破灭之后,微软股票曾经在近15年时间里持续下跌,其股价从最高点至最低点的跌幅高达75%。

亚马逊(Amazon)是一只备受喜爱的股票,所有人都希望“在它IPO的时候能买1万美元的股票。”其股价从1997年至今的涨幅约为170,000%(年度涨幅38%)。但亚马逊股价的最大跌幅接近95%。亚马逊自上市以来经历过多次股价下跌30%的情况。

沃尔玛(Walmart)在上世纪70年代初期上市。其股价在接近五十年的时间里上涨超过321,000%(年度涨幅19%)。但沃尔玛股价曾经有八次下跌30%以上,在2000年至2012年期间,其股票的表现始终低迷不振。

麦当劳(McDonald’s)的股价自上世纪70年代初以来上涨了31,000%(年度涨幅13%)。但“金拱门”曾经两次股价暴跌超过65%。

耐克(Nike)股价自上世纪80年代以来上涨了近100,000%(年度涨幅19%)。但菲尔•奈特一手创立的这个品牌的股价曾经下跌75%、62%和48%。

明白了吗?

我不知道这些居家办公或居家健身的公司的股票,是否也会像上面那些公司一样大获成功。可能不会,但我认为一切皆有可能。

即使这些新兴的公司从现在开始,最终变成全世界最成功的股票,它们在这个过程中肯定会经历一次或者更多次暴跌。

那些成功的公司和股票都会有这样的经历。

股价暴跌的原因可能是无法实现预期、公司领导层失误或者发生不可预测的事件严重影响了公司的业务。

要想在股市赚大钱,就要做好在这个过程中承受巨大损失的准备。(财富中文网)

本文作者是本•卡尔森(Ben Carlson),他是里萨兹财富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)机构资产管理部门的主任。作者可能持有文中提及的证券或资产。

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

有时候,股市或者某一只股票暴跌的最大原因是它们之前先经历了暴涨。

所谓“树高不过天”。任何股票都不可能永远上涨。

新冠肺炎疫情改变了我们以前所坚持的做事情的方式,某些能够利用这种变化趋势的股票趁势疯涨。

但在疫情当中上涨的许多股票,最近几周都露出了疲态。Overstock的股价一度从3月的最低点暴涨超过2,000%,但如今已经下跌超过44%。Wayfair的股价从3月23日开始上涨了1,000%,现在已经下跌超过25%。Zoom的股价跌幅超过23%。DocuSign的股价较其近期的最高点下跌了超过26%。

或许是这些股票的行情有些超前。也可能是人们对于后疫情时代有些反应过度。但我们假设这些公司是在正确的时间出现在了正确的位置,并且从现在开始最终成为最成功的股票。

即使这些公司不负众望实现了当前定下的远大目标,它们的股票最终带来巨额投资回报,这个过程也不可能是直线上升。未来几十年,这些公司可能成为最成功的股票,但它们依旧可能在某个时间点暴跌。

这是即使最好的股票也要经历的过程,因为像Uber这样成功的公司,预期很难与现实保持一致。

我们不妨回忆一下一些史上最成功的公司、品牌和股票,在上市之后的遭遇。

苹果(Apple)自上世纪80年代初以来的涨幅高达约120,000%(年度涨幅19.5%)。但苹果股票曾经有三次跌幅超过75%,股价腰斩的情况超过五次。

Facebook自2012年上市以来,股价上涨超过600%(年度涨幅27%)。但其股票曾经三次下跌30%以上,包括在上市后不久暴跌53%。

自2002年以来,奈飞(Netflix)股价上涨超过43,000%(年度涨幅39%)。但该流媒体业巨头的股价曾经四次下跌50%以上,包括两次下跌75%以上。

微软公司(Microsoft)的股票自上世纪80年代中期以来上涨近350,000%(年度涨幅27%)。然而,在互联网泡沫破灭之后,微软股票曾经在近15年时间里持续下跌,其股价从最高点至最低点的跌幅高达75%。

亚马逊(Amazon)是一只备受喜爱的股票,所有人都希望“在它IPO的时候能买1万美元的股票。”其股价从1997年至今的涨幅约为170,000%(年度涨幅38%)。但亚马逊股价的最大跌幅接近95%。亚马逊自上市以来经历过多次股价下跌30%的情况。

沃尔玛(Walmart)在上世纪70年代初期上市。其股价在接近五十年的时间里上涨超过321,000%(年度涨幅19%)。但沃尔玛股价曾经有八次下跌30%以上,在2000年至2012年期间,其股票的表现始终低迷不振。

麦当劳(McDonald’s)的股价自上世纪70年代初以来上涨了31,000%(年度涨幅13%)。但“金拱门”曾经两次股价暴跌超过65%。

耐克(Nike)股价自上世纪80年代以来上涨了近100,000%(年度涨幅19%)。但菲尔•奈特一手创立的这个品牌的股价曾经下跌75%、62%和48%。

明白了吗?

我不知道这些居家办公或居家健身的公司的股票,是否也会像上面那些公司一样大获成功。可能不会,但我认为一切皆有可能。

即使这些新兴的公司从现在开始,最终变成全世界最成功的股票,它们在这个过程中肯定会经历一次或者更多次暴跌。

那些成功的公司和股票都会有这样的经历。

股价暴跌的原因可能是无法实现预期、公司领导层失误或者发生不可预测的事件严重影响了公司的业务。

要想在股市赚大钱,就要做好在这个过程中承受巨大损失的准备。(财富中文网)

本文作者是本•卡尔森(Ben Carlson),他是里萨兹财富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)机构资产管理部门的主任。作者可能持有文中提及的证券或资产。

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Sometimes the biggest reason the stock market or certain stocks experience a severe decline in price is because they first experienced a massive rise in price.

Trees don’t grow to the sky.

The pandemic has changed the way we view the many previously held ways of doing things, which has led to some insane gains in certain stocks that have been able to capitalize.

Many of those pandemic winners finally took a breather in recent weeks. Overstock has crashed more than 44% after rising more than 2,000% since the bottom in March. Wayfair is down more than 25% after rising 1,000% since March 23rd. Zoom fell more than 23%. DocuSign is off more 26% from its recent highs.

It’s possible these stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. Maybe people have overreacted about how things will look in a post-pandemic world. But let’s assume these companies were not only in the right place at the right time, but end up becoming some of the biggest stocks from here on out.

Even if these companies live up to their now lofty expectations and their stocks end up being grand slam investments, it’s not going to be a straight line up and to the right. These companies could become some of the most successful stocks of the next few decades and they will still crash spectacularly at some point.

This is the way it has to be for even the best of stocks because it’s impossible for expectations to stay in line with reality when you have uber-successful companies.

Let’s take a little stroll down drawdown memory lane to see how some of the most successful companies, brands and stocks in history have done over their life as a public company.

Apple is up almost 120,000% (19.5% annualized) since the early 1980s. Yet the stock has fallen more than 75% on three different occasions and has been cut in half more times than you could count on one hand.

Facebook is up more than 600% (27% annualized) since its IPO in 2012. The stock has endured three separate declines of 30% or more since then including a 53% crash immediately after going public.

Netflix is up more than 43,000% (39% annualized) since 2002. The stock of the streaming giant has fallen 50% or worse four times including two 75% or worse crashes.

Microsoft is up nearly 350,000% (27% annualized) since the mid-1980s. It was, however, in a drawdown for nearly 15 years following the bursting of the dot-com bubble, which saw a price decline of 75% from peak-to-trough.

Amazon is everyone’s favorite “If you would have put $10k in at the IPO…” stock for good reason. It’s up almost 170,000% (38% annualized) since 1997. The worst crash in the company’s stock was a plunge of almost 95%. There have been multiple 30% slides since then.

Walmart went public in the early-1970s. In close to five decades its stock is up more than 321,000% (19% annualized). It has eight corrections of 30% or worse in that time along with an underwater run in price from 2000 to 2012.

McDonald’s is up 31,000% (13% annualized) since the early-1970s. There have been two crashes in excess of 65% for the golden arches in that time.

Nike is up almost 100,000% (19% annualized) since the early-1980s. Phil Knight’s brainchild has seen drops of 75%, 62% and 48%.

You get the point.

I don’t know if these work from home or workout from home stocks will end up being as successful as these companies. Probably not, but I suppose anything is possible.

Yet even if these up and coming corporations do become some of the more successful stocks in the world from here on out, they will almost certainly experience one or more enormous crashes to get there.

This is what happens to successful companies and successful stocks.

They have to crash because expectations get out of whack, company leadership has a misstep or an unforeseen event causes a severe disruption to the business.

If you want to earn big returns in the stock market, expect to live with big losses to get there.

Ben Carlson is the director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He may own securities or assets discussed in this piece.

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