科技股将持续领涨美国股市
随着标普500指数再次接近史上最高点，在市场表现方面一直由大盘科技股领涨已经不是什么秘密。有分析师认为，科技股最近的上涨越来越有可能成为市场长期趋势。
作为标普500指数中规模最大的行业，信息技术股的总市值达到7.66万亿美元，在该基准指数中的占比超过27%。相比之下，该指数中的第二大行业医疗股的市值只有不到4万亿美元，占比只有14%。
标普500指数从3月新冠疫情导致的历史性回调期间的最低点反弹了超过50%，科技股的庞大体量既是这种反弹的结果，也解释了反弹的原因。让人难过的是，美国股市有时候让人感觉与整体经济的困境脱节。其中，蓝筹科技股的表现始终最好；标普指数中的信息技术行业从年初至今上涨了超过25%（标普500指数整体涨幅只有5%），过去12个月上涨了45%（标普500指数整体涨幅为16%）。
分析师认为，未来科技股的这种趋势不会有变化。大型科技公司会继续凭借出色的业绩赚得盆满钵满，而且新冠疫情让他们的服务对整体经济的重要性日益提高。
量化投资研究公司Chaikin Analytics的创始人马克•查金表示：“我认为，[大盘科技股]会继续领涨，因为在当前居家办公和居家购物的经济形态下，现金流将流入这些科技公司。现在是线上与线下的竞争。”
未来，即使在后疫情时代，这种影响力也可能会与日俱增，因为快速向自动化和基于技术的服务转型，毫无疑问将彻底改变整个世界。反过来，科技行业投资者将从中受益。
查金补充说，虽然标普500指数达到3,386点的史上最高点后，会继续进入“阻力位”，但该指数最终将突破障碍。他说：“我们现在期待的目标点位是3,500点至3,600点。”
毕竟，标普500指数进入8月表现良好，到目前为止的11个交易日中有8个交易日上涨（8月17日收盘时小幅上涨，涨幅为0.3%）。
查金说：“历史上，这种月初的强势开局，到月末往往会进一步上扬。这符合我们的观点，即我们正在经历一场由美联储推动的股价逐步融涨的过程。”(财富中文网)
译者：Biz
随着标普500指数再次接近史上最高点，在市场表现方面一直由大盘科技股领涨已经不是什么秘密。有分析师认为，科技股最近的上涨越来越有可能成为市场长期趋势。
作为标普500指数中规模最大的行业，信息技术股的总市值达到7.66万亿美元，在该基准指数中的占比超过27%。相比之下，该指数中的第二大行业医疗股的市值只有不到4万亿美元，占比只有14%。
标普500指数从3月新冠疫情导致的历史性回调期间的最低点反弹了超过50%，科技股的庞大体量既是这种反弹的结果，也解释了反弹的原因。让人难过的是，美国股市有时候让人感觉与整体经济的困境脱节。其中，蓝筹科技股的表现始终最好；标普指数中的信息技术行业从年初至今上涨了超过25%（标普500指数整体涨幅只有5%），过去12个月上涨了45%（标普500指数整体涨幅为16%）。
分析师认为，未来科技股的这种趋势不会有变化。大型科技公司会继续凭借出色的业绩赚得盆满钵满，而且新冠疫情让他们的服务对整体经济的重要性日益提高。
量化投资研究公司Chaikin Analytics的创始人马克•查金表示：“我认为，[大盘科技股]会继续领涨，因为在当前居家办公和居家购物的经济形态下，现金流将流入这些科技公司。现在是线上与线下的竞争。”
未来，即使在后疫情时代，这种影响力也可能会与日俱增，因为快速向自动化和基于技术的服务转型，毫无疑问将彻底改变整个世界。反过来，科技行业投资者将从中受益。
查金补充说，虽然标普500指数达到3,386点的史上最高点后，会继续进入“阻力位”，但该指数最终将突破障碍。他说：“我们现在期待的目标点位是3,500点至3,600点。”
毕竟，标普500指数进入8月表现良好，到目前为止的11个交易日中有8个交易日上涨（8月17日收盘时小幅上涨，涨幅为0.3%）。
查金说：“历史上，这种月初的强势开局，到月末往往会进一步上扬。这符合我们的观点，即我们正在经历一场由美联储推动的股价逐步融涨的过程。”(财富中文网)
译者：Biz
As the S&P 500 once again threatens to break through its all-time high, it’s no secret that large-cap tech stocks have been leading the way as far as market performance is concerned. And to some analysts, it seems increasingly likely that tech's recent rally is just the latest chapter in a long-lasting trend in the markets.
By far the largest sector tracked by the S&P 500, with an aggregate market capitalization of $7.66 trillion，information technology stocks make up more than 27% of the benchmark index. By contrast, health care—the second-largest sector—carries a market cap of just under $4 trillion and represents only 14% of the index.
Tech stocks' huge share of the index is both a result of and an explanation for the S&P 500's rebound of more than 50% since its nadir during March’s historic, coronavirus-induced correction. In a market that has at times felt woefully disconnected from the struggles of the U.S. economy at large, blue-chip tech stocks have performed the best of all; the S&P’s information technology sector has climbed more than 25% year to date (compared to a 5% increase for the index at large), and 45% over the last 12 months (versus a 16% spike for the S&P 500).
Moving forward, it’s unlikely that dynamic will change much, according to analysts. Not only do big tech players continue to print money as far as their results are concerned, but the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated the importance of their services to the broader economy.
“I believe that [large-cap tech stocks] will continue to lead the market higher, because that’s where the cash flow is in this work-at-home and shop-at-home economy,” according to Marc Chaikin, founder of quantitative investment research firm Chaikin Analytics. “Right now, it’s clicks versus bricks.”
That influence will likely only grow in the coming years, even in a post-pandemic world, since that world will undoubtedly be altered by an acceleration toward automation and tech-enabled services. Tech investors, in turn, will be primed to benefit.
Chaikin adds that though the S&P 500 continues to run into “resistance” as it approaches its all-time peak of 3,386 points, the index should eventually surpass that barrier. “We are now looking for 3,500 to 3,600 [points] as a price target,” he notes.
After all, the S&P has started the month of August in fine form, having registered gains eight of 11 trading sessions thus far (it closed August 17’s session up marginally, gaining 0.3%).
“Historically, this early-month strength has been followed by further upsight through month-end,” according to Chaikin. “This is consistent with our view that we are experiencing a Fed-driven, gradual melt-up in stock prices.”
