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为什么说中国的数字货币属于“绝对刚需”

为什么说中国的数字货币属于“绝对刚需”

VETA CHAN 2020年08月05日
中国有680多个城市。但试点的只有4个,因此还有很长的路要走。

中国一直在推动数字人民币的发行计划,其目的是成为全球首个发行数字主权货币的国家。

自5月在中国深圳、苏州、成都和雄安这四个城市进行其中央银行数字货币(CBDC)试点之后,中国央行——中国人民银行如今正在与私营公司商谈扩大其测试范围。多家大型公司,例如中国最大的打车公司滴滴出行以及外卖巨头美团点评,都已被纳入候选名单,以通过其影响广泛的平台大规模推行数字货币。

普华永道香港高级经理兼香港金融科技协会区块链委员会联席主席露西•加扎马拉莉安说:“开展试行是十分必要的。”她说,重点是对数字货币进行全面的测试,因为存在金融稳定风险。

她说:“这是一款新数字货币,是创新领域的一次飞跃,也是人类第一次拥有了能够按照既定程式自动执行任务的货币,它具有功能性。”

在做客Eastworld Spotlight与《财富》编辑钱科雷进行对话时,加扎马拉莉安讨论了中国的数字货币雄心,该计划带来的挑战,以及央行数字货币提升人民币作为储备货币地位的潜力。出于篇幅考虑以及方便理解,本文对以下对话进行了编辑。

《财富》:DCEP是什么?是什么促使中国开发央行数字货币?

露西•加扎拉莉安:DCEP是数字货币电子支付的缩写,是中国版的央行数字货币。过去5年以来,很多央行对数字货币十分关注。中国是该领域第一个吃螃蟹的人(2013年开始)。中国自己也承认,比特币的崛起让其开始采取行动来控制货币供应以及全球各地涌现的不同货币。这才是真正的动因,因为各大央行意识到,而且也十分赞成将比特币的底层技术运用到例如法币领域。各大央行认为这是一个卓越的全新创新,也提供了一个非常令人振奋的支付和支付系统池,它能够真正地升级我们的支付基础设施。

请介绍一下中国的试点情况。

中央政府开展试点项目完全是合乎情理的。这是一款新数字货币,是创新领域的一次飞跃,也是人类第一次拥有了能够按照既定程式自动执行业务的货币,它具有功能性。中国自然希望对其进行非常严格的测试,因为他们不想推出一款失败的货币,因为它关乎整个国家的金融稳定问题。不过也别忘了,中国有680多个城市。但试点的只有4个,因此还有很长的路要走。

中国人民银行后退了一步,并将目光投向了滴滴这类公司。后者占据了中国90%的打车市场,而且拥有数亿名客户。众多的网络巨头让中国声名鹊起,滴滴只是其中之一,其他还包括阿里巴巴、腾讯,这些巨头都有着庞大的生态系统,能够提供全系列的产品和服务。你可以叫一辆出租车,点外卖,发包裹,预定电影票,度假,所有这一切都集中在一起,形成了一个平台。

开展试点工作是必要的。我们需要认真思考整个电子钱包的整合问题……这些公司能确保对相关功能进行优化并进行整合。

为什么中国政府会助推数字货币开发?政府能从其中得到什么?

中国政府自己说过,这已经成为了一种必要的技术。这并不在于中国是否应该从事这项事业,而是绝对需要这么做。这一点也是合理的,因为看看我们的生活,人们正越来愈多地依赖线上生活。我们拥有靠科技赋能的生活,而且正在向数字经济进发,一个涵盖通证化的数字经济。

新数字经济需要数字货币。它需要数字形式的法币。否则,你将面临自于比特币或Libra币的威胁,或其他拥有可整合至新数字经济技术的货币。因此中国以及所有央行都绝对有必要升级其货币。

我们什么时候能看到央行数字货币的大规模发行?

就像我之前所说的那样,我们所知的是它在4个城市开展了试点,但中国还有600个城市。至于是否有必要在这些城市都进行试点,或者当前试点完之后就会发行,这一点有待观望。但是我们预计这类发行的第一阶段必然是要进行的,我觉得可能会在今年年底之前,要不肯定就是在明年。

央行将如何使用数据,以及央行如何让人们对其数据的隐私保护感到安心?

对于即将要搜集的数据,这里存在两个问题。一方面,由于央行可以实时参与一个国家的整个经济活动,央行所搜集的数据是否会被记录在区块链类型的网络中还是分布式分类账中,我们不得而知。因此政府将可以访问所有这些信息。另一方面,此举也会让央行有效地开展工作。因为与其获得延迟的经济数据,倒不如实时监控所有的开支、交易、资金供应、通胀影响等。还可以跟踪人们去了哪里,因为中国人在其他国家做生意时也可以使用央行数字货币。它几乎可以成为一种个人跟踪方式。因此说到隐私和匿名,有很多令人担忧的问题需要我们去慎重考虑。

这一技术推行的是匿名制,但问题在于各大央行是否会实施匿名制,是否会在其货币中融入匿名制?只有时间才能证明,当各大央行推出各自不同的数字货币之时,这些货币是否都是各不相同,而且可能反映其民众的价值和文化?因为各大央行自己也说过这一领域没有通用的准则。对于政府获得相关数据的事实,我们是否能够像对待Facebook这类科技巨头那样予以接纳?因为实际上没有人对其进行制约。

人民币是否能通过央行数字货币成为全球性的储备货币?

如果中国希望其货币能够更加自由地在其国门外流动,中国有技术能力去实现这一点。一带一路倡议沿线60多个城市之间有着大量的贸易,但没有一个统一的货币。美元依然是需要兑换的货币,大多数大额交易需要通过美元来结算。因此,央行数字货币也可以作为一带一路倡议的一部分成为新兴国家的通用支付工具,然后它可以成长为新兴国家全球储备货币。

我们在这一方面依然处于非常初期的阶段。到目前为止,无论用户采用任何货币都需要时间。我们需要等待所有数字货币的开发和面世。我们很难说来自于中国的数字货币将成为新的世界储备货币,因为其他国家的数字货币还未面世。美元自二战结束以来便统治着全球贸易。它已经成为了全球经济密不可分的一部分,我认为这一点在短时间内不会发生改变。

美国如今也设立了数字美元项目;他们非常清楚哪些是必要的。他们知道,要建立数字经济,数字货币必不可少。因此只是时间的问题。

疫情在某种程度上是否加快了数字货币进程?

这是必然的。在美国,众议院发言人南希•佩洛西在其演讲中提到了数字美元,不幸的是与新冠病毒挂上了钩。这里突然间出现了一个绝对必要的使用场景。你如何在一夜之间尽快把钱送到那些急需用钱的人的手中?肯定不是邮寄支票,这是不现实的。如果人们有数字钱包,他们连银行账户都不需要,只需要使用其智能手机,然后从理论上讲,美联储便可以直接将资金存入其数字钱包。这一点异常强大。

我认为对于美国来说,真正触动其开发央行数字货币的诱因是Facebook发起的Libra项目和新冠病毒。而对于中国来说,他们自己也说过,是源于比特币的威胁。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

中国一直在推动数字人民币的发行计划,其目的是成为全球首个发行数字主权货币的国家。

自5月在中国深圳、苏州、成都和雄安这四个城市进行其中央银行数字货币(CBDC)试点之后,中国央行——中国人民银行如今正在与私营公司商谈扩大其测试范围。多家大型公司,例如中国最大的打车公司滴滴出行以及外卖巨头美团点评,都已被纳入候选名单,以通过其影响广泛的平台大规模推行数字货币。

普华永道香港高级经理兼香港金融科技协会区块链委员会联席主席露西•加扎马拉莉安说:“开展试行是十分必要的。”她说,重点是对数字货币进行全面的测试,因为存在金融稳定风险。

她说:“这是一款新数字货币,是创新领域的一次飞跃,也是人类第一次拥有了能够按照既定程式自动执行任务的货币,它具有功能性。”

在做客Eastworld Spotlight与《财富》编辑钱科雷进行对话时,加扎马拉莉安讨论了中国的数字货币雄心,该计划带来的挑战,以及央行数字货币提升人民币作为储备货币地位的潜力。出于篇幅考虑以及方便理解,本文对以下对话进行了编辑。

《财富》:DCEP是什么?是什么促使中国开发央行数字货币?

露西•加扎拉莉安:DCEP是数字货币电子支付的缩写,是中国版的央行数字货币。过去5年以来,很多央行对数字货币十分关注。中国是该领域第一个吃螃蟹的人(2013年开始)。中国自己也承认,比特币的崛起让其开始采取行动来控制货币供应以及全球各地涌现的不同货币。这才是真正的动因,因为各大央行意识到,而且也十分赞成将比特币的底层技术运用到例如法币领域。各大央行认为这是一个卓越的全新创新,也提供了一个非常令人振奋的支付和支付系统池,它能够真正地升级我们的支付基础设施。

请介绍一下中国的试点情况。

中央政府开展试点项目完全是合乎情理的。这是一款新数字货币,是创新领域的一次飞跃,也是人类第一次拥有了能够按照既定程式自动执行业务的货币,它具有功能性。中国自然希望对其进行非常严格的测试,因为他们不想推出一款失败的货币,因为它关乎整个国家的金融稳定问题。不过也别忘了,中国有680多个城市。但试点的只有4个,因此还有很长的路要走。

中国人民银行后退了一步,并将目光投向了滴滴这类公司。后者占据了中国90%的打车市场,而且拥有数亿名客户。众多的网络巨头让中国声名鹊起,滴滴只是其中之一,其他还包括阿里巴巴、腾讯,这些巨头都有着庞大的生态系统,能够提供全系列的产品和服务。你可以叫一辆出租车,点外卖,发包裹,预定电影票,度假,所有这一切都集中在一起,形成了一个平台。

开展试点工作是必要的。我们需要认真思考整个电子钱包的整合问题……这些公司能确保对相关功能进行优化并进行整合。

为什么中国政府会助推数字货币开发?政府能从其中得到什么?

中国政府自己说过,这已经成为了一种必要的技术。这并不在于中国是否应该从事这项事业,而是绝对需要这么做。这一点也是合理的,因为看看我们的生活,人们正越来愈多地依赖线上生活。我们拥有靠科技赋能的生活,而且正在向数字经济进发,一个涵盖通证化的数字经济。

新数字经济需要数字货币。它需要数字形式的法币。否则,你将面临自于比特币或Libra币的威胁,或其他拥有可整合至新数字经济技术的货币。因此中国以及所有央行都绝对有必要升级其货币。

我们什么时候能看到央行数字货币的大规模发行?

就像我之前所说的那样,我们所知的是它在4个城市开展了试点,但中国还有600个城市。至于是否有必要在这些城市都进行试点,或者当前试点完之后就会发行,这一点有待观望。但是我们预计这类发行的第一阶段必然是要进行的,我觉得可能会在今年年底之前,要不肯定就是在明年。

央行将如何使用数据,以及央行如何让人们对其数据的隐私保护感到安心?

对于即将要搜集的数据,这里存在两个问题。一方面,由于央行可以实时参与一个国家的整个经济活动,央行所搜集的数据是否会被记录在区块链类型的网络中还是分布式分类账中,我们不得而知。因此政府将可以访问所有这些信息。另一方面,此举也会让央行有效地开展工作。因为与其获得延迟的经济数据,倒不如实时监控所有的开支、交易、资金供应、通胀影响等。还可以跟踪人们去了哪里,因为中国人在其他国家做生意时也可以使用央行数字货币。它几乎可以成为一种个人跟踪方式。因此说到隐私和匿名,有很多令人担忧的问题需要我们去慎重考虑。

这一技术推行的是匿名制,但问题在于各大央行是否会实施匿名制,是否会在其货币中融入匿名制?只有时间才能证明,当各大央行推出各自不同的数字货币之时,这些货币是否都是各不相同,而且可能反映其民众的价值和文化?因为各大央行自己也说过这一领域没有通用的准则。对于政府获得相关数据的事实,我们是否能够像对待Facebook这类科技巨头那样予以接纳?因为实际上没有人对其进行制约。

人民币是否能通过央行数字货币成为全球性的储备货币?

如果中国希望其货币能够更加自由地在其国门外流动,中国有技术能力去实现这一点。一带一路倡议沿线60多个城市之间有着大量的贸易,但没有一个统一的货币。美元依然是需要兑换的货币,大多数大额交易需要通过美元来结算。因此,央行数字货币也可以作为一带一路倡议的一部分成为新兴国家的通用支付工具,然后它可以成长为新兴国家全球储备货币。

我们在这一方面依然处于非常初期的阶段。到目前为止,无论用户采用任何货币都需要时间。我们需要等待所有数字货币的开发和面世。我们很难说来自于中国的数字货币将成为新的世界储备货币,因为其他国家的数字货币还未面世。美元自二战结束以来便统治着全球贸易。它已经成为了全球经济密不可分的一部分,我认为这一点在短时间内不会发生改变。

美国如今也设立了数字美元项目;他们非常清楚哪些是必要的。他们知道,要建立数字经济,数字货币必不可少。因此只是时间的问题。

疫情在某种程度上是否加快了数字货币进程?

这是必然的。在美国,众议院发言人南希•佩洛西在其演讲中提到了数字美元,不幸的是与新冠病毒挂上了钩。这里突然间出现了一个绝对必要的使用场景。你如何在一夜之间尽快把钱送到那些急需用钱的人的手中?肯定不是邮寄支票,这是不现实的。如果人们有数字钱包,他们连银行账户都不需要,只需要使用其智能手机,然后从理论上讲,美联储便可以直接将资金存入其数字钱包。这一点异常强大。

我认为对于美国来说,真正触动其开发央行数字货币的诱因是Facebook发起的Libra项目和新冠病毒。而对于中国来说,他们自己也说过,是源于比特币的威胁。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

China has been pushing forward its plans to launch a digital yuan, with the aim of becoming the first country in the world to offer a digital sovereign currency.

After launching trials of the Centralized Bank Digital Currency, or CBDC, in four Chinese cities—Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu and Xiong’an—in May, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, is now in talks with private companies to expand its test run. Major firms such as China’s largest ride-hailing company Didi Chuxing and food delivery giant Meituan Dianping are among the candidates to roll out the digital yuan on a large scale through their wide-reaching platforms.

“Trial needs to be underway,” said Lucy Gazamarian, senior manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers Hong Kong and co-chair of the blockchain committee of the FinTech Association of Hong Kong. Thorough testing of the digital currency is key, she says, because financial stability is at stake.

"You're looking at rolling out a new digital currency, it's a leap in innovation," she said. "[I]t's the first time we're going to have money that we program to do things automatically; that has functionality."

In an Eastworld Spotlight conversation with Fortune’s Clay Chandler, Gazmararian discusses Beijing’s digital yuan ambition and the challenges presented by the initiative, as well as the CBDC's potential to elevate the renminbi to a reserve currency. The conversation below has been edited for length and clarity.

Fortune: What is DCEP and what has triggered the development of the Centralized Bank Digital Currency?

Lucy Gazararian: The DCEP, Digital Currency Electronic Payment, is China’s version of the CBDC. Many central banks have been looking at this for over five years. China was the first mover into this space [in 2013]. They've acknowledged themselves that it was the rise of Bitcoin that spurred a call to action to really take control of the money supply and different currencies that were coming into our world. That was a real trigger because central banks realized and appreciated that the technology that underpinned Bitcoin, for example, could be modified for the fiat world. Central banks have appreciated that this is an exceptional new innovation; that it's a very exciting pool payments and payment systems [that has] the ability to really upgrade our payments infrastructure.

Tell us a bit about the trials in China.

It's entirely reasonable that [Beijing] should be conducting pilot programs. You're looking at rolling out a new digital currency, it's a leap in innovation. It's the first time we're going to have money that we program to do things automatically; that has functionality. It's natural that you [will] want to test that out very rigorously because you don't want to roll out a digital currency that fails when you're talking about financial stability of the whole country. But let's not forget there are 680-plus cities in China. We're talking about four [in the pilot], so it's a way to go.

PBOC is taking a step back and looking at companies like DiDi. It got 90% of the ride-hailing business in China and has hundreds of millions of customers. Didi is an example of these Internet giants that China is so famous for—[such as] Alibaba and Tencent—that have incredible ecosystems that offers a whole range of products and services. You could order a taxi, get food delivery, send a parcel, book theatre tickets, go on a holiday, it's all in one space, it’s a platform.

The trial needs to be underway. There's a whole digital wallet integration that needs to be thought through…They are making sure they're optimizing the functionality and ensuring integration.

Why is Beijing pushing for digital currency development? What can the government obtain from this?

It's become, as China itself has said, a technical inevitability. It's not about whether they should embark on this undertaking, it's an absolute necessity. And it makes sense because look at our lives, increasingly we live our lives online. We have tech-enabled lives and are moving towards a digital economy; a digital economy which includes tokenization.

The new digital economy needs digital money. It needs fiat money in a digital format. Otherwise you're having the threat of Bitcoin or Libra coins, or other coins that have the technology that can integrate into the new digital economy. So it's an absolute necessity that China, as well as every other central bank, upgrades their currency.

When will we see a large-scale roll out of CBDC?

As I said earlier, we know about testing in four cities, and you know arguably there's still 600 to go. Whether they're gonna need to test it right across, or they will then just roll out, let's wait and see. But we are expecting certainly phase one of this rollout to happen, I would say before the end of this year or certainly next year.

How will data be used by central banks and how will the central bank reassure people about the privacy of their data?

The data you are going to collect, there are two sides to it. On one side, the data that they're going to collect, given they are going to be able to engage the complete economic activity of a country in realtime, that data will be recorded on a blockchain-type network, distributed ledger, we don't know exactly. So the government will have access to all of that. On the [other] hand, it will enable the central bank to do their job more effectively. Because rather than having a lag in economic data, they're monitoring all the spending, the transactions, money supply, inflation implications, all in realtime... Tracking where people go in the world, because CBDC will be available to Chinese as they do business in other countries. It's almost a sort of a way to track an individual. So there are big alarming questions that need to be properly considered when it comes to privacy and anonymity.

The technology is there to enforce anonymity, but it's a question of are they going to implement it? Is that something that they're going to build into their currency? Time will only tell if different central banks come up with their versions of digital currency, as they say there is no one-size-fits-all, they're all going to be different and likely to reflect the values and culture of their citizens. Are we just going to accept that all governments get to have this data like we've kind of accepted with tech giants like Facebook? No one has really done anything about it.

Could renminbi rise up as the world’s reserve currency through CBDC?

If [China] wants its currency to flow more freely outside of its own borders, it has the technological capability to do that. There's so much trade happening in the Belt and Road [Initiative], 60-plus cities, and there is not a universal currency. The U.S. dollar is still the currency that needs to be translated, most huge transactions need to flow through the U.S. dollar. So there is a case for the CBDC to become a universal payment instrument in emerging countries as part of the Belt and Road, then [maybe] it could rise up as the world's reserve currency for emerging countries.

We are [still] so early in this journey. At the end of the day, user adoption of any currency is going to take time. We need all these currencies to be developed and launched. It's very difficult to say that a digital currency from China is going to be the new world reserve currency because the others have not launched yet. The U.S. dollar has dominated global trade since the end of World War II. It is so integral to our world economy, I don't see that changing anytime soon.

The U.S. now has a digital dollar project; they are very aware of what is necessary. They know for a digital economy, you need a digital currency. So it's a matter of time.

Does the pandemic in a way provide a kind of boost to the effort to move to a digital currency?

Absolutely. In the U.S., [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi mentioned the digital dollar in her speech, and it was sadly tied to coronavirus, COVID-19. Suddenly, there was an absolute apparent use case. How do you get money immediately overnight into the hands of those that most need it? It is not by posting checks in the mail, it's really not. If [people] had a digital wallet, they wouldn't even need a bank account. They just need to use their smartphone and the Fed could theoretically directly deposit funds into their digital wallet. And that was so powerful.

I think for America, it was Libra and coronavirus that really triggered action [to develop CBDC]. And China, they've said it themselves, it was the threat of Bitcoin.

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