研究表明：空出飞机中间座位可以将感染病毒风险降低79%
如果你计划在新冠疫情期间乘坐飞机，那么最好选择一家空出飞机中间座位的航空公司。研究显示，这样的政策将感染新冠病毒的风险从4400分之一降至7300分之一。
这一估计结果由麻省理工斯隆管理学院统计学教授阿诺德•巴尼特得出。他的研究表明，乘坐“无中间座位”的航班可将感染风险降低79%，他还指出，在飞机上因感染新冠病毒而死亡的风险不到50万分之一。
然而，巴尼特承认，鉴于计算这种风险的难度，他的发现只是一个“粗略的估算”。
巴尼特的估算基于许多假设前提，包括假设所有乘客都戴着口罩，这个防护措施可以将感染新冠病毒的风险降低82%。他还假设，人们更可能从处于同一个过道的乘客那里感染新冠病毒，而不是从后面或前面一排的区域。
该研究不认为乘客去洗手间与上下飞机时有较高的感染新冠病毒的风险。但据《华尔街日报》报道，后一种情况可能会带来巨大的风险，因为等待登机或争先恐后存放行李的乘客之间离得很近。
该媒体引用巴尼特的研究认为，总体看，乘坐飞机并不是特别危险，部分原因是飞机的机舱内经常换气。
巴尼特指出，航空公司中间座位的政策也会受到一些经济因素的影响。
他表示，“这里的计算，无论多么粗略，确实表明，当飞机上的中间座位故意保持空着的状态时，新冠疫情的风险可以显著降低。”
问题是，就额外的预防措施而言，放弃三分之一座位的代价是否太高了？（财富中文网）
编译：于佳鑫
如果你计划在新冠疫情期间乘坐飞机，那么最好选择一家空出飞机中间座位的航空公司。研究显示，这样的政策将感染新冠病毒的风险从4400分之一降至7300分之一。
这一估计结果由麻省理工斯隆管理学院统计学教授阿诺德•巴尼特得出。他的研究表明，乘坐“无中间座位”的航班可将感染风险降低79%，他还指出，在飞机上因感染新冠病毒而死亡的风险不到50万分之一。
然而，巴尼特承认，鉴于计算这种风险的难度，他的发现只是一个“粗略的估算”。
巴尼特的估算基于许多假设前提，包括假设所有乘客都戴着口罩，这个防护措施可以将感染新冠病毒的风险降低82%。他还假设，人们更可能从处于同一个过道的乘客那里感染新冠病毒，而不是从后面或前面一排的区域。
该研究不认为乘客去洗手间与上下飞机时有较高的感染新冠病毒的风险。但据《华尔街日报》报道，后一种情况可能会带来巨大的风险，因为等待登机或争先恐后存放行李的乘客之间离得很近。
该媒体引用巴尼特的研究认为，总体看，乘坐飞机并不是特别危险，部分原因是飞机的机舱内经常换气。
巴尼特指出，航空公司中间座位的政策也会受到一些经济因素的影响。
他表示，“这里的计算，无论多么粗略，确实表明，当飞机上的中间座位故意保持空着的状态时，新冠疫情的风险可以显著降低。”
问题是，就额外的预防措施而言，放弃三分之一座位的代价是否太高了？（财富中文网）
编译：于佳鑫
If you plan to fly during the pandemic, you're better off choosing an airline with a policy of keeping the middle seat empty. Such a policy lowers the risk of contracting COVID from 1 in 4,400 to 1 in 7,300, according to a new academic study.
That estimate comes from Arnold Barnett, a statistics professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His findings—which suggest a "no middle seats" flight reduces risk by 79%—also note that the risk of dying from catching COVID on a flight are less than 1 in half a million.
The new research should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as Barnett himself acknowledges. In his paper, he emphasizes that his findings are "rough conjecture" in light of the difficulties in calculating such a risk.
Barnett's calculations are based on numerous assumptions, including that all passengers are wearing masks—a step he says reduces risks of catching COVID by 82%. He also assumes that someone is more likely to catch COVID from those in the same aisle rather than from those in rows behind or in front of them.
The findings also disregard the risk of catching COVID from trips to the restroom, or from boarding or getting off the plane. But the latter situation may pose a significant risk according to the Wall Street Journal, which notes the close proximity of passengers waiting to board or scrambling to store luggage.
The Journal, which cited the Barnett study, suggested that flying is not especially dangerous overall, in part because planes frequently replace the air in the cabin.
For his part, Barnett concludes by noting that middle seat policy will also be informed by economic considerations facing the airlines.
"The calculations here, however rudimentary, do suggest a measurable reduction in Covid-19 risk when middle seats on aircraft are deliberately kept open," he writes. "The question is whether relinquishing 1/3 of seating capacity is too high a price to pay for the added precaution."
