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有五种理论可以解释美股暴涨,哪个最靠谱?

有五种理论可以解释美股暴涨,哪个最靠谱?

Anne Sraders 2020-07-14
本文按照靠谱程度给这五种理论排序,越往后越靠谱。

全世界正在经历有史以来最严重的经济危机之一,更不用说新冠疫情已经夺去了50多万人的生命。然而,股市不会停止上涨。

尽管业余的市场观察家可能会摸不着头脑,但务必要铭记,市场是一种前瞻性机制。这意味着,即使在最坏的情况下(比如,全球经济衰退与致命疫情叠加在一起),市场也可能会展望光明的前景。

在证券经纪商LPL Financial公司的高级市场策略师瑞安•德特里克等人看来,这似乎就是正在发生的事情。

“股市在说:‘一年后,冠状病毒就不再是问题。’它正在把目光投向别处。”德特里克告诉《财富》杂志。

自3月触底以来,标准普尔500指数已经大幅反弹42%。这意味着,今年迄今为止,该指数仅下跌了2%。在过去两周,尽管全美各地的新冠确诊病例继续激增,但股市却上涨了约3%。

那么,股市近期上涨的根本原因是什么?《财富》杂志日前就这一问题采访了三位策略师。

理论一:股市上涨是因为新冠疫情得到了控制

可能性: 不可能

尽管市场正处于上涨轨道,但投资者可能并不是因为觉得疫情得到控制而不断买入股票的。事实上,德特里克表示,许多人仍然“吓得要死”。

不过,随着确诊病例持续激增,“大家现在像是一个休戚与共的大家庭,每个人都在祈祷。”嘉信理财的首席投资策略师利兹•安•桑德斯这样说道。事实上,市场最近并不是一帆风顺:近几周出现了两次回调,“与病毒有关的负面新闻至少是其中的部分推动因素。”桑德斯说。

但这并不意味着投资者现在只关注疫情走向。事实上,在爱德华•琼斯公司的策略师内拉•理查森看来,“投资者更倾向于认为,最好的行情还在后面。我认为市场正处于第一波疫情的前面,甚至走在了第二波疫情的前面,并且已经在展望2021年了。”她告诉《财富》杂志。

理论二:市场上涨是因为投资者希望拜登在11月的大选中获胜

可能性:不可能

大选总是会让市场动荡不安,而且不只是在大选之夜。

一些华尔街公司现在认为,民主党总统候选人拜登的胜利,对于股市来说甚至可能是好兆头。“目前的普遍看法是,如果民主党在11月成功问鼎白宫,将对股市构成利空。不过,我们认为这种结果对股市的影响是中性的,甚至轻微利好。”摩根大通的策略师在7月6日发布的报告中写道。

爱德华•琼斯的理查森说:“市场的估值正在把总统候选人将持有温和立场这一因素考虑在内。因此,鉴于未来总统乔•拜登的政策主张更为温和,民主党将现任总统挑落下马,并不会被市场视为一种极端不利因素。”

然而,包括德特里克在内的多位策略师“并不认为股市是因为拜登将入主白宫而上涨了这么多,至少现在不是这样。”他说。

理论三:市场上涨是因为企业盈利在好转

可能性:有可能

鉴于数十家公司已经暂停发布业绩指引,相关预测惨不忍睹,投资者基本上不再关注2020年的盈利状况。这已经不是什么秘密了。事实上,《财富》杂志在6月初报道称,投资者已经不理会2020年的数据,转而将目光投向2021年的盈利前景,并以此为据来解释目前的股价走势。但桑德斯不太相信这种看法。“即使你对2021年的盈利有所期待,我也不认为在这种环境下,谁会对盈利前景信心十足。”她说。

投资者似乎确信,第二季度的盈利数据可能不会像预期的那样糟糕。

研究公司FactSet的分析师团队预计,第二季度的盈利将暴跌43.8%。但德特里克认为,如此巨大的数字可能会让市场出现意外的上涨行情。“可以有把握地说,市场像目前这样反弹,意味着投资者预计企业的收益将趋于稳定,或者好于预期。”他说。

事实上,理查森认为,“市场已经消化了第二季度盈利有可能大幅下滑的影响,并且预计第三和第四季度的下滑速度将会放缓。”他说:“任何改善,哪怕数据仍然很难看,也会被视为利好。”

理论四:股市上涨是因为经济数据好于预期

可能性:很有可能

德特里克最相信的理论是,经济重启的过程将好于预期,尽管不会一帆风顺。

“股市告诉我们,美国经济的稳健程度确实有可能在今年下半年大幅改善,因为股价走势往往会引领实体经济。我们认为,看好经济重启的前景,或许是市场近期迅速反弹的最强推动力。”他说。

6月的失业率从5月的13.3%和4月的14.7%降至11.1%。与此同时,在连续两个月大幅下降后,消费支出在5月大幅上升8.2%。

制造业也在回暖。供应管理协会编撰的采购经理人指数(PMI)在6月录得52.6,高于5月的43.1(任何高于50的读数都表明制造业处于扩张状态)。在德特里克看来,制造业的反弹堪称“煤矿里的金丝雀”,是经济复苏的好兆头。

爱德华•琼斯的理查森认为,“正是所有这些来自经济基本面的惊喜”,在最近几周提振了市场。“市场关注的不是实际水平,而是变化率。这些变化率现在指向一种积极的、比正常情况更快的复苏。”她说。

但不断改善的数字也构成了威胁。桑德斯认为,“对最初几个月的数据点所做的趋势外推太过超前了。在这种环境下,重要的还是数据的实际水平。”

理论五:股市上涨是拜美联储所赐

可能性:极有可能

市场为什么会上涨?如果你问嘉信理财的桑德斯,答案很简单。“如果要对推动股市上涨的最相关因素进行排序的话,我认为最大的推动力就是美联储,或许还会加上国会,也就是广泛的刺激措施。”

在过去的几个月,从启动主街贷款计划(Main Street Lending Program),到购买公司债券,再到将利率降至基本为零的水平,美联储已经做了所有能做的事情。与此同时,联邦政府启动了规模达2万亿美元的《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES Act)。

即使经济迅速恶化,“不要和美联储作对”这种心态仍然推动市场高歌猛进。桑德斯指出,投资者认为美联储“将在必要时采取行动”,这种想法“或许是对的”。但她担心投资者过于依赖美联储主席鲍威尔手里的那把“流动性注水器”。

桑德斯指出,美联储是金融体系的后盾,但“他们的使命并不是在金融系统不稳定的情况下阻止股市下跌。”从这个意义上说,她想知道,“在美联储推动的股市上涨中,有多少是基于美联储出于正确理由而实际采取的刺激措施,有多少是基于这样一种预期:无论发生什么情况,股市都不会下跌,因为美联储会介入?”(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

全世界正在经历有史以来最严重的经济危机之一,更不用说新冠疫情已经夺去了50多万人的生命。然而,股市不会停止上涨。

尽管业余的市场观察家可能会摸不着头脑,但务必要铭记,市场是一种前瞻性机制。这意味着,即使在最坏的情况下(比如,全球经济衰退与致命疫情叠加在一起),市场也可能会展望光明的前景。

在证券经纪商LPL Financial公司的高级市场策略师瑞安•德特里克等人看来,这似乎就是正在发生的事情。

“股市在说:‘一年后,冠状病毒就不再是问题。’它正在把目光投向别处。”德特里克告诉《财富》杂志。

自3月触底以来,标准普尔500指数已经大幅反弹42%。这意味着,今年迄今为止,该指数仅下跌了2%。在过去两周,尽管全美各地的新冠确诊病例继续激增,但股市却上涨了约3%。

那么,股市近期上涨的根本原因是什么?《财富》杂志日前就这一问题采访了三位策略师。

理论一:股市上涨是因为新冠疫情得到了控制

可能性: 不可能

尽管市场正处于上涨轨道,但投资者可能并不是因为觉得疫情得到控制而不断买入股票的。事实上,德特里克表示,许多人仍然“吓得要死”。

不过,随着确诊病例持续激增,“大家现在像是一个休戚与共的大家庭,每个人都在祈祷。”嘉信理财的首席投资策略师利兹•安•桑德斯这样说道。事实上,市场最近并不是一帆风顺:近几周出现了两次回调,“与病毒有关的负面新闻至少是其中的部分推动因素。”桑德斯说。

但这并不意味着投资者现在只关注疫情走向。事实上,在爱德华•琼斯公司的策略师内拉•理查森看来,“投资者更倾向于认为,最好的行情还在后面。我认为市场正处于第一波疫情的前面,甚至走在了第二波疫情的前面,并且已经在展望2021年了。”她告诉《财富》杂志。

理论二:市场上涨是因为投资者希望拜登在11月的大选中获胜

可能性:不可能

大选总是会让市场动荡不安,而且不只是在大选之夜。

一些华尔街公司现在认为,民主党总统候选人拜登的胜利,对于股市来说甚至可能是好兆头。“目前的普遍看法是,如果民主党在11月成功问鼎白宫,将对股市构成利空。不过,我们认为这种结果对股市的影响是中性的,甚至轻微利好。”摩根大通的策略师在7月6日发布的报告中写道。

爱德华•琼斯的理查森说:“市场的估值正在把总统候选人将持有温和立场这一因素考虑在内。因此,鉴于未来总统乔•拜登的政策主张更为温和,民主党将现任总统挑落下马,并不会被市场视为一种极端不利因素。”

然而,包括德特里克在内的多位策略师“并不认为股市是因为拜登将入主白宫而上涨了这么多,至少现在不是这样。”他说。

理论三:市场上涨是因为企业盈利在好转

可能性:有可能

鉴于数十家公司已经暂停发布业绩指引,相关预测惨不忍睹,投资者基本上不再关注2020年的盈利状况。这已经不是什么秘密了。事实上,《财富》杂志在6月初报道称,投资者已经不理会2020年的数据,转而将目光投向2021年的盈利前景,并以此为据来解释目前的股价走势。但桑德斯不太相信这种看法。“即使你对2021年的盈利有所期待,我也不认为在这种环境下,谁会对盈利前景信心十足。”她说。

投资者似乎确信,第二季度的盈利数据可能不会像预期的那样糟糕。

研究公司FactSet的分析师团队预计,第二季度的盈利将暴跌43.8%。但德特里克认为,如此巨大的数字可能会让市场出现意外的上涨行情。“可以有把握地说,市场像目前这样反弹,意味着投资者预计企业的收益将趋于稳定,或者好于预期。”他说。

事实上,理查森认为,“市场已经消化了第二季度盈利有可能大幅下滑的影响,并且预计第三和第四季度的下滑速度将会放缓。”他说:“任何改善,哪怕数据仍然很难看,也会被视为利好。”

理论四:股市上涨是因为经济数据好于预期

可能性:很有可能

德特里克最相信的理论是,经济重启的过程将好于预期,尽管不会一帆风顺。

“股市告诉我们,美国经济的稳健程度确实有可能在今年下半年大幅改善,因为股价走势往往会引领实体经济。我们认为,看好经济重启的前景,或许是市场近期迅速反弹的最强推动力。”他说。

6月的失业率从5月的13.3%和4月的14.7%降至11.1%。与此同时,在连续两个月大幅下降后,消费支出在5月大幅上升8.2%。

制造业也在回暖。供应管理协会编撰的采购经理人指数(PMI)在6月录得52.6,高于5月的43.1(任何高于50的读数都表明制造业处于扩张状态)。在德特里克看来,制造业的反弹堪称“煤矿里的金丝雀”,是经济复苏的好兆头。

爱德华•琼斯的理查森认为,“正是所有这些来自经济基本面的惊喜”,在最近几周提振了市场。“市场关注的不是实际水平,而是变化率。这些变化率现在指向一种积极的、比正常情况更快的复苏。”她说。

但不断改善的数字也构成了威胁。桑德斯认为,“对最初几个月的数据点所做的趋势外推太过超前了。在这种环境下,重要的还是数据的实际水平。”

理论五:股市上涨是拜美联储所赐

可能性:极有可能

市场为什么会上涨?如果你问嘉信理财的桑德斯,答案很简单。“如果要对推动股市上涨的最相关因素进行排序的话,我认为最大的推动力就是美联储,或许还会加上国会,也就是广泛的刺激措施。”

在过去的几个月,从启动主街贷款计划(Main Street Lending Program),到购买公司债券,再到将利率降至基本为零的水平,美联储已经做了所有能做的事情。与此同时,联邦政府启动了规模达2万亿美元的《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》(CARES Act)。

即使经济迅速恶化,“不要和美联储作对”这种心态仍然推动市场高歌猛进。桑德斯指出,投资者认为美联储“将在必要时采取行动”,这种想法“或许是对的”。但她担心投资者过于依赖美联储主席鲍威尔手里的那把“流动性注水器”。

桑德斯指出,美联储是金融体系的后盾,但“他们的使命并不是在金融系统不稳定的情况下阻止股市下跌。”从这个意义上说,她想知道,“在美联储推动的股市上涨中,有多少是基于美联储出于正确理由而实际采取的刺激措施,有多少是基于这样一种预期:无论发生什么情况,股市都不会下跌,因为美联储会介入?”(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

The world is smack-dab in the middle of one of the worst global economic crises in history, not to mention a pandemic that has claimed over half-a-million lives. Yet the stock market won't stop going up.

While casual market observers may be scratching their heads, it's key to remember the market is a forward-looking mechanism. That means even in the worst-case scenario (like, perhaps, a global recession and pandemic combo), the market is likely looking to brighter days ahead.

And to those like Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist for LPL Financial, that's what seems to be happening.

"The stock market is saying, ‘In a year, the coronavirus is not going to be an issue.’ It’s looking past that," Detrick tells Fortune.

The S&P 500 has recovered a massive 42% since its bottom in March, leaving it down just 2% for the year. And in the past two weeks, while cases of the coronavirus continue to spike across the country, markets have risen about 3%.

Fortune asked three strategists what's underlying the stock market's recent rise.

Theory 1: The market is up because the virus is under control

Likelihood: Not likely

Despite the trajectory of the market, investors are probably not boosting stocks because they think the virus is under control. In fact, Detrick suggests, many are still "scared to death."

As cases keep spiking, though, "it’s sort of a big, collective, everybody’s got their fingers crossed," Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders suggests. Indeed, the market hasn't been all smooth sailing lately: There have been two pullbacks in recent weeks that Sonders says were "at least partly driven by pretty negative news virus-related."

But that doesn't mean investors are purely focused on the virus situation right now. In fact, according to Edward Jones’s Nela Richardson, "I think investors are more thinking the best is yet to come. I think the market is just ahead of the first wave, gets ahead of even a second wave, and is already looking at 2021," she tells Fortune.

Theory 2: The market is up because investors want a Biden victory in November

Likelihood: Not likely

The election was always going to roil the markets, and not just on election night.

Some Wall Street firms are now suggesting a Democratic (Biden) victory could even bode well for the stock market: "The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive," strategists at JPMorgan wrote Monday.

Edward Jones’s Richardson suggests a "more moderate candidacy is now being priced into the market so that a potential Democratic upset of an incumbent President wouldn't be seen as extreme given the more moderate views" of a would-be President Joe Biden.

Yet strategists like Detrick "don’t think the stock market is up as much as it is because it’s a Biden victory, right now at least," he says.

Theory 3: The market is up because earnings are on the mend

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

It's no secret investors have largely been writing off 2020 for earnings, given that dozens of companies have suspended guidance and the estimates are grisly at best. In fact, Fortune reported in early June that investors have already discounted 2020 and are looking to 2021 earnings to justify how stocks are trading now. But Sonders is less convinced that "even on 2021 earnings to the extent you believe them, I don't think anyone can have conviction in earnings in this environment," she says.

What investors do appear to have is conviction that earnings for the second quarter likely won't be as bad as expected.

Analysts at FactSet are estimating earnings in the second quarter will plummet –43.8%. But a huge number like that likely sets markets up for a surprise to the upside, LPL's Detrick suggests. "I think it's safe to say with the market bouncing back like this, it is expecting solid earnings or better-than-expected earnings," he says.

Indeed, Richardson thinks "the market has already discounted a pretty big falloff in [second-quarter earnings], with slower slumps in Q3 and Q4," and that "any improvement, even if it’s bad…[is] going to be regarded as good."

Theory 4: The market is up because economic data is better than expected

Likelihood: Quite likely

Detrick is most convinced by the theory that the reopening, albeit not without its bumps, is going better than expected.

"The stock market is telling us that the economy really could be in much firmer shape the second half of this year because stocks tend to lead the economy, and we do think the theme of the reopening is probably the biggest chunk as to why stocks have bounced back as quickly as they have," he says.

Unemployment dropped to 11.1% in June (down from 13.3% in May and 14.7% in April). Consumer spending for May, meanwhile, surged from two months of massive drops, up 8.2%.

And manufacturing, tracked by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) by the Institute for Supply Management, came in at 52.6 for June, up from 43.1 in May (any reading above 50 indicates expansion). For Detrick, the rebound in manufacturing is "the canary in the coal mine."

It's "all these economic surprises we’ve had" that have helped boost markets in recent weeks, argues Edward Jones’s Richardson. "The market is not focused on levels, they’re focused on rates [of change], and right now those rates point to a positive and quicker-than-normal recovery," she says.

But the ever-improving numbers also pose a threat. Sonders suggests there's been "too much extrapolating of the initial months' data points too far into the future," and that what's important "in this environment is also the level of the data."

Theory 5: The market is up because of the Fed

Likelihood: Extremely likely

Why is the market up? If you ask Charles Schwab's Sonders, the answer is simple: "If you attempted to rank order what is probably most relevant to why the stock market has done what it’s done, I think it’s what the Fed has done and maybe add in Congress—stimulus, broadly."

Over the past several months, the Fed has done it all: from standing up Main Street Lending facilities and corporate bond-buying to cutting interest rates to basically zero; while the government poured over $2 trillion into the CARES Act stimulus package.

The “don't fight the Fed” mentality is one that has bolstered markets even as the economy rapidly deteriorated. Sonders notes that investors "maybe rightly" think the Fed is "going to be there as necessary," but she's anxious investors are relying too much on the Jay Powell–led liquidity injector.

The Fed has the financial system’s back, but "their mandate is not to prevent a down move in the stock market absent financial system stability," Sonders points out. In that sense, she wonders, "how much of this move in the market tied to the Fed is based on the actual stimulus that they’ve kicked in for the right reasons, or a view that no matter what happens, there's no downside in the stock market because the Fed will step in?"

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