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今年标普500指数下跌,竟要怪到巴菲特头上?

今年标普500指数下跌,竟要怪到巴菲特头上?

Jen Wieczner  2020-07-13
巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司一直在拖累整个大盘。

两年多来,苹果的股价又翻了一番,而巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司一直都是苹果的大股东。据巴菲特披露,苹果目前已经占据了他2145亿美元股票投资总和中近44%的份额。受到新冠疫情影响,他在4月时还是选择抛售了航空股,这也进一步促使苹果成为了其投资组合中的“半壁江山”。

当然,在巴菲特的投资被“苹果化”之后,这位股神的“法器”似乎也丧失了原先的多元性与平衡性。一些金融观察人士认为,虽然苹果的股价在今年大涨了30%,但反过来看,苹果的股市表现有多好,巴菲特所持其余股票的股市表现就有多差。事实上,巴菲特投资的第二大股票——美国银行,其股价今年以来已经下跌了34%。随后是可口可乐和美国运通,分别下降了19%和25%。

对巴菲特而言,就算在苹果上加倍下注,也不太能够轻易挽回颓势。今年,美国标普500指数的降幅还未达到2%,但巴菲特所持股票却平均下降了12%。其中唯一一只强势上涨的股票是亚马逊,半年来已经飙升了67%,股市表现甚至超过了苹果。不过,巴菲特手中仅有价值16亿美元的亚马逊股份,远低于苹果的935亿美元。

受到上述影响,巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司本身也不被市场看好。该公司的股市表现甚至要比它所投资的企业还差,更是逊于大盘。截至目前,伯克希尔的股价已经下跌了近20%。股神巴菲特似乎不再这样神圣,从投资回报率来看,普通投资者或投资机构也可以比他做的更好,即便后者没有如此雄厚的财力。

标普500指数前6大上市公司今年以来的投资回报率参考

毋庸置疑,苹果在美国各大股指及共同基金中占据着主导地位。苹果是全球市值最高的公司,其估价达1.66万亿美元,远高于标普500指数成分股平均水平。纵观标普500在美上市公司的市值总和,其中6%的份额是属于苹果的。换而言之,在市场震荡之际,苹果的这一权重有效地提振了投资者的回报率。

除了苹果以外,标普500中微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Facebook这四大科技巨头公司的股价也在今年逆势上涨,快速帮助股指从3月的熊市中恢复过来。

总的来说,巴菲特在今年年初的时候押错了宝,没有预料到疫情对非科技产业所能造成的致命打击。一边是科技股在不断地疯涨,另一边是其它产业在持续地崩溃瓦解,此情此景下,比起持仓巴菲特的伯克希尔,投资者自然更愿意把资金转移到ETF(开放式指数基金)中,以此降低自己的投资风险,或者直接把钱交给苹果来“保管”。如此一来,伯克希尔的跌势也就不足为奇了。

其实,巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司一直在拖累整个大盘。可以看到,伯克希尔在标普500成分股中排名第六,仅次于前五大科技公司。包括伯克希尔在内,这六家公司的总市值一共占标普500指数全体在美上市公司的25%左右。如果没有伯克希尔的话,目前的标普500指数可能会更接近正值。(财富中文网)

编译:陈怡轩

两年多来,苹果的股价又翻了一番,而巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司一直都是苹果的大股东。据巴菲特披露,苹果目前已经占据了他2145亿美元股票投资总和中近44%的份额。受到新冠疫情影响,他在4月时还是选择抛售了航空股,这也进一步促使苹果成为了其投资组合中的“半壁江山”。

当然,在巴菲特的投资被“苹果化”之后,这位股神的“法器”似乎也丧失了原先的多元性与平衡性。一些金融观察人士认为,虽然苹果的股价在今年大涨了30%,但反过来看,苹果的股市表现有多好,巴菲特所持其余股票的股市表现就有多差。事实上,巴菲特投资的第二大股票——美国银行,其股价今年以来已经下跌了34%。随后是可口可乐和美国运通,分别下降了19%和25%。

对巴菲特而言,就算在苹果上加倍下注,也不太能够轻易挽回颓势。今年,美国标普500指数的降幅还未达到2%,但巴菲特所持股票却平均下降了12%。其中唯一一只强势上涨的股票是亚马逊,半年来已经飙升了67%,股市表现甚至超过了苹果。不过,巴菲特手中仅有价值16亿美元的亚马逊股份,远低于苹果的935亿美元。

受到上述影响,巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司本身也不被市场看好。该公司的股市表现甚至要比它所投资的企业还差,更是逊于大盘。截至目前,伯克希尔的股价已经下跌了近20%。股神巴菲特似乎不再这样神圣,从投资回报率来看,普通投资者或投资机构也可以比他做的更好,即便后者没有如此雄厚的财力。

标普500指数前6大上市公司今年以来的投资回报率参考

毋庸置疑,苹果在美国各大股指及共同基金中占据着主导地位。苹果是全球市值最高的公司,其估价达1.66万亿美元,远高于标普500指数成分股平均水平。纵观标普500在美上市公司的市值总和,其中6%的份额是属于苹果的。换而言之,在市场震荡之际,苹果的这一权重有效地提振了投资者的回报率。

除了苹果以外,标普500中微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Facebook这四大科技巨头公司的股价也在今年逆势上涨,快速帮助股指从3月的熊市中恢复过来。

总的来说,巴菲特在今年年初的时候押错了宝,没有预料到疫情对非科技产业所能造成的致命打击。一边是科技股在不断地疯涨,另一边是其它产业在持续地崩溃瓦解,此情此景下,比起持仓巴菲特的伯克希尔,投资者自然更愿意把资金转移到ETF(开放式指数基金)中,以此降低自己的投资风险,或者直接把钱交给苹果来“保管”。如此一来,伯克希尔的跌势也就不足为奇了。

其实,巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司一直在拖累整个大盘。可以看到,伯克希尔在标普500成分股中排名第六,仅次于前五大科技公司。包括伯克希尔在内,这六家公司的总市值一共占标普500指数全体在美上市公司的25%左右。如果没有伯克希尔的话,目前的标普500指数可能会更接近正值。(财富中文网)

编译:陈怡轩

For more than two years, Apple stock has been the largest holding in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway portfolio, roughly doubling in value over that time. The coronavirus pandemic has tipped the scales further: Apple now accounts for nearly 44% of Buffett's roughly $214.5 billion in stocks, based on the investor's most recent disclosures—including his announcement that he sold out of airline stocks in April.

Of course, while the heavy concentration in Apple has, as some observers have pointed out, left the Oracle of Omaha's portfolio lopsided and less than diversified, that's as much a reflection of how well Apple stock has performed this year—up some 30% year to date—as it is of how poorly Buffett's other holdings have done. Indeed, Buffett's second-largest holding, Bank of America stock, has plunged 34% so far this year; his next largest, Coca-Cola, has fallen 19%; after that, American Express is down 25%.

Even doubling down on Apple wasn't enough for Buffett to make up for those dismal returns: In a year in which the S&P 500 is down less than 2% so far, the stocks Buffett owns have fallen an average of nearly 12%. The only stock that did better than Apple in Berkshire's holdings is Amazon, up almost 67%—but Buffett's stake in the company, worth $1.6 billion, makes it a tiny holding next to Apple, of which the investor owns $93.5 billion in shares.

Holding those cards, Berkshire Hathaway stock itself has underperformed many of the companies in its own portfolio, as well as the broader market. Berkshire shares have fallen 20% year to date. Though Buffett is known for his investing prowess, it's likely many average investors' returns have easily outperformed his—even if they don't have nearly half of their money invested in Apple.

Apple has become such a juggernaut, with a $1.66 trillion market cap that makes it the most valuable company in the world, that it dominates every major U.S. stock index and many broad-based mutual funds. Apple accounts for nearly 6% of the value of the S&P 500—a weighting that has helped buoy investors' returns amid spiking market volatility.

It's not just Apple, either: The other big four tech companies at the top of the S&P 500—Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook—have gained significantly in 2020, helping to power the stock index's comeback from a bear market in March.

Meanwhile, Buffett's light helping of tech stocks besides Apple has hurt his relative performance compared to the broader market, as tech companies have continued surging this year while other industries faltered. Ultimately, investors would have been better off putting their money in an S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF)—or just Apple stock itself—than they would have been by investing in Berkshire Hathaway.

And here's an odd twist: Buffett's own portfolio has been dragging down the broader market. After the five big tech stocks, Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, is the sixth-biggest constituent in the S&P 500, right after Facebook. Together, those six companies make up a quarter—or 25%—of the total index. Without Berkshire, the S&P 500 might be closer to positive territory by now.

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