立即打开
为何对特朗普来说,美股的飙升是个坏消息?

为何对特朗普来说,美股的飙升是个坏消息?

Jen Wieczner 2020-07-07
市场可能已经预测出,唐纳德•特朗普和乔•拜登二人之间,谁将会最终赢得大选。

第一季度的熊市过后,美股在2020年第二季度创下了20多年来的最佳表现:标准普尔指数第二季度的涨幅为20%,这是它自1998年以来的最大季度涨幅。

虽然要等到临近11月的总统大选时,市场观察人士才会从股市表现层面分析谁会获胜,但如果历史可供参考,市场可能已经预测出,唐纳德•特朗普和乔•拜登二人之间,谁将会最终赢得大选。

CFRA Research的数据显示,在过去60年里,只有4个总统选举年的股市表现为,标普500指数在第一季度下跌,但在第二季度上涨,就像2020年迄今的情况一样。1960年、1968年、1980年和1992年的模式均相同:标准普尔500指数在第二季度平均涨幅为8%——根据CFRA首席投资策略师萨姆•斯托瓦尔的说法,“这一切都是在见证执政党总统的落败”。

换句话说,在那些年里,现任总统都输掉了选举。最近一次是在1992年,乔治•H•W•布什被比尔•克林顿击败。在那之前的1980年,罗纳德•里根击败了吉米•卡特。而今年,现任总统是特朗普,对手是民主党候选人乔•拜登。

值得注意的是,无论现任总统是共和党人还是民主党人,都不会影响这个特殊的市场信号。这个模式仅仅表明了,在过去,当股市表现如此时,总统选举结果是新旧交替。

斯托瓦尔说,“不确定性”一直是投资者的主旋律。他指出,当这种情况在大选前出现时,它往往预示着白宫现总统将在11月下台。事实上,当标普500指数在8月至10月期间,即大选前夕下跌时,现任总统被替换的几率为88%。(该数据只有一个例外——1956年德怀特•D•艾森豪威尔总统击败了挑战者阿德莱•史蒂文森。)

因此,如果仅是2020年上半年的股市季度变化,还不足以说服你谁将赢得大选,那么请密切关注从8月份开始的股市走势,其可以预测特朗普总统是否会连任。(财富中文网)

译者:Claire

第一季度的熊市过后,美股在2020年第二季度创下了20多年来的最佳表现:标准普尔指数第二季度的涨幅为20%,这是它自1998年以来的最大季度涨幅。

虽然要等到临近11月的总统大选时,市场观察人士才会从股市表现层面分析谁会获胜,但如果历史可供参考,市场可能已经预测出,唐纳德•特朗普和乔•拜登二人之间,谁将会最终赢得大选。

CFRA Research的数据显示,在过去60年里,只有4个总统选举年的股市表现为,标普500指数在第一季度下跌,但在第二季度上涨,就像2020年迄今的情况一样。1960年、1968年、1980年和1992年的模式均相同:标准普尔500指数在第二季度平均涨幅为8%——根据CFRA首席投资策略师萨姆•斯托瓦尔的说法,“这一切都是在见证执政党总统的落败”。

换句话说,在那些年里,现任总统都输掉了选举。最近一次是在1992年,乔治•H•W•布什被比尔•克林顿击败。在那之前的1980年,罗纳德•里根击败了吉米•卡特。而今年,现任总统是特朗普,对手是民主党候选人乔•拜登。

值得注意的是,无论现任总统是共和党人还是民主党人,都不会影响这个特殊的市场信号。这个模式仅仅表明了,在过去,当股市表现如此时,总统选举结果是新旧交替。

斯托瓦尔说,“不确定性”一直是投资者的主旋律。他指出,当这种情况在大选前出现时,它往往预示着白宫现总统将在11月下台。事实上,当标普500指数在8月至10月期间,即大选前夕下跌时,现任总统被替换的几率为88%。(该数据只有一个例外——1956年德怀特•D•艾森豪威尔总统击败了挑战者阿德莱•史蒂文森。)

因此,如果仅是2020年上半年的股市季度变化,还不足以说服你谁将赢得大选,那么请密切关注从8月份开始的股市走势,其可以预测特朗普总统是否会连任。(财富中文网)

译者:Claire

After plunging into a bear market in the first quarter, stocks finished the second quarter of 2020 with their best performance in more than two decades: The S&P rose 20% in the three months ended June, its biggest quarterly run since 1998.

While some market watchers like to wait until closer to the November presidential election to read stocks for signs of who will win, if history is a guide, the market may already have predicted whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will prevail.

In the past six decades, there have only been four presidential election years when the S&P 500 fell in the first quarter but rose in the second, as it has so far in 2020, according to CFRA Research. In each of those years—1960, 1968, 1980 and 1992—the pattern was the same: the S&P 500 went on to rise an average of 8% in the second half of the year—"all while witnessing a presidential defeat for the incumbent party," according to CFRA's chief investment strategist Sam Stovall.

In other words, in each of those years, the sitting commander in chief lost the election. Last time, in '92, it was George H.W. Bush, defeated by Bill Clinton. Before that, in '80, Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter. This year, the incumbent is President Trump, facing Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Notably, whether the incumbent president is a Republican or Democrat is irrelevant to this particular market signal—the pattern merely shows that in the past, when stocks have behaved this way, it has been out with the old and in with the new.

Stovall says that "uncertainty" has been the dominant theme for investors. And when that's the case leading up to the election, it tends to presage a White House ouster in November, he notes. Indeed, when the S&P 500 declines in the period from August through October, just ahead of the election, the incumbent president has been replaced 88% of the time. (That statistic means there's been only one exception to the rule—when President Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated challenger Adlai Stevenson in 1956.)

So if the quarterly flip-flop in the first half of 2020 alone isn't enough to convince you who will win the election, keep a close eye on stocks beginning in August—together the market moves could predict whether President Trump will serve another four years.

热读文章
热门视频
扫描二维码下载财富APP