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美国二季度GDP会跌多惨?预测结果让人吃惊

美国二季度GDP会跌多惨?预测结果让人吃惊

Lee Clifford, Anne Sraders 2020年06月30日
美联储的预测数据表明,虽然隧道尽头还有一线光明,但要走出第二季度的深坑并非易事。

数字相当惊人。

多位经济学家忙着讨论经济将如何复苏,不过首先还得面对第二季度的小问题。众人公认美国GDP跌幅将创下历史纪录,而在具体跌多少方面的意见并不统一。

亚特兰大联储的GDPNow跟踪系统是广受关注的指标之一,该系统的基础是数学模型,可以利用最新发布的经济数据来预测未来一个季度的GDP数据变动。截至6月25日星期四,GDPNow发布的第二季度GDP预测结果让人大跌眼镜,预测下跌46.6%。

图片来源:GettyImages

不过,由于上周五发布的消费者支出数据好于预期,预测结果有所改善,跌幅变为39.5%。GDPNow下次更新数据会于7月1日星期三发布。

跟踪系统还提供了重要的警告。网站上的一条注释写道:“GDPNow并非亚特兰大联储的官方预测。最好将其当作基于当前季度已掌握数据对实际GDP增长的持续估算。而且,预测结果仅关注到新冠疫情对GDP原始数据和已发布相关经济报告的影响,疫情其他方面的影响并未捕捉到。”

在华尔街其他地方,对第二季度的预测也大幅下滑,有些人认为只能算可怕,有些人则认为将迎来大灾难。高盛的最新预测为本季度经济下跌33%左右,纽约联储的Nowcast(类似的GDP实时跟踪系统)则上调了第二季度的预测,认为将下跌16.3%左右。

亚特兰大联储和纽约联储调整后的预测数据(以及不断改善的数据)表明,虽然隧道尽头还有一线光明,但要走出第二季度的深坑并非易事。

“好消息是,经济开始增长了。坏消息是增长的起点是非常深的巨坑,需要很长时间才能恢复。”瑞银全球财富管理的高级经济学家布赖恩•罗斯最近对《财富》杂志说道。

与此同时,国际货币基金组织(IMF)的首席经济学家吉塔•戈皮纳特于上周三在新闻发布会上表示,“很明显,我们还没有脱离困境。”IMF下调了对美国全年GDP的预测。戈皮纳特指出,“这场危机的严重程度前所未有,复苏的难度同样前所未见。”

不过有一点可以肯定:不管最终公布的GDP数字是多少,肯定会创造历史。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

数字相当惊人。

多位经济学家忙着讨论经济将如何复苏,不过首先还得面对第二季度的小问题。众人公认美国GDP跌幅将创下历史纪录,而在具体跌多少方面的意见并不统一。

亚特兰大联储的GDPNow跟踪系统是广受关注的指标之一,该系统的基础是数学模型,可以利用最新发布的经济数据来预测未来一个季度的GDP数据变动。截至6月25日星期四,GDPNow发布的第二季度GDP预测结果让人大跌眼镜,预测下跌46.6%。

不过,由于上周五发布的消费者支出数据好于预期,预测结果有所改善,跌幅变为39.5%。GDPNow下次更新数据会于7月1日星期三发布。

跟踪系统还提供了重要的警告。网站上的一条注释写道:“GDPNow并非亚特兰大联储的官方预测。最好将其当作基于当前季度已掌握数据对实际GDP增长的持续估算。而且,预测结果仅关注到新冠疫情对GDP原始数据和已发布相关经济报告的影响,疫情其他方面的影响并未捕捉到。”

在华尔街其他地方,对第二季度的预测也大幅下滑,有些人认为只能算可怕,有些人则认为将迎来大灾难。高盛的最新预测为本季度经济下跌33%左右,纽约联储的Nowcast(类似的GDP实时跟踪系统)则上调了第二季度的预测,认为将下跌16.3%左右。

亚特兰大联储和纽约联储调整后的预测数据(以及不断改善的数据)表明,虽然隧道尽头还有一线光明,但要走出第二季度的深坑并非易事。

“好消息是,经济开始增长了。坏消息是增长的起点是非常深的巨坑,需要很长时间才能恢复。”瑞银全球财富管理的高级经济学家布赖恩•罗斯最近对《财富》杂志说道。

与此同时,国际货币基金组织(IMF)的首席经济学家吉塔•戈皮纳特于上周三在新闻发布会上表示,“很明显,我们还没有脱离困境。”IMF下调了对美国全年GDP的预测。戈皮纳特指出,“这场危机的严重程度前所未有,复苏的难度同样前所未见。”

不过有一点可以肯定:不管最终公布的GDP数字是多少,肯定会创造历史。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

That’s a big number.

While plenty of economists are busy debating the shape of an eventual economic recovery, there’s still the small matter of the second quarter to get through first. And while everyone agrees U.S. GDP is in for a historic drop, there’s still a wide variety of opinions about just how big that drop will be.

One widely watched gauge is the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, a mathematical model that feeds in new economic data as it is released, and tries to factor in how it will move the overall GDP figure for an upcoming quarter. And as of Thursday June 25, the GDPNow’s estimate for second-quarter GDP was a stunning –46.6%.

However by last Friday that had improved somewhat, to –39.5%, based on better than expected consumer spending data. The next GDPNow update will be released on Wednesday July 1.

The tracker does come with a significant caveat. As a note on the site reads, “GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released.”

Elsewhere on Wall Street, forecasts for the second quarter have careened wildly, ranging from merely terrible to downright catastrophic. Goldman Sachs’s latest prediction is around –33% for the quarter, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast (a similarly real-time GDP tracker) has actually raised its second-quarter estimates to around –16.3%.

While the revised estimates from both the Atlanta Fed and the New York Fed (as well as the improving data) suggest there is light at the end of the tunnel, the second quarter could prove a deep hole to dig out of.

“The good news [is] that we are starting to grow again. The bad news is that we’re starting from an awfully deep hole” that will take a long time to recover from, UBS Global Wealth Management senior economist Brian Rose recently told Fortune.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Gita Gopinath said at a press briefing on last Wednesday, “We are definitely not out of the woods.” The IMF lowered full-year GDP estimates for the U.S., and Gopinath noted, “This is a crisis like no other and will have a recovery like no other.”

One thing’s for sure: Whatever the actual GDP number is, it will certainly make history.

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