对中国经济复苏和GDP回升，经济学家表示“越来越乐观”
经济学家上调了对本季度和2020年中国经济增长的预测，这表明他们对中国经济复苏持更加乐观的态度。
据彭博社上周的一项调查显示，今年第二季度中国GDP将较上年同期增长1.5%，高于5月调查显示的1.2%。经济学家还将中国全年经济增长预期从1.7%上调至1.8%。
调查结果表明，在中国经济因为抗击新冠疫情而出现6.8%的历史性下滑之后，这个全球第二大经济体将能够摆脱一些经济学家此前预计的技术性衰退的困境。与此同时，尽管一些产业已经明显恢复，但消费仍在萎缩。
“中国经济将继续恢复增长势头。”安盛集团驻香港高级经济学家姚艾丹表示。“随着工业生产和服务业产出双双恢复增长，我们预计第二季度GDP将出现正增长。”
政策制定者已经承诺发行创纪录规模的政府债券，以帮助提振国内需求，并要求银行向企业提供更多信贷以及免息期。
相比之下，调查了中国3300多家企业的《中国褐皮书》曾经指出，从4月到6月的三个月内，中国经济再次萎缩，并有可能陷入全年衰退。
建银国际在季度报告中称，制造业利润、资本支出和零售销售等关键指标仍处于历史低位，与第一季相比几乎没有改善。
但接受彭博社调查的经济学家预计，工业产出和固定资产投资的增长会继续加速，下半年将达到与疫情爆发前相似的水平。
与此同时，阻力依然存在，尤其是需求方面。经济学家预测，2020年中国消费仍旧处于萎缩状态。调查显示，由于需求不足，工厂通缩将持续全年，而消费通胀很可能因为需求不足而大幅放缓。
货币宽松政策可能会提振需求，使企业借贷成本下降。经济学家预计，中国央行将在第三季度把主要银行的名义存款准备金率从当前的12.5%下调至11.5%，并将关键的7天逆回购利率从当前的2.2%下调至2.05%。
另一项调查显示，交易员和市场分析师对政策前景的预期较为温和，预计9月前存款准备金率将降至12%，7天逆回购利率将降至2.1%。
中信证券固定收益研究部主管明明表示，货币政策的重点正从以前的快速降息转向宽松信贷政策。他说：“在特殊主权和地方债券的支持下，经济基本面的复苏势头将在第三季度继续保持，这意味着债券收益率将在高位波动。”
其他调查结果包括：
广义货币M2今年的增长率将保持在11%以上；
到今年年底，季度城镇失业率可能会下降至5.4%；
到第三季度末，10年期债券收益率将保持在2.75%，而一项针对交易员和分析师的独立调查显示，收益率将保持在2.8%。（财富中文网）
编译：于佳鑫
经济学家上调了对本季度和2020年中国经济增长的预测，这表明他们对中国经济复苏持更加乐观的态度。
据彭博社上周的一项调查显示，今年第二季度中国GDP将较上年同期增长1.5%，高于5月调查显示的1.2%。经济学家还将中国全年经济增长预期从1.7%上调至1.8%。
调查结果表明，在中国经济因为抗击新冠疫情而出现6.8%的历史性下滑之后，这个全球第二大经济体将能够摆脱一些经济学家此前预计的技术性衰退的困境。与此同时，尽管一些产业已经明显恢复，但消费仍在萎缩。
“中国经济将继续恢复增长势头。”安盛集团驻香港高级经济学家姚艾丹表示。“随着工业生产和服务业产出双双恢复增长，我们预计第二季度GDP将出现正增长。”
政策制定者已经承诺发行创纪录规模的政府债券，以帮助提振国内需求，并要求银行向企业提供更多信贷以及免息期。
相比之下，调查了中国3300多家企业的《中国褐皮书》曾经指出，从4月到6月的三个月内，中国经济再次萎缩，并有可能陷入全年衰退。
建银国际在季度报告中称，制造业利润、资本支出和零售销售等关键指标仍处于历史低位，与第一季相比几乎没有改善。
但接受彭博社调查的经济学家预计，工业产出和固定资产投资的增长会继续加速，下半年将达到与疫情爆发前相似的水平。
与此同时，阻力依然存在，尤其是需求方面。经济学家预测，2020年中国消费仍旧处于萎缩状态。调查显示，由于需求不足，工厂通缩将持续全年，而消费通胀很可能因为需求不足而大幅放缓。
货币宽松政策可能会提振需求，使企业借贷成本下降。经济学家预计，中国央行将在第三季度把主要银行的名义存款准备金率从当前的12.5%下调至11.5%，并将关键的7天逆回购利率从当前的2.2%下调至2.05%。
另一项调查显示，交易员和市场分析师对政策前景的预期较为温和，预计9月前存款准备金率将降至12%，7天逆回购利率将降至2.1%。
中信证券固定收益研究部主管明明表示，货币政策的重点正从以前的快速降息转向宽松信贷政策。他说：“在特殊主权和地方债券的支持下，经济基本面的复苏势头将在第三季度继续保持，这意味着债券收益率将在高位波动。”
其他调查结果包括：
广义货币M2今年的增长率将保持在11%以上；
到今年年底，季度城镇失业率可能会下降至5.4%；
到第三季度末，10年期债券收益率将保持在2.75%，而一项针对交易员和分析师的独立调查显示，收益率将保持在2.8%。（财富中文网）
编译：于佳鑫
Economists upgraded their forecasts for China’s economic growth this quarter and for 2020, signaling more optimism that the country is on track for a gradual recovery.
Gross domestic product will expand at 1.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey last week. That’s faster than 1.2% growth seen in the last survey in May. Economists also dialed up their full-year growth projection to 1.8% from 1.7%.
The results indicate the world’s second-largest economy will be able to escape a technical recession that some economists had envisioned after a historic slump of 6.8% in the first three months of the year amid the coronavirus shutdowns. At the same time, while industry has returned to growth, households are still wary and consumption remains in contraction.
“The Chinese economy has continued to regain growth momentum,” said Aidan Yao, senior economist at AXA SA in Hong Kong. “With industrial production and services output both resuming growth, we now expect a positive GDP growth print for the second quarter.”
Policy makers have pledged a record amount of government debt sales to help boost domestic demand, and banks have been told to extend more credit to businesses as well as offer interest-payment holidays.
By contrast, China Beige Book, which surveyed more than 3,300 firms in the country, said the economy contracted again in the three months to June and is heading for a full-year recession.
Key metrics including manufacturing profits, capital expenditures and retail sales volumes remained at historically low levels and barely improved from those in the first quarter, CBB International said in a quarterly report.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect growth in industrial output and fixed-asset investment to continue to accelerate and reach a pace similar to the pre-virus level in the second half, the survey showed.
Meanwhile, headwinds will remain in place especially on the demand side. Concerns about job stability and the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Beijing will likely weigh on consumption, which economists forecast to remain in contraction for 2020. Factory deflation will stay throughout the year and consumer inflation will likely soften significantly on lack of demand, survey showed.
More monetary easing will likely come to shore up demand and guide borrowing costs for businesses lower. Economists expect the People’s Bank of China to cut the nominal reserve ratio for major banks to 11.5% from the current 12.5% in the third quarter, as well as slashing the key 7-day reverse repo interest rate to 2.05% from the current 2.2%.
A separate survey polling traders and market analysts showed more modest expectations for the policy outlook, in which reserve ratios are expected to be lowered to 12% and the 7-day reverse repo rate to 2.1% by September.
The focus of monetary policy is shifting to credit easing from the rapid reduction of interest rates previously, according to Ming Ming, head of fixed-income research at Citic Securities Co. in Beijing. “The recovery momentum in economic fundamentals will be kept up in the third quarter under the support of special sovereign and local bonds, which means bond yields will fluctuate at a high level,” he said.
Other findings from the surveys include:
Broad money M2 growth will stay above 11% for the year
The surveyed urban jobless rate will likely decline each quarter to 5.4% by the end of the year
The 10-year bond yield will stay at 2.75% by the end of the third quarter, while a separate survey polling traders and analysts see the yield staying at 2.8%
