经济学家：美国经济已经进入了恢复期
至少有一名知名经济学家认为，我们已经触碰到了新冠疫情衰退的谷底。
Moody’s Analytics的首席经济学家马克•赞迪称：“我认为衰退已经结束。衰退在5月就结束了，我们将在6月看到就业出现增长，我们进入了恢复期。”
赞迪对《财富》杂志说，于3月开始的大规模收紧在5月底出现了反转，因为各州都开始放松对关停的限制。领取失业救助金的美国民众数量上周减少了390万，其总数降至2100万人。赞迪预测，劳工部发布的数据会显示，美国领取失业保险金人数再次出现大幅下滑。
380万的救助金领取人数降幅意味着招聘和再招聘已经回归经济。然而，我们还有很长一段路要走，因为3月14日那一周仅有180万民众在领取失业保险，而在5月9日这个数字达到了2490万的峰值。
各大公司在5月取消的岗位少于预期。上周三，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）的报告称，5月私人市场职位减少了近280万个，远低于一些经济学家预测的800多万个，更是大大低于4月的1960万个。
然而，走出经济增长和活动不断下滑的衰退期、进入恢复期并不意味着经济风暴已经过去。经济可能会需要数个月乃至数年的时间才能恢复。赞迪预测，失业率会在6月出现下滑，但至少在9月前依然会高于10%。
赞迪表示：“要走出衰退期，我们还得经历很长的时间。这是自上世纪30年代以来最严重的下滑。然而，我们已经越过了谷底，这意味着衰退已经结束。”（财富中文网）
译者：Feb
至少有一名知名经济学家认为，我们已经触碰到了新冠疫情衰退的谷底。
Moody’s Analytics的首席经济学家马克•赞迪称：“我认为衰退已经结束。衰退在5月就结束了，我们将在6月看到就业出现增长，我们进入了恢复期。”
赞迪对《财富》杂志说，于3月开始的大规模收紧在5月底出现了反转，因为各州都开始放松对关停的限制。领取失业救助金的美国民众数量上周减少了390万，其总数降至2100万人。赞迪预测，劳工部发布的数据会显示，美国领取失业保险金人数再次出现大幅下滑。
380万的救助金领取人数降幅意味着招聘和再招聘已经回归经济。然而，我们还有很长一段路要走，因为3月14日那一周仅有180万民众在领取失业保险，而在5月9日这个数字达到了2490万的峰值。
各大公司在5月取消的岗位少于预期。上周三，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）的报告称，5月私人市场职位减少了近280万个，远低于一些经济学家预测的800多万个，更是大大低于4月的1960万个。
然而，走出经济增长和活动不断下滑的衰退期、进入恢复期并不意味着经济风暴已经过去。经济可能会需要数个月乃至数年的时间才能恢复。赞迪预测，失业率会在6月出现下滑，但至少在9月前依然会高于10%。
赞迪表示：“要走出衰退期，我们还得经历很长的时间。这是自上世纪30年代以来最严重的下滑。然而，我们已经越过了谷底，这意味着衰退已经结束。”（财富中文网）
译者：Feb
On Friday the unemployment rate for May will be released, and it's expected to be around 20%, up from 3.5% in February. But even as we await that Great Depression-level jobless rate, at least one prominent economist thinks we have already hit the bottom of the COVID-19 recession.
"I think the recession is over. The recession ended in May, and in June we'll see job growth," says Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. "We are in recovery."
The massive contractions that started in March reversed in late May as states began to loosen up on their shutdowns, Zandi told Fortune. The number of Americans on unemployment benefits fell 3.9 million last week to a total of 21 million receiving benefits. And Zandi forecast the Department of Labor's data release will show another massive decline in the number of Americans on unemployment insurance.
A 3.8 million decline in the number of Americans on state unemployment rolls points to hiring and rehiring in the economy. However, we have a long way to go—given only 1.8 million people were on unemployment insurance the week of March 14, a number that peaked at 24.9 million the week of May 9.
And companies eliminated fewer jobs than expected in May. On last Wednesday, ADP reported private payroll fell by almost 2.8 million jobs in May. That was well below the more than 8 million some economists expected, and far under the 19.6 million lost jobs in April.
But being out of the recession phase—when economic growth and activity are declining—and into the recovery phase doesn't mean the economic storm has passed. The economy could take months or years to recover. Zandi foresees the unemployment rate falling in June, but staying above 10% until at least September.
"We have a long way to dig out of this. It is the most severe downturn since the 1930s. But we are coming off the bottom, and that is the end of the recession," Zandi says.
