股价虚高！美联储经济学家敲响了警钟
美联储向投资者们敲响了警钟：股市涨的过快过猛了，除非美国能够异常快速地实现经济复苏，否则投资者有可能会因为市场泡沫而损失大笔资金。实际上，美联储的态度过于温和，因为无论经济复苏需要多长时间，股市暴涨都会使股价虚高。
美联储于5月15日公布了上半年度《金融稳定报告》，就当前的资产价格形势和未来走势提出了两点警告。首先，投资者寄希望于新冠疫情会很快结束而购买房地产、股票或进行其他投资，这一举动可能会造成坏账损失。央行经济学家指出：“一旦疫情恶化，资产价格将大幅下跌，结果是负面经济影响进一步加剧，或是再次重创金融体系。”
美联储还特别指出，标普500指数自触及3月低点以来已经反弹逾30%所带来的危险。报告指出：“自3月下旬以来，市盈率已涨至疫情爆发之前水平。自触及谷底以来，股价已大幅上涨，分析师对公司收益的预期也因为经济恶化而有所下降。”
但美联储的分析让人们很难看清股票价格到底有多高。问题在于，“市盈率”这一指标（即市盈率倍数）有两个变动部分：即价格和利润。因此，收益预测快速下降，再加上标准普尔指数大涨，让估值在数周内就从多年来从未遇见的低谷上涨至超过2019年年底达到的高位。美联储在这份报告中引用了Refinitiv提供的数据，该公司咨询了买方分析师，并根据其预测提供了大量数据。截至2019年年底，Refinitiv调查预测，标普将公布2020年GAAP每股收益为163美元，“远期”市盈率约为19。
令人惊讶的是，当标普指数在3月下旬触及低点时，一向过于乐观的分析师们表现得甚至比往常还要悲观：他们预计，此后12个月，利润将下跌至160美元。因此，明显过高的利润预期抬高了分母值，正如股价下跌34%正在挤压分子值一样。因此，3月底的市盈率暴跌至14，这在自大萧条以后从未出现过。
之后，两个变动部分都发生了逆转：价格飙升，利润预期暴跌。在Refinitiv发布的最新报告中，分析师预测未来12个月的利润仅为129.5美元，比六周前预期低19%。由于利润预期下滑，再加上价格暴涨，该报告将美联储报告中提到的市盈率从14提升至19，正好与2019年年底一样。
此次反复使美联储感到震惊。但是，央行数据来自4月底的价格。此后，标普指数持续飙升，截至5月18日中午，远期市盈率升至22.8：比去年年底高出20%。
华尔街可能会辩称，超出23个点看起来很离谱，但这并不能说明什么，因为这是全面封锁下的利润预期，而在复苏期，利润会强劲反弹。那么，专业人士认为利润会反弹到什么水平？其估值是否合理？
用“Tully 20”规则可以做出最好的证明。“Tully 20”规则用标普500指数“价格”除以市盈率20（过去50年的平均值）。购买标普股票的人显然预计该指数将自此开始上涨，因此我们假设，到2022年第二季度，两年内价格小幅上涨10%。在此情况下，该指数将达到3,250。要想市盈率达到20，每股收益需要达到163美元（价格3250美元除以市盈率20）。
这比2019年年底公布的创纪录利润高出17%，但这种情况不会发生。美国大型公司在2021年年中的利润不会比2019年辉煌时期高出近20%。最理想情况是，营业利润率从去年的高水平降至接近长期平均水平（8%到9%）。因此，利润不会超过130美元。根据“Tully 20”规则，以20倍市盈率计算时，两年后标普合理预测为2,600（20乘以130美元），比当前水平低12%。鉴于经济前景存在巨大不确定性，这一估计有些乐观。
由于存在不确定性，对两年后的利润进行预测从未像当下这么困难。但我们很清楚的一点是，利润预期值为多少才会让标普价格变得合理。尽管现实很残酷，利润骤降、失业率飙升以及出现经济大萧条式的萎缩，但市场已经进入了一个堪称“梦幻世界”的平行世界。（财富中文网）
译者：Biz
美联储向投资者们敲响了警钟：股市涨的过快过猛了，除非美国能够异常快速地实现经济复苏，否则投资者有可能会因为市场泡沫而损失大笔资金。实际上，美联储的态度过于温和，因为无论经济复苏需要多长时间，股市暴涨都会使股价虚高。
美联储于5月15日公布了上半年度《金融稳定报告》，就当前的资产价格形势和未来走势提出了两点警告。首先，投资者寄希望于新冠疫情会很快结束而购买房地产、股票或进行其他投资，这一举动可能会造成坏账损失。央行经济学家指出：“一旦疫情恶化，资产价格将大幅下跌，结果是负面经济影响进一步加剧，或是再次重创金融体系。”
美联储还特别指出，标普500指数自触及3月低点以来已经反弹逾30%所带来的危险。报告指出：“自3月下旬以来，市盈率已涨至疫情爆发之前水平。自触及谷底以来，股价已大幅上涨，分析师对公司收益的预期也因为经济恶化而有所下降。”
但美联储的分析让人们很难看清股票价格到底有多高。问题在于，“市盈率”这一指标（即市盈率倍数）有两个变动部分：即价格和利润。因此，收益预测快速下降，再加上标准普尔指数大涨，让估值在数周内就从多年来从未遇见的低谷上涨至超过2019年年底达到的高位。美联储在这份报告中引用了Refinitiv提供的数据，该公司咨询了买方分析师，并根据其预测提供了大量数据。截至2019年年底，Refinitiv调查预测，标普将公布2020年GAAP每股收益为163美元，“远期”市盈率约为19。
令人惊讶的是，当标普指数在3月下旬触及低点时，一向过于乐观的分析师们表现得甚至比往常还要悲观：他们预计，此后12个月，利润将下跌至160美元。因此，明显过高的利润预期抬高了分母值，正如股价下跌34%正在挤压分子值一样。因此，3月底的市盈率暴跌至14，这在自大萧条以后从未出现过。
之后，两个变动部分都发生了逆转：价格飙升，利润预期暴跌。在Refinitiv发布的最新报告中，分析师预测未来12个月的利润仅为129.5美元，比六周前预期低19%。由于利润预期下滑，再加上价格暴涨，该报告将美联储报告中提到的市盈率从14提升至19，正好与2019年年底一样。
此次反复使美联储感到震惊。但是，央行数据来自4月底的价格。此后，标普指数持续飙升，截至5月18日中午，远期市盈率升至22.8：比去年年底高出20%。
华尔街可能会辩称，超出23个点看起来很离谱，但这并不能说明什么，因为这是全面封锁下的利润预期，而在复苏期，利润会强劲反弹。那么，专业人士认为利润会反弹到什么水平？其估值是否合理？
用“Tully 20”规则可以做出最好的证明。“Tully 20”规则用标普500指数“价格”除以市盈率20（过去50年的平均值）。购买标普股票的人显然预计该指数将自此开始上涨，因此我们假设，到2022年第二季度，两年内价格小幅上涨10%。在此情况下，该指数将达到3,250。要想市盈率达到20，每股收益需要达到163美元（价格3250美元除以市盈率20）。
这比2019年年底公布的创纪录利润高出17%，但这种情况不会发生。美国大型公司在2021年年中的利润不会比2019年辉煌时期高出近20%。最理想情况是，营业利润率从去年的高水平降至接近长期平均水平（8%到9%）。因此，利润不会超过130美元。根据“Tully 20”规则，以20倍市盈率计算时，两年后标普合理预测为2,600（20乘以130美元），比当前水平低12%。鉴于经济前景存在巨大不确定性，这一估计有些乐观。
由于存在不确定性，对两年后的利润进行预测从未像当下这么困难。但我们很清楚的一点是，利润预期值为多少才会让标普价格变得合理。尽管现实很残酷，利润骤降、失业率飙升以及出现经济大萧条式的萎缩，但市场已经进入了一个堪称“梦幻世界”的平行世界。（财富中文网）
译者：Biz
The Fed rang an alarm for investors: Equities just got a lot more expensive, so that unless the U.S. stages a quick, extraordinary, V-for-victory recovery, you risk losing lots of money in these frothy markets. The Fed’s being too mild. The raging run-up makes equities way overpriced regardless of the how long the economy takes to rebound.
In its biannual Financial Stability Report published Friday, May 15, the Federal Reserve provided two notes of caution on where asset prices stand now and where they could be headed. The first holds that buying real estate, equities, or other investments on hopes that the pandemic will be short-lived could prove a bad bet. “Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should the pandemic worsen, the economic fallout prove more severe, or financial system strains reemerge,” wrote the central bank’s economists.
The Fed also specifically addressed the dangers posed by the S&P 500’s more than 30% jump since hitting its March lows. “Prices relative to earnings have risen since late March to levels seen before the outbreak,” stated the report. “Prices have increased a fair bit since the trough, and analysts’ firm-level earnings forecasts have fallen in response to the economic deterioration.”
The Fed’s analysis, however, makes it difficult to decipher just how expensive stocks really are. The problem is that the “prices relative to earnings” metric, or the P/E multiple, has two moving parts––prices and profits––so the combination of fast-dropping earnings forecasts and a booming S&P index has sent valuations careening from depths not seen in many years to beyond the heights scaled in late 2019, all in a matter of weeks. In the report, the Fed references data from Refinitiv, the firm that polls buy-side analysts and provides extensive data based on their forecasts. At the close of 2019, the Refinitiv survey predicted that the S&P would post GAAP reported earnings per share of $163 for 2020, for a “forward” P/E of around 19.
Amazingly, when the S&P hit the lows in late March, the analysts, always overly optimistic, were even farther behind than usual: They expected profits to fall just a shade to $160 12 months hence. As a result, the obviously overwrought profit forecast hoisted the denominator, just as the 34% drop in prices was crushing the numerator. The result: a P/E that cratered in late March to 14, a number not witnessed since the Great Recession.
Then both of the moving parts shifted into reverse: Prices soared, and earnings estimates collapsed. In Refinitiv’s most recent report, analysts project profits over the next 12 months of just $129.5, 19% less than the outlook six weeks earlier. The swoon in earnings estimates and explosion in prices has lifted the the P/E cited in the Fed report from 14 to 19, right where it finished in 2019.
It was that roundtrip that spooked the Fed. But wait. The central bank’s numbers are based on prices at the end of April. Since then, the S&P has kept soaring, lifting the forward P/E, as of midday May 18, to 22.8: 20% higher than the end of last year.
Wall Street would argue that the 23-plus reading that looks so outrageously pricey doesn’t tell us much, because it’s based on earnings getting hammered by the sweeping lockdown, and that profits will strongly rebound in the recovery. So where do the pros think earnings will rebound to, and is that estimate reasonable?
A good test is my “Tully 20” rule. It takes the S&P 500 index, the “price,” and divides by a P/E of 20, a multiple that’s well been the average for the past 50 years. Folks buying S&P stocks obviously expect the index to rise from here, so let’s assume that prices rose just a modest 10% in two years, getting us to the second quarter of 2022. In that case, the index would reach 3,250. At a rich, 20 P/E, reported earnings per share would need to be $163 (the price of 3,250 divided by the P/E of 20).
That’s 17% higher than record earnings posted at the end of 2019—and it just won’t happen. America’s big cap companies will not be almost 20% more profitable in mid-2021 than they were in the glory days of 2019. In a best-case outcome, operating margins shrink from their elevated levels of last year to closer to the long-term average of between 8% and 9%. That would put earnings at no more than $130. By the Tully 20 rule, at a 20 P/E a reasonable forecast for the S&P two years from now would be 2,600 (20 multiplied by $130), 12% below where it is today. And given the extreme uncertainty clouding the economy’s future, that’s optimistic.
Speaking of uncertainty, it’s never been harder to predict where profits will be two years from now than it is today. But we do know approximately where they will need to go in order for the S&P to be reasonably priced. It’s anything but. While the reality on the ground is a grim story of crumbling profits, surging joblessness, and Great Depression–style shrinkage in the economy, the markets have entered a parallel universe that might be called fantasyland.
