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美联储下血本购买垃圾股,惊人之举意义何在?

美联储下血本购买垃圾股,惊人之举意义何在?

Bernhard Warner 2020-04-14
事实证明,担心美联储无计可施完全是杞人忧天。

美国央行于两周前宣布了一项历史性举措:将买入高风险公司债。这也是为受到新冠疫情冲击最严重的企业和市政当局提供的2.3万亿美元援助计划的一部分。消息一出,市场震惊。仅仅两周前,美联储刚为不惜一切代价救市的计划设定了底线,即只考虑购买投资级公司的债务,以增加信贷市场的流动性。

按照新扩充的定期资产担保证券借贷计划,美联储将购买不少养老基金避而远之的东西:投机级公司的债券,也就是垃圾股。

不过“垃圾股”也是有门槛的。美联储解释称,所谓的“堕落天使”要想获得被美联储收购的资格,必须在2020年3月22日前被“至少两家信用机构评为BBB-/Baa3级或以上”。而且,该公司在发行债券时“必须至少达到BB-/Ba3级”。

即便如此,该举依旧引人瞩目。

荷兰银行固定收益策略师沙纳瓦兹·比姆吉表示:“他们的举措是史无前例的。高收益市场果然应声而动。”

消息传出后,专门投资高收益公司债券的汇率基金随即攀升,最近评级被下调的公司的股价也开始上涨。在投资者的推动下,福特汽车公司股价开盘即上涨12.7%。由于面临工厂倒闭和需求萎缩的困境,加之新冠疫情带来的全球封锁,这家汽车制造商及其360亿美元的债务在上个月被穆迪和标普全球下调为垃圾级。

倘若疫情持续到夏季,美国一些负债最严重的公司,而且都是些大公司,就将面临破产。美联储的这项举措被视作迄今为止为避免该状况发生而采取的最强有力的措施。

尽管此举意义重大,但比姆吉认为,美联储的债券购买计划也不会毫无限制地扩展。他指出,央行基本不会在债券到期前转售,因此“很可能会继续选择较为安全、信用评级不低于双B级的高收益债券。”他补充说:“他们购买债券是一种长期行为,不想做任何减记。”

美联储做出此番激进举措之后,所有人都在关注其他国家的央行会做何应对。2008至2009年的金融危机期间,各国央行常彼此协调行动,以便最大限度地减少跨境信贷危机的负面影响。

比姆吉表示:“美联储现在采取了行动,如果欧洲央行出台类似的举措,我不会感到意外。意大利、西班牙等疫情重灾区的经济目前都还没有走出低谷。”(财富中文网)

译者:胡萌琦

美国央行于两周前宣布了一项历史性举措:将买入高风险公司债。这也是为受到新冠疫情冲击最严重的企业和市政当局提供的2.3万亿美元援助计划的一部分。消息一出,市场震惊。仅仅两周前,美联储刚为不惜一切代价救市的计划设定了底线,即只考虑购买投资级公司的债务,以增加信贷市场的流动性。

按照新扩充的定期资产担保证券借贷计划,美联储将购买不少养老基金避而远之的东西:投机级公司的债券,也就是垃圾股。

不过“垃圾股”也是有门槛的。美联储解释称,所谓的“堕落天使”要想获得被美联储收购的资格,必须在2020年3月22日前被“至少两家信用机构评为BBB-/Baa3级或以上”。而且,该公司在发行债券时“必须至少达到BB-/Ba3级”。

即便如此,该举依旧引人瞩目。

荷兰银行固定收益策略师沙纳瓦兹·比姆吉表示:“他们的举措是史无前例的。高收益市场果然应声而动。”

消息传出后,专门投资高收益公司债券的汇率基金随即攀升,最近评级被下调的公司的股价也开始上涨。在投资者的推动下,福特汽车公司股价开盘即上涨12.7%。由于面临工厂倒闭和需求萎缩的困境,加之新冠疫情带来的全球封锁,这家汽车制造商及其360亿美元的债务在上个月被穆迪和标普全球下调为垃圾级。

倘若疫情持续到夏季,美国一些负债最严重的公司,而且都是些大公司,就将面临破产。美联储的这项举措被视作迄今为止为避免该状况发生而采取的最强有力的措施。

尽管此举意义重大,但比姆吉认为,美联储的债券购买计划也不会毫无限制地扩展。他指出,央行基本不会在债券到期前转售,因此“很可能会继续选择较为安全、信用评级不低于双B级的高收益债券。”他补充说:“他们购买债券是一种长期行为,不想做任何减记。”

美联储做出此番激进举措之后,所有人都在关注其他国家的央行会做何应对。2008至2009年的金融危机期间,各国央行常彼此协调行动,以便最大限度地减少跨境信贷危机的负面影响。

比姆吉表示:“美联储现在采取了行动,如果欧洲央行出台类似的举措,我不会感到意外。意大利、西班牙等疫情重灾区的经济目前都还没有走出低谷。”(财富中文网)

译者:胡萌琦

The central bank astounded markets on last Thursday when it announced an historic move to buy risky corporate debt as part of a larger $2.3 trillion rescue package for businesses and municipalities hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic. Just two weeks ago, the Fed drew a line in its whatever-it-takes playbook, saying it would only consider the purchase of investment-grade corporate debt as part of any efforts to pump liquidity into the credit markets.

Under the newly expanded Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) program, the Fed will now buy what many pension funds will not: speculative grade corporate bonds. Junk.

There's a caveat: for a so-called "fallen angel" to qualify, it would have had to be rated "at least BBB-/Baa3 by two or more [credit agencies] as of March 22, 2020," the Fed explains. And, that firm "must be rated at least BB-/Ba3" at the time of issuance.

Still, that's significant.

“They are going into uncharted territory,” says Shanawaz Bhimji, a fixed-income strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV. “The high-yield market is really taking off on this.”

Exchange-rated funds specializing in high-yield corporate debt popped on the news last Thursday, as did the shares of companies that were recently downgraded. Investors sent Ford Motor Company up 12.7% at the open. Moody’s and S&P Global last month downgraded Ford and its $36 billion debt pile into junk territory as the automaker struggles with shuttered factories and cratering demand, fallout from the globe-spanning coronavirus lockdown.

The Fed move is seen as its strongest yet to keep some of America's most highly indebted companies—to be sure, these are big employers—from going insolvent should the coronavirus crisis extend into the summer.

While significant, Bhimji reckons the Fed bond-buying program won't be extended carte blanche. The central bank will almost certainly hold onto the securities until maturity, he notes, and so "will likely stick to the safer rung of high-yield debt, no lower than the double Bs."

"They're in it for the long-term. They don't want to do any write-downs," he added.

After today's aggressive moves by the Fed, all eyes are now on how other central banks will respond. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, central banks around the world acted often in a coordinated fashion to minimize some of negative fallout of the credit crisis that was spilling across borders.

"Now that the Fed is doing this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the ECB do something similar," said Bhimji. "There are hot spots like Italy and Spain that aren’t out of the doldrums yet."

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