四月美股大反弹，只是假象？
“市场先生”是传奇价值投资人本杰明·格雷厄姆创作的一个著名虚拟人物，自然也有着股票市场经常出现的反常、非理性和精神错乱的行为。
格雷厄姆和他的门徒沃伦·巴菲特时常会津津乐道地谈起“市场先生”，比如他的情绪是如何从疯狂迷恋转变成无谓恐惧的，即从抬高股票定价，到最终突然暴跌。他们认为，在热情和暴怒这两种情绪之间，“市场先生”能够表现出良好的判断力。
当然，“市场先生”对于股票的估值，更多体现在他对未来收益的看法。过去七周，在新型冠状病毒的影响下，“市场先生”突然经历了最近一段时间以来最极端的情绪波动，可以看出他对利润预期做出了大幅调整。
自从“市场先生”的前景变得更加乐观以来，他就一直在兜售合理或者更高的基准收益率。但当新冠疫情来临，他还能否接受下行市场中的收益率水平？
只要我们能判断出“市场先生”相去甚远的精神状态中，哪一种状态对于收益率水平而言是最合理的，我们就能确定股票的合理估值。
我们用标普500指数来代表“市场先生”。2月19日，标普指数涨至史上最高点3386点，根据四个季度的往绩利润计算，每股收益为139.47美元。“市场先生”洋洋自得，尽管这种心态没有任何道理。市盈率为24.3倍，比近1/4世纪约20倍的平均市盈率还高出22%。每股收益达到历史最高点，但由于收入在其中所占的超高比例，因此它同时也处于近似泡沫化的水平。
不久后，新冠疫情的爆发使“市场先生”陷入了恐慌。3月23日，标普指数下跌至2237点，跌幅高达33.9%。当时“市场先生”是如何看待利润前景的？他的观点正确吗？
“市场先生”在二月中旬使用的溢价倍数，表明了当时市场正处在一种自我满足的状态。但疫情的爆发动摇了“市场先生”对于未来的信心。为了表达这种焦虑的心情，他采用了更低的市盈率，相当于近几十年来的标准水平，即20倍左右。按照这个市盈率计算，在3月23日的低点，标普500指数的每股收益稳定在111.18美元。
3月23日之后，“市场先生”摆脱了恐惧，变得“情绪高涨”。截至4月9日收盘时，标普指数已经收复了近半失地，暴涨557点至2794点，涨幅25%，成为该指数史上六次最大三周涨幅之一。
“市场先生”对于每股收益的态度，也自然而然地从沮丧突然变得无所不知。当市盈率达到20倍，标普指数在2794点时，每股收益为139.70美元。深呼吸吧“市场先生”，这与今年早些时候标普指数处在历史高点时的每股收益139.47美元相差无几。就连华尔街的幻想家们也不敢这样痴心妄想。
诊断：“市场先生”可能疯了。
市场跌至低谷时的111美元每股收益看起来相当合理，这与经济学家罗伯特·席勒的周期调整后市盈率水平相当。CAPE使用十年平均水平，消除了利润异常波动带来的影响。换言之，CAPE把“市场先生”扮演成了一位性情温和的绅士。
“市场先生”对于市盈率的情绪波动告诉我们，2237点最低点与今天的2794点相比，前者的股票价格才是更公允的估值。路孚特调查时发现，华尔街分析师预测第2季度的每股收益将比去年同期下降19.4%。但今年晚些时候或者2021年，每股收益会出现反弹。对于股市而言，重要的不是它们会如何反弹，而是在反弹开始之后，它们将稳定在什么水平。
每股收益111美元虽然比历史最高点减少了五分之一，却是比较合理的估算。但这个数字也值得警醒。假如标普指数继续将60%的收益用于发放股息和回购，并将另外40%进行再投资用于企业发展，每股收益将在111美元基础上每年增长约5%。这需要四年半时间才能重新达到此前每股140美元的最高点。
在三月末跌入低谷的时候，“市场先生”其实非常理智。只是他自己不知道而已。（财富中文网）
译者：Biz
“市场先生”是传奇价值投资人本杰明·格雷厄姆创作的一个著名虚拟人物，自然也有着股票市场经常出现的反常、非理性和精神错乱的行为。
格雷厄姆和他的门徒沃伦·巴菲特时常会津津乐道地谈起“市场先生”，比如他的情绪是如何从疯狂迷恋转变成无谓恐惧的，即从抬高股票定价，到最终突然暴跌。他们认为，在热情和暴怒这两种情绪之间，“市场先生”能够表现出良好的判断力。
当然，“市场先生”对于股票的估值，更多体现在他对未来收益的看法。过去七周，在新型冠状病毒的影响下，“市场先生”突然经历了最近一段时间以来最极端的情绪波动，可以看出他对利润预期做出了大幅调整。
自从“市场先生”的前景变得更加乐观以来，他就一直在兜售合理或者更高的基准收益率。但当新冠疫情来临，他还能否接受下行市场中的收益率水平？
只要我们能判断出“市场先生”相去甚远的精神状态中，哪一种状态对于收益率水平而言是最合理的，我们就能确定股票的合理估值。
我们用标普500指数来代表“市场先生”。2月19日，标普指数涨至史上最高点3386点，根据四个季度的往绩利润计算，每股收益为139.47美元。“市场先生”洋洋自得，尽管这种心态没有任何道理。市盈率为24.3倍，比近1/4世纪约20倍的平均市盈率还高出22%。每股收益达到历史最高点，但由于收入在其中所占的超高比例，因此它同时也处于近似泡沫化的水平。
不久后，新冠疫情的爆发使“市场先生”陷入了恐慌。3月23日，标普指数下跌至2237点，跌幅高达33.9%。当时“市场先生”是如何看待利润前景的？他的观点正确吗？
“市场先生”在二月中旬使用的溢价倍数，表明了当时市场正处在一种自我满足的状态。但疫情的爆发动摇了“市场先生”对于未来的信心。为了表达这种焦虑的心情，他采用了更低的市盈率，相当于近几十年来的标准水平，即20倍左右。按照这个市盈率计算，在3月23日的低点，标普500指数的每股收益稳定在111.18美元。
3月23日之后，“市场先生”摆脱了恐惧，变得“情绪高涨”。截至4月9日收盘时，标普指数已经收复了近半失地，暴涨557点至2794点，涨幅25%，成为该指数史上六次最大三周涨幅之一。
“市场先生”对于每股收益的态度，也自然而然地从沮丧突然变得无所不知。当市盈率达到20倍，标普指数在2794点时，每股收益为139.70美元。深呼吸吧“市场先生”，这与今年早些时候标普指数处在历史高点时的每股收益139.47美元相差无几。就连华尔街的幻想家们也不敢这样痴心妄想。
诊断：“市场先生”可能疯了。
市场跌至低谷时的111美元每股收益看起来相当合理，这与经济学家罗伯特·席勒的周期调整后市盈率水平相当。CAPE使用十年平均水平，消除了利润异常波动带来的影响。换言之，CAPE把“市场先生”扮演成了一位性情温和的绅士。
“市场先生”对于市盈率的情绪波动告诉我们，2237点最低点与今天的2794点相比，前者的股票价格才是更公允的估值。路孚特调查时发现，华尔街分析师预测第2季度的每股收益将比去年同期下降19.4%。但今年晚些时候或者2021年，每股收益会出现反弹。对于股市而言，重要的不是它们会如何反弹，而是在反弹开始之后，它们将稳定在什么水平。
每股收益111美元虽然比历史最高点减少了五分之一，却是比较合理的估算。但这个数字也值得警醒。假如标普指数继续将60%的收益用于发放股息和回购，并将另外40%进行再投资用于企业发展，每股收益将在111美元基础上每年增长约5%。这需要四年半时间才能重新达到此前每股140美元的最高点。
在三月末跌入低谷的时候，“市场先生”其实非常理智。只是他自己不知道而已。（财富中文网）
译者：Biz
Mister Market is a renowned character created by legendary value investor Benjamin Graham to embody the often erratic, irrational, and unhinged behavior of the overall stock market.
Graham and his disciple, Warren Buffett, relished invoking how Mister Market careens from crazy infatuation that make equities incredibly overpriced to senseless dread that yields bargains to be pounced upon. Between the passions and tantrums, they allowed, Mister Market could show good judgment.
Of course, the way Mister Market values stocks mostly reflects his view of where earnings are headed. Over the past seven weeks, the coronavirus crisis has sent Mister Market lurching through his most extreme mood swings in his recent history, tracing his wildly shifting prognosis for profits.
Is the level of earnings we'll see coming out of the coronavirus downturn the number Mister Market embraced when he was throwing a fit, or the much higher benchmark he's been touting since his outlook suddenly turned sunnier?
Once we judge which of Mister Market's far-apart mindsets make the most sense on earnings, we can establish a reasonable valuation for the stocks.
We'll use the S&P 500 as our proxy for Mister Market. When the S&P hit its all-time high of 3386 on February 19, earnings-per-share, based on four quarters of trailing reported profits, stood at $139.47. Mister Market was jaunty, unreasonably so. The PE ratio was 24.3, 22% higher than the quarter century average of around 20, and earnings were both at historic peak, and near bubble based their super-high share of revenue.
Spooked by the coronavirus outbreak, Mister Market sent the S&P reeling to 2237 on March 23, a rout of 33.9%. At that point, what was Mister Market's outlook on profits, and was he right?
The premium multiple that Mister Market bestowed in mid-February showed serene contentment. The outbreak has made Mister Market less confident about the future. To express that new anxiety, he's applying a lower PE, the norm over recent decades of roughly 20. In that case, at the lows on March 23, Mister Market saw S&P 500 profits stabilizing at $111.18.
After the March 23 bottom, Mister Market shook off his funk, and turned positively euphoric. By the close on April 9, the S&P had recouped half its losses, surging 557 points to 2794, a gain of 25% that ranks as one of the half-dozen largest three-week jumps in history.
Naturally, Mister Market suddenly had turned from despondent to feeling his beans about profits. At our PE of 20, the S&P at 2794 would be earnings $139.70 a share. Take a breath, Mister Market! That's almost identical to the $139.47 stocks garnered at their heights early this year. That's a fantasy that even the Wall Street fantasists aren't selling.
Conclusion: Mister Market may be off his meds.
The $111 number when the market hit the lows looks pretty reasonable. It's similar to the level for economist Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, or CAPE, that smooths the erratic swings in profits by using a ten-year average––in other words, casting Mister Market as an even-tempered gentleman.
Mister Market's swings from low to high spirits on earnings tells us that stock prices were more fairly valued at the depths of 2237 than today's 2794. In a poll conducted by Refinitiv, Wall Street analysts forecast a 19.4% drop in Q2 profits versus the same quarter last year. But profits will bounce back, whether the rebound begins in late this year or 2021. What's important for stocks isn't how they jump around, but where they settle when the comeback begins.
Starting at $111, one-fifth off the old highs, is a pretty good estimate. But it's a sobering number. Assuming that the S&P continues to distribute 60% of its profits in dividends and buybacks, and reinvest 40% to grow the business, EPS would rise around 5% a year from that base of $111. From there, it would take four-and-a-half years to rescale the the old pinnacle of $140 per share.
At the point where he plumbed the deep valley in late March, Mister Market was looking sensible. He just didn't know it.
