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股市何时触底反弹?高盛:还需满足三个条件

股市何时触底反弹?高盛:还需满足三个条件

Anne Sraders 2020年04月01日
投资者都希望股市尽快反转,但高盛表示为时尚早。

上周,股市投资者经历了一次罕见的止跌回升,他们甚至希望熊市已经结束,但高盛警告称,现在就说最糟糕的时刻已经过去还为时尚早。

上周二到周四,美股反弹,标普500指数上涨了近18%。但高盛指出,对于这次反弹不必过于激动:策略分析师上周五发布的一份研究报告称,2008年9月至12月,标普500指数经历了六次持续1至6个交易日的反弹,涨幅达到9%以上,“有个别反弹的幅度更是高达19%”。但股市直到2009年3月才见底。

事实上,虽然上周股市出现了反弹,但高盛认为:“从策略面来看,我们认为未来几周市场很可能会继续走低。”

美国财务研究分析中心的山姆•斯托瓦尔也表示认同。他在周一发布的一篇报告中写道:“历史事实告诉投资者,股市最近的低点或将‘再次接受考验’。虽然目前股市已经跌至熊市的低点,但市场将持续存在较高的波动性。”

对冲基金Great Hill Capital的董事长兼主理合伙人托马斯•海耶斯等人却认为,预测股市底部是“不可能完成的任务”。而且海耶斯告诉《财富》杂志:“由于现在无法预估企业在2020年的盈利情况,因此实际上没有基本面数据可以参考,所以预测股市底部的难度更大。”

当所有人都在猜测股市何时触底的时候,高盛认为,市场真正触底之前需要满足三个条件。

新型冠状病毒传播速度减慢

华尔街所有人最关注的依旧是新冠肺炎新增确诊病例人数。虽然中国、韩国和意大利的疫情趋势有所放缓,给投资者带来了希望(海耶斯称,如果美国的感染人数增长曲线与中国或新加坡的曲线类似,“市场可能已经考虑到了未来几个月在经济方面可能出现的大部分后果。”),但高盛认为不确定性的存在,使市场依旧不太可能出现估值扩张。

财政和货币刺激政策确实有效的证据

美联储和美国政府推出2.2万亿美元刺激计划,大手笔的政策使投资者有理由感到乐观,但高盛警告:“这些措施限制违约、倒闭和裁员,但能多大程度上能够取得成功,需要让时间来证明。”

投资者仓位和情绪见底

最后,高盛将投资者的仓位和情绪,作为预测未来市场是否会继续下行的信号(确认“卖盘压力是否会使股市缓慢触底”)。高盛的美国股市情绪指标结合了九项股市仓位指标。该指标仅跌到了-1.4标准差,而在本轮周期最近的其他修正中,标准差都在-2至-3之间。高盛的报告称,上周,“该指标升到-0.7,这意味着未来还将迎来更多抛售。”

但请记住……

当有人正在预测未来市场走向的时候,海耶斯和摩根士丹利等却更加乐观地认为,市场已经触底。

摩根士丹利通过研究企业的盈利情况发现,花旗全球盈利修正指数跌至20年最低水平。周一,策略分析师在一份摩根士丹利财富管理全球投资委员会报告中写道,这“很重要,因为这代表市场已经考虑到了各种坏消息,比如上周有328万人申请失业补助,但这并没有影响到市场信心。在曝出这则消息的当天,股市反而有所上涨。”

股市没有受到坏消息影响这一点,也引起了Great Hill公司的海耶斯的关注。他认为:“坏消息会越来越多,但当市场开始表现出对坏消息的抵抗力时,你就可以认为拐点已经来临。这意味着市场可能已经将最糟糕的情况考虑在内。”(财富中文网)

译者:Biz

上周,股市投资者经历了一次罕见的止跌回升,他们甚至希望熊市已经结束,但高盛警告称,现在就说最糟糕的时刻已经过去还为时尚早。

上周二到周四,美股反弹,标普500指数上涨了近18%。但高盛指出,对于这次反弹不必过于激动:策略分析师上周五发布的一份研究报告称,2008年9月至12月,标普500指数经历了六次持续1至6个交易日的反弹,涨幅达到9%以上,“有个别反弹的幅度更是高达19%”。但股市直到2009年3月才见底。

事实上,虽然上周股市出现了反弹,但高盛认为:“从策略面来看,我们认为未来几周市场很可能会继续走低。”

美国财务研究分析中心的山姆•斯托瓦尔也表示认同。他在周一发布的一篇报告中写道:“历史事实告诉投资者,股市最近的低点或将‘再次接受考验’。虽然目前股市已经跌至熊市的低点,但市场将持续存在较高的波动性。”

对冲基金Great Hill Capital的董事长兼主理合伙人托马斯•海耶斯等人却认为,预测股市底部是“不可能完成的任务”。而且海耶斯告诉《财富》杂志:“由于现在无法预估企业在2020年的盈利情况,因此实际上没有基本面数据可以参考,所以预测股市底部的难度更大。”

当所有人都在猜测股市何时触底的时候,高盛认为,市场真正触底之前需要满足三个条件。

新型冠状病毒传播速度减慢

华尔街所有人最关注的依旧是新冠肺炎新增确诊病例人数。虽然中国、韩国和意大利的疫情趋势有所放缓,给投资者带来了希望(海耶斯称,如果美国的感染人数增长曲线与中国或新加坡的曲线类似,“市场可能已经考虑到了未来几个月在经济方面可能出现的大部分后果。”),但高盛认为不确定性的存在,使市场依旧不太可能出现估值扩张。

财政和货币刺激政策确实有效的证据

美联储和美国政府推出2.2万亿美元刺激计划,大手笔的政策使投资者有理由感到乐观,但高盛警告:“这些措施限制违约、倒闭和裁员,但能多大程度上能够取得成功,需要让时间来证明。”

投资者仓位和情绪见底

最后,高盛将投资者的仓位和情绪,作为预测未来市场是否会继续下行的信号(确认“卖盘压力是否会使股市缓慢触底”)。高盛的美国股市情绪指标结合了九项股市仓位指标。该指标仅跌到了-1.4标准差,而在本轮周期最近的其他修正中,标准差都在-2至-3之间。高盛的报告称,上周,“该指标升到-0.7,这意味着未来还将迎来更多抛售。”

但请记住……

当有人正在预测未来市场走向的时候,海耶斯和摩根士丹利等却更加乐观地认为,市场已经触底。

摩根士丹利通过研究企业的盈利情况发现,花旗全球盈利修正指数跌至20年最低水平。周一,策略分析师在一份摩根士丹利财富管理全球投资委员会报告中写道,这“很重要,因为这代表市场已经考虑到了各种坏消息,比如上周有328万人申请失业补助,但这并没有影响到市场信心。在曝出这则消息的当天,股市反而有所上涨。”

股市没有受到坏消息影响这一点,也引起了Great Hill公司的海耶斯的关注。他认为:“坏消息会越来越多,但当市场开始表现出对坏消息的抵抗力时,你就可以认为拐点已经来临。这意味着市场可能已经将最糟糕的情况考虑在内。”(财富中文网)

译者:Biz

Investors got a rare rally—and even hopes that the bear market may have been vanquished—last week, but Goldman Sachs warns it's still too early to declare the worst is behind us.

Last week, markets rallied from Tuesday through Thursday, lifting the S&P 500 nearly 18% in the period. But Goldman notes that isn't anything to get too excited about: from September through December of 2008, the S&P 500 saw six different 1-6 trading day bounces of 9% or more, "with some rallies as large as 19%," strategists wrote in a research note on Friday. Yet, the market didn't bottom until March 2009.

In fact, despite last week's pop, the firm is declaring that, "Tactically, we believe it is likely that the market will turn lower in coming weeks."

That estimation makes sense for CFRA's Sam Stovall, too. He wrote in a note on Monday that, "History advises investors to expect a 'retest' of the recent low," he notes. "Even if the low for this bear market is already in place, the elevated volatility is expected to persist."

For those like Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing partner of Great Hill Capital, calling the bottom is "mission impossible." Plus, it's "doubly hard when there’s literally no fundamental data you can reply upon because there's no way to tell what earnings are going to be in 2020," Hayes tells Fortune.

But while the actual bottom is anyone's guess, now, Goldman says three things will still need to happen before the market will truly trough.

A slowing of coronavirus spread

Top of mind for everyone on the Street remains the new coronavirus case count. While trends of slowing cases in China, South Korea, and Italy have given investors cause to be hopeful (Hayes notes that if the U.S. curve is like the China or Singapore case curve, "the market has likely already discounted most of the pain that’s going to be coming in coming months economically speaking."), Goldman maintains the uncertainty is going to continue making further multiple expansion unlikely.

Evidence that fiscal and monetary stimulus is actually working

An ample policy response from both the Fed and the government (with a $2.2 trillion stimulus package) is certainly reason to be optimistic, but Goldman still warns that "only time will tell to what extent the actions succeed in limiting defaults, closures, and layoffs."

A bottoming in investor positioning and flows

Finally, the firm is looking to investor positioning and flows to signal if there is further downside ahead (checking to see if "selling pressure will slow and help stocks to bottom"). Goldman's U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator, which compiles nine measures of equity positioning, had only declined to -1.4 standard deviations, versus -2 to -3 standard deviation readings at the bottoms of other corrections this cycle. Last week, "the metric rose to -0.7, suggesting more selling lies ahead," according to Goldman's report.

But keep in mind...

Yet some are looking elsewhere to gauge where markets are likely headed, and those like Hayes and Morgan Stanley are a bit more optimistic they could have bottomed already.

Morgan Stanley is taking note of the situation on the corporate earnings side. Citi Global Earnings Revisions Index recorded its worst reading in 20 years, the firm noted, which "is important, as it suggests the bad news is priced into markets, exemplified by the fact that [last] week’s [3.28 million] unemployment claims made no dent in market confidence. Stocks rose on the day of that report," strategists wrote in a Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee note on Monday.

That latter point of stocks being unperturbed by the bad news is precisely what Great Hill's Hayes is watching: "The news will continue to be worse, but as the market starts to show strength on bad news, that’s when you can start to consider that we’re at a turning point," Hayes contends. "That means the market has probably discounted a lot of the worst case already."

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