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预期太乐观,而现实太冷峻:美国商店开门恐怕遥遥无期

预期太乐观,而现实太冷峻:美国商店开门恐怕遥遥无期

王波非(Phil Wahba) 2020年03月31日
事实证明,疫情之初的预期过于乐观了。

一周前,当全美各大型零售商纷纷因新冠疫情蔓延而宣布暂停营业时,不少人以为只需两周便可恢复正常。

事实证明,这种预期过于乐观了。

蔻驰(Coach)、Abercrombie & Fitch和Men’s Wearhouse等连锁店延长了店铺关闭时间,因为无论是美国还是西欧,距离恢复正常显然还有待时日。

原本预计的3月27日恢复营业已然无望,蔻驰的母公司Tapestry(其旗下还有Kate Spade)现在寄希望于4月10日;Men’s Wearhouse则预计近期不会有男性西装的需求,把重新开张的日期定在了5月4日。它的母公司Tailored Brands(旗下另有Jos A. Bank)已经对所有门店员工给予强制休假,直至恢复营业。Nordstrom在原计划基础上再推迟一周,打算4月5日重开。至于Abercrombie,和Apple一样,原本设定了一个具体日期,而现在只说门店将继续关闭,等待进一步通知。

关闭门店使得零售业陷入了有史以来最大的危机。研究公司GlobalData Retail近来一直在关注事态的发展,他们估计,截至上周四上午,全美40.9%的营业空间已经处于关闭状态。该公司预测,本月全美零售额将下降12.4%,4月将下降11.6%,五月将下降6.1%,届时,危机应开始缓解。

有观点认为,零售业有望在复活节前复苏,特朗普总统也表示希望能在届时“重启”经济。然而,鉴于不少州和城市已采取封闭措施来减缓病毒的传播,且预计拐点不会在未来几周内出现,即便4月12日的期待似乎也不太现实。

华尔街人士似乎也认为停业状况不会很快结束。Jefferies的分析师们在一份题为《关门末日》的研究报告中说,“商店关闭的时间可能会比我们想象的长”。此外,该公司还警告称,电子商务远远无法弥补这一缺口。毕竟,数字销售的利润低得多,尤其是货运订单,顾客选择网上购物大大降低了成本。

很明显,即便是那些目前仍在营业且运转良好的零售商也开始越来越担忧。得益于消费者囤积物品,塔吉特从3月至今业绩喜人,但该公司仍以经济不确定性为由,在上周撤回了2020年的财务预测。

那些经营非必需品的商家则面临着更大的挑战。之前,Abercrombie、Tapestry和Nordstrom也加入了申请信贷、获取现金的行列,目前他们仍能勉力维持,但收益均大幅下降。百思买、Ulta Beauty和Kohl等连锁店也已在近期采取措施增加现金来源。

此外,还有更多的艰难抉择正在酝酿之中:梅西百货(Macy’s)、Gap Inc.、安德玛、J.C. Penney以及不少大型商场原本都计划这周开始营业,但他们很有可能不得不重新考虑。(财富中文网)

译者:胡萌琦

一周前,当全美各大型零售商纷纷因新冠疫情蔓延而宣布暂停营业时,不少人以为只需两周便可恢复正常。

事实证明,这种预期过于乐观了。

蔻驰(Coach)、Abercrombie & Fitch和Men’s Wearhouse等连锁店延长了店铺关闭时间,因为无论是美国还是西欧,距离恢复正常显然还有待时日。

原本预计的3月27日恢复营业已然无望,蔻驰的母公司Tapestry(其旗下还有Kate Spade)现在寄希望于4月10日;Men’s Wearhouse则预计近期不会有男性西装的需求,把重新开张的日期定在了5月4日。它的母公司Tailored Brands(旗下另有Jos A. Bank)已经对所有门店员工给予强制休假,直至恢复营业。Nordstrom在原计划基础上再推迟一周,打算4月5日重开。至于Abercrombie,和Apple一样,原本设定了一个具体日期,而现在只说门店将继续关闭,等待进一步通知。

关闭门店使得零售业陷入了有史以来最大的危机。研究公司GlobalData Retail近来一直在关注事态的发展,他们估计,截至上周四上午,全美40.9%的营业空间已经处于关闭状态。该公司预测,本月全美零售额将下降12.4%,4月将下降11.6%,五月将下降6.1%,届时,危机应开始缓解。

有观点认为,零售业有望在复活节前复苏,特朗普总统也表示希望能在届时“重启”经济。然而,鉴于不少州和城市已采取封闭措施来减缓病毒的传播,且预计拐点不会在未来几周内出现,即便4月12日的期待似乎也不太现实。

华尔街人士似乎也认为停业状况不会很快结束。Jefferies的分析师们在一份题为《关门末日》的研究报告中说,“商店关闭的时间可能会比我们想象的长”。此外,该公司还警告称,电子商务远远无法弥补这一缺口。毕竟,数字销售的利润低得多,尤其是货运订单,顾客选择网上购物大大降低了成本。

很明显,即便是那些目前仍在营业且运转良好的零售商也开始越来越担忧。得益于消费者囤积物品,塔吉特从3月至今业绩喜人,但该公司仍以经济不确定性为由,在上周撤回了2020年的财务预测。

那些经营非必需品的商家则面临着更大的挑战。之前,Abercrombie、Tapestry和Nordstrom也加入了申请信贷、获取现金的行列,目前他们仍能勉力维持,但收益均大幅下降。百思买、Ulta Beauty和Kohl等连锁店也已在近期采取措施增加现金来源。

此外,还有更多的艰难抉择正在酝酿之中:梅西百货(Macy’s)、Gap Inc.、安德玛、J.C. Penney以及不少大型商场原本都计划这周开始营业,但他们很有可能不得不重新考虑。(财富中文网)

译者:胡萌琦

When large national retailers started announcing temporary store closingsearly last week because of the coronavirus spreading, many seemed to think two weeks would do the trick.

That expectation is proving to have been wildly optimistic.

Coach, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Men’s Wearhouse are among the chains on Thursday to extend store closings as it’s becoming clear a return to normal is still a way off in the United States and Western Europe.

Coach parent Tapestry, which also owns Kate Spade, now hopes to reopen stores April 10 instead of March 27, while Men’s Wearhouse, anticipating that few men will be needing to buy a new suit anytime soon, has set May 4 as a return day. Its parent company, Tailored Brands, which also owns Jos. A. Bank, has furloughed all store staff until then. Nordstrom now plans to reopen a week later than planned, on April 5. As for Abercrombie, like Apple, it had initially set a specific date but now says only that its stores are closed until further notice.

The closings are plunging the retail sector into one of its biggest crises ever. Research firm GlobalData Retail has been tracking the closings and by Thursday morning estimated that 40.9% of retail square footage in the U.S. is currently closed. The firm now expects retail sales to be down 12.4% this month, 11.6% in April, and 6.1% in May, when the crisis should start easing.

Some of the hoped-for return-to-business dates come before Easter, the date by which President Trump has said he wants to “reopen” the economy. With many states and cities shutting down to slow the virus’s spread and its peak not expected for weeks, even April 12 seems unrealistic.

Wall Street also seems to think the closures won’t end any time soon. In a research note titled “Closeageddon,” Jefferies analysts warned that “stores could be closed longer than we think.” What’s more, the firm warned, e-commerce won't come near making up the shortfall. And digital sales are much less profitable anyway, especially shipped orders; the option to have a shopper pick up an online order at a store cuts costs enormously.

It’s clear that retailers, even those open for business and doing well in this environment, are growing anxious. Despite stellar results in March so far, thanks to stock-up trips, Target this week withdrew its financial forecasts for 2020, citing economic uncertainty.

Others that sell nonessential items are more challenged. Abercrombie, Tapestry, and Nordstrom were the latest to tap credit lines this week to have access to cash at a time they are still incurring costs but dealing with a drastic drop in revenue. Best Buy, Ulta Beauty, and Kohl’s are among the many other chains to have taken steps to shore up their access to cash in the past week.

More tough decisions are coming: Macy’s, Gap Inc., Under Armour, and J.C. Penney, as well as major mall developers are among the many companies to have planned to reopen in the next week but will most likely have to reconsider those dates.

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