诺贝尔奖得主席勒：美国不会再次出现大衰退
在新冠疫情大流行期间，美国企业的CEO、消费者以及投资人都深受一个问题的困扰，即：这次是否会重演始于2008年长期、近乎萧条的经济景象？还是会像1987年那样，在股市暴跌之后经历相对短期的恐慌？可能没有什么人比诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒更适合回答这个问题了。
于是，《财富》杂志前往席勒位于纽黑文的家中，拜访这位耶鲁大学的教授。此时他已在家中待了一段时间，只是每隔几天购买日用品时才会冒险外出一次。他对新冠疫情冲击有着自己独特的见解，他指出，现在有许多“故事”占据着我们感性世界，其影响力与基于经济数据做出的预测一样强大。
以下为其观点节选。
股市抛售是全球现象，也是一个信号
他指出，全球股市都在暴跌，所以其诱因不是美国经济出了2000年代中期房地产泡沫那样的大问题。 “全球一片哀鸿，估值过高的美股在暴跌，其它一些市场，虽然估值不高，但也在暴跌”。
席勒表示，虽然现在经济基本面出了问题，但是股市下跌的幅度仍然远超经济恶化的实际情况。他说：“从有效市场的角度看，出现这种状况出乎我的意料。就现在看到的情况来说，股市不应出现如此巨大的跌幅”。现在出现的抛售更像是对危机严重程度的过度反应。席勒说：“人们觉得新冠病毒可能毁掉整个市场，空荡荡的超市货架也加剧了人们的恐慌”。亲眼目睹这些惨淡景象让人们对未来经济充满悲观情绪，进而打击了他们对股票市场的信心。”
本次危机很可能不是大衰退2.0版
席勒承认，自2月中旬以来，股票市场迅速蒸发了30%的市值，无论从速度还是规模来看，这都更像是另一场大萧条或大衰退，而不是很快就会过去的冲击。但据他观察，“本次危机似乎不会重复1929年或2008年的局面。这次是病毒波及到了股票市场，情况与之前并不一样。”席勒指出，与导致大萧条的信用危机相比，当前的情况更像是1919年西班牙大流感。
CAPE指标过高并非本次股市大跌的原因
当利润处于不可持续的高位时，估值看起来会偏低，当收益处于低点时，估值会显得偏高，而席勒提出的周期调整市盈率，即CAPE，则可以通过抚平收益峰、谷数值对报告市盈率进行调整，所以使用这种方法可以更准确的反映股价是偏高还是偏低。今年2月中旬，当股市处于历史最高点时，CAPE指标刚刚超过1929年和2000年两次股市大崩盘前夕的水平。
席勒表示，CAPE高位运行“确实更容易导致市场出现抛售情况”。但令人颇为意外的是，他断言并非对股市崩盘的恐惧导致了本次大跌。他表示：“如果美股下跌幅度与那些CAPE值并不高的市场的下跌幅度差不多，那就说明美股市盈率过高并非导致本次股市暴跌的原因。真正的原因在于全球疫情蔓延”。他让我去看巴克莱计算的26国CAPE数据。正如席勒估计的那样，巴克莱的数据显示，全球最贵的主要股票市场——美股CAPE数值已从2月的峰值31降到了26。但原始CAPE数值远低于美国的日本（22）、德国（20）和英国（18），其股市也都遭受了相似程度的暴跌。
新冠危机或将反转特朗普式“剧情”
席勒表示，特朗普总统治下的美国给自己贴上了所谓“凯旋叙事”的标签。他指出：“特朗普让美国认同并接受了自己资本主义国家的身份。股市也因此屡创新高”。但在席勒看来，股票市场的暴跌已经重写了这个英雄叙事的剧情：“2008年是房地产出问题，当时人们因为各种不当操作饱受批评，现在则是股市出了问题。故事不太一样，但在这个故事里特朗普也扮演了自己的角色。由于他在应对新冠疫情时不愿听取科学家的建议，因而引发了各界对其广泛的批评”。
席勒称自己对特朗普现象感到迷惑。他表示：“我不知道他是怎么想的。如果没有新冠病毒（他的政策）可能还能正常运转。看起来他是希望问题能够自己消失”。作为熟稔经济学原理的学者，席勒认为，在产生怀疑之前，美国人原本对未来充满信心。未来最大的悬念在于他们的疑虑会扩大到什么程度，以及需要多久时间才能让他们恢复信心。（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
在新冠疫情大流行期间，美国企业的CEO、消费者以及投资人都深受一个问题的困扰，即：这次是否会重演始于2008年长期、近乎萧条的经济景象？还是会像1987年那样，在股市暴跌之后经历相对短期的恐慌？可能没有什么人比诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒更适合回答这个问题了。
于是，《财富》杂志前往席勒位于纽黑文的家中，拜访这位耶鲁大学的教授。此时他已在家中待了一段时间，只是每隔几天购买日用品时才会冒险外出一次。他对新冠疫情冲击有着自己独特的见解，他指出，现在有许多“故事”占据着我们感性世界，其影响力与基于经济数据做出的预测一样强大。
以下为其观点节选。
股市抛售是全球现象，也是一个信号
他指出，全球股市都在暴跌，所以其诱因不是美国经济出了2000年代中期房地产泡沫那样的大问题。 “全球一片哀鸿，估值过高的美股在暴跌，其它一些市场，虽然估值不高，但也在暴跌”。
席勒表示，虽然现在经济基本面出了问题，但是股市下跌的幅度仍然远超经济恶化的实际情况。他说：“从有效市场的角度看，出现这种状况出乎我的意料。就现在看到的情况来说，股市不应出现如此巨大的跌幅”。现在出现的抛售更像是对危机严重程度的过度反应。席勒说：“人们觉得新冠病毒可能毁掉整个市场，空荡荡的超市货架也加剧了人们的恐慌”。亲眼目睹这些惨淡景象让人们对未来经济充满悲观情绪，进而打击了他们对股票市场的信心。”
本次危机很可能不是大衰退2.0版
席勒承认，自2月中旬以来，股票市场迅速蒸发了30%的市值，无论从速度还是规模来看，这都更像是另一场大萧条或大衰退，而不是很快就会过去的冲击。但据他观察，“本次危机似乎不会重复1929年或2008年的局面。这次是病毒波及到了股票市场，情况与之前并不一样。”席勒指出，与导致大萧条的信用危机相比，当前的情况更像是1919年西班牙大流感。
CAPE指标过高并非本次股市大跌的原因
当利润处于不可持续的高位时，估值看起来会偏低，当收益处于低点时，估值会显得偏高，而席勒提出的周期调整市盈率，即CAPE，则可以通过抚平收益峰、谷数值对报告市盈率进行调整，所以使用这种方法可以更准确的反映股价是偏高还是偏低。今年2月中旬，当股市处于历史最高点时，CAPE指标刚刚超过1929年和2000年两次股市大崩盘前夕的水平。
席勒表示，CAPE高位运行“确实更容易导致市场出现抛售情况”。但令人颇为意外的是，他断言并非对股市崩盘的恐惧导致了本次大跌。他表示：“如果美股下跌幅度与那些CAPE值并不高的市场的下跌幅度差不多，那就说明美股市盈率过高并非导致本次股市暴跌的原因。真正的原因在于全球疫情蔓延”。他让我去看巴克莱计算的26国CAPE数据。正如席勒估计的那样，巴克莱的数据显示，全球最贵的主要股票市场——美股CAPE数值已从2月的峰值31降到了26。但原始CAPE数值远低于美国的日本（22）、德国（20）和英国（18），其股市也都遭受了相似程度的暴跌。
新冠危机或将反转特朗普式“剧情”
席勒表示，特朗普总统治下的美国给自己贴上了所谓“凯旋叙事”的标签。他指出：“特朗普让美国认同并接受了自己资本主义国家的身份。股市也因此屡创新高”。但在席勒看来，股票市场的暴跌已经重写了这个英雄叙事的剧情：“2008年是房地产出问题，当时人们因为各种不当操作饱受批评，现在则是股市出了问题。故事不太一样，但在这个故事里特朗普也扮演了自己的角色。由于他在应对新冠疫情时不愿听取科学家的建议，因而引发了各界对其广泛的批评”。
席勒称自己对特朗普现象感到迷惑。他表示：“我不知道他是怎么想的。如果没有新冠病毒（他的政策）可能还能正常运转。看起来他是希望问题能够自己消失”。作为熟稔经济学原理的学者，席勒认为，在产生怀疑之前，美国人原本对未来充满信心。未来最大的悬念在于他们的疑虑会扩大到什么程度，以及需要多久时间才能让他们恢复信心。（财富中文网）
译者：梁宇
审校：夏林
It's hard to think of a more qualified expert than Nobel laureate Robert Shiller to address the question baffling America's CEOs, consumers, and investors amid the coronavirus pandemic: Is 2020 a repeat of the long-running, near depression starting in 2008, or a relatively short-lived panic recalling the sharp selloff in 1987?
I reached Shiller, a Yale professor, at his home in New Haven, where he's hunkered down for the duration, venturing out mainly to stock up every few days for routine shopping. As usual, Shiller's views on the coronavirus crash were highly original, and he noted that "narratives" that capture our emotions are just as powerful as forecasts based on economic data, including the famed CAPE ratio, that he displays on his home page.
Here's a sampling of Shiller's observations.
The coronavirus selloff is worldwide, and that's a signal
The gigantic drop in stock prices, he points out, is a global phenomenon. Hence, its cause probably isn't big weaknesses specific to the U.S. economy, such as the mid-2000s housing bubble. “It's happening everywhere,” he notes. “It's happening in markets that were expensive like the U.S., and ones that are inexpensive.”
He says that drop is far bigger than is probably justified by the economic fundamentals, even though they're deteriorating. "I haven't been prepared for this from the standpoint of efficient markets," he says. "Based on what we're seeing so far, the stock market shouldn't go down this much," he says. More likely, the depth of the selloff is an overreaction to the severity of the crisis. "People are getting the idea that this virus will get the market to crash," he says. "People go to the supermarket and see the empty shelves, and they panic." Those signs of desperation from daily life darken their view of the economy's future and undermine their confidence in the stock market.
This probably isn’t the Great Recession 2.0
Shiller acknowledges that the rapidity and scale of the stock market's 30% retreat since mid-February point more to another Great Depression or Great Recession than a shock triggered by a passing crisis. "This doesn't seem to be another 1929 or 2008," he observed. "The story isn't the same. This time the bad news comes from something outside the economy. This time it's a virus story that turned into a stock market story." He notes that the current crisis resembles the Spanish flu epidemic of 1919 far more than the vanishing credit that caused the Great Depression.
The selloff isn’t a vindication of the CAPE
Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE, adjusts the reported P/E by smoothing peaks and valleys in earnings. Its methodology can give a more accurate snapshot of whether prices are rich or slim, since valuations can appear low when profits are unsustainably high, and inflated when earnings are poised to rebound. At the market's all-time high in mid-February, the CAPE stood at a level only exceeded prior to the meltdowns in 1929 and 2000.
Shiller says that the high CAPE "did make the markets more vulnerable to a selloff." But surprisingly, he asserts that sudden fear of gravity-defying prices didn't cause the drop. "If prices fell by roughly the same degree in other markets where the CAPE isn't high, then it wasn't the high prices relative to earnings in the U.S. that trigger the fall," he says. "It was the worldwide epidemic." He instructed me to look at the Barclays data that calculates the CAPE for 26 countries. Shiller's assessment was correct. According to Barclays, the CAPE in the U.S., the world's most expensive major market, has dropped from the February peak of 31 to 26. But Japan at 22, Germany at 20, and the U.K. at 18, all started with CAPEs much lower than the U.S., and all suffered comparable drops in equities.
The coronavirus crisis could be a reversal of the Trump narrative
America, says Shiller, has had what he labels a "triumphant narrative" under President Trump. "Trump got the U.S. thinking it's a capitalist country, and isn't ashamed of it," notes Shiller. "So the stock market sets records." But for Shiller, the stunning retreat has rewritten the heroic plot line: "In 2008, it was a housing story, not a stock market story like today, and people were getting accused of all kinds of bad behavior. This narrative is something different, but it's also a Trump narrative. He's getting his own vicious attacks, this time for not believing the scientists about coronavirus. That narrative is very big now."
Shiller professes to be mystified by the Trump phenomenon. "I don't know what drives his thinking," Shiller allows. "It might have worked without the coronavirus. It looked like he was trying to wish it away." For Shiller, a student of great economic narratives, Americans believed in the scenario of good times ahead until they didn't believe. The great unknown in the tale to come is how deep their doubt will grow, and the time it will take them to believe again.
