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疫情中零售商截然不同的境遇:一面疯狂抢购,一面门庭冷落

疫情中零售商截然不同的境遇:一面疯狂抢购,一面门庭冷落

王波非(Phil Wahba) 2020年03月23日
零售业中,只有极少数的企业因这场疫情而获益。

在刚刚过去的这个周末,美国零售业出现了截然相反的两种现象——沃尔玛、好市多和塔吉特百货等大型商超的门口排起了长龙,因为老百姓都想在家中囤积食品和必需的生活用品。塔吉特百货的CEO布莱恩·康奈尔也在本周一表示,消费者在该公司的门店内“购物持续激增”的现象仍然在持续。

但很多其他零售商,比如已经关闭门店的Abercrombie & Fitch、耐克、R.E.I.和安德玛等,都表示关闭时间还会延长。Gap Inc等部分零售商也宣布将缩短营业时间。上周一,美国科尔士百货和诺德斯特龙也表示将缩短门店的营业时间。为什么会有这种差别?答案很明显,生活必需品对于消费者来说是刚需,不买也得买;而衣服、家居等则并非刚需,就算不买新的,也能用旧的先凑合着。

GlobalData Retail公司的总经理尼尔·桑德斯对《财富》表示:“这是人们第一个削减开支的领域。很多消费者将个人可支配收入用在了囤积生活必需品上。”这种场面俨然是2009年金融危机时期的翻版,当时除了生活必需品,人们的所有其他支出都大幅下降,梅西百货、J.C. Penney以及Gap等商场和连锁服装店都遭到了严重打击,销售额下滑几乎达到百分之十几。

研究公司Customer Growth Partners上个月曾经预测道,今年美国的零售业销售额将增长4.1%。现在该公司认为,如果疫情持续到初夏,那么该增长率可能将只有1%左右。

对百货公司和服装连锁店来说,如果各州、县、市政府下令关闭商场,情况就会更加雪上加霜。因为百货公司和服装连锁店一般都是在商场里经营的。上周,西蒙房地产集团在费城郊外的普鲁士国王商场对商户表示,县政府希望一些不销售生活必需品的零售机构暂时关闭。本周一,西蒙房地产集团宣布了一笔巨额的融资计划。而大型商场运营商Macerich公司也因为“不确定且迅速变化的环境”削减了分红。这很有可能是那些困难的商户要求在疫情期间减免租金造成的。

塔吉特百货、沃尔玛和克罗格都可能抢走这些百货公司的一部分市场份额,因为他们的生活必需品种类很广,库存也较为充足。

福雷斯特公司研究员苏查里塔·柯达里表示:“这就是塔吉特百货和沃尔玛的优势,他们有药店,也有食杂店。”新增的消费人流同样也会促进他们其他类别的产品销售,比如衣服和家庭用品等。“他们也不会在电子产品或者服装区域周围放一个隔离带,所以他们还是能获得一些额外的业务的。”上周,达乐公司曾表示,当前的不确定性很可能会提高它的销售额,因为在疫情期间,人们肯定会选择在离家较近的地方消费。

过去两年间,无论是沃尔玛还是克罗格,特别是塔吉特百货,都在大力加强衣服和家居产品。也就是说,他们应该会继续从百货商场手里抢份额。在刚刚过去的假日季,塔吉特百货的服装销量涨势强劲,而梅西百货和科尔士百货的销量与上一个圣诞季基本保持了同一水平。

目前看来,百思买似乎也是一个赢家。因为未来几周,学生很可能要待在家里,家长们也得在家办公,所以很多人都在改善自家的网络连接情况,并且购买iPads等新设备。

即使疫情能在几个月内得到缓解,它对一些零售商的影响也可能是长期的。百货商店和服装连锁店通常在每年的这个时候就要为假日季安排订单了。但是从眼下看,消费者的信心水平和8个月后的购买力显然是不确定的。如果商家预订的商品太多,到时只能打折销售,严重影响利润;如果预订的太少,又意味着销量的损失。

如果疫情持续得太久,一些零售商就将遭到沉重打击,甚至是灭顶之灾。很多零售企业的财务状况薄弱,债台高举,意味着销售额的任何下降都有可能是灾难性的。这其中就包括J.C. Penney(该公司正在想方设法避免从纽交所退市,而且它第四季度的财务业绩十分难看)、内曼马库斯和J.Crew等。J.Crew正在努力剥离旗下的高端牛仔品牌Madewell,但在当前的环境下——道琼斯指数本周一狂跌13%——要想让Madewell独立上市,看来不太可能。

桑德斯表示:“如果你没有稳健的财务基础,你就根本不可能经受住这场风暴。”(财富中文网)

译者:隋远洙

在刚刚过去的这个周末,美国零售业出现了截然相反的两种现象——沃尔玛、好市多和塔吉特百货等大型商超的门口排起了长龙,因为老百姓都想在家中囤积食品和必需的生活用品。塔吉特百货的CEO布莱恩·康奈尔也在本周一表示,消费者在该公司的门店内“购物持续激增”的现象仍然在持续。

但很多其他零售商,比如已经关闭门店的Abercrombie & Fitch、耐克、R.E.I.和安德玛等,都表示关闭时间还会延长。Gap Inc等部分零售商也宣布将缩短营业时间。上周一,美国科尔士百货和诺德斯特龙也表示将缩短门店的营业时间。为什么会有这种差别?答案很明显,生活必需品对于消费者来说是刚需,不买也得买;而衣服、家居等则并非刚需,就算不买新的,也能用旧的先凑合着。

GlobalData Retail公司的总经理尼尔·桑德斯对《财富》表示:“这是人们第一个削减开支的领域。很多消费者将个人可支配收入用在了囤积生活必需品上。”这种场面俨然是2009年金融危机时期的翻版,当时除了生活必需品,人们的所有其他支出都大幅下降,梅西百货、J.C. Penney以及Gap等商场和连锁服装店都遭到了严重打击,销售额下滑几乎达到百分之十几。

研究公司Customer Growth Partners上个月曾经预测道,今年美国的零售业销售额将增长4.1%。现在该公司认为,如果疫情持续到初夏,那么该增长率可能将只有1%左右。

对百货公司和服装连锁店来说,如果各州、县、市政府下令关闭商场,情况就会更加雪上加霜。因为百货公司和服装连锁店一般都是在商场里经营的。上周,西蒙房地产集团在费城郊外的普鲁士国王商场对商户表示,县政府希望一些不销售生活必需品的零售机构暂时关闭。本周一,西蒙房地产集团宣布了一笔巨额的融资计划。而大型商场运营商Macerich公司也因为“不确定且迅速变化的环境”削减了分红。这很有可能是那些困难的商户要求在疫情期间减免租金造成的。

塔吉特百货、沃尔玛和克罗格都可能抢走这些百货公司的一部分市场份额,因为他们的生活必需品种类很广,库存也较为充足。

福雷斯特公司研究员苏查里塔·柯达里表示:“这就是塔吉特百货和沃尔玛的优势,他们有药店,也有食杂店。”新增的消费人流同样也会促进他们其他类别的产品销售,比如衣服和家庭用品等。“他们也不会在电子产品或者服装区域周围放一个隔离带,所以他们还是能获得一些额外的业务的。”上周,达乐公司曾表示,当前的不确定性很可能会提高它的销售额,因为在疫情期间,人们肯定会选择在离家较近的地方消费。

过去两年间,无论是沃尔玛还是克罗格,特别是塔吉特百货,都在大力加强衣服和家居产品。也就是说,他们应该会继续从百货商场手里抢份额。在刚刚过去的假日季,塔吉特百货的服装销量涨势强劲,而梅西百货和科尔士百货的销量与上一个圣诞季基本保持了同一水平。

目前看来,百思买似乎也是一个赢家。因为未来几周,学生很可能要待在家里,家长们也得在家办公,所以很多人都在改善自家的网络连接情况,并且购买iPads等新设备。

即使疫情能在几个月内得到缓解,它对一些零售商的影响也可能是长期的。百货商店和服装连锁店通常在每年的这个时候就要为假日季安排订单了。但是从眼下看,消费者的信心水平和8个月后的购买力显然是不确定的。如果商家预订的商品太多,到时只能打折销售,严重影响利润;如果预订的太少,又意味着销量的损失。

如果疫情持续得太久,一些零售商就将遭到沉重打击,甚至是灭顶之灾。很多零售企业的财务状况薄弱,债台高举,意味着销售额的任何下降都有可能是灾难性的。这其中就包括J.C. Penney(该公司正在想方设法避免从纽交所退市,而且它第四季度的财务业绩十分难看)、内曼马库斯和J.Crew等。J.Crew正在努力剥离旗下的高端牛仔品牌Madewell,但在当前的环境下——道琼斯指数本周一狂跌13%——要想让Madewell独立上市,看来不太可能。

桑德斯表示:“如果你没有稳健的财务基础,你就根本不可能经受住这场风暴。”(财富中文网)

译者:隋远洙

This past weekend saw seemingly contradictory events play out: long lines were a constant at stores like Walmart, Costco, and Target as shoppers continued to stock up on household essentials and food. Target CEO Brian Cornell said on Monday the company continues to see a "sustained surge in shopping."

But many other retailers, such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Nike, R.E.I., and Under Armour said they were closing stores for an extended period, while others like Gap Inc. announced reduced store hours. (On Monday, Kohl's and Nordstrom also said they were cutting some store hours.) The key difference? Selling essentials consumers need versus selling discretionary items like clothing or home furnishings that people want but can get by without replacing.

"That’s the first area people will cut back on," Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail tells Fortune. "A lot of consumers are diverting their discretionary spending for stocking up." There are already echoes of 2009's Great Recession when spending on anything but necessities plummeted, punishing companies like Macy's, J.C. Penney, and clothing chains like the Gap with sales declines almost in the double-digits on a percentage basis.

Research firm Customer Growth Partners last month forecast retail sales would rise 4.1% this year. Now it thinks that increase could be as modest as 1% if the crisis lasts into early summer.

What could aggravate things for the department stores and clothing chains is if state, county, or city authorities close malls where such retailers typically operate, or reduce hours. Last week, Simon Property Group's King of Prussia Mall—outside Philadelphia—told tenants the county government expected non-essential retailers in the mall to close. Simon announced a big financing on Monday, while Macerich, a major mall operator, cut its dividend because of the "uncertain and rapidly changing environment." That most likely includes more distressed tenants asking for rent concessions.

Retailers like Target, Walmart, and Kroger are well positioned to take market share from department stores and clothing stores because of the breadth of their staples plus stock.

"That’s the benefit of Target and Walmart: they have pharmacy and they have grocery," says Forrester researcher Sucharita Kodali. And that extra shopper traffic will help them in other categories, like clothes and home goods. "They're not going to put a moat around the electronics or clothing sections of their stores so they'll get some extra business." (Last week Dollar General said it expected a sales boost from the current uncertainty as people are expected to stick closer to the area near their home.)

Walmart, Kroger, and especially Target, have ramped up their clothing and home goods selections in the last two years, meaning they should continue to take market share from department stores: Target's apparel sales grew at a healthy clip during the holiday season, while Macy's and Kohl's sales were on par with the prior Christmas period.

(Best Buy so far also seems to be a winner too, as parents facing the prospect of working from home for weeks with kids out of school race to improve their home internet capabilities and buy new devices like iPads.)

Even if the coronavirus crisis eases in a few months, its impact on some retailers could be long lasting. Department stores and apparel chains typically order merchandise for the holiday season right about now. But they are doing so in a climate of high uncertainty about levels of consumer confidence and spending power in eight months, increasing the risk of over-ordering, which would lead to margin-killing discounting, or under-ordering, which means lost sales.

Another thing that can hurt some of these retailers and perhaps take some of them out if this goes on for too long: many have weak balance sheets and high debt loads, meaning any drop in sales could be catastrophic. That includes the likes of J.C. Penney (which is struggling to prevent being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and reported awful fourth quarter results), Neiman Marcus, and J.Crew. (J.Crew has been banking on spinning off its Madewell business, but in this environment—the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13% on Monday—a listing is unlikely.)

"If you don’t have a good balance sheet going into this you are not in a position to weather this storm at all," says Saunders.

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