忽视直觉有可能错过商机

企业家内部网络是一个在线社区，美国最有思想、最具影响力的一些创业大咖会在这里及时回答关于创业和职业生涯的问题。今天的问题是：“当你进行一个艰难的商业决策时，何时应该相信直觉？”以下为Local ID公司创始人及首席执行官艾利克斯·诺西弗拉的回答。

在过去12年里，我曾经先后创办过三家公司，我的直觉已经成为制定商业决策时一个值得信赖的“导航工具”——但这种直觉并非一朝一夕形成的。在创业早期，我的直觉还不具备那种随着头发渐白、岁月洗礼而积淀出的老道智慧，让我能够自信地进行决策。但直觉也是一种技能，和很多技能一样，它是可以锻炼的，是可以随着时间推移而日益精进的。

任何一名正在踏上创业旅程的企业家，都有责任成为公司的“直觉领袖”。在创业的早期阶段，你的直觉往往闪耀着你创立的企业的灵魂。但在企业的运营系统步入正轨，并获得期望的成果之前，你并不知道自己依靠直觉制定的决策究竟是对还是错。

创业伊始，我会自然而然地依赖于我信任的顾问圈子，以及我个人收藏的“创业宝典”和投资人，我经常从中汲取智慧和专业知识。

现在，历经多年创业生涯之后，我又成立了一家名为Local ID的公司，并兼任公司首席执行官。我已经学会了如何听从我的直觉，让它引导我推动公司增长和并购，最终获得期望的成果。即便在这样一个专注于大数据的环境中，那种能推动你做出睿智决策的肾上腺素飙升的感觉，仍然是不管多少大数据都模拟不出来的。

逻辑自身并不会考虑到人为失误因素。因此，我们有时候必须依靠自己的直觉。唯如此，我们才能抓住增长良机。正是在那些必须追随自身直觉的时候，我们才能产生独特的影响、找到具有创意的解决方案。

今天，我们的业务结构要求我们必须明确三个核心决策领域：客户、员工和投资者。有趣的是，你的直觉能够相当精确地预判所有利益相关方的反应模式。我们或将做出的决策会对这三个关键群体产生何种影响？此外，你还可以将你的决策带入时间、紧迫性、成本和收益等维度进行思考，从而勾勒出一幅更清晰的图画。

最后，要对你做出的赌注有信心，正是你承担的风险让你有了这种直觉和胆量。不过你也要记住，你正在运营的是一家初创公司。这本身就是一种颠覆性和变革性的行为，也就是说，你正处于一个错误多发的领地。如果你在等待一个完美的、零风险的答案，你就很有可能错过商机——有时商机可能会直接飞到你的竞争对手手里。要学会接受犯错的可能性，不要害怕直觉这个宝贵的人类本能：只要你的直觉胜多败少，你就应该能取得最终的成功。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

审校：任文科

The Entrepreneur Insider network is an online community where the most thoughtful and influential people in America’s startup scene contribute answers to timely questions about entrepreneurship and careers. Today’s answer to the question “When making a tough business decision, how do you know when to trust your gut?” is written by Alex Nocifera, founder and CEO of Local ID.

With three startups launched over the last 12-plus years, my gut has become a trusted navigational tool for my business decision-making process—but it’s taken time. In my early years as an entrepreneur, my gut didn’t quite have the grey-haired, seasoned wisdom to confidently live out the decision-making path. But gut intuition is a skill, and as with many skills, it can be trained and fine-tuned over time.

Any founder setting out on the entrepreneurial journey has the responsibility of being the company’s instinctual leader. It’s often in the early stages of entrepreneurship that your gut shines with the soul of the company you founded. But it isn’t until your operations methodically align and your business reaches desired outcomes that you know you’ve nailed the gut decision-making process.

Naturally, when I started out, I often leaned on my trusted circle of advisors, my personal collection of business bibles, and my investors for wisdom and expertise.

Now, with several years of experience as an entrepreneur, paired with the day-to-day charge of being CEO and founder of my most recent startup,Local ID, I’ve learned how to listen to my gut to drive growth, acquisition, and ultimately, get desired outcomes. Even in an environment that focuses on big data, there’s never going to be enough big data to simulate that stomach-flipping adrenaline rush that drives you to make a strong, thoughtful decision.

Logic alone doesn’t take into account human error. It’s so important for us to lean in to those gut feelings—that’s where we catch great growth opportunities. In situations where we must follow our instincts, that’s when we make unique impacts and uncover out-of-the-box solutions.

Today, the structure of our business requires us to identify three core areas of decision-making: customers, employees, and investors. What’s interesting here is that your gut instinct develops a pretty good sense for how all of these stakeholders will respond. How will whatever decision we’re faced with impact those three key constituents? Additionally, you can factor in the dimensions of time, urgency, cost, and gain to contextualize your scenario and paint a clearer picture.

Ultimately, being confident in the bets you make and the risks you take gives you a gut instinct. But it’s important to keep in mind that you’re running a startup—you’re officially in the business of disrupting and changing behavior, meaning you’re very much at the epicenter of mistakes. If you’re waiting for the perfect, no-risk answer, there’s a good chance that the opportunity will fly by—sometimes right into your competitors’ hands. Embrace the potential of being wrong, but don’t be afraid to go with that priceless human instinct: As long as your gut’s win-loss column nets positive, you should come out victorious.