卡舒吉被虐杀后，沙特将陷入长期分歧

随着沙特记者贾马尔·卡舒吉可能惨遭谋杀一事曝光，似乎很难相信就在一年前，沙特首都利雅得还对未来充满憧憬。

当时一家西式酒店26岁的女接待员告诉我，王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（以下简称穆罕默德）允许女性从事与男性客户接触的工作，她很激动。“我想过离开国家，但现在没必要了。”她说。沙特设计周开幕时有数百名嘻哈青年参加，有些人急切地告诉我穆罕默德领导下的沙特不断变化，让人十分兴奋，而且不停谈论几周前自发举行的街头派对。“情况在彻底变化。”27岁的内利·阿塔尔滔滔不绝地说，她是健身教练，长长卷曲的头发卷自然垂下，没有戴伊斯兰教规定的头巾。政府终于向女性发放健身执照，她刚拿到就在首都利雅得开设了一家女子健身房。

现在情况又发生了变化，但这次可能滑向了糟糕的一面。

细节不断涌现，人们开始知道沙特人在伊斯坦布尔领事馆内如何折磨卡舒吉，甚至肢解了尸体，此事对沙特最亲密盟友美国的影响十分深远。近几周特朗普都拒绝批评默罕默德，但上周四他告诉《纽约时报》，沙特阿拉伯要承担“非常严重的”后果。

外界严重反应的影响可能会逐渐蔓延，并持续很长时间，尤其是对王储。刚满33岁的王储穆罕默德在过去一年里执掌沙特，准备接替病重的父亲，也是沙特国王萨勒曼，明年即将登上王位。

现在一切似乎存疑，而且可能推翻美国的政策。特朗普计划放弃2015年伊朗核协议的同时也在实施另一项更严厉的制裁，11月4日将禁止欧佩克的第四大原油生产国伊朗向全球市场出口石油。美国这么做是因为沙特可以额外出口石油，补上伊朗的缺口，从而避免全球市场上石油价格飙升。

尽管如此，王储似乎完全不关心白宫的谴责。

自从10月2日卡舒吉消失以来，王储私下打的算盘是可以歪曲事实且不负后果。报道称卡舒吉在沙特驻伊斯坦布尔的土耳其领事馆里遭屠杀三天后，王储在利雅得告诉彭博社，卡舒吉“进入领事馆后几分钟或一小时后便已离开”，但他肯定知道事实真相并非如此。

然而，逃避谋杀罪名可能比让人原谅说谎难多了。首先，美国政界拼命鼓吹穆罕默德是年轻具有开创精神的改革派，一直努力在严守瓦哈比伊斯兰教的沙特引入自由主义。

如今，当初鼓吹穆罕默德的政客看起来要为一系列事件买单，他们支持王储的改革计划，又称为2030年愿景，却忽略了其统治无情的一面。举些例子：沙特使用从美国买的武器和飞机，还有美国援助，对也门的胡塞叛乱分子进行残酷轰炸。据联合国估计，该次袭击造成大约16,000名平民死亡，并造成大范围的饥荒和霍乱。去年，王储还对邻国对手卡塔尔实施封锁，美国在卡塔尔拥有庞大的军事基地。国内方面则监禁了不少活动家和批评者。

卡舒吉在《华盛顿邮报》的专栏里详细介绍了上述种种行为，而在另一边，美国官员仍然把王储当成改革中东的关键。

要相信穆罕默德不知道卡舒吉的噩运实在太难，虽然沙特最初声称（其实就是辩解），卡舒吉的死是因为抓人或审讯没做好，而不是预谋的谋杀。“不要侮辱我的智商，也不要藐视我的支持。”上周二共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆对福克斯电视台节目Fox & Friends表示，他称穆罕默德“让人伤心失望”。“我向来支持沙特，因为他们是战略盟友。”格雷厄姆说。他补充道，“现在我感觉被利用了。”

对于美国许多家公司的首席执行官和西方金融官员来说也是一样，很多人原本打算飞往利雅得参加上周二开始的“未来投资计划”，该论坛由沙特主权财富基金组织，号称“沙漠中的达沃斯”，举办地点在利雅得的丽思卡尔顿酒店。讽刺的是，去年穆罕默德曾在该酒店软禁多位沙特公司高层。大多数高层连罪名也没有便被抓，有些软禁达数月，很多人上交部分财产给沙特官方后才被释放。论坛网站上向企业领导人承诺绘制“22世纪的蓝图”，仿佛不比当下这个混乱的世纪就行。论坛期间有“全球领导人交流、私人会议、主题圆桌，世界级娱乐，与顶尖首席执行官交流，而且可享受全球媒体曝光。”

现在看起来，穆罕默德承诺打造全新国家实在过于夸张。

上周四，美国财政部长史蒂文·姆努辛最终决定放弃去利雅得参会，道指也应声下挫327点。此前法国和荷兰财长、国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德、还有众多商业领袖，包括摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙和黑石集团的斯蒂芬·施瓦兹曼，以及渣打银行和瑞信首席执行官纷纷取消行程。尽管沙特阿拉伯对Uber投资达35亿美元，但Uber首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨西也决定放弃前去参会。

最可悲的是，一位沙特记者为挑战穆罕默德付出了生命的代价，而且这起谋杀案的细节堪称毛骨悚然，让全世界反胃。而且，卡舒吉的死亡还可能导致极具破坏性的后果。

穆罕默德希望国家稳定，急需2030年愿景。尽管沙特拥有庞大的石油财富，但随着全球石油价格下滑，近年来沙特经济举步维艰。最近国际货币基金组织估计，油价达到每桶85美元左右，沙特才能平衡预算（不过该数字没有考虑沙特的现金储备）。然而最近油价远未达到85美元。

还有比赤字更糟糕的事，即数百万沮丧的青年进入劳动力市场却找不到什么工作，这也是2011年导致阿拉伯之春事件的因素之一。据世界银行统计，沙特人口达3300万人，约一半在25岁以下，其中四分之一的人失业。创造就业机会迫在眉睫。

为推动经济转型，从完全依赖石油美元到实现经济多元化，2016年穆罕默德公布了2030年愿景，承诺将机场、铁路和公共服务私有化，规范企业，还允许女性进入劳动力市场（因此今年他决定允许女性开车）。一些美国巨头纷纷抓住机遇，柏克德在建设利雅得地铁，高盛则负责监督利雅得机场的部分私有化。

如果沙特公认的领导人不够稳定，还有多少美国公司愿意去做生意？“整个改革计划都需要外国直接投资，然而数月来资金一直在流出沙特，却没有流入。”《纽约时报》专栏作家托马斯·弗里德曼在上周四写道，他长期观察沙特（以前曾是穆罕默德的粉丝）。“现在情况只会更糟。”

此外，2030年愿景能否实现，很大程度上依赖目前全球最大的石油公司沙特阿美公司约10%资产的上市计划。经济学家估计本次上市将为沙特国库带来1亿美元的资金。“经济多样化计划取决于IPO能否成功。” 去年10月巴黎国际能源署的沙特专家凯特·杜阿里从利雅得回来后告诉我，如果上市不成功，2030年愿景将会受到严重影响。

现在，上市计划已无限推迟，因为这家原本不透明的石油公司要将财务报表公开。一些能源分析师甚至质疑沙特的石油储量，多年来石油储量一直保持平稳，每年约为2600亿桶。

“对股东总是要保持透明，我们有一个股东。” 沙特阿美的首席执行官阿敏·纳萨尔告诉我说，不过他指的股东是沙特国王萨勒曼，去年10月，我在位于达兰的沙特阿美公司总部为《财富》杂志采访了他。“只要能成功上市，我们会非常乐意分享所有数据。”但卡舒吉10月2日失踪和死亡以来，全世界发现想从沙特获得真实信息可能并不容易。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

It seems hard to believe in the wake of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s probable horrific murder, but only a year ago, the mood in Riyadh was virtually electric.

At that time, a 26-year-old woman receptionist at a Western hotel told me she was thrilled that the Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, or MBS, had allowed women to accept jobs involving interacting with male clients. “I thought of leaving the country, but now there is no need,” she said. Some of the hundreds of hip youth packing the opening of the Saudi Design Week rushed to tell me how excited they were about their changing prospects under MBS, and could barely stop talking about the spontaneous street party that had erupted weeks before. “Things are totally changing,” gushed Nelly Attar, a 27-year-old fitness instructor with long, curly hair that flowed free without the required Islamic head covering. She had just opened a women’s gym in the capital after the government finally granted women gym licenses.

Now things are about to change again—and perhaps in a very bad way.

As the gory details emerge of how Saudi operatives allegedly seized Khashoggi inside the consulate in Istanbul, then dismembered his body before flying out of the country, the implications for Saudi Arabia’s closest ally, the United States, are profound. After weeks in which President Trump balked from criticizing MBS, he told the New York Times on last Thursday that the consequences for Saudi Arabia “have to be very severe.”

In reality, the implications of a severe response could spread wide, and last long—not least for the Crown Prince, who at just 33 years old has effectively run Saudi Arabia for the past year and is poised to succeed his father, the ailing King Salman, on the throne as soon as next year.

All of that now looks in doubt, potentially upturning U.S. policy. As part of President Trump’s plan to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, he is imposing another, tougher round of sanctions on November 4—two weeks away—banning the Islamic Republic, OPEC’s fourth biggest producer, from exporting oil on world markets. Baked into the new sanctions has been the assurance that Saudi Arabia will supply additional oil to cover the loss of Iranian crude, in order to avoid soaring prices on world markets.

Yet despite that, Crown Prince has appeared totally unconcerned with any opprobrium from the White House.

One cold calculation he has made since Khashoggi vanished on October 2 was that he could bend the facts without consequences. Just three days after Khashoggi was reportedly butchered in the Turkish consulate in Istanbul, he told Bloomberg in Riyadh that Khashoggi had “entered and he got out after a few minutes or one hour”—a statement he surely knew was not true.

But getting away with murder might be harder than getting away with lies. For one thing, U.S. politicians have staked their credibility on trumpeting MBS as a ground-breaking young reformist, ushering in liberalism in a country that adheres to a severe form of Wahhabi Islam.

Now, those politicians look like they might have been suckered into buying a bill of goods—or at least, that they chose to champion the Crown Prince’s reform plan, called Vision 2030, while ignoring more ruthless aspects of his rule. Among them: prosecuting a brutal bombing campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen—fought with weapons and planes purchased from the U.S., and with U.S. assistance—which the U.N. estimates has killed about 16,000 civilians and caused widespread famine and cholera. The Crown Prince also instituted a blockade last year against next-door rival Qatar, where the U.S. has a large military base, and has jailed activists and critics at home.

All those alarming actions were eloquently outlined in Khashoggi’s columns in the Washington Post, even while U.S. officials embraced the Crown Prince as the key to overhauling the entire Middle East.

But nothing appears more gullible that than believing that MBS had no knowledge of Khashoggi’s impending doom—even if, as the Kingdom originally claimed (in its defense!) his death was a botched abduction or interrogation, rather than premeditated murder. “I will not have my intelligence insulted or my support disrespected,” Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham raged on Fox & Friends on last Tuesday, calling MBS “a wrecking ball.” “I was the leading advocate for Saudi Arabia because they are a strategic ally,” Graham said. Now, he added, “I feel used and abused.”

The same might be said for the many U.S. CEOs and Western financial officials who were set to fly to Riyadh for the Future Investment Initiative, which begins on last Tuesday. The so-called “Davos in the Desert” organized by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, is ironically being held in the Ritz Carlton Riyadh, which MBS last year transformed into a luxury prison for Saudi business leaders. Those execs were held mostly without charge, some for months, many of them released only after turning over some of their fortune to the Saudi leadership. The website for next week’s conference promises business leaders a “blueprint for the 22nd century”—never mind the messy century we’re living through—in “conversations with global leaders, private meetings, curated roundtables, world-class entertainment, unparalleled CEO networking, and deep engagement with global media.”

That now looks hugely overblown, as does MBS’s promises to create a dramatically new country.

On last Thursday U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin finally dropped plans to attend the Riyadh conference, sending the Dow down 327 points. He was one of the final hold-outs after cancellations by French and Dutch finance ministers, IMF chief Christine Lagarde, and numerous business leaders, including CEOs Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan and Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, and the chief execs of Standard Chartered and Credit Suisse. Even Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi pulled out despite Saudi Arabia’s $3.5 billion investment in his company.

Tragically, one Saudi journalist has paid a deadly price for challenging MBS—a murder whose alleged macabre details have nauseated the world. But there might be highly damaging fallout from Khashoggi’s death, too.

For the Crown Prince to rule over a stable country, he badly needs Vision 2030 to work. Despite Saudi’s mammoth oil wealth, its economy has faltered in recent years, as global oil prices have slid ever lower. The IMF recently estimated that the country needs oil prices of about $85 a barrel in order to balance its budget (although the figure does not take into account the Kingdom’s cash reserves). Until recently, oil prices were nowhere near that.

Worse than deficits, perhaps, is the prospect of millions of frustrated youth hitting the labor market, and finding few jobs—one factor that sparked the Arab Spring revolutions in 2011. Among Saudi Arabia’s 33 million people, about half are under 25, and about one-quarter of them are unemployed, according to the World Bank. Job creation is urgent.

In order to diversify the economy from being almost entirely run on petrodollars, MBS unveiled Vision 2030 in 2016, promising to privatize airports, railroads, and public services, regulate businesses, and throw open the labor market to women (hence his decision this year to allow women to drive); some U.S. corporate giants have leaped at the opportunities, with Bechtel building the Riyadh Metro and Goldman Sachs overseeing the partial privatization of Riyadh Airport.

How many more U.S. companies will jump on large deals, if Saudi’s putative leader is seen as erratic? “His whole reform program required direct foreign investment—and money has been flowing out of Saudi Arabia for months, not in,” New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, a long Saudi watcher (and formerly MBS fan) wrote on last Thursday. “Now it will get worse.”

In addition, Vision 2030 has depended heavily on a flotation of about 10% of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company by far, originally scheduled for this year. Economists estimated the IPO would bring about $100 million into Saudi coffers. “The economic diversification program hinges on the success of the IPO,” Kate Dourian, a Saudi expert at the International Energy Agency in Paris, told me after I returned from Riyadh last October. Without the IPO, Vision 2030 would badly falter, she said.

Now, the IPO has been put off until some unknown date, in part because it would have demanded that the opaque oil company finally open its books to public scrutiny. Some energy analysts even question Saudi Arabia’s stated oil reserves, which have remained level for many years, at about 260 billion barrels.

“You always need to be transparent with your shareholders, and we have one shareholder,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told me, referring to Saudi King Salman, when I interviewed him for Fortune at Aramco HQ in Dhahran last October. “When we go public, we will be more than happy to share all the data, as soon as we are listed.” As the world has learned since Khashoggi’s disappearance and death on October 2, prying information from Saudi Arabia can be difficult.