不想被亚马逊碾压？这些建议不容错过

如果你以卖东西为生，无论是服装、鞋类、日用杂货、音乐、视频、图书还是技术，最终都要跟亚马逊竞争，因为这些行业里亚马逊都有庞大的业务。在首席执行官杰夫·贝佐斯带领下，亚马逊已经让所有竞争对手望而生畏。

这就是为什么洋葱新闻最近模仿贝佐斯给初创公司提的建议简直以假乱真。洋葱新闻向来以杜撰新闻出名，最近冒贝佐斯的名义说：

“重视客户，用心招人，找个需求没有得到满足的市场，然后你会发现总有一天会彻底败在我手上。”

那么，进取的投资者怎样寻找新商机才能避免遭亚马逊碾压？投行摩根士丹利给了一些建议。

首先，投资者应该选择产品专业性很强的公司。如果产品是为一个大市场的小分支，理论上说，亚马逊介入竞争的可能性相对不高。毕竟，亚马逊一直在做大销售额的生意。

摩根士丹利分析师布莱恩·诺瓦克发布的报告中指出，从旅游、奢侈品甚至日用杂货领域都能找到小众专业产品。

听起来言之有理。亚马逊正打算豪掷137亿美元收购日用杂货连锁店全食超市，对沃尔玛之类大型仓储店和克罗格、Stop & Shop之类地方连锁零售店形成巨大威胁，但对专注本地业务的小型零售店来说并没有那么可怕。我估计，无论亚马逊收购全食超市的结果如何，在我故乡主营生鲜食物、高档肉类、奶酪、烘焙食品和鲜花的Russo's都会安然无恙。（祝Russo's好运。）

诺瓦克还预计，面临复杂监管要求的行业亚马逊也不会轻易涉足，其中包括医药、医疗保健、汽车、金融服务、保险、能源、公用事业和电信等。以医药业为例，研发就可能耗上很多年，而且受到严格监管。这些领域的销售周期显然不符合亚马逊追求快销多销的路子。

这么看来，医药研发很可能不会吸引亚马逊，但处方药经销可能还是躲不开。

报告认为，无论哪种服务，只要涉及去家中或者办公室里检查、安装或者维修，亚马逊就不会有兴趣。因此分析师预计，亚马逊不太可能进军家装和汽车维修行业。

也许吧，但或许也不一定。要知道，亚马逊已经在电商网站出售汽车零部件和各类硬件，还提供亚马逊本地生活服务Amazon Home Services，与家政服务网站Angie's List和生活服务外包网站Task Rabbit展开竞争。通过Amazon Home Services，消费者可以请人打扫屋子、安装家具，做其他家务，服务提供商都是第三方，并非亚马逊员工。

在信息技术服务业，亚马逊的云计算业务Amazon Web Services创立11年来，一直通过提高自身能力拓展服务和支持范围，已与埃森哲和凯捷咨询公司等企业签署合作协议，联手从事售后服务，

需要提醒的一点是，虽然摩根士丹利报告提出了一些中肯的建议，但也要指出，十二年、十三年前，当时关注亚马逊图书销售业务的人都没预料到亚马逊会成为信息技术服务的领头羊，现在的亚马逊却做到了。

毫不夸张地说，对惠普、IBM、微软、思科等信息技术业传统巨头来说，Amazon Web Services是出其不意的一击。所以看亚马逊的时候，永远要记住放开想象力，没什么不可能的。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审稿：夏林

If you're in the business of selling things—clothes, shoes, groceries, music, video, books, or technology—you will end up competing with Amazon, which has built huge businesses in each of those areas. Indeed, the company led by CEO Jeff Bezos has put the fear of God into any number of companies it bumps up against.

That's why a recent Onion parody outlining Bezos' advice to startups rings true. Here are faux Bezos' words of wisdom:

"Value your customers, hire well, find a market that isn’t being served, and realize that someday I will utterly crush you."

So how can an enterprising investor seek new opportunities without being creamed by Amazon? Morgan Stanley has some suggestions.

First, investors should scrutinize companies that offer highly specialized products. If something is designed for a small sub-segment of a big market, Amazon is less likely to go there, in theory. Amazon has always been about big volume sales, after all.

Specialized niches can be found in travel, luxury goods, even groceries, according to report by Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak.

This rings true. While Amazon's pending $13.7 billion acquisition of grocery chain Whole Foods looms large over big box stores like Walmart and regional chains like Kroger and Stop & Shop, its impact on smaller local specialty stores doesn't seem as dire. Here's betting that my hometown Russo's, which focused on fresh produce, high-grade meat, cheese, baked goods and flowers, will do just fine whatever happens with Amazon and Whole Foods. (Fingers crossed.)

Nowak also said that businesses that face complex regulatory requirements would be difficult for Amazon to enter. In this bucket he puts pharmaceuticals, healthcare, automobiles, financial services, insurance, energy, and utilities and telecommunications. In pharma, for example, R&D can take years and is closely scrutinized. The sales cycles in these areas can also be drawn out in a way that seems antithetical to Amazon's fast, volume sales approach.

So, it does seem likely that Amazon would steer clear of pharmaceutical R&D but may also move into prescription drug distribution.

Any sort of service that requires home or office visits for inspection, installation, or repair would likewise be unattractive to Amazon, according to the report. Thus, the analysts think it unlikely that Amazon would jump into home improvement or car repair.

Perhaps, but again the lines are blurry. For one thing, Amazon already sells car parts and all sorts of hardware on its e-commerce site. It also offers Amazon Home Services, a competitor to Angie's List and Task Rabbit. Customers can use this service to find people—although not Amazon employees—to clean house, assemble furniture, and the like.

In the realm of IT services, Amazon Web Services, the company's 11-year old cloud computing unit has bulked up service and support both by expanding its own service capabilities and signing up companies like Accenture and Cap Gemini as allies in taking care of customers after a sale.

One caveat here: The report makes valid points, but it should be noted that 12 or 13 years ago, very few people watching Amazon's book-selling business anticipated that the company would become a leader in IT services, which is exactly what happened.

It is no exaggeration to say that AWS blindsided IT incumbents including Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Microsoft, and Cisco. So when it comes to Amazon, people should never say never.