微软选帅别忘了彭明盛

    上个月，当我审视史蒂夫•鲍尔默第无数次的微软(Microsoft)重组计划时（这应该还只是上个月的事吧？），我就注意到，重组工作的一大关键缺失就是领导层。没有乔布斯操刀的苹果（Apple）重组绝不会获得成功。重组需要的是一个懂得企业文化，敢于大刀阔斧，推行有效做法，赢得员工尊重的人。

    当然，微软并不是没有这样的人，但从普遍看法以及此人言论来看，比尔•盖茨根本不感兴趣。

    那么，谁能管好微软？让我们先从那些被反复提起的人谈起。首先就是如今已成为其他机构领导者的前微软高管们。保罗•马里茨曾任VMware CEO，现经营一家名为Pivotal的公司。史蒂夫•辛诺夫斯基在学术界转了一圈后，最近签约受雇于安德森-霍罗维茨风险投资公司（Andreessen Horowitz）。杰夫•莱克斯正在管理着比尔与美琳达•盖茨基金会（Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation）。我把这几人都排除在外了。他们曾在不同时代分管微软的某些业务，而如今微软需要的是文化复兴。他们与辉煌一时的旧微软联系紧密。（作为一位问题创始人，乔布斯缺场苹果公司大部分的低谷期；可以说，他在的时候几乎都是苹果公司最好的时候。）

    当然，人们也提到了一些现任微软高管的名字。托尼•贝茨是这个名单中可信度最高的。此人就职于思科（Cisco）期间就是一位名副其实的技术专家和高管，曾经主导了Skype的复兴，Skype被微软收购后这几年他也一直留任。贝茨被视为外部人士，但他从未管理过像微软这么大规模和业务这么广泛的公司。朱莉•拉尔森-格林和萨蒂亚•纳德拉是担任要职的微软高管。她们合起来已在微软服务41年，似乎不太适合迎接未来的挑战。下一位。

    预测哪些外部人士是真正有趣的事。假如微软收购了马克•贝尼奥夫和杰夫•贝佐斯的公司，这两人将是令人振奋的选择。但别指望这个。有一位微软的老人推荐了一名准外部人士：Yammer公司CEO大卫•萨克斯——贝宝（PayPal）圈子里的一员。这是个好主意，但没有任何证据显示创业者萨克斯能够应对得了管理这么庞大的一个机构所需要面对的繁缛官僚噩梦。

    那么，谁是那位拥有软硬件实力以及全球多元化组织管理经验的人才？以及拥有成功管理技术专才和销售人员的经验？此人就是现年62岁、刚从IBM退休的前任CEO彭明盛。不妨考虑一下。彭明盛一手打造了被称为“智慧的地球”(Smarter Planet)的市场营销策略，将IBM全部业务融入单一销售理念之下，获得了空前成功。他加速了IBM向软件的转型，其中接纳Linux开源软件平台的行动尤为引人瞩目。这个举动激怒了微软。外部CEO需要拥有怎样更好的资历才能让彭明盛相形见绌？  

    When I reviewed Steve Ballmer's umpteenth structural reorganization of Microsoft last month -- was it only last month? -- I noted that the key missing ingredient to making the construct work was leadership. A re-jiggered Apple without Steve Jobs doing the jiggering never would have been successful. It took the man who understood the culture of the organization, was willing to make the painful cuts as well as to promote what was working, and who commanded the respect of the employees, to succeed at Apple.

    Such a man exists for Microsoft (MSFT), of course, but according to conventional wisdom as well as comments the man has made, Bill Gates simply isn't interested.

    So who could run Microsoft? Let's start with the names being tossed about. The first bunch is ex-Microsoft executives who lead other organizations. Paul Maritz was CEO of VMware (VMW) and currently runs a company called Pivotal. Steve Sinofsky has been kicking around academia and recently signed on for a stint with Andreessen Horowitz. Jeff Raikes runs the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. I'd rule all of them out. They ran portions of Microsoft, an organization that needs a cultural re-boot, in other eras. They are too tied to the old Microsoft, despite that old Microsoft having been in its glory days. (As a problematic founder, Jobs missed most of Apple's (AAPL) decline; he arguably was around only for all but its best days.)

    There's a current crop of Microsoft names being mentioned too. Tony Bates is the most credible of this list. A legitimate technologist and manager from his Cisco (CSCO) days, he presided over Skype's rejuvenation and has stuck around for a couple of years at Microsoft. Bates counts as an outsider, but he hasn't run anything nearly the size and scope of Microsoft. Julie Larson-Green and Satya Nadella are top Microsoft executives in important roles. They have 41 years of Microsoft experience between them, and that just won't cut it for the future. Next.

    The real fun is in predicting outsiders. Marc Benioff and Jeff Bezos would be inspired choices if Microsoft were to buy their companies. Don't count on it. An ex-Microsoftie suggests a quasi-outsider, Yammer CEO David Sacks, a card-carrying member of the PayPal mafia. It's a fine idea, but for the absence of any evidence the entrepreneurial Sacks could handle the bureaucratic nightmare of running such massive organization.

    So who is the executive with software and hardware chops and the experience with fractious, global, diverse organizations? An executive with a proven track record managing technologists and sales people? That person, surprisingly, is 62-year-old Sam Palmisano, the recently retired CEO of IBM (IBM). Think about it. Palmisano presided over the stunningly successful marketing gambit called "Smarter Planet," a campaign that unified all of IBM behind a single sales concept. He accelerated IBM's move into software, notably emphasizing the company's embrace of the Linux open-source software platform. That's a move that infuriated Microsoft. What better credentials could an outsider CEO have than having humiliated and beaten his new charges?