商界人士如何参与建设新埃及

    总理雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安掌权的时代，如今的土耳其也是另一个处境类似的国家。和埃及一样，土耳其也迎来伊斯兰教兴起、以及军队退出政坛的新局面，尽管历史上军方一直在土耳其政坛占据举足轻重的地位。伊斯坦布尔的高级将领们已经遭到了有力地压制。与此同时，土耳其全社会正在重新审视国父穆斯塔法·凯末尔·阿塔土克公开宣称的世俗主义。爱琴海沿岸的精英们正在接受宗教气息更浓厚的安那托利亚人的崛起。由于土耳其试图将自身定位为伊斯兰世界的领袖，人们很容易忘记从军方掌权到埃尔多安时代过渡所经历的那个漫长时期。

    1998年5月印尼强人苏哈托的倒台也为我们提供了一个教训。在印尼，到现任总统班邦相对稳定的政权，过渡期也经历了相当久的时间，也许是10年。期间，该国经历了哈比比、苏加诺、瓦希德以及现任总统的第一个任期。这不是一个一蹴而就的过程。

    然而，我那些学生依然一如既往地务实，并没有让不耐烦阻碍他们的努力。他们将采取什么行动？其中一位学生说，穆巴拉克掌权时代，埃及之所以出现那样的情况，是因为没有人敢站出来说话。其实大多数民众都期待民主而不是强人统治。今天，提及他拿阿富汗所做的比较，我的那位学生说，同样的错误很可能会在埃及重演。如果埃及的温和派不站出来说话，持极端看法的人就会趁虚而入。用他的话说，到那时，埃及将为今天的沉默付出代价。

    对于我在国外工作的学生和其他企业家，我的建议没有改变。不要急着找退路，而应积极参与，在埃及身体力行、或者通过社交媒体去努力。这是塑造权力新轮廓的唯一方式。行动起来，尽自己的一份力。

    韩太云是哈佛商学院豪尔赫·保罗·雷曼教授、哈佛大学的南亚研究所主任以及《新兴市场的制胜之道：战略和执行路线图》（哈佛商业出版社，2010年）的联合作者。

    Turkey is another one to watch these days, in the era of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As in Egypt, Turkey features the rise of Islam, and the sidelining of a historically paramount army. Istanbul's generals have been decisively silenced. Along with that, Turkey is undergoing a societal reexamination Turkish founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's avowed secularism. The elites of the Aegean coast are coming to terms with the ascent of the more religious Anatolians. As Turkey tries to position itself as a leader of the Islamic world, it is easy to forget that the transition from the generals to Erdogan took time.

    The May 1998 fall of strongman Suharto in Indonesia also offers us a lesson. Here, the transition to the somewhat stable regime of current President Bambang took some time, perhaps a decade, through Habibie, Sukarnoputri, Wahid, and the current president's first term. It is not an overnight process.

    Yet my students, ever practical, have not let their impatience stymie their efforts. What are they to do? One of them said that the situation in Egypt under Mubarak came about because no one dared to speak up. Most would have preferred a democratic outcome to the strongman's rule. Today, referring back to his Afghanistan comparison, my student said the same error might very well repeat itself. If Egyptian moderates don't speak up, those with extreme views will, and then, in his words, Egypt will get what this silence merits.

    My advice to my students and other entrepreneurs working abroad has not changed. Don't rush for the exits; engage, either physically if in Egypt, or through social media. It is the only way to shape the new contours of power. Stand up and be counted.

    Tarun Khanna is Jorge Paulo Lemann Professor at the Harvard Business School, Director of Harvard University's South Asia Institute, and co-author of Winning in Emerging Markets: A Roadmap for Strategy and Execution (Harvard Business Press, 2010).