谁将成为迪士尼的下一任首席执行官？

The time has come for leaders to set and implement their year-ahead goals—and undoubtedly at the top of Disney CEO Bob Iger’s to-do list this year is to, once again, find his successor.

The 72-year-old chief, who has spent more than four decades at the entertainment giant, including 15 years as its CEO, was enlisted to run the company a second time in November 2022 with a clear mission to turn it around and find a suitable successor before his contract expires in 2026.

At the time, he was given a two-year deal expiring in December 2024, but Disney—which has been plagued by succession anxiety after Iger’s previously handpicked successor Bob Chapek failed to impress the board—extended his contract by two years last year.

With badly managed C-suite transitions costing companies in the S&P 1500 an estimated $1 trillion in market value every year, it’s critical Disney picks the right person to take the reins this time around.

To address these concerns, Iger used a recent appearance at The New York Times Dealbook Summit to reassure the public that the company’s succession process “is robust right now”.

So with the process already well underway, the million-dollar question is: What kind of person is Disney looking for in its next big boss?

“It comes back to what a business might need,” said Jonathan Wiles, managing partner at Page Executive, the executive search division of PageGroup. “Does it want a disruptor, or does it want a similar approach to the outgoing CEO?”

Who are the internal candidates?

Promoting from within would be the easiest option: Someone who can immediately understand the inner workings of the 100-year-old company with over 220,000 workers around the world.

“Hiring internally ensures the new CEO has a strong grasp of the company, its values, ways of working and position in the industry—all invaluable knowledge for the person at the head of the business,” said Wiles of Page Executive. “However, an external hire can be a breath of fresh air, bringing new insight and processes.”

Currently, internal candidates for the top job are said to include Dana Walden, co-chair of filmed entertainment, and Josh D’Amaro, who heads Disney theme parks.

What’s more, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs, who at one point were considered the heirs apparent to Iger, have also rejoined the company in advisory roles.

But keen spectators of Disney’s succession play shouldn’t read too much into talk about internal jockeying for the top job, warns Mark Freebairn, partner and head of the board and CFO practices at Odgers Berndtson, one of the world’s largest executive recruitment firms.

As one of the world’s most notable companies, Disney will have access to a global talent pool—literally, every top CEO will be pining for the position. So as Freebairn tells Fortune, “anyone’s fair game.”

Plus, if Iger’s second act at Disney’s helm is anything to go by, it could indicate that it’s high time for a shake-up at the company.

“Bob Iger is back because they wanted to capture the magic of what he did during his many years at Disney where the share price went up by like 400%,” Julio Bruno, the ex-CEO at Time Out who took the company public, tells Fortune.

“But that didn’t happen because the realities of the world and the world of media have dramatically changed in the last 10 years.”

Will the Disney board really want Iger 2.0?

Despite a sudden surge in Disney’s share price in the immediate aftermath of Iger’s appointment, shares have since continued on a downward trajectory and the stock price hit a nine-year low when it fell below $80 last October.

It’s why, Bruno says, the company won’t be looking for a Bob Iger 2.0 to take it into the future.

“They have a problem with their streaming channel, they had the problems with the NBC Fox acquisition, their theme parks are empty and then they had a number of flops like the Haunted Mansion and The Little Mermaid which lost millions,” said Bruno, who has held executive roles at Just Eat and TripAdvisor.

“So how do they regain the magic at Disney? They need, in my opinion, a big change—and that change isn’t going to come from inside.”

If one thing is clear, it’s that whoever fills in Iger’s shoes will have to wear many hats.

“I can’t even imagine managing a company like Disney that has so many different entities,” Bruno says. “You have to know about theme parks, retail, streaming, the subscription business, terrestrial TV, news… It’s going to be very difficult to find somebody who can capture two-thirds of that spectrum.”

In Freebairn’s eyes, multisite management experience won’t be “a serious consideration” for Disney.

“Their challenges and their opportunities are going to come through content and emerging technologies that allow you to get eyeballs in the most cost-effective way which they can then sell advertising and subscriptions off the back of,” he says. “Therefore, content creation—and how AI will impact that—will be very significant.”

It’s why, Freebairn predicts that Disney may be eyeing up “someone from a competing content stream provider” for its next chief.

“I have a feeling that it will be somebody much more looking at the future of streaming, purely digital,” Bruno agrees, adding that whoever runs Disney next will need to be much “younger” than their predecessor.

“Media has changed so dramatically in the last 20 years, but particularly the last five—with artificial intelligence and what is happening with the strikes,” he adds. “You need somebody who understands this new world.”

Who will choose Iger’s successor?

Whilst Iger will be part of the decision-making process, it is unlikely that he will have a real say in who steps into his shoes, experts told Fortune—and for good reason too.

“When it comes to selecting a new CEO, the power is rarely concentrated in one person’s hands but instead resides with a broad panel of decision-makers,” Wiles says. “The focus is on the needs of the company moving forward and the best direction to move in.”

It’s an important distinction to make because while the board will be looking at protecting Disney’s future, Iger who is at the end of his career might want to preserve his mark in Disney’s history book.

“Like in politics, you want to name the person who you feel is loyal to you, the person who will respect your legacy, who when you leave won’t say ‘oh my god, he was so bad, we have to change all this because he was terrible,’” Bruno explains.

“What do you have left when you are a consumed multimillionaire CEO like Iger with friends all over the world? The only thing you’ll want to preserve is your legacy.”