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坚持让员工回办公室,因为库克有“心理盲点”?

坚持让员工回办公室,因为库克有“心理盲点”?

Gleb Tsipursky 2021年07月30日
在制订复工或重返办公室相关政策时,商界领袖必须考虑到德尔塔变种病毒的影响。

图片来源:Luis Alvarez—Getty Images

以色列一份最新报告显示,新冠疫苗对德尔塔变种病毒的有效性仅为39%,在此背景之下,重返办公室办公绝非明智选择。对于其中风险,我们务必要有清醒意识:未来数月,德尔塔病例预计将大幅增加。事实上,美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)正考虑要求接种过疫苗的民众在室内恢复佩戴口罩,推荐民众接种加强针疫苗也已提上日程。

然而即便疫情高峰期居家办公取得了良好成果,还有德尔塔肆虐的忧虑,但许多大、中型企业甚至联邦政府仍在强制要求员工重返办公室办公。超过三分之一的员工已经重返办公室,预计其余员工大多将于夏末或秋季前半段重返办公室,届时,学校将会重新开放,德尔塔病例数量预计也将大幅飙升。

联邦政府及诸多家喻户晓的企业——苹果、施乐(Xerox)、摩根大通(JPMorgan)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、美国国际集团(American International Group)和雅培(Abbott Laboratories)——为何要把员工的健康置于危险之中呢?又为何眼见大量员工因被迫重返办公室而选择离职依然我行我素?

德尔塔病例数飙升之前,已有一系列针对员工对重返办公室态度的深度调查显示,如果无法获得自己想要的工作安排,约有一半的员工宁愿选择辞职。相关调查显示,1/4到1/3的员工想全职远程工作,而超过一半的员工希望实施“混合办公”模式,每周在办公室工作一到两天的时间。

由于雇主计划强制要求员工重返办公室办公,许多人已经辞去工作。现在,出于对德尔塔病毒爆发的恐惧,势必将有更多人因不愿承受突破性感染的健康风险而选择离职。

而如此多的大型企业之所以未能注意到员工对工作偏好和健康问题的关切,其根源在于所谓的“认知偏见”(一厢情愿且危险的判断偏差)。这类心理盲点会让领导者在进行选择时做出糟糕的战略和财务决策,使其仅凭感觉和个人喜好而非最佳实践制订重返办公室的政策。

其中,“正常化偏见”(拒绝为一场从未发生过的灾难做准备或做出反应)是导致领导者低估德尔塔病例激增威胁的最大原因,这种危险的判断偏差会让我们低估破坏性事件发生的可能性及影响。

目前,已有明显证据表明,自6月初开始,德尔塔病毒已导致美国新冠感染人数大幅增加。此外还有明显证据表明,自5月开始,在英国、以色列等疫苗接种率高于美国的国家也出现了因德尔塔病毒导致疫情升温的情况。

大型企业一直对自己基于数据进行决策的行为引以为荣。这些数据他们都有,甚至就在他们的眼皮底下,而且他们也没有理由不清楚新冠感染病例爆发式增长的危险,但他们依然对这种明显存在的危险置若罔闻,坚持强制要求员工重返办公室上班。

这就涉及到了另一个重要心理盲点——“计划谬误”。计划谬误会导致领导者作出过于乐观的计划,并在新证据已经证明相关计划并不明智的情况下拒绝改变。毕竟做出改变就意味着承认自己最初做出了错误决策。当新出现的证据表明需要进行改变时,软弱的领导者常常会拒绝承认错误,拒绝承认自己的计划有调整的必要,而强大的领导者则会展现出改变计划的勇气。

幸运的是,我们看到了少数公司表现出了这种勇气,只是很多改变只是小修小补,并未触及问题核心。

例如,苹果将重返办公室的时间从9月推迟到了10月。而这种推迟一个月的做法则表明其未能弄清问题的关键所在。不仅德尔塔变种病毒的爆发将于10月到达顶峰,另一个更大问题同样需要我们注意。

苹果和其他强制员工重返办公室的大企业需要面对的现实是,一方面,疫苗的免疫力在接种数月之后会逐渐减弱;另一方面,比德尔塔变种病毒威力更强的新病毒变种也在不断出现,可能是“德尔塔+”,也可能是其他类型。

考虑到未来较长一段时间内可能出现诸多与此相似的情况,德尔塔只能算是一个短期问题。我们之所以不愿意面对这种显而易见的困境则是因为一种学者们称之为“鸵鸟效应”的认知偏见(讹传鸵鸟会在面对危险时将头埋进沙子之中,虽然事实并非如此,但该效应却因此得名)。一项针对董事会解雇首席执行官的研究表明,否认负面现实是首席执行官遭到解雇的首要原因,有23%受访董事会成员选择该选项。

在重返办公室这一问题上,要克服正常化偏见、计划谬误和鸵鸟效应,我们需要依靠经过研究证明的最佳实践。而对于大多数员工而言,所谓最佳实践就是“混合工作模式”:每周在办公室工作一两天,有需要时则可以轻松转为全职远程工作。如果有相当一部分员工愿意全职远程工作,并且能够高效完成任务,那么何乐而不为呢?

借助这种最佳实践,那些最适合在办公室办公的员工可以最大化受益于办公室协作优势,同时还能留住那些将因无法全职远程工作选择离职的顶尖人才,并创建相应的公司文化、体系和流程,让所有员工都能在需要时全职开展远程工作。(财富中文网)

格列布•齐普斯基是前瞻规划(future-proofing)和认知偏差风险管理领域的思想领袖,目前在前瞻规划咨询公司——风险规避专家(Disaster Avoidance Experts)担任首席执行官,著有《重返办公室领导混合式远程团队:借助最佳实践获取竞争优势的基准手册》(Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams: A Manual on Benchmarking to Best Practices for Competitive Advantage)等畅销读物。

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

以色列一份最新报告显示,新冠疫苗对德尔塔变种病毒的有效性仅为39%,在此背景之下,重返办公室办公绝非明智选择。对于其中风险,我们务必要有清醒意识:未来数月,德尔塔病例预计将大幅增加。事实上,美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)正考虑要求接种过疫苗的民众在室内恢复佩戴口罩,推荐民众接种加强针疫苗也已提上日程。

然而即便疫情高峰期居家办公取得了良好成果,还有德尔塔肆虐的忧虑,但许多大、中型企业甚至联邦政府仍在强制要求员工重返办公室办公。超过三分之一的员工已经重返办公室,预计其余员工大多将于夏末或秋季前半段重返办公室,届时,学校将会重新开放,德尔塔病例数量预计也将大幅飙升。

联邦政府及诸多家喻户晓的企业——苹果、施乐(Xerox)、摩根大通(JPMorgan)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、美国国际集团(American International Group)和雅培(Abbott Laboratories)——为何要把员工的健康置于危险之中呢?又为何眼见大量员工因被迫重返办公室而选择离职依然我行我素?

德尔塔病例数飙升之前,已有一系列针对员工对重返办公室态度的深度调查显示,如果无法获得自己想要的工作安排,约有一半的员工宁愿选择辞职。相关调查显示,1/4到1/3的员工想全职远程工作,而超过一半的员工希望实施“混合办公”模式,每周在办公室工作一到两天的时间。

由于雇主计划强制要求员工重返办公室办公,许多人已经辞去工作。现在,出于对德尔塔病毒爆发的恐惧,势必将有更多人因不愿承受突破性感染的健康风险而选择离职。

而如此多的大型企业之所以未能注意到员工对工作偏好和健康问题的关切,其根源在于所谓的“认知偏见”(一厢情愿且危险的判断偏差)。这类心理盲点会让领导者在进行选择时做出糟糕的战略和财务决策,使其仅凭感觉和个人喜好而非最佳实践制订重返办公室的政策。

其中,“正常化偏见”(拒绝为一场从未发生过的灾难做准备或做出反应)是导致领导者低估德尔塔病例激增威胁的最大原因,这种危险的判断偏差会让我们低估破坏性事件发生的可能性及影响。

目前,已有明显证据表明,自6月初开始,德尔塔病毒已导致美国新冠感染人数大幅增加。此外还有明显证据表明,自5月开始,在英国、以色列等疫苗接种率高于美国的国家也出现了因德尔塔病毒导致疫情升温的情况。

大型企业一直对自己基于数据进行决策的行为引以为荣。这些数据他们都有,甚至就在他们的眼皮底下,而且他们也没有理由不清楚新冠感染病例爆发式增长的危险,但他们依然对这种明显存在的危险置若罔闻,坚持强制要求员工重返办公室上班。

这就涉及到了另一个重要心理盲点——“计划谬误”。计划谬误会导致领导者作出过于乐观的计划,并在新证据已经证明相关计划并不明智的情况下拒绝改变。毕竟做出改变就意味着承认自己最初做出了错误决策。当新出现的证据表明需要进行改变时,软弱的领导者常常会拒绝承认错误,拒绝承认自己的计划有调整的必要,而强大的领导者则会展现出改变计划的勇气。

幸运的是,我们看到了少数公司表现出了这种勇气,只是很多改变只是小修小补,并未触及问题核心。

例如,苹果将重返办公室的时间从9月推迟到了10月。而这种推迟一个月的做法则表明其未能弄清问题的关键所在。不仅德尔塔变种病毒的爆发将于10月到达顶峰,另一个更大问题同样需要我们注意。

苹果和其他强制员工重返办公室的大企业需要面对的现实是,一方面,疫苗的免疫力在接种数月之后会逐渐减弱;另一方面,比德尔塔变种病毒威力更强的新病毒变种也在不断出现,可能是“德尔塔+”,也可能是其他类型。

考虑到未来较长一段时间内可能出现诸多与此相似的情况,德尔塔只能算是一个短期问题。我们之所以不愿意面对这种显而易见的困境则是因为一种学者们称之为“鸵鸟效应”的认知偏见(讹传鸵鸟会在面对危险时将头埋进沙子之中,虽然事实并非如此,但该效应却因此得名)。一项针对董事会解雇首席执行官的研究表明,否认负面现实是首席执行官遭到解雇的首要原因,有23%受访董事会成员选择该选项。

在重返办公室这一问题上,要克服正常化偏见、计划谬误和鸵鸟效应,我们需要依靠经过研究证明的最佳实践。而对于大多数员工而言,所谓最佳实践就是“混合工作模式”:每周在办公室工作一两天,有需要时则可以轻松转为全职远程工作。如果有相当一部分员工愿意全职远程工作,并且能够高效完成任务,那么何乐而不为呢?

借助这种最佳实践,那些最适合在办公室办公的员工可以最大化受益于办公室协作优势,同时还能留住那些将因无法全职远程工作选择离职的顶尖人才,并创建相应的公司文化、体系和流程,让所有员工都能在需要时全职开展远程工作。(财富中文网)

格列布•齐普斯基是前瞻规划(future-proofing)和认知偏差风险管理领域的思想领袖,目前在前瞻规划咨询公司——风险规避专家(Disaster Avoidance Experts)担任首席执行官,著有《重返办公室领导混合式远程团队:借助最佳实践获取竞争优势的基准手册》(Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams: A Manual on Benchmarking to Best Practices for Competitive Advantage)等畅销读物。

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

With vaccine effectiveness against the coronavirus Delta variant dropping to 39%, according to a new report from Israel, it’s pure folly to pursue a normal office return. Make no mistake about the danger: The Delta surge is forecast to grow much worse in the next few months. Indeed, the CDC is considering asking vaccinated people to wear masks indoors and moving toward recommending booster shots.

Yet many large companies and midsize firms, along with the federal government, are forcing employees who successfully worked from home during the height of the pandemic to return to the office. Over a third have already returned and most of the rest are slated to return by the end of summer or early-to-mid-fall, when schools will reopen and Delta cases will soar.

Why are the federal government and household-name companies—Apple, Xerox, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, American International Group, and Abbott Laboratories—putting the health of their employees at serious risk? And why are they practically guaranteeing mass employee flight as part of the Great Resignation prompted by pressure to return to the office?

After all, in-depth surveys of employee preferences on returning to the office—even before the Delta surge—show that about half are willing to quit if not given their preferred work arrangements. The surveys reveal that a quarter to a third of employees want full-time remote work, while over half want a hybrid schedule of a day or two in the office.

Many have already quit due to employer plans to force them back to the office. Fears over the Delta surge will undoubtedly prompt even more to quit rather than risk their health due to breakthrough infections.

The reason that so many large employers fail to listen to the concerns of employees, whether about their work preferences or their health, stems from the wishful thinking of dangerous judgment errors called cognitive biases. These mental blindspots lead to poor strategic and financial decision-making when evaluating options. They cause leaders to go with their gut and follow their personal preferences instead of relying on best practices for returning to the office.

The biggest threat in underestimating the Delta surge comes from the normalcy bias. This dangerous judgment error leads us to underestimate the likelihood and impact of disruptive events.

Consider that we already had clear evidence of U.S. COVID-19 cases caused by Delta beginning to surge in early June. We also had clear evidence already in May of a Delta-caused explosion of cases in countries with higher rates of vaccination than in the U.S., such as the U.K. and Israel.

Big employers pride themselves on making data-driven decisions. They have the data: It is right under their noses. And they don’t have the excuse of not knowing about the danger of an explosive growth in COVID cases. Yet despite the clear and present danger of Delta, they’re insisting on forcing their employees back to the office.

Another major mental blind spot at play, the planning fallacy, causes leaders to make overly optimistic plans and refuse to change them despite new evidence showing their folly. After all, changing your plans implies that you got them wrong in the first place. Weak leaders frequently refuse to admit they are mistaken and to acknowledge the need to change their plans. By contrast, strong leaders show the courage of changing their minds when new evidence shows a need to pivot.

Fortunately, a small number of companies are showing the courage to revise their plans. Yet many of these revisions are Band-Aids rather than true pivots.

Apple, for instance, delayed the return to the office from September to October. Yet this one-month delay shows that Apple just doesn't get it. Not only is the Delta variant slated to peak in October, but there’s a bigger issue at hand.

Apple and the other large employers forcing employees back to the office need to face the reality that vaccine immunity wanes in a few months. At the same time, new variants are emerging, such as Delta Plus, which might be even worse than Delta.

Delta is a short-term issue with a long-term tail of multiple, similar scenarios. Not facing this patently obvious unpleasant reality stems from a cognitive bias scholars call the ostrich effect, after the mythical notion that ostriches bury their heads in the sand when facing danger. Research suggests that denying negative reality is a top cause of CEOs getting fired, cited by 23% of members of boards of directors that terminated their CEOs.

Overcoming normalcy bias, planning fallacy, and the ostrich effect in the return to the office requires relying on research-based best practices. That means a mainly hybrid model of a day or two in the office for most employees, who should be able to move easily to full-time remote work when needed. A substantial minority of employees should work full-time remotely, if they wish to do so and demonstrate effectiveness.

This best-practice setup maximizes the benefits of in-office collaboration for those employees who benefit from it most while retaining top talent that would leave if not permitted full-time remote work, and creates a company culture, systems, and processes that facilitate full-time remote work when needed for all employees.

Gleb Tsipursky is a thought leader in future-proofing and cognitive bias risk management, serves as CEO of the future-proofing consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts, and is a best-selling author of several books, including Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams: A Manual on Benchmarking to Best Practices for Competitive Advantage.

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