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从最新人事变化,看懂拜登的经济和对华政策

从最新人事变化,看懂拜登的经济和对华政策

Geoff Colvin, Clay Chandler 2021年02月04日
在实现控制白宫和国会两院后,是拜登及其团队、政党上场的时候了。

现年42岁的国家经济委员会主任布莱恩•迪斯。图片来源:CNP/彭博社/盖蒂图片社——肯•森登诺

华盛顿有一句名言:“人事任命即政策”,每届新政府成立之初都会以此为行动准则。确实如此;只有知道政策由谁来制定以及由谁来执行,才能真正理解政策本身。

我们不妨从拜登的人事任命中,一窥拜登的经济政策和对华政策——两个最受关注的问题。

【经济团队】

拜登总统的经济团队虽然尚未组建完成,但已体现了当今民主党的主要力量。美国企业研究所驻华盛顿经济学家兼哈佛大学经济学讲师斯坦•维格表示:“团队成员来自多个派系,既有民主党中间派人士,也有左派人士。”

除了财政部长珍妮特•耶伦之外,拜登经济团队还有另外一些顶尖重量级成员。

国家经济委员会主任布莱恩•迪斯

现年只有42岁的迪斯并不是专业经济学家,但他曾在奥巴马政府期间担任管理与预算办公室副主任和国家经济委员会副主任,负责管理总统的经济决策过程。

布鲁金斯学会会员大卫•韦塞尔说:“白宫越强势,会议、简报编纂者及汇报者的权力就越大。我想他就是那个人。”

经济顾问委员会成员贾里德•伯恩斯坦

伯恩斯坦的实际权力远超其职权范围。他的级别并没有高于其他经济顾问委员会成员,但他与拜登的关系一直非常密切,他已成为拜登政府内最有影响力的人物之一。在奥巴马执政期间,他曾是时任副总统拜登的首席经济学家。伯恩斯坦无疑是偏左派人士,但并不会被伯尼•桑德斯边缘化。

消费者金融保护局局长罗希特•乔普拉*

加强对金融服务业监管力度是拜登政府的一个重要趋势。

美国财政部长珍妮特•耶伦表示,她认为《多德-弗兰克法案》还不够有力,而透过乔普拉的过往表现,我们可以预见他将是一个强势监管者。

在消费者金融保护局成立初期曾与乔普拉共事的律师露西•莫里斯表示:“我预计,乔普拉至少会像前任局长理查德•科德雷一样强势,甚至会更胜一筹。”这一前景可能会让华尔街高管们后背发凉。

自2018年5月以来,乔普拉一直在联邦贸易委员会任职。*待参议院确认

截至本文撰稿时,其他高管职位尚无合适人选,但无论谁接任,都将在执行拜登的经济政策中发挥重要作用。其中最重要的两个职位是:

反垄断部门助理总检察长

特朗普司法部在反垄断问题上的表现,比多数人对共和党总统任期内的预期更为积极。拜登政府可能会更加积极。

作为候选人的拜登曾说,科技巨头的权力太大,这一观点得到了两党的共同支持。特朗普司法部去年与14个州,包括红蓝两派,对谷歌提起反垄断诉讼。

拜登提名的反垄断部门负责人,将预示硅谷(或许还有其他一些行业)会面临什么样的未来。

货币主计长

这一职位虽然不显眼,但对于国家银行监管至关重要,包括摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行等大型银行。如果像多数人预期的那样,加强金融监管将是拜登政府的首要任务,那么出任这一职位的人将非常有影响力。

至于拜登经济团队将要执行的政策:从其最高层面来看,部分源于当前形势,部分源于其内心深处共同坚定的信念。

目前最重要的是如何应对新冠疫情。维格说,“如果伊丽莎白•沃伦或伯尼•桑德斯当选总统,他们的首要任务仍是应对新冠疫情。”

除新冠疫情之外,该团队需优先解决的其他问题还有基础设施、气候、不平等和增税。

韦塞尔说,拜登和他的团队将会推行一项积极的议程,他们认为,如今形成的超低利率(通胀后为负值) “提供了一个巨额的公共投资机会,这种机会千载难逢,能推动下一代人的生活水平的提高。”

这种观点与推进整体经济更加广泛且深入的观点相契合。

韦塞尔说,“如果让拜登政府的全部经济团队成员聚在一起,向他们提出如下问题,‘你们认为大力投资学前教育,并援助幼儿和低收入家庭,是否既能增加他们进入中产阶级的机会,还能推动美国生产力的增长?’我想他们会说‘是的’。”

在实现控制白宫和国会两院后,新任总统拜登、他的团队及其政党现在终于有机会来检验这一信念。

【对中国的态度】

就如何与中国打交道这一关键问题,拜登曾暗示,他不急于背离特朗普政府的政策。

值得注意的是,在拜登发起的“十日政令闪电战”中,根本没有提及撤销特朗普对3500亿美元中国商品加征关税的计划。对于推翻特朗普政府诸多对华制裁措施,包括将中国三家电信公司从纽约证券交易所停牌除名、封禁中国APP,以及将中国科技公司列入黑名单,拜登也没有表现出兴趣。

拜登的助手表示,对于涉及中国的许多问题,新总统计划采用多边方式,争取西方盟友的支持。这将与特朗普的“美国优先”风格大相径庭。

然而与盟友达成共识需要时间。1月,随着拜登宣布其内阁和高级政策顾问成员名单,可以发现其新团队与即将离任的特朗普官员两者的对华言论是何其相似。

财政部长

财政部长提名人选珍妮特•耶伦曾指中国“设置贸易壁垒,向企业提供非法补贴”和“窃取知识产权”,并指责中国的低“劳动和环境标准”。虽然她没有特别指明中国操纵汇率,但这位前美联储主席承诺“反对他国人为操纵汇率以获得不公平贸易优势的任何企图”。

国家安全委员会“印太事务协调员”

拜登的其他任命也凸显了新总统愿意效仿特朗普的对话态度。库尔特•坎贝尔被任命为国家安全委员会“印太事务协调员”。坎贝尔曾在奥巴马任内担任国务院负责亚洲事务的最高官员,被认为是“重返亚洲”战略的设计者。该战略呼吁对中国采取强硬立场,同时加强美国在该地区其他国家的军事资源和外交关系。

2018年,坎贝尔与拜登前助手伊利•拉特纳合著的一篇题为《清算中国》的文章,在文中,他对特朗普所谓的美国40年对华接触政策失败的论调表示了赞同。

美国贸易代表

前特朗普政府官员对拜登选择华裔女律师戴琦担任美国贸易代表一职也表示了欢迎。戴琦会说普通话,父母来自中国台湾。在奥巴马政府时期,戴琦曾担任对华贸易执法首席律师,2017年以来,戴琦一直是众议院筹款委员会的首席贸易顾问。两党贸易专家都把她描述为一个谈判者,在对华贸易问题上,她与即将离任的“美国贸易沙皇”罗伯特•莱特希泽(特朗普最激进的贸易鹰派人物之一)有着相同的看法。

中国是否会认为拜登的对华鹰派比与特朗普的对华鹰派更容易接触,目前尚不清楚。

不过,黑石集团主席苏世民上个月在香港的一个金融论坛上发言时表示,新一届美国政府将对中国采取“更温和基调”,他预计两国之间的紧张局势将有所缓和。

“这两个国家的利益和世界的利益确实有着非常大的重叠,”苏世民说,“我预计紧张关系会大大缓解。”

美中贸易全国委员会在上个月呼吁拜登政府削减特朗普的对华关税,并“制定一个更加细致、更加有效的对华贸易政策”。该委员会代表着230多家在华经营的大型美国公司,其援引牛津经济研究院的研究结果称,到2025年,如果中美两国将平均关税从目前的19% 逐步降至12% ,美国的GDP将会增加1690亿美元,同时将新增14.5万个就业岗位。

但拜登已经表示不会立即降低关税。助手们说,总统打算先对中美关系做全方位审视,再决定是否对特朗普政策进行保留、修改或废除。

华盛顿战略与国际研究中心高级顾问斯科特•肯尼迪敦促拜登将特朗普的对华政策遗产分为四类:美国无需与盟友讨论就能改变的政策(如重返《巴黎协定》和世卫组织);可以通过与中国对话解决的冲突政策(例如重新评估TikTok禁令);美国应该坚持的问题政策(包括将不遵守美国信息披露规则的中国公司摘牌除名);美国应该与盟友协调决定的问题政策(例如,如何处理对国家安全构成潜在威胁的中国公司)。

肯尼迪写道:“在对华政策创新方面,拜登政府存在的机会比许多人预想的要大得多。”

而抓住这一机会的窗口期可能远不止拜执政后的头100天。(财富中文网)

翻译:郝秀、梁宇

审校:汪皓、夏林

华盛顿有一句名言:“人事任命即政策”,每届新政府成立之初都会以此为行动准则。确实如此;只有知道政策由谁来制定以及由谁来执行,才能真正理解政策本身。

我们不妨从拜登的人事任命中,一窥拜登的经济政策和对华政策——两个最受关注的问题。

【经济团队】

拜登总统的经济团队虽然尚未组建完成,但已体现了当今民主党的主要力量。美国企业研究所驻华盛顿经济学家兼哈佛大学经济学讲师斯坦•维格表示:“团队成员来自多个派系,既有民主党中间派人士,也有左派人士。”

除了财政部长珍妮特•耶伦之外,拜登经济团队还有另外一些顶尖重量级成员。

国家经济委员会主任布莱恩•迪斯

现年只有42岁的迪斯并不是专业经济学家,但他曾在奥巴马政府期间担任管理与预算办公室副主任和国家经济委员会副主任,负责管理总统的经济决策过程。

布鲁金斯学会会员大卫•韦塞尔说:“白宫越强势,会议、简报编纂者及汇报者的权力就越大。我想他就是那个人。”

经济顾问委员会成员贾里德•伯恩斯坦

伯恩斯坦的实际权力远超其职权范围。他的级别并没有高于其他经济顾问委员会成员,但他与拜登的关系一直非常密切,他已成为拜登政府内最有影响力的人物之一。在奥巴马执政期间,他曾是时任副总统拜登的首席经济学家。伯恩斯坦无疑是偏左派人士,但并不会被伯尼•桑德斯边缘化。

消费者金融保护局局长罗希特•乔普拉*

加强对金融服务业监管力度是拜登政府的一个重要趋势。

美国财政部长珍妮特•耶伦表示,她认为《多德-弗兰克法案》还不够有力,而透过乔普拉的过往表现,我们可以预见他将是一个强势监管者。

在消费者金融保护局成立初期曾与乔普拉共事的律师露西•莫里斯表示:“我预计,乔普拉至少会像前任局长理查德•科德雷一样强势,甚至会更胜一筹。”这一前景可能会让华尔街高管们后背发凉。

自2018年5月以来,乔普拉一直在联邦贸易委员会任职。*待参议院确认

截至本文撰稿时,其他高管职位尚无合适人选,但无论谁接任,都将在执行拜登的经济政策中发挥重要作用。其中最重要的两个职位是:

反垄断部门助理总检察长

特朗普司法部在反垄断问题上的表现,比多数人对共和党总统任期内的预期更为积极。拜登政府可能会更加积极。

作为候选人的拜登曾说,科技巨头的权力太大,这一观点得到了两党的共同支持。特朗普司法部去年与14个州,包括红蓝两派,对谷歌提起反垄断诉讼。

拜登提名的反垄断部门负责人,将预示硅谷(或许还有其他一些行业)会面临什么样的未来。

货币主计长

这一职位虽然不显眼,但对于国家银行监管至关重要,包括摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行等大型银行。如果像多数人预期的那样,加强金融监管将是拜登政府的首要任务,那么出任这一职位的人将非常有影响力。

至于拜登经济团队将要执行的政策:从其最高层面来看,部分源于当前形势,部分源于其内心深处共同坚定的信念。

目前最重要的是如何应对新冠疫情。维格说,“如果伊丽莎白•沃伦或伯尼•桑德斯当选总统,他们的首要任务仍是应对新冠疫情。”

除新冠疫情之外,该团队需优先解决的其他问题还有基础设施、气候、不平等和增税。

韦塞尔说,拜登和他的团队将会推行一项积极的议程,他们认为,如今形成的超低利率(通胀后为负值) “提供了一个巨额的公共投资机会,这种机会千载难逢,能推动下一代人的生活水平的提高。”

这种观点与推进整体经济更加广泛且深入的观点相契合。

韦塞尔说,“如果让拜登政府的全部经济团队成员聚在一起,向他们提出如下问题,‘你们认为大力投资学前教育,并援助幼儿和低收入家庭,是否既能增加他们进入中产阶级的机会,还能推动美国生产力的增长?’我想他们会说‘是的’。”

在实现控制白宫和国会两院后,新任总统拜登、他的团队及其政党现在终于有机会来检验这一信念。

【对中国的态度】

就如何与中国打交道这一关键问题,拜登曾暗示,他不急于背离特朗普政府的政策。

值得注意的是,在拜登发起的“十日政令闪电战”中,根本没有提及撤销特朗普对3500亿美元中国商品加征关税的计划。对于推翻特朗普政府诸多对华制裁措施,包括将中国三家电信公司从纽约证券交易所停牌除名、封禁中国APP,以及将中国科技公司列入黑名单,拜登也没有表现出兴趣。

拜登的助手表示,对于涉及中国的许多问题,新总统计划采用多边方式,争取西方盟友的支持。这将与特朗普的“美国优先”风格大相径庭。

然而与盟友达成共识需要时间。1月,随着拜登宣布其内阁和高级政策顾问成员名单,可以发现其新团队与即将离任的特朗普官员两者的对华言论是何其相似。

财政部长

财政部长提名人选珍妮特•耶伦曾指中国“设置贸易壁垒,向企业提供非法补贴”和“窃取知识产权”,并指责中国的低“劳动和环境标准”。虽然她没有特别指明中国操纵汇率,但这位前美联储主席承诺“反对他国人为操纵汇率以获得不公平贸易优势的任何企图”。

国家安全委员会“印太事务协调员”

拜登的其他任命也凸显了新总统愿意效仿特朗普的对话态度。库尔特•坎贝尔被任命为国家安全委员会“印太事务协调员”。坎贝尔曾在奥巴马任内担任国务院负责亚洲事务的最高官员,被认为是“重返亚洲”战略的设计者。该战略呼吁对中国采取强硬立场,同时加强美国在该地区其他国家的军事资源和外交关系。

2018年,坎贝尔与拜登前助手伊利•拉特纳合著的一篇题为《清算中国》的文章,在文中,他对特朗普所谓的美国40年对华接触政策失败的论调表示了赞同。

美国贸易代表

前特朗普政府官员对拜登选择华裔女律师戴琦担任美国贸易代表一职也表示了欢迎。戴琦会说普通话,父母来自中国台湾。在奥巴马政府时期,戴琦曾担任对华贸易执法首席律师,2017年以来,戴琦一直是众议院筹款委员会的首席贸易顾问。两党贸易专家都把她描述为一个谈判者,在对华贸易问题上,她与即将离任的“美国贸易沙皇”罗伯特•莱特希泽(特朗普最激进的贸易鹰派人物之一)有着相同的看法。

中国是否会认为拜登的对华鹰派比与特朗普的对华鹰派更容易接触,目前尚不清楚。

不过,黑石集团主席苏世民上个月在香港的一个金融论坛上发言时表示,新一届美国政府将对中国采取“更温和基调”,他预计两国之间的紧张局势将有所缓和。

“这两个国家的利益和世界的利益确实有着非常大的重叠,”苏世民说,“我预计紧张关系会大大缓解。”

美中贸易全国委员会在上个月呼吁拜登政府削减特朗普的对华关税,并“制定一个更加细致、更加有效的对华贸易政策”。该委员会代表着230多家在华经营的大型美国公司,其援引牛津经济研究院的研究结果称,到2025年,如果中美两国将平均关税从目前的19% 逐步降至12% ,美国的GDP将会增加1690亿美元,同时将新增14.5万个就业岗位。

但拜登已经表示不会立即降低关税。助手们说,总统打算先对中美关系做全方位审视,再决定是否对特朗普政策进行保留、修改或废除。

华盛顿战略与国际研究中心高级顾问斯科特•肯尼迪敦促拜登将特朗普的对华政策遗产分为四类:美国无需与盟友讨论就能改变的政策(如重返《巴黎协定》和世卫组织);可以通过与中国对话解决的冲突政策(例如重新评估TikTok禁令);美国应该坚持的问题政策(包括将不遵守美国信息披露规则的中国公司摘牌除名);美国应该与盟友协调决定的问题政策(例如,如何处理对国家安全构成潜在威胁的中国公司)。

肯尼迪写道:“在对华政策创新方面,拜登政府存在的机会比许多人预想的要大得多。”

而抓住这一机会的窗口期可能远不止拜执政后的头100天。(财富中文网)

翻译:郝秀、梁宇

审校:汪皓、夏林

“Personnel is policy,” says a Washington maxim invoked at the dawn of each new administration. The point is valid; you don’t really understand policy until you know who’s creating it and executing it. President Biden’s economic team, still being assembled, reflects the forces shaping today’s Democratic Party. “The staffing really runs the gamut from very centrist Democrats to people who come much more from the left,” says Stan Veuger, a Washington-based economist at the American Enterprise Institute and an economics lecturer at Harvard. In addition to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, here are top power players on Biden’s economic team.

Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council

Just 42, and not a trained economist, Deese nonetheless held high-level economic posts throughout the Obama administration, including deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget and deputy director of the National Economic Council, which manages the President’s economic decision process. “If you have a strong White House, the person who organizes the meetings, the presentations, and what will be presented to the President has a lot of power,” says the Brookings Institution’s David Wessel. “I think he will be that person.”

Jared Bernstein, member of the Council of Economic Advisers

Bernstein’s power is greater than his title suggests. He won’t outrank other CEA members, but he’s already one of the administration’s most influential figures because of his long and close relationship with Biden. In the Obama administration he was chief economist to then–Vice President Biden. Bernstein is decidedly left of center but not over on the Bernie Sanders fringe.

Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau*

Amped up regulation of the financial services industry looks to be a significant trend in the Biden administration. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said she thinks the Dodd-Frank law doesn’t go far enough, and Chopra’s record suggests he’ll be an energetic regulator. Attorney Lucy Morris, who served with Chopra at the CFPB in its early days, writes, “I anticipate that he will be at least as aggressive as former director [Richard] Cordray, if not more,” a prospect that may chill the blood of Wall Street executives. Since May 2018 Chopra has been on the Federal Trade Commission. *pending Senate confirmation

Other top power positions haven’t been filled as of this writing, but whoever takes them will play important roles in executing Biden’s economic policies. Two of the most important:

Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust

The Trump Justice Department was more active on antitrust than many would have expected under a Republican President. The Biden administration could be even more active. Candidate Biden said the tech giants wield too much power, a view with bipartisan support. The Trump DOJ last year sued Google on antitrust grounds, joined by 14 states, both red and blue. Biden’s choice of an antitrust chief will signal what’s ahead for Silicon Valley and potentially other industries.

Comptroller of the Currency

A low-profile post, it’s crucially important in the regulation of national banks, including the biggest ones: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. If increased financial regulation becomes a Biden priority, as many expect, the holder of this job will be highly influential.

As for the policy that the Biden economic team will be executing: At its highest level, it’s driven partly by the circumstances of the moment and partly by shared deep beliefs. The most immediate imperative, managing the pandemic crisis, is more about competence than ideology. “If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders had become President, they would still have to deal first and foremost with just crisis management,” says Veuger. Beyond the pandemic, the issues at the top of the team’s to-do list are infrastructure, climate, inequality, and raising taxes. Biden and the team will pursue an activist agenda based on their view that today’s ultralow interest rates—negative after inflation—present “a once-in-a-generation opportunity to make huge public investments that will pay off in higher living standards for the next generation,” says Wessel.

That view fits well with a broader, deeper view of how to strengthen the overall economy. Wessel says, “If you got all the economic team of the Biden administration in a room and asked them, ‘Do you think that investments in pre-K education and more aid for young children and low-income families can increase not only their prospects of moving into the middle class, but can also increase the productivity growth of the United States?’ I think they would say yes.”

Having hit the trifecta of controlling the White House plus both houses of Congress, Biden, his team, and their party now have a rare opportunity to test that belief.

In one key area—dealing with China—Biden has signaled he's in no rush to depart from the Trump administration policies.

Orders to rescind Trump tariffs on $350 billion worth of Chinese imports are conspicuously absent from Biden's ten-day policy blitz. Nor has Biden suggested any immediate interest in overturning Trump administration actions to delist Chinese telecommunications companies on the New York Stock Exchange, or ban Chinese apps, or blacklist Chinese technology companies.

Biden's aides have said that, for many problems involving China, the incoming president plans to take a multilateral approach by enlisting the support of Western allies to maximize U.S. leverage on Beijing. That would be a clear departure from Trump's "America First" style.

But building that consensus will take time. And in recent days, as Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.

Yellen also accused China of "erecting trade barriers and giving illegal subsidies to corporations" and "stealing intellectual property," and faulted its inadequate "labor and environmental standards." And while she didn't specifically accuse China of currency manipulation, the former Federal Reserve chair promised to "oppose any and all attempts by foreign countries to artificially manipulate currency values to gain advantage in trade."

Other Biden appointments underscore the new president's willingness to emulate Trump's confrontational approach to China. Biden has picked former Obama state department official Kurt Campbell to take on a newly created role within his National Security Council as "Indo-Pacific coordinator." Campbell was the architect of the Obama administration's 2012 "pivot to Asia" strategy, which called for taking a tough line on China while bolstering U.S. military resources and diplomatic relationships in the rest of the region.

In a 2018 essay entitled "The China Reckoning" and co-authored with former Biden aide Ely Ratner, Campbell argued that Trump was right to decry America's four-decades-long policy of engagement with China as a failure.

Former Trump officials also have hailed Biden's choice of Katherine Tai to lead the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Tai, a native Mandarin speaker whose parents immigrated to the U.S. from Taiwan, served as America's chief enforcement lawyer for China during the Obama Administration and has been chief trade counsel on the House Ways and Means Committee since 2017. She has been described by trade experts on both sides of the partisan aisle as a negotiator whose views on Chinese trade practices match those of outgoing trade czar Robert Lighthizer, one of Trump's most vehement trade hawks.

Whether Beijing will find it easier to engage with Biden's China hawks than Trump's China hawks remains unclear.

Blackstone Group chairman Stephen Schwarzman, speaking before a financial forum in Hong Kong Tuesday, predicted the new U.S. administration would take a “softer tone” towards China, and that he expects tensions between the two countries to ease.

“There is really a very substantial overlap of interest in these countries and the interest of the world,” Schwarzman said. “I expect to see much less tension.”

The U.S.-China Business Council, a group representing more than 230 large American companies operating in China, last week called on the Biden administration to roll back Trump's tariffs and "craft a more nuanced and effective trade policy toward China." The group, citing findings of research by Oxford Economics, said that gradually scaling back tariffs to 12% from the current 19% would produce an additional $169 billion in U.S. GDP and create 145,000 additional American jobs by 2025.

But Biden has ruled out reducing the tariffs right away. Aides have said he intends to review all aspects of the U.S.-China relationship deliberately before deciding which Trump policies to keep, modify or scrap.

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, urges sorting the China policies Biden will inherit from Trump into four categories: those the U.S. can change without discussing with allies (such as rejoining the Paris Accord and World Health Organization); conflicts it can resolve through dialog with China (such as approving visas for journalists or reassessing the TikTok ban); issues on which the U.S. should hold firm (including placing sanctions on Hong Kong and delisting Chinese companies who won't comply with U.S. disclosure rules); and matters U.S. should decide in coordination with U.S. allies (such as how to deal with Chinese companies that pose a potential threat to national security).

"The Biden administration," Kennedy wrote, "has a greater opportunity for policy innovation on China than many appreciate."

Capitalizing on that opportunity may take more than Biden's first 100 days.

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