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2020年谁能成为美国总统?这回不是“经济”说了算

2020年谁能成为美国总统?这回不是“经济”说了算

Nicole Goodkind  2020年07月31日
“疫情防控与公共卫生”已经取代“经济态势”成为选民们的第一考量因素。

事实证明,选民们最关注的,并非只有经济。

从以往情况来看,只要提到美国大选,选民们心中的第一把标尺必然是经济发展态势。但根据《财富》7月17日至21日对2,802名美国成年人在SurveyMonkey上展开的调查,在本次2020年大选中,“疫情防控与公共卫生”已经取代“经济态势”成为选民们的第一考量因素。

调查发现,37%的选民(不限党派)最在乎当下疫情的防治情况,其次才是经济。两者之间的差距甚至已达到13个百分点。

除此以外,种族关系的处理问题也备受瞩目,有15%的人将其排在第一位。在这部分人群当中,有25%是18-34岁的青年人,30%是黑人。显然,这两大群体都是民主党候选人乔•拜登的支持者。另一边,根据YouGov的调查显示,有52%的选民都认为特朗普是种族主义者。

如此种种对于特朗普而言,都是坏消息。一直以来,他都在民调中落后于拜登。(不过,民调只是一个瞬间的快照,并不能预测选举结果。)

值得注意的是,虽然拜登在最近的民调中经常以两位数领先,但在经济问题上,特朗普的支持率依旧未减。《财富》调查发现,认为“特朗普能够帮助美国恢复经济”的选民和认为“拜登能够帮助美国恢复经济”的选民各占一半,两者在这一点上势均力敌。当然,投票结果也和选民的政治立场密切相关,可以看到,多数无党派人士还是更支持拜登。

事实上,特朗普的日子并不好过。本周四,美联储宣布,从4月到6月,美国国内生产总值折合成年率环比萎缩了32.9%,惨遭自1947年政府干预经济以来最大降幅。

然而,特朗普却并没有对经济下滑做出回应。他只在推特中强调了邮寄选票的不合理性,并扬言暗示要推迟11月3日的大选,即便他并没有这样做的权利。无论有意还是无意,特朗普此举大有一点“王顾左右而言他”的意味,似乎是想借此转移民众对于经济话题的注意力。(财富中文网)

*注:该项调查由《财富》在7月17日至21日期间在SurveyMonkey网站上发起,调研对象为全美2802名成年人,模型误差约为±3个百分点。调研对象的年龄、种族、性别、教育及地理因素也被纳入了分析范围之内。

编译:陈怡轩

事实证明,选民们最关注的,并非只有经济。

从以往情况来看,只要提到美国大选,选民们心中的第一把标尺必然是经济发展态势。但根据《财富》7月17日至21日对2,802名美国成年人在SurveyMonkey上展开的调查,在本次2020年大选中,“疫情防控与公共卫生”已经取代“经济态势”成为选民们的第一考量因素。

调查发现,37%的选民(不限党派)最在乎当下疫情的防治情况,其次才是经济。两者之间的差距甚至已达到13个百分点。

除此以外,种族关系的处理问题也备受瞩目,有15%的人将其排在第一位。在这部分人群当中,有25%是18-34岁的青年人,30%是黑人。显然,这两大群体都是民主党候选人乔•拜登的支持者。另一边,根据YouGov的调查显示,有52%的选民都认为特朗普是种族主义者。

如此种种对于特朗普而言,都是坏消息。一直以来,他都在民调中落后于拜登。(不过,民调只是一个瞬间的快照,并不能预测选举结果。)

值得注意的是,虽然拜登在最近的民调中经常以两位数领先,但在经济问题上,特朗普的支持率依旧未减。《财富》调查发现,认为“特朗普能够帮助美国恢复经济”的选民和认为“拜登能够帮助美国恢复经济”的选民各占一半,两者在这一点上势均力敌。当然,投票结果也和选民的政治立场密切相关,可以看到,多数无党派人士还是更支持拜登。

事实上,特朗普的日子并不好过。本周四,美联储宣布,从4月到6月,美国国内生产总值折合成年率环比萎缩了32.9%,惨遭自1947年政府干预经济以来最大降幅。

然而,特朗普却并没有对经济下滑做出回应。他只在推特中强调了邮寄选票的不合理性,并扬言暗示要推迟11月3日的大选,即便他并没有这样做的权利。无论有意还是无意,特朗普此举大有一点“王顾左右而言他”的意味,似乎是想借此转移民众对于经济话题的注意力。(财富中文网)

*注:该项调查由《财富》在7月17日至21日期间在SurveyMonkey网站上发起,调研对象为全美2802名成年人,模型误差约为±3个百分点。调研对象的年龄、种族、性别、教育及地理因素也被纳入了分析范围之内。

编译:陈怡轩

It’s not always the economy, after all.

In prior elections, fears about the economy have always been top of mind for Americans heading to the polls. But voters say that their top political concern heading into the 2020 election are the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and public health, according to data from a Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll of 2,802 U.S. adults between July 17 and 21.

The survey found that 37% of people say the coronavirus pandemic would be the number one issue on their minds if they went to the polls today. The economy took the number two slot, but virus fears beat economic worries by a longshot with a 13-point spread between the two.

Race relations and racism were also of high concern to voters with 15% of all voters saying it occupied their top spot. Fortune-SurveyMonkey polling found that while 15% of respondents said race relations and racism was the number one issue on their mind going into the presidential elections, that number jumped to 25% for those between the ages of 18-34 and to 30% for black voters, two demographic groups that Biden is hoping to win over. Nearly 52% of voters believe that Trump is racist, according to a recent YouGov poll.

The results spell potential bad news for President Donald Trump, who has been polling behind presumed-Democratic nominee Joe Biden. (Remember that head-to-head polls are just snapshots of a moment and not forecasts of election outcomes).

But regardless of his often double-digit lead in recent presidential polls, Biden hasn’t been able to dent the President’s favorability rating when it comes to the economy. Fortune’s most recent poll found that Biden and Trump were in a dead heat, about half of voters thought each candidate would do a better job repairing the U.S. economy. While the votes fell largely along party lines, more Independents favored Biden.

The President’s economic numbers may soon experience a shortfall as well. Gross domestic product (GDP) sank by an annual rate of 32.9% from April to June, the Feds announced on Thursday—the largest drop since the government started tracking in 1947.

The President replied to the news by falsely claiming that mail-in-voting is inaccurate and fraudulent and by suggesting a delay in the November 3rd presidential election, something he has does not have the legal authority to institute. Whether purposeful or not, the sensational tweet appeared as an attempt to distract from conversation around the economy.

*Methodology: The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll was conducted among a national sample of 2,802 adults in the U.S. between July 17–21. This survey’s modeled error estimate is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The findings have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography.

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