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AI教父:科技巨头对AI的万亿投资将打水漂,除非能替代人工

Jason Ma
2025-11-05

杰弗里·辛顿不确定AI是否能大量替代人工。

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2023年6月28日,杰弗里・辛顿在加拿大多伦多出席“碰撞2023”大会第二天的活动。图片来源:Ramsey Cardy—Sportsfile for Collision via Getty Images

计算机科学家、诺贝尔奖得主杰弗里・辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton)近日再度强调了他关于AI将如何影响劳动力市场以及领军企业所扮演角色的观点。

在上周五接受彭博电视台《华尔街一周》(Wall Street Week)节目采访时,他表示,从AI投资中获利的最直接途径,除了对使用聊天机器人收费外,就是能更廉价地取代工人。

辛顿的研究为他赢得了诺贝尔奖和“AI教父”的称号。他补充说,尽管一些经济学家指出以往的颠覆性技术在摧毁旧岗位的同时也创造了新岗位,但他不确定AI是否会如此。

“我认为大企业正押注于AI将导致大规模岗位替代,因为巨额资金将流向那里,”他警告道。

据彭博社报道,仅四家所谓的“AI超大规模企业”——微软(Microsoft)、Meta、Alphabet和亚马逊(Amazon)——下一财年的资本支出预计将从今年的3600亿美元增至4200亿美元。

与此同时,仅OpenAI一家公司在最近几周就宣布与英伟达(Nvidia)、博通(Broadcom)和甲骨文(Oracle)等AI生态圈公司达成了总额1万亿美元的基础设施协议。

当被问及这类投资能否在不摧毁工作岗位的情况下获得回报时,辛顿回答:“我认为不能。我相信要赚钱就必须取代人类劳动力。”

此番言论与他九月份的说法如出一辙,当时他告诉《金融时报》(Financial Times),AI将“造成大规模失业和利润激增”,并将其归因于资本主义制度。

事实上,越来越多的证据表明AI正在减少就业机会,尤其是在入门级岗位。对OpenAI推出ChatGPT以来职位空缺的分析显示,空缺数量[骤降了约30%]。

就在过去一周,亚马逊(Amazon)宣布裁员1.4万人,主要涉及中层管理人员。尽管首席执行官安迪・贾西(Andy Jassy)表示该决定是由于'文化'而非AI,但他在六月份发送的一份备忘录中预测,公司员工规模将会缩小,“因为我们在全公司广泛使用AI带来了效率提升。”

尽管对劳动者存在潜在负面影响,辛顿也看到了AI带来的益处。当被问及是否会回到过去阻止AI发展时,他停顿了一下,表示自己不知道。

“它不像核武器,核武器只会带来坏处,”他解释道。“这是个艰难的决定,因为它在医疗保健和教育领域能带来巨大益处。它确实会带来巨大益处,事实上,如果你考虑到它能在众多行业提高生产力,这应该是件好事。”

辛顿补充道,问题最终不在于AI本身,而在于“我们如何组织社会”。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

审校:梁宇

计算机科学家、诺贝尔奖得主杰弗里・辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton)近日再度强调了他关于AI将如何影响劳动力市场以及领军企业所扮演角色的观点。

在上周五接受彭博电视台《华尔街一周》(Wall Street Week)节目采访时,他表示,从AI投资中获利的最直接途径,除了对使用聊天机器人收费外,就是能更廉价地取代工人。

辛顿的研究为他赢得了诺贝尔奖和“AI教父”的称号。他补充说,尽管一些经济学家指出以往的颠覆性技术在摧毁旧岗位的同时也创造了新岗位,但他不确定AI是否会如此。

“我认为大企业正押注于AI将导致大规模岗位替代,因为巨额资金将流向那里,”他警告道。

据彭博社报道,仅四家所谓的“AI超大规模企业”——微软(Microsoft)、Meta、Alphabet和亚马逊(Amazon)——下一财年的资本支出预计将从今年的3600亿美元增至4200亿美元。

与此同时,仅OpenAI一家公司在最近几周就宣布与英伟达(Nvidia)、博通(Broadcom)和甲骨文(Oracle)等AI生态圈公司达成了总额1万亿美元的基础设施协议。

当被问及这类投资能否在不摧毁工作岗位的情况下获得回报时,辛顿回答:“我认为不能。我相信要赚钱就必须取代人类劳动力。”

此番言论与他九月份的说法如出一辙,当时他告诉《金融时报》(Financial Times),AI将“造成大规模失业和利润激增”,并将其归因于资本主义制度。

事实上,越来越多的证据表明AI正在减少就业机会,尤其是在入门级岗位。对OpenAI推出ChatGPT以来职位空缺的分析显示,空缺数量[骤降了约30%]。

就在过去一周,亚马逊(Amazon)宣布裁员1.4万人,主要涉及中层管理人员。尽管首席执行官安迪・贾西(Andy Jassy)表示该决定是由于'文化'而非AI,但他在六月份发送的一份备忘录中预测,公司员工规模将会缩小,“因为我们在全公司广泛使用AI带来了效率提升。”

尽管对劳动者存在潜在负面影响,辛顿也看到了AI带来的益处。当被问及是否会回到过去阻止AI发展时,他停顿了一下,表示自己不知道。

“它不像核武器,核武器只会带来坏处,”他解释道。“这是个艰难的决定,因为它在医疗保健和教育领域能带来巨大益处。它确实会带来巨大益处,事实上,如果你考虑到它能在众多行业提高生产力,这应该是件好事。”

辛顿补充道,问题最终不在于AI本身,而在于“我们如何组织社会”。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

审校:梁宇

Computer scientist and Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton doubled down on his warnings about how artificial intelligence will affect the labor market and the role of companies leading the charge.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV's Wall Street Week on Friday, he said the obvious way to make money off AI investments, aside from charging fees to use chatbots, is to replace workers with something cheaper.

Hinton, whose work has earned him a Nobel Prize and the moniker “godfather of AI,” added that while some economists point out previous disruptive technologies created as well as destroyed jobs, it's not clear to him that AI will do the same.

“I think the big companies are betting on it causing massive job replacement by AI, because that's where the big money is going to be,” he warned.

Just four so-called AI hyperscalers—Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon—are expected to boost capital expenditures to $420 billion next fiscal year from $360 billion this year, according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, OpenAI alone has announced a total of $1 trillion in infrastructure deals in recent weeks with AI-ecosystem companies like Nvidia, Broadcom and Oracle.

When asked if such investments can pay off without destroying jobs, Hinton replied, “I believe that it can't. I believe that to make money you're going to have to replace human labor.”

The remarks echo what he said in September, when he told the Financial Times that AI will “create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits,” attributing it to the capitalist system.

In fact, evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially at the entry level, and an analysis of job openings since OpenAI launched ChatGPT shows they plummeted roughly 30%.

And this past week, Amazon announced 14,000 layoffs, largely in middle management. While CEO Andy Jassy said the decision was due to “culture” and not AI, a memo he sent in June predicted a smaller corporate workforce “as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company.”

Despite the potential downside for workers, Hinton also sees benefits from AI. When asked if he would go back in time and stop AI from developing, he paused and said he doesn't know.

“It's not like nuclear weapons, which are only good for bad things,” he explained. “It's a difficult decision because it can do tremendous good in healthcare and education. It'll do tremendous good, and in fact if you think about it increasing productivity in many, many industries, that should be good.”

The problem ultimately is not due to AI itself, but “on how we organize society,” Hinton added.

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