首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 商潮 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

“AI教父”:AI会令企业利润激增,但也会造成大规模失业

Jason Ma
2025-09-09

尽管裁员潮尚未出现,但越来越多的证据表明,AI正在减少初级工作机会。

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

2024年12月8日,斯德哥尔摩,杰弗里·辛顿发表诺贝尔奖获奖感言。图片来源:Pontus Lundahl—TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP via Getty Images

• 计算机科学家、诺贝尔奖得主杰弗里·辛顿预测,随着企业以人工智能取代工人,AI将引发大规模失业与企业利润激增。但他对《金融时报》表示,这并非技术的过错,而是资本主义制度的产物。尽管裁员潮尚未出现,但越来越多的证据表明,AI正在减少初级工作机会。

先锋计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿凭借其成就荣获诺贝尔奖,并被尊为“AI教父”。他表示,人工智能将引发大规模失业与企业利润激增。

这位前谷歌(Google)科学家接受了《金融时报》的深度专访,就众多话题发表了自己的看法。他解释了自己离开科技巨头谷歌的原因,就AI可能带来的威胁发出警告,并透露了自己对AI技术的应用。他还预测了哪些人将成为赢家,哪些人将成为输家。

辛顿表示:“实际情况是,富人将用AI取代工人。这将引发大规模失业和企业利润激增。这会令少数人更富,而多数人将更加贫穷。这并非AI技术的过错,而是资本主义制度的本质。”

这番言论与他上个月在《财富》杂志的表态遥相呼应。当时,他指出,AI企业更关注短期利润,而不是技术带来的长远后果。

目前裁员潮尚未出现,但越来越多证据表明AI正在减少人类工作机会,尤其是大学应届毕业生初入职场的初级岗位。

纽约联储(New York Fed)调查发现,尽管未来几个月企业裁员人数预计将有所增长,但使用AI的企业更有可能对员工进行再培训,而不是解雇。

辛顿此前曾表示,医疗保健行业将是一个能够在潜在大规模失业潮中幸免的行业。

今年6月,他在YouTube节目《Diary of a CEO 》中解释称:“如果能让医生的效率提高五倍,我们就能以相同的成本获得五倍的医疗服务。人们对医疗服务的需求几乎没有上限——只要不产生额外成本,患者总是想要获得更多医疗服务。”

然而,辛顿坚信,执行日常琐碎工作的岗位将被AI接管,但需要高技能的岗位不会受到冲击。

在接受《金融时报》采访时,辛顿还驳斥了OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼提出的构想,即随着AI颠覆经济格局和减少对上班族的需求,建议支付全民基本工资。辛顿称此举“无法解决人类尊严问题”,也无法体现人们从工作中获得的价值感。

辛顿一直警告AI技术缺乏安全护栏的危险。他估计,在发展出超级人工智能之后,AI技术有10%至20%的可能性会导致人类灭亡。

在他看来,AI的威胁分为两类:一类是技术本身对人类未来构成的风险;一类是AI被恶意操纵者利用所造成的后果。

在接受《金融时报》采访时,他警告AI可能助长生物武器研发,并对特朗普政府不愿意对加强AI监管表示遗憾。而中国正在更认真地对待这一威胁。但他同时也承认,鉴于AI技术巨大的可能性和不确定性,它可能蕴含着潜在机遇。

辛顿表示:“我们无法预知未来,那些妄言未来的人不过是自欺欺人。我们正处在惊人变革的关键历史时刻,结果可能极好,也可能极坏。我们只能猜测,但现状绝不会一成不变。”

与此同时,他对《金融时报》表示他在生活中也在使用AI,OpenAI的ChatGPT是他的首选。虽然他主要将聊天机器人用于研究,但他透露,前女友曾在两人分手时用ChatGPT“告诉我我是多么卑鄙的人。”

他打趣道:“她让聊天机器人解释我的行为是多么糟糕,并把结果转发给我。我并不认为自己是个卑鄙的人,所以这并没有让我太难过……我只是遇到了更喜欢的人,你懂的。”

辛顿还解释了他在2023年离开谷歌的原因。虽然媒体报道称他之所以辞职,是为了更自由地谈论AI的危害,但这位77岁的诺贝尔奖得主否认此说法。

他表示:“我在75岁时离开谷歌,当时,我的编程能力已大不如前,何况Netflix还有太多我还没来得及观看的精彩内容。我努力工作了55年,是时候退休了……而且我想,既然要离开谷歌,索性把AI风险说清楚。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

• 计算机科学家、诺贝尔奖得主杰弗里·辛顿预测,随着企业以人工智能取代工人,AI将引发大规模失业与企业利润激增。但他对《金融时报》表示,这并非技术的过错,而是资本主义制度的产物。尽管裁员潮尚未出现,但越来越多的证据表明,AI正在减少初级工作机会。

先锋计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿凭借其成就荣获诺贝尔奖,并被尊为“AI教父”。他表示,人工智能将引发大规模失业与企业利润激增。

这位前谷歌(Google)科学家接受了《金融时报》的深度专访,就众多话题发表了自己的看法。他解释了自己离开科技巨头谷歌的原因,就AI可能带来的威胁发出警告,并透露了自己对AI技术的应用。他还预测了哪些人将成为赢家,哪些人将成为输家。

辛顿表示:“实际情况是,富人将用AI取代工人。这将引发大规模失业和企业利润激增。这会令少数人更富,而多数人将更加贫穷。这并非AI技术的过错,而是资本主义制度的本质。”

这番言论与他上个月在《财富》杂志的表态遥相呼应。当时,他指出,AI企业更关注短期利润,而不是技术带来的长远后果。

目前裁员潮尚未出现,但越来越多证据表明AI正在减少人类工作机会,尤其是大学应届毕业生初入职场的初级岗位。

纽约联储(New York Fed)调查发现,尽管未来几个月企业裁员人数预计将有所增长,但使用AI的企业更有可能对员工进行再培训,而不是解雇。

辛顿此前曾表示,医疗保健行业将是一个能够在潜在大规模失业潮中幸免的行业。

今年6月,他在YouTube节目《Diary of a CEO 》中解释称:“如果能让医生的效率提高五倍,我们就能以相同的成本获得五倍的医疗服务。人们对医疗服务的需求几乎没有上限——只要不产生额外成本,患者总是想要获得更多医疗服务。”

然而,辛顿坚信,执行日常琐碎工作的岗位将被AI接管,但需要高技能的岗位不会受到冲击。

在接受《金融时报》采访时,辛顿还驳斥了OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼提出的构想,即随着AI颠覆经济格局和减少对上班族的需求,建议支付全民基本工资。辛顿称此举“无法解决人类尊严问题”,也无法体现人们从工作中获得的价值感。

辛顿一直警告AI技术缺乏安全护栏的危险。他估计,在发展出超级人工智能之后,AI技术有10%至20%的可能性会导致人类灭亡。

在他看来,AI的威胁分为两类:一类是技术本身对人类未来构成的风险;一类是AI被恶意操纵者利用所造成的后果。

在接受《金融时报》采访时,他警告AI可能助长生物武器研发,并对特朗普政府不愿意对加强AI监管表示遗憾。而中国正在更认真地对待这一威胁。但他同时也承认,鉴于AI技术巨大的可能性和不确定性,它可能蕴含着潜在机遇。

辛顿表示:“我们无法预知未来,那些妄言未来的人不过是自欺欺人。我们正处在惊人变革的关键历史时刻,结果可能极好,也可能极坏。我们只能猜测,但现状绝不会一成不变。”

与此同时,他对《金融时报》表示他在生活中也在使用AI,OpenAI的ChatGPT是他的首选。虽然他主要将聊天机器人用于研究,但他透露,前女友曾在两人分手时用ChatGPT“告诉我我是多么卑鄙的人。”

他打趣道:“她让聊天机器人解释我的行为是多么糟糕,并把结果转发给我。我并不认为自己是个卑鄙的人,所以这并没有让我太难过……我只是遇到了更喜欢的人,你懂的。”

辛顿还解释了他在2023年离开谷歌的原因。虽然媒体报道称他之所以辞职,是为了更自由地谈论AI的危害,但这位77岁的诺贝尔奖得主否认此说法。

他表示:“我在75岁时离开谷歌,当时,我的编程能力已大不如前,何况Netflix还有太多我还没来得及观看的精彩内容。我努力工作了55年,是时候退休了……而且我想,既然要离开谷歌,索性把AI风险说清楚。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

• Computer scientist and Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton predicted artificial intelligence will spark a surge in unemployment and profits as companies replace workers with AI. But it’s not the technology’s fault, he told the Financial Times, attributing it instead to capitalism. While layoffs haven’t spiked, evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities at the entry level.

Pioneering computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, whose work has earned him a Nobel Prize and the moniker “godfather of AI,” said artificial intelligence will spark a surge in unemployment and profits.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times, the former Google scientist cleared the air about why he left the tech giant, raised alarms on potential threats from AI, and revealed how he uses the technology. But he also predicted who the winners and losers will be.

“What’s actually going to happen is rich people are going to use AI to replace workers,” Hinton said. “It’s going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits. It will make a few people much richer and most people poorer. That’s not AI’s fault, that is the capitalist system.”

That echos comments he gave to Fortune last month, when he said AI companies are more concerned with short-term profits than the long-term consequences of the technology.

For now, layoffs haven’t spiked, but evidence is mounting that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially at the entry level where recent college graduates start their careers.

A survey from the New York Fed found that companies using AI are much more likely to retrain their employees than fire them, though layoffs are expected to rise in the coming months.

Hinton said earlier that healthcare is the one industry that will be safe from the potential jobs armageddon.

“If you could make doctors five times as efficient, we could all have five times as much health care for the same price,” he explained on the Diary of a CEO YouTube series in June. “There’s almost no limit to how much health care people can absorb—[patients] always want more health care if there’s no cost to it.”

Still, Hinton believes that jobs that perform mundane tasks will be taken over by AI, while sparing some jobs that require a high level of skill.

In his interview with the FT, he also dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s idea to pay a universal basic income as AI disrupts the economy and reduce demand for workers, saying it “won’t deal with human dignity” and the value people derive from having jobs.

Hinton has long warned about the dangers of AI without guardrails, estimating a 10% to 20% chance of the technology wiping out humans after the development of superintelligence.

In his view, the dangers of AI fall into two categories: the risk the technology itself poses to the future of humanity, and the consequences of AI being manipulated by people with bad intent.

In his FT interview, he warned AI could help someone build a bioweapon and lamented the Trump administration’s unwillingness to regulate AI more closely, while China is taking the threat more seriously. But he also acknowledged potential upside from AI amid its immense possibilities and uncertainties.

“We don’t know what is going to happen, we have no idea, and people who tell you what is going to happen are just being silly,” Hinton said. “We are at a point in history where something amazing is happening, and it may be amazingly good, and it may be amazingly bad. We can make guesses, but things aren’t going to stay like they are.”

Meanwhile, he told the FT how he uses AI in his own life, saying OpenAI’s ChatGPT is his product of choice. While he mostly uses the chatbot for research, Hinton revealed that a former girlfriend used ChatGPT “to tell me what a rat I was” during their breakup.

“She got the chatbot to explain how awful my behavior was and gave it to me. I didn’t think I had been a rat, so it didn’t make me feel too bad . . . I met somebody I liked more, you know how it goes,” he quipped.

Hinton also explained why he left Google in 2023. While media reports have said he quit so he could speak more freely about the dangers of AI, the 77-year-old Nobel laureate denied that was the reason.

“I left because I was 75, I could no longer program as well as I used to, and there’s a lot of stuff on Netflix I haven’t had a chance to watch,” he said. “I had worked very hard for 55 years, and I felt it was time to retire . . . And I thought, since I am leaving anyway, I could talk about the risks.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开