报告：这些国家的岗位更容易被AI接管

The spate of new generative A.I. tools, often billed as worker “copilots” and “teammates,” is adding a new twist to old debates about automation and job elimination.

While boosters of the new technology emphasize its potential to bring about a new era of human/A.I. collaboration, many critics worry that this partnership will turn into a takeover as millions of jobs and skills are gradually subsumed by A.I. technology.

According to a new report by software company ServiceNow and research partner Pearson, there’s truth in both views.

The report, which looks at how ChatGPT and other A.I. tools could shape the workplace in the coming years, estimates that for millions of people, A.I. will “augment” their jobs by allowing employees to lean more into the creative and analytical aspects of their roles. But an even greater number of people will need to be completely retrained because A.I. will eliminate their jobs.

And, the report says, the difference between the two outcomes will vary greatly by country and industry.

As many as 4.9 million jobs in the U.S. for example could be augmented by A.I. technology by 2027, according to the report. Thanks to A.I., the report says, employees will be less burdened with tedious tasks. “The more we allow machines to do the kinds of things they’re good at, the less humans will have to behave like machines,” ServiceNow says in the report.

An additional 5.9 million new jobs in the U.S. could be created by 2027 thanks to the opportunities created by the new technology, the report estimates. But these benefits will come at the expense of an estimated 23.5 million jobs that will be eliminated as a result of A.I.

To learn more about the impact that disruptive technologies could have on more than 6,500 occupations in multiple countries, data scientists at Pearson created machine learning models that looked at the skills and tasks required to do certain jobs. From there, they evaluated the effect that automation and augmentation would have on them and identified the easiest migration paths to future jobs.

In the U.K., Japan, and the U.S., automation will affect twice as many workers in the retail sector as in any other major industry, according to the report.

In India, meanwhile, the manufacturing industry will experience the greatest change since physical processes haven’t been as altered by automation as they have in other countries. The report estimates that India could see 4.6 million jobs augmented by A.I., on par with the U.S., while 16.2 million Indian jobs could be eliminated and 4.7 million new jobs created by 2027.

According to the report, A.I.’s spread through the workplace will drive demand for employees like “flow automation engineers,” “platform owners,” “help desk support agents,” and “data analysts.”

“With the right reskilling, nontech workers whose jobs are affected by A.I. can step into the tech roles of the future,” the report says.

The report comes at a time when businesses are grappling with the rapid changes brought by A.I., with even tech companies split on how much to embrace A.I. use in the workplace. Samsung, for example, installed a ban on programs like ChatGPT since it can present security risks. Others, like IBM, led by CEO Arvind Krishna, are eyeing A.I. as a way to cut costs.

Last month, Krishna announced a slowdown or suspension of hiring for roles that might soon be replaced by A.I. Pointing to back-office positions like those in human resources, Krishna said he could imagine thousands of roles “getting replaced by A.I. and automation over a five-year period.” That was quickly followed by a promise to not fire people as a result of A.I. implementation.

The report cautions companies that simply eliminating people’s positions without reskilling workers isn’t the best course of action. ServiceNow told Fortune that “it would be shortsighted for businesses to try and simply replace their employees with technology.”