立即打开
电动汽车业的大牛行情,会在2021年续演吗?

电动汽车业的大牛行情,会在2021年续演吗?

Craig Trudell, 彭博社 2020年12月23日
某家电动汽车公司的股价大起大落,值得投资者警惕。

今年年初,特斯拉(Tesla)的股价飙升至6490亿美元,超过全球七大汽车制造商的总市值,一些投资者相当兴奋,其他投资者感到不安。即便首席执行官埃隆•马斯克发出警告,现在该公司也完全能够单独归入一类。

“我早就说过股价太高。”12月初,马斯克说道。“但他们不听我的。”

对于想模仿马斯克成功的初创企业,还有努力寻求颠覆的传统汽车制造商来说,针对未来电动汽车需求的担心已经基本散去。正因为出现特斯拉现象,人们才达成共识,即电动汽车是不可否认的未来。

“现在市场更加认同电动汽车乃是大势所趋。”管理约3700亿美元的Baillie Gifford的投资经理迈克尔•派伊表示,该公司是特斯拉和中国电动汽车制造商蔚来的大股东之一。十年后回头看,“现如今可能会成为电动汽车大普及的十年。”

发展到当前这一步,推动力量并不完全是特斯拉。针对传统燃油车的法规更严格、购买电动汽车的支持增加、技术进步再加上规模效益,都推动更多消费者选择电动汽车。不过还有两个大问题:其他初创企业能否复制特斯拉的成功?电动汽车市场能否快速增长支持现有企业和初创企业?

“当前之所以出现种种泡沫,就是因为没有人想错过下一个特斯拉。”芝加哥地区专注能源投资的Volta Energy Technologies的首席执行官杰夫•张伯伦说,“问题是哪家公司可以成为下一个特斯拉?”就在特斯拉最近实现大规模量产并产生现金流之前不久,马斯克还曾经表示公司面临“致命的危险”。特斯拉成立了17年才刚达到目标,恰恰说明努力追赶的新进入者失败风险很高。面临如此高风险,一直质疑特斯拉的著名投资者略感安慰。著名的卖空者吉姆•查诺斯跟马斯克“痛苦”地对赌了一年,如今转而做空Nikola和其他估值过高的电动汽车公司。“我想提醒投资者,如果身处热门领域一定要小心,因为支持者不仅可能吹捧无利可图的企业,还有强推有欺诈行为的企业。”查诺斯在接受彭博电视台(Bloomberg Television)采访时说。

今年短短几个月内,Nikola的暴涨暴跌就是警示。该公司由企业家特雷弗•米尔顿创立,目标是用电池和燃料电池取代大型车辆的柴油机,从而改变卡车运输业。该公司还表示将建立氢气站网络,先期向客户收取费用。

今年6月,Nikola与通用汽车(General Motors)的前副董事长领导的特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)合并上市。市场相当乐观地认为,公司能够获得现金注入并开始制造卡车,市值一度超过福特。然而9月一名卖空者指出Nikola在技术上欺骗了投资者,股价应声暴跌。公司否认造假。监管机构展开调查,之后米尔顿离开。

Nikola的崩溃并未影响其他家SPAC。2020年所谓的空白支票公司(空白支票公司,又称特殊目的的收购公司——译注)筹集到700亿美元,比2019年增加五倍,至少有15家电动汽车公司已经上市或等候上市。Lordstown Motors就是公布计划的公司之一,宣称在2021年9月将开始生产电动皮卡Endurance,而Fisker旗下的Ocean SUV计划于2022年面世。

“推特(Twitter)有些很有钱也很可靠的人联系我,问我们有没有兴趣跟他们的SPAC合作。”加州电池公司Sila Nanotechnologies的首席执行官,曾经担任特斯拉工程师的吉恩•贝尔迪切夫斯基说。在Nikola造假事件曝光后,10月初曾经给他发信息的空白支票公司董事会成员愈发积极。

2019年底,马斯克证明自己不仅可以主宰新的电动汽车市场,还能够顺便赚点小钱,特斯拉股价也迅速走高。当时的特斯拉发展势头相当强劲,一方面中国加速生产Model 3,另一方面在加州则加速制造Model Y跨界车,目前已经连续五个季度实现盈利。

小鹏汽车也赶上了电动汽车股票大涨的热潮。小鹏汽车总部位于广州,创始人何小鹏也曾经创办了中国最受欢迎的手机浏览器之一。今年8月赴美上市后三个月,股价几乎翻了五倍。

小鹏的副董事长兼总裁顾宏地说:“过去五年里我们一直在谈论渗透和增长目标,然而今年才真正出现爆炸式增长。人们对行业长期增长的信心日益增强。”

即便真如他所说,短期内小鹏在全球销售排行榜也排不到很高的位置。彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)的分析师估计,今年将交付约2.5万辆P7轿车和G3 SUV。然而上个月小鹏市值还是达到530亿美元,而福特(Ford)已经好几年达不到该水平。到了12月,投资者对公司的预计是今年销售每辆车对应约170万美元市值。如果德国巨头大众汽车(Volkswagen)可以对应同样倍数,市值将高达15.5万亿美元左右。然而大众销售每辆车只能够对应约1万美元市值。

说起汽车行业里估值受到二战以来最严重冲击的巨头,还不只是大众。4月,一些市场里汽车销售几乎全军覆没。到今年6月,汽车行业新增债务达720亿美元。

面临各种灾难,电动汽车表现出色。油价暴跌并持续低迷并未造成影响。中国出台了一系列措施支持汽车购买,德国和法国则开始提供补贴帮助制造商走出低迷。

“如果油价达到历史低位、经济严重衰退、汽车销量暴跌以及所有其他因素都没有影响到电动汽车的增长,就更难说什么因素才可以造成影响。”BloombergNEF的先进交通主管科林•麦克科拉彻说,“发展路径越发清晰,所有可能导致情况偏离轨道的因素都未造成打击,而是某种程度上推动反弹。”

本季度很可能是纯电动和插电式混合动力汽车全球销售首次达到100万辆。要知道,2015年的电动汽车销量才刚刚突破第一个百万。目前,全球电动汽车的保有量即将突破1000万大关。麦克科拉彻说:“数量级每上升一个台阶,就有更多人意识到转变,电动汽车已经突破小众圈层,获得全民关注。”

在一定程度上,传统汽车制造商也从电动汽车的需求激增方面受益,但今年只有少数汽车制造商股价出现明显上涨。通用汽车和戴姆勒(Daimler)等企业奋力转型也广受赞誉,此前巨头们花了一个多世纪才在传统燃油车基础上搭建好制造业、劳动力和零售方式。

去年11月通用汽车向投资者表示,到2025年将斥资270亿美元引进30款电池驱动车型,预算增加了三分之一以上,股价也受到提振。但通用汽车收购一些凯迪拉克(Cadillac)的经销商并不认同转型,经历了不少波折。

戴姆勒预计,到本世纪末,全球销量一半以上都会是电动汽车,因此不得不克服工会反对将传统燃油车产量削减70%。上个月,戴姆勒的一家动力系统工厂负责人转投特斯拉,还引发工人集体抗议。

马斯克可能有志占领戴姆勒的大本营德国和欧洲其他地区,但今年欧洲电动汽车市场之所以能够第一次与中国匹敌,还是依靠传统企业。在美国,通用和福特都在制造电动皮卡,成功地抵抗丰田(Toyota)和其他公司,守住这块最赚钱的细分市场。

“我不会低估该领域的传统代工商。”Aberdeen Standard Investments驻新加坡的投资经理克里斯蒂娜•翁表示,该公司管理约5630亿美元的全球资产,其中也包括丰田。“如果拥有盈利且可以产生现金流的业务,就能够用来投资新兴业务,确实有助于平衡风险。”

汽车行业里,大众的首席执行官赫伯特•迪斯对马斯克和特斯拉最为支持且公开称赞。2015年柴油机排放丑闻发生前他刚加入公司,此后一直主张转型电动汽车。在上个月一场两小时的简报会上,大众讨论未来五年大额投资方向,期间提到31次特斯拉。

“我们认为特斯拉是非常重要的竞争对手”,因为马斯克“真正拉动了整个行业,”上个月一次采访中迪斯说,“他有软件背景,还具有很多我们需要加强的能力。他是我们的参考。”

不过大众今年推出极重要的新款电动汽车车型时,遇到了跟特斯拉类似的麻烦。当时大众ID.3发布时遇到软件问题,于是雇佣承包商在帐篷里修理数千辆电动后开盖车,某些功能还没有就绪就匆忙出售。此事让人想起两年前特斯拉的Model 3出厂前遇到问题时,在停车场搭起建筑匆忙修理的一幕。

尽管ID.3上市过程颇为曲折,但迪斯已经看到回报。11月,该款车的销量超过了欧洲的其他电动汽车。Evercore ISI的分析师预测,在可以预见的未来,大众和特斯拉将形成全球电动汽车市场双寡头垄断。Baillie Gifford的派伊认为大众准确把握了汽车业的发展方向。在他看来,很多传统汽车制造商还没有理清头绪。

“如果40吨重的半挂卡车驶来,就别傻笑着躺在路中间了。”派伊说。即便是大众之类“已经领悟关键的企业,要在规定时间内采取行动也仍然面临挑战。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

今年年初,特斯拉(Tesla)的股价飙升至6490亿美元,超过全球七大汽车制造商的总市值,一些投资者相当兴奋,其他投资者感到不安。即便首席执行官埃隆•马斯克发出警告,现在该公司也完全能够单独归入一类。

“我早就说过股价太高。”12月初,马斯克说道。“但他们不听我的。”

对于想模仿马斯克成功的初创企业,还有努力寻求颠覆的传统汽车制造商来说,针对未来电动汽车需求的担心已经基本散去。正因为出现特斯拉现象,人们才达成共识,即电动汽车是不可否认的未来。

“现在市场更加认同电动汽车乃是大势所趋。”管理约3700亿美元的Baillie Gifford的投资经理迈克尔•派伊表示,该公司是特斯拉和中国电动汽车制造商蔚来的大股东之一。十年后回头看,“现如今可能会成为电动汽车大普及的十年。”

发展到当前这一步,推动力量并不完全是特斯拉。针对传统燃油车的法规更严格、购买电动汽车的支持增加、技术进步再加上规模效益,都推动更多消费者选择电动汽车。不过还有两个大问题:其他初创企业能否复制特斯拉的成功?电动汽车市场能否快速增长支持现有企业和初创企业?

“当前之所以出现种种泡沫,就是因为没有人想错过下一个特斯拉。”芝加哥地区专注能源投资的Volta Energy Technologies的首席执行官杰夫•张伯伦说,“问题是哪家公司可以成为下一个特斯拉?”就在特斯拉最近实现大规模量产并产生现金流之前不久,马斯克还曾经表示公司面临“致命的危险”。特斯拉成立了17年才刚达到目标,恰恰说明努力追赶的新进入者失败风险很高。面临如此高风险,一直质疑特斯拉的著名投资者略感安慰。著名的卖空者吉姆•查诺斯跟马斯克“痛苦”地对赌了一年,如今转而做空Nikola和其他估值过高的电动汽车公司。“我想提醒投资者,如果身处热门领域一定要小心,因为支持者不仅可能吹捧无利可图的企业,还有强推有欺诈行为的企业。”查诺斯在接受彭博电视台(Bloomberg Television)采访时说。

今年短短几个月内,Nikola的暴涨暴跌就是警示。该公司由企业家特雷弗•米尔顿创立,目标是用电池和燃料电池取代大型车辆的柴油机,从而改变卡车运输业。该公司还表示将建立氢气站网络,先期向客户收取费用。

今年6月,Nikola与通用汽车(General Motors)的前副董事长领导的特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)合并上市。市场相当乐观地认为,公司能够获得现金注入并开始制造卡车,市值一度超过福特。然而9月一名卖空者指出Nikola在技术上欺骗了投资者,股价应声暴跌。公司否认造假。监管机构展开调查,之后米尔顿离开。

Nikola的崩溃并未影响其他家SPAC。2020年所谓的空白支票公司(空白支票公司,又称特殊目的的收购公司——译注)筹集到700亿美元,比2019年增加五倍,至少有15家电动汽车公司已经上市或等候上市。Lordstown Motors就是公布计划的公司之一,宣称在2021年9月将开始生产电动皮卡Endurance,而Fisker旗下的Ocean SUV计划于2022年面世。

“推特(Twitter)有些很有钱也很可靠的人联系我,问我们有没有兴趣跟他们的SPAC合作。”加州电池公司Sila Nanotechnologies的首席执行官,曾经担任特斯拉工程师的吉恩•贝尔迪切夫斯基说。在Nikola造假事件曝光后,10月初曾经给他发信息的空白支票公司董事会成员愈发积极。

2019年底,马斯克证明自己不仅可以主宰新的电动汽车市场,还能够顺便赚点小钱,特斯拉股价也迅速走高。当时的特斯拉发展势头相当强劲,一方面中国加速生产Model 3,另一方面在加州则加速制造Model Y跨界车,目前已经连续五个季度实现盈利。

小鹏汽车也赶上了电动汽车股票大涨的热潮。小鹏汽车总部位于广州,创始人何小鹏也曾经创办了中国最受欢迎的手机浏览器之一。今年8月赴美上市后三个月,股价几乎翻了五倍。

小鹏的副董事长兼总裁顾宏地说:“过去五年里我们一直在谈论渗透和增长目标,然而今年才真正出现爆炸式增长。人们对行业长期增长的信心日益增强。”

即便真如他所说,短期内小鹏在全球销售排行榜也排不到很高的位置。彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)的分析师估计,今年将交付约2.5万辆P7轿车和G3 SUV。然而上个月小鹏市值还是达到530亿美元,而福特(Ford)已经好几年达不到该水平。到了12月,投资者对公司的预计是今年销售每辆车对应约170万美元市值。如果德国巨头大众汽车(Volkswagen)可以对应同样倍数,市值将高达15.5万亿美元左右。然而大众销售每辆车只能够对应约1万美元市值。

说起汽车行业里估值受到二战以来最严重冲击的巨头,还不只是大众。4月,一些市场里汽车销售几乎全军覆没。到今年6月,汽车行业新增债务达720亿美元。

面临各种灾难,电动汽车表现出色。油价暴跌并持续低迷并未造成影响。中国出台了一系列措施支持汽车购买,德国和法国则开始提供补贴帮助制造商走出低迷。

“如果油价达到历史低位、经济严重衰退、汽车销量暴跌以及所有其他因素都没有影响到电动汽车的增长,就更难说什么因素才可以造成影响。”BloombergNEF的先进交通主管科林•麦克科拉彻说,“发展路径越发清晰,所有可能导致情况偏离轨道的因素都未造成打击,而是某种程度上推动反弹。”

本季度很可能是纯电动和插电式混合动力汽车全球销售首次达到100万辆。要知道,2015年的电动汽车销量才刚刚突破第一个百万。目前,全球电动汽车的保有量即将突破1000万大关。麦克科拉彻说:“数量级每上升一个台阶,就有更多人意识到转变,电动汽车已经突破小众圈层,获得全民关注。”

在一定程度上,传统汽车制造商也从电动汽车的需求激增方面受益,但今年只有少数汽车制造商股价出现明显上涨。通用汽车和戴姆勒(Daimler)等企业奋力转型也广受赞誉,此前巨头们花了一个多世纪才在传统燃油车基础上搭建好制造业、劳动力和零售方式。

去年11月通用汽车向投资者表示,到2025年将斥资270亿美元引进30款电池驱动车型,预算增加了三分之一以上,股价也受到提振。但通用汽车收购一些凯迪拉克(Cadillac)的经销商并不认同转型,经历了不少波折。

戴姆勒预计,到本世纪末,全球销量一半以上都会是电动汽车,因此不得不克服工会反对将传统燃油车产量削减70%。上个月,戴姆勒的一家动力系统工厂负责人转投特斯拉,还引发工人集体抗议。

马斯克可能有志占领戴姆勒的大本营德国和欧洲其他地区,但今年欧洲电动汽车市场之所以能够第一次与中国匹敌,还是依靠传统企业。在美国,通用和福特都在制造电动皮卡,成功地抵抗丰田(Toyota)和其他公司,守住这块最赚钱的细分市场。

“我不会低估该领域的传统代工商。”Aberdeen Standard Investments驻新加坡的投资经理克里斯蒂娜•翁表示,该公司管理约5630亿美元的全球资产,其中也包括丰田。“如果拥有盈利且可以产生现金流的业务,就能够用来投资新兴业务,确实有助于平衡风险。”

汽车行业里,大众的首席执行官赫伯特•迪斯对马斯克和特斯拉最为支持且公开称赞。2015年柴油机排放丑闻发生前他刚加入公司,此后一直主张转型电动汽车。在上个月一场两小时的简报会上,大众讨论未来五年大额投资方向,期间提到31次特斯拉。

“我们认为特斯拉是非常重要的竞争对手”,因为马斯克“真正拉动了整个行业,”上个月一次采访中迪斯说,“他有软件背景,还具有很多我们需要加强的能力。他是我们的参考。”

不过大众今年推出极重要的新款电动汽车车型时,遇到了跟特斯拉类似的麻烦。当时大众ID.3发布时遇到软件问题,于是雇佣承包商在帐篷里修理数千辆电动后开盖车,某些功能还没有就绪就匆忙出售。此事让人想起两年前特斯拉的Model 3出厂前遇到问题时,在停车场搭起建筑匆忙修理的一幕。

尽管ID.3上市过程颇为曲折,但迪斯已经看到回报。11月,该款车的销量超过了欧洲的其他电动汽车。Evercore ISI的分析师预测,在可以预见的未来,大众和特斯拉将形成全球电动汽车市场双寡头垄断。Baillie Gifford的派伊认为大众准确把握了汽车业的发展方向。在他看来,很多传统汽车制造商还没有理清头绪。

“如果40吨重的半挂卡车驶来,就别傻笑着躺在路中间了。”派伊说。即便是大众之类“已经领悟关键的企业,要在规定时间内采取行动也仍然面临挑战。”(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Tesla has thrilled some investors and jarred others by soaring to a valuation of as much as $649 billion, more than what the world’s seven largest carmakers were collectively worth at the beginning of this year. The company is now comfortably in a category by itself, defying even Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s warnings.

“I actually said the stock is too high a long time ago,” Musk said at the start of December. “But they didn’t listen to me.”

For startups aiming to mimic Musk’s success and for traditional carmakers struggling to disrupt themselves, most lingering doubts about future demand for electric vehicles have dissipated. Thanks in large part to the Tesla phenomenon, a consensus has emerged that they are undeniably the future.

“What you’ve had is a greater realization of the inevitability” of EVs, said Michael Pye, an investment manager at Baillie Gifford, which oversees about $370 billion and is one of the biggest shareholders of both Tesla and China-based EV maker Nio. Ten years from now, “it’s likely we’ll look back on this as the electric decade.”

Tesla alone has not brought the world to this point. A mix of stricter regulations against internal-combustion cars, increased support for plug-in vehicle purchases, improvements in technology and benefits of scale have led more consumers to embrace electrics. Still, two big questions remain: Can any other startup meaningfully replicate Tesla’s success? And will the EV market grow quickly enough to support both incumbents and startups?

“A reason all the current frothy action is happening is no one wants to miss the next Tesla,” said Jeff Chamberlain, CEO of Volta Energy Technologies, a Chicago-area fund that focuses on energy investments. “The question is, which one is the next Tesla?” Musk himself has described Tesla as having been “in mortal danger” before only recently pulling off a combination of high-volume manufacturing and cash generation. The time it took the 17-year-old company to get there suggests a high risk of failure for newer entrants trying to catch up. That risk is giving prominent investors who doubted Tesla a shot at redemption. Famed short seller Jim Chanos, who has had a “painful” year wagering against Musk, is betting that Nikola and other EV companies riding Tesla’s coattails are overvalued. “I would tell investors, if you’re in a hot area, be careful, because that’s an area in which promoters will try to foist off not only unprofitable but fraudulent businesses,” Chanos told Bloomberg Television.

The dramatic rise and fall of Nikola over just a few months was this year’s cautionary tale. The company founded by entrepreneur Trevor Milton set out to transform the trucking industry by replacing the diesels in big rigs with batteries and fuel cells. It also said it would build a hydrogen-station network and charge customers upfront for refueling.

In June, Nikola went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, led by a former vice chairman of General Motors. Optimism that the infusion of cash would help the startup begin to produce trucks briefly sent its valuation soaring past Ford’s. The stock collapsed by September after a short seller claimed Nikola had deceived investors about its technology; the company has denied this. Regulators opened investigations, and Milton left the company.

Nikola’s breakdown hasn’t deterred other SPACs. The so-called blank-check firms have raised $70 billion in 2020 — a fivefold increase from 2019 — and at least 15 EV companies have been taken public or have listings pending. Those that already made their debut include Lordstown Motors, which has said it will begin producing its Endurance electric pickup in September 2021, and Fisker, whose Ocean SUV is planned for 2022.

“I have had very credible people, with very large sums of money, DM me on Twitter to see if we’d be interested in working with their SPAC,” said Gene Berdichevsky, CEO of Sila Nanotechnologies, a California-based battery company, and ex-Tesla engineer. The blank-check company board member who messaged him reached out in early October, after Nikola’s implosion.

Tesla shares started their meteoric rise in late 2019, when Musk proved he could not only dominate the nascent EV market but also make a small amount of money in the process. The company got on a roll by accelerating production of Model 3 sedans in China and Model Y crossovers in California and has now recorded five consecutive quarterly profits.

Companies getting in on the coinciding EV stock-buying bonanza include XPeng, the Guangzhou-based company co-founded by He Xiaopeng, the billionaire behind one of China’s most popular mobile browsers. Within three months after its U.S. listing in August, the stock almost quintupled.

“We have been talking about our goals of penetration and growth for the past five years,” said Brian Gu, the vice chairman and president of XPeng. “Yet we hadn’t seen the real explosion until this year. There’s an increased confidence in the industry’s long-term growth.”

Even so, XPeng won’t appear high up on global sales charts anytime soon. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts estimate the company will deliver about 25,000 P7 sedans and G3 SUVs this year. Its market cap still managed to reach $53 billion last month, a valuation Ford hasn’t seen in several years. Entering December, investors were awarding the company about $1.7 million of market cap per vehicle it’s expected to sell this year. If the same multiple were applied to Volkswagen, the German giant would be worth about $15.5 trillion. Instead, it’s being valued at about $10,000 per vehicle.

VW wasn’t alone in watching its valuation take a hit from the biggest disruption to auto-industry output since World War II. Vehicle sales in some markets were almost completely wiped out for the month of April. By June, the industry had taken on $72 billion of new debt to cope.

But amid all the carnage, EVs outperformed. It hasn’t mattered that the price of oil crashed and remains depressed. China stepped in with a series of measures that supported plug-in car purchases, while Germany and France started offering subsidies to help boost automakers out of their slump.

“If historically low oil prices, a major economic downturn, a plunge in auto sales and all these other factors didn’t derail the growth, it gets harder to see what does,” said Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BloombergNEF. “The trajectory is getting clearer and clearer, and all these factors that might have derailed things are sort of bouncing off and not landing a blow.”

The current quarter may well be the first ever in which automakers sell 1 million fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles worldwide. It took the industry until 2015 to get its first million on the road. The global fleet is now about to cross the 10 million mark. “Each order of magnitude, a different number of people become aware that this shift is happening,” McKerracher said. “EVs have become part of the general consciousness instead of the consciousness of a small number of people who care about them.”

Conventional carmakers are benefiting somewhat from the bump in EV demand, too, but only a handful have seen their shares rise meaningfully this year. Companies including GM and Daimler are getting credit for undergoing metamorphoses, though they have spent more than a century basing manufacturing, labor and retailing practices on the internal-combustion engine.

GM’s stock got a boost when it told investors in November that it would spend $27 billion introducing 30 battery-powered models by 2025, increasing its budget by more than a third. But it’s going through an awkward process of buying out some Cadillac dealers that aren’t on board with the shift.

Daimler, which envisions more than half of its global sales being electrified by the end of the decade, will have to overcome labor-union opposition to shrinking its variations of combustion engines by 70%. Workers protested last month after the leader of a powertrain plant Daimler is retooling for EVs left the company for Tesla.

Musk may have ambitions to dominate Daimler’s home market of Germany and the rest of Europe, but the growth that has the region rivaling China for the first time this year has been driven by incumbents. In the U.S., GM and Ford have electric pickups in the works and have successfully defended that segment — far and away their most lucrative — from Toyota and others.

“I would not underestimate traditional OEMs in this area,” said Christina Woon, a Singapore-based investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which manages about $563 billion in global assets, including Toyota shares. “Having an existing business that’s profitable and that has cash flows that you can use to invest in a new or emerging business — that does help to balance out that risk.”

No automotive CEO has been as supportive and openly admiring of Musk and Tesla as VW’s Herbert Diess. He joined the company just before its 2015 diesel-emissions scandal and has remained consistent in his message about and moves toward electrification. During a two-hour briefing last month on the massive spending VW has planned for the next half-decade, Tesla’s name came up 31 times.

“We think it’s a very important competitor” because Musk is “really pulling the industry,” Diess said in an interview last month. “Coming from a software background, he has capabilities which we still have to build up. He’s a reference for us.”

But VW unintentionally echoed a troubling time for Tesla when launching a crucial new electric model this year. When software issues plagued the launch of the German carmaker’s ID.3, it hired a contractor to fix thousands of the electric hatchbacks in a tent, then rushed them to sale before some features were ready. The episode was reminiscent of when Tesla erected a structure in its parking lot two years ago during its struggle to get Model 3 sedans out the factory door. 

As rough as the ID.3 launch was, Diess is starting to see some payoff. The car outsold all other EVs across Europe in November. Analysts at Evercore ISI predict that VW and Tesla will form a global EV duopoly for the foreseeable future. Baillie Gifford’s Pye credits VW for grasping where the industry is headed. In his view, too many of its peers still don’t.

“If you’re about to be run over by a 40-ton semi, don’t lie down in the middle of the road and smile,” Pye said. Even for those who “have got the gist of that,” like VW, “whether they’re able to act on it or not within the required time frame is more challenging.”

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App