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人工智能发现,美国22个县可能爆发新的疫情

人工智能发现,美国22个县可能爆发新的疫情

Jeremy Kahn 2020年04月30日
该公司称,除了一开始爆发疫情的中国武汉,他们后来对意大利、韩国、西班牙和伊朗等国也做出了精准的预测。

根据一份新的分析报告显示,在美国计划放宽社交隔离措施的8个州中,可能存在一些尚未被发现的新冠病毒热点区。

该研究发现,计划于未来几周松绑社交隔离措施的8个州中,尽管有些地方目前尚未出现大量确诊病例,但有20多个农村县市的感染率或将出现飙升。

发布此分析报告的科技公司Dataminr利用人工智能审查了推特、Reddit等社交平台的帖文,还查看了超过100种语言的10000个公共数据源。除了多个政府和公司(包括多个对冲基金)在利用该技术预测新兴事件,世界卫生组织和联合国也在使用这项技术。

佐治亚州是美国第一个宣布放宽防疫措施的州。公布消息当日,该公司发出了警示,称此前不为人知的县市可能会成为未来的病毒热点区。

该州宣布,健身房、纹身店、美发和美甲沙龙、按摩中心等场所将在关闭不到一个月后恢复营业;上周末可举办现场宗教活动;这周一,餐馆和电影院也获准重开。

但Dataminr预测,佐治亚州的查塔姆县和克拉克县属于潜在的病毒热点区。即便两地采取社交隔离措施,其新增确诊病例数也将在1至2周后呈现指数级增长。

Dataminr的首席执行官泰德·贝利称,公司的研究表明,对于正在重启经济的各州,感染率的差异性很大:“虽然大城市的疫情可能‘达到顶峰了’,但在其他小城市和农村地区,很可能即将迎来新一波疫情。”

虽然贝利不是流行病学家,但他警告,在这种‘滚动式”爆发的疫情中放宽社交隔离限制措施,“可能对经济复苏产生不利影响”。

其他各州正在密切关注佐治亚州的做法,同时也在考虑如何松绑严格的“就地避难令”、停工停学及保持社交距离等措施。蒙大拿州和俄克拉何马州已宣布,计划在未来一周解除大部分禁令,而南卡罗来纳州和田纳西州宣布,现阶段只会取消一部分限制。其他几个州则表示,将在5月初以前减少社交隔离措施。

在Dataminr新发现的一批疫情热点地区里,也包括印第安纳州和密歇根州的部分县市。印第安纳州的封城令将于5月1日到期,该州目前正在就是否延长禁令展开辩论。密歇根州在4月25日宣布,该州的限制措施将持续到5月15日,但会放宽对划艇、高尔夫等休闲娱乐活动的限制,也允许花园中心、苗圃和园艺公司等恢复运营。

根据Dataminr在3月发表的一项研究显示,在新冠病毒大流行爆发初期,该公司利用软件在病例数出现指数级增长之前的7至15天,准确预测出14个州的感染热点区。

Dataminr也是最早一批向世界预警可能出现疫情的公司之一。基于去年12月30日社交媒体上有关潜在新型疾病的帖文激增的现象,该公司曾发出警示。除了Dataminr,BlueDot、HealthMap等少数几家公司也在利用人工智能技术试图监测新兴流行病及其传播轨迹。

贝利称,在病毒大流行期间的早期经验表明,公司在发现感染率激增地区方面做出了“高度准确”的预测,除了一开始爆发疫情的中国武汉,他们后来对意大利、韩国、西班牙和伊朗等国也做出了精准的预测。

Dataminr使用自然语言处理技术(一种可以分析语言的机器学习技术),寻找在社交媒体发出新冠病毒帖文的地理集群。不过,Dataminr并没有搜索关键词或监测社交媒体帖文的总量,而会寻找被称为“目击者”的账号。

Dataminr的软件搜索的帖文类型包括:表明自己的新冠病毒检测呈阳性;经历的症状与疾病一致;认为自己曾暴露在病毒环境但尚未做检测;或是提供确诊的亲戚、朋友和同事的第一手资料。同时,软件也会搜寻与新冠疫情相关的物资短缺和企业关闭消息。

随后,上述数据会被输入另一个算法中。该算法会把这类帖文的数量和增速,与特定地区在未来两周内感染率呈指数级增长的可能性联系起来。

Dataminr预测,除了佐治亚州的两个县,下列各县的病例数可能也会出现暴增:

佐治亚州

查塔姆县

克拉克县

佛罗里达州:

贝县

埃斯坎比亚县

马纳提县

波尔克县

沃卢西亚县

印第安纳州

门罗县

圣约瑟夫县

蒂珀卡努县

维哥县

密歇根州

杰克逊县

俄亥俄州

卢卡斯县

蒙哥马利县

萨米特县

南卡罗来纳州

查尔斯顿县

格林维尔县

霍里县

田纳西州

汉密尔顿县

得克萨斯州

伊达尔戈县

杰斐逊县

拉伯克县(财富中文网)

译者:Emily

根据一份新的分析报告显示,在美国计划放宽社交隔离措施的8个州中,可能存在一些尚未被发现的新冠病毒热点区。

该研究发现,计划于未来几周松绑社交隔离措施的8个州中,尽管有些地方目前尚未出现大量确诊病例,但有20多个农村县市的感染率或将出现飙升。

发布此分析报告的科技公司Dataminr利用人工智能审查了推特、Reddit等社交平台的帖文,还查看了超过100种语言的10000个公共数据源。除了多个政府和公司(包括多个对冲基金)在利用该技术预测新兴事件,世界卫生组织和联合国也在使用这项技术。

佐治亚州是美国第一个宣布放宽防疫措施的州。公布消息当日,该公司发出了警示,称此前不为人知的县市可能会成为未来的病毒热点区。

该州宣布,健身房、纹身店、美发和美甲沙龙、按摩中心等场所将在关闭不到一个月后恢复营业;上周末可举办现场宗教活动;这周一,餐馆和电影院也获准重开。

但Dataminr预测,佐治亚州的查塔姆县和克拉克县属于潜在的病毒热点区。即便两地采取社交隔离措施,其新增确诊病例数也将在1至2周后呈现指数级增长。

Dataminr的首席执行官泰德·贝利称,公司的研究表明,对于正在重启经济的各州,感染率的差异性很大:“虽然大城市的疫情可能‘达到顶峰了’,但在其他小城市和农村地区,很可能即将迎来新一波疫情。”

虽然贝利不是流行病学家,但他警告,在这种‘滚动式”爆发的疫情中放宽社交隔离限制措施,“可能对经济复苏产生不利影响”。

其他各州正在密切关注佐治亚州的做法,同时也在考虑如何松绑严格的“就地避难令”、停工停学及保持社交距离等措施。蒙大拿州和俄克拉何马州已宣布,计划在未来一周解除大部分禁令,而南卡罗来纳州和田纳西州宣布,现阶段只会取消一部分限制。其他几个州则表示,将在5月初以前减少社交隔离措施。

在Dataminr新发现的一批疫情热点地区里,也包括印第安纳州和密歇根州的部分县市。印第安纳州的封城令将于5月1日到期,该州目前正在就是否延长禁令展开辩论。密歇根州在4月25日宣布,该州的限制措施将持续到5月15日,但会放宽对划艇、高尔夫等休闲娱乐活动的限制,也允许花园中心、苗圃和园艺公司等恢复运营。

根据Dataminr在3月发表的一项研究显示,在新冠病毒大流行爆发初期,该公司利用软件在病例数出现指数级增长之前的7至15天,准确预测出14个州的感染热点区。

Dataminr也是最早一批向世界预警可能出现疫情的公司之一。基于去年12月30日社交媒体上有关潜在新型疾病的帖文激增的现象,该公司曾发出警示。除了Dataminr,BlueDot、HealthMap等少数几家公司也在利用人工智能技术试图监测新兴流行病及其传播轨迹。

贝利称,在病毒大流行期间的早期经验表明,公司在发现感染率激增地区方面做出了“高度准确”的预测,除了一开始爆发疫情的中国武汉,他们后来对意大利、韩国、西班牙和伊朗等国也做出了精准的预测。

Dataminr使用自然语言处理技术(一种可以分析语言的机器学习技术),寻找在社交媒体发出新冠病毒帖文的地理集群。不过,Dataminr并没有搜索关键词或监测社交媒体帖文的总量,而会寻找被称为“目击者”的账号。

Dataminr的软件搜索的帖文类型包括:表明自己的新冠病毒检测呈阳性;经历的症状与疾病一致;认为自己曾暴露在病毒环境但尚未做检测;或是提供确诊的亲戚、朋友和同事的第一手资料。同时,软件也会搜寻与新冠疫情相关的物资短缺和企业关闭消息。

随后,上述数据会被输入另一个算法中。该算法会把这类帖文的数量和增速,与特定地区在未来两周内感染率呈指数级增长的可能性联系起来。

Dataminr预测,除了佐治亚州的两个县,下列各县的病例数可能也会出现暴增:

佐治亚州

查塔姆县

克拉克县

佛罗里达州:

贝县

埃斯坎比亚县

马纳提县

波尔克县

沃卢西亚县

印第安纳州

门罗县

圣约瑟夫县

蒂珀卡努县

维哥县

密歇根州

杰克逊县

俄亥俄州

卢卡斯县

蒙哥马利县

萨米特县

南卡罗来纳州

查尔斯顿县

格林维尔县

霍里县

田纳西州

汉密尔顿县

得克萨斯州

伊达尔戈县

杰斐逊县

拉伯克县(财富中文网)

译者:Emily

Emerging coronavirus hotspots likely already exist undiscovered in the eight U.S. states planning to ease social distancing restrictions, a new analysis reveals.

The study discovers that in the eight states planning to ease social distancing measures in the coming weeks, almost two dozen small cities and rural counties have infection rates poised to skyrocket, despite their currently not having large numbers of confirmed cases.

The analysis, by technology firm Dataminr, uses artificial intelligence to scrutinize social media posts on platforms such as Twitter and Reddit. The company also looks at 10,000 public data sources in more than 100 languages. Its technology is used by both governments and companies, including many hedge funds, to predict emerging events. It is also used by the World Health Organization and the United Nations.

The company’s warning about previously unknown hotspots comes on the day that Georgia became the first U.S. state to ease measures imposed to stop the spread of outbreaks.

The state has allowed gyms, tattoo parlors, hair and nail salons, massage therapists, and other businesses to reopen after less than a month of closures. It is allowing in-person religious services to restart last weekend and will allow restaurants and theaters to reopen starting on Monday.

Yet Dataminr forecasts that two Georgia counties—Chatham and Clarke—are among those that, even with social distancing in place, are already one to two weeks away from experiencing an exponential surge in COVID-19 cases.

Ted Bailey, Dataminr’s chief executive, said that his company’s study indicated that infection rates varied widely within the states that were now reopening for business: “While it may be the case that the outbreak is ‘peaking’ in major cities, it is also likely the case that new virus waves are on the brink of emerging in other small metro and rural areas.”

Though not an epidemiologist, Bailey warned that easing social distancing restrictions in the midst of this kind of “rolling” outbreak “could be detrimental to recovery.”

Georgia’s experience is being closely watched by other states as they consider how to emerge from strict shelter-in-place orders, business and school closures, and social distancing measures. States that have already announced plans to ease most restrictions in the coming week include Montana and Oklahoma, while South Carolina and Tennessee have announced that only some restrictions will be lifted during this time. Several other states have said they will reduce social distancing measures by early May.

Among the areas where Dataminr has identified new emerging hotspots are counties in Indiana and Michigan. Indiana’s lockdown is due to expire on May 1, and the state is currently debating whether to extend it. Michigan announced on April 25 that its restrictions will remain in place until May 15 but will be eased for some recreational activities, including boating and golf, as well as for some businesses like garden centers, plant nurseries, and landscaping companies.

Earlier in the course of the coronavirus pandemic, Dataminr’s software was able to accurately forecast infection hotspots in 14 states between seven and 15 days prior to the actual case totals in those locations beginning to grow exponentially, according to a study the company published in March.

The company was also among the earliest to warn the world of a possible emerging epidemic, issuing an alert based on a surge in social media posts related to a potential novel disease on Dec. 30. It is one of a handful of companies, including BlueDot and HealthMap, that have used A.I. to try to spot emerging epidemics and track their spread.

Bailey said that previous experience during this pandemic has shown his company’s forecasts to be “highly accurate” in identifying regions about to experience rapid growth in infection rates, starting with Wuhan, China, and continuing with accurate predictions for places like Italy, South Korea, Spain, and Iran.

Dataminr uses natural language processing—a kind of machine learning that can analyze language—to look for geographic clusters of social media posts related to the coronavirus. But rather than searching for key words or monitoring aggregate volumes of social media posts, Dataminr instead looks for what it calls “eyewitness” accounts.

In this case, Dataminr’s software searches for posts in which people indicate that they have tested positive for COVID-19; are experiencing symptoms consistent with the disease; think they’ve been exposed to the virus but have not yet been tested; or provide firsthand accounts stating that relatives, friends, and colleagues are sick. It also looks for mentions of COVID-19-related supply shortages and closures.

This data is then fed into another algorithm that tries to correlate the volume and acceleration of such posts with the likelihood that a particular location will experience an exponential increase in infection rates in the next two weeks.

In addition to the two counties in Georgia, Dataminr is forecasting likely surges in the following counties:

Georgia

Chatham County

Clarke County

Florida:

Bay County

Escambia County

Manatee County

Polk County

Volusia County

Indiana

Monroe County

St. Joseph County

Tippecanoe County

Vigo County

Michigan

Jackson County

Ohio

Lucas County

Montgomery County

Summit County

South Carolina

Charleston County

Greenville County

Horry County

Tennessee

Hamilton County

Texas

Hidalgo County

Jefferson County

Lubbock County

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