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美股创下10年最强季度,科技板块最为抢眼

Kevin Kelleher 2019年04月03日

美股度过近十年来最扬眉吐气的一个季度。

随着2018年年底笼罩在市场上空的几片乌云逐渐消散,今年一季度,美国多数个股全线反弹,在上周五收盘后,美股终于走完了近十年来最扬眉吐气的一个季度。

标准普尔500指数在上周五收于2834.40点,当日上涨0.7%,今年一季度的涨幅达到13.1%。这也是自2009年三季度起,美股从全球金融危机中缓慢复苏以来,标普500指数表现最好的一个季度。同时它也是1998年以来,标普500指数表现最坚挺的一个季度。

与此同时,据雅虎财经报道,今年第一季度,道琼斯工业平均指数上升了11.2%,纳斯达克指数上涨了16.5%。

和历次股市反弹一样,今年一季度,小盘股的表现要好于大盘股,小盘股的涨幅超过了20%,而大盘股的涨幅也达到了13%。在标普500指数中,表现最好的行业分别是信息技术(上涨18.2%)、房地产(上涨16.8%)和能源行业(上涨15.6%)。医疗(上涨4.9%)和金融行业(上涨7.6%)则未能跑赢总体市场。

在标普500的大盘股中,涨幅最大的个股主要集中在芯片行业,如赛灵思、AMD和英伟达分别上涨了50%、43%和35%。处于转型阶段的通用电气上涨了42%, Netflix上涨了39%。在中盘股中,美容用品Coty上涨了81%,Chipotle Mexican Grill上涨了69%,施乐上涨了63%。

当然,也不是所有股票都有这样好的运气。由于收益状况不佳,又下调了分红,卡夫亨氏的股价大跌25%。制药企业百健的股价下跌了21%。在亚马逊等电商的挤压下,梅西百货的股价下跌了19%,药品零售商CVS Health也下跌了18%。

今年一季度的大涨,也在很大程度上抵消了上季度的股市大跌。去年下半年,由于有迹象表明美联储2019年将持续加息,加之中美贸易战愈演愈烈,道指从2018年10月3日到12月24日下跌了18.8%。这种恐慌性清仓导致去年第四季度美国股民总共损失了4.6万亿美元。

从今年1月起,笼罩在美国经济和金融市场上的阴云逐渐消散,中美针锋相对的紧张局面有所缓解,美联储在3月也放出信息,暗示今年不太可能加息。这些利好消息,加上市场意识到去年年底的股灾属于反应过激,共同推动了本轮美股的大涨。

Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management公司的CEO菲尔·布兰卡托表示:“去年12月股市的非理性波动,完全是由年度税务卖压效应、算法以及股民对新闻事件的极度情绪化反应推动的。”

布兰卡托认为,这也说明美股此次的强势复苏不会持续太久。“在这样的环境下,经济还没有强劲到可以使股市实现12%的回报率。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

U.S. stocks finished their best quarter in nearly a decade on last Friday, as several clouds hanging over the financial markets at the end of 2018 dissipated enough to prompt a strong rebound for most shares.

The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 2834.40, up 0.7% on the day and up 13.1% for the first quarter of 2019. It marked the strongest quarter for the benchmark stock index since the third-quarter of 2019, when stocks were recovering in the wake of a global financial crisis that led to the Great Recession. It was also the best first-quarter for the index since 1998.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, rose 11.2% in the first quarter, while the Nasdaq gained 16.5%, according to Yahoo Finance.

As often happens with stock rebounds, smaller-cap stocks outperformed the broader market, with micro-cap stocks gaining more than 20% and large-cap stocks rising 13%. Among the S&P 500’s sectors, information technology (+18.2%), real estate (+16.8%), and energy (+15.6%) performed the best, while health care (+4.9%) and financials (+7.6%) underperformed the overall market.

Among large-cap stocks in the S&P 500, some of the strongest gains were seen by chipmakers such as Xilinx, AMD, and Nvidia, up 50%, 43%, and 35%, respectively. General Electric, which is undergoing a turnaround, gained 42%, while Netflix advanced 39%. Among mid-caps, beauty-supply company Coty rose 81%, Chipotle Mexican Grill gained 69%, and Xerox rose 63%.

Not all stocks enjoyed the broad-based rebound in the quarter. Kraft Heinz declined 25% after slashing dividends in the wake of disappointing earnings, while drugmaker Biogen fell 21%. Macy’s dropped 19% and CVS Health fell 18% as large retail chains continue to struggle in the era of Amazon and e-commerce.

2019’s first quarter erased most of the losses posted during the previous quarter. The Dow slumped 18.8% between Oct. 3 and Dec. 24 of 2018, amid signs that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates through 2019 and the threat of a looming U.S.-China trade war. That dramatic selloff cause American households to lose a collective $4.6 trillion in the value of their stock holdings during the fourth quarter.

Starting in January, the clouds that hung over the economy and the financial markets began to clear up, with trade tensions between China and the U.S. easing somewhat and the Fed signaling March it’s unlikely to raise rates at all this year. Those developments, coupled with a sense that the late-2018 selloff had been overdone, powered this quarter’s rebound.

“The irrational moment of December was just that, a moment driven by tax selling, algorithms and people being extremely emotional about the headlines,” said Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management.

For Blancato, that serves as a warning that the rally may not last much longer. “The economy is not strong enough to drive a 12% return on the stock market in an environment like this.”

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