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投资理财 - 风险投资

美国中期选举后该怎么投资?请关注这6个板块

彭博社 2018年11月13日

多数板块都仍会受到贸易战影响,专家大都对中美贸易战是否将出现转机持怀疑态度。

美国中期选举终于尘埃落定,民主党人重新夺回了众议院的控制权,而共和党依旧把持着参议院。这次大选对股市有何影响?有不少证券投资者将目光投向六个板块。

尽管选举结果出来之后,标普500期货指数小幅走高,但下面这些才是未来一段时间美股市场最有可能出现波动的板块:

分析师们认为,随着两党在国会山形成均势,药品定价限制的威胁短期不复存在,因此制药和生物科技板块或将迎来上涨。另外,一个分裂的政府不太可能出台大规模支出计划,因此工业股可能将继续萎靡。至于科技板块,不论国会的风朝哪个方向吹,科技公司面临的监管都将只多不少。对于银行板块,由于特朗普政府的银监机构已经扎实就位,预计银行和金融机构将不会面临更严苛的监管。能源股的情况比较复杂,地方选举的结果将对油气生产商产生巨大影响,而目前结果还不明朗。最后是大麻股。美国有四个州对大麻合法化问题进行了投票,北达科他州和密歇根州还就大麻的“休闲用途”进行了投票。不过大麻在联邦层面仍然是非法的。另外值得注意的是,大多数板块都会受到贸易战影响。政策观察家大都对中美贸易战是否将出现转机持怀疑态度。而在美国以外,各大新兴市场基本都在增长。

不过也有一些市场观察人士表示,此次中期选举不会对股市行情造成太大波动。

地平线投资公司(Horizon Investments LLC)的首席全球策略师格雷格·威利亚认为,如果有些投资者担心出现利率变动等更大的宏观经济变化,那么此次选举对他们“影响有限”。加拿大帝国商业银行的投资策略总监伊安·迪·维尔特伊则写道:从历史上看,虽然总统所在的政党经常在中期选举中损失席位,但“历史经验证明,股市在中期选举之后一般表现良好。”

下面是华尔街对于几大值得关注的行业的看法:

· 制药

美国中期选举导致两党在国会中形成均势,在面对药价上涨的问题上,预计两党的僵局也不大可能被打破,因此投资者们很可能会再度涌入制药和生物科技板块。分析师认为,国会的僵局可能会维持至少两年以上,这也大大降低了出现由政府主导的药价调控的风险。

主要跟踪生物技术板块的一只三倍杠杆率的ETF基金在美股常规交易开盘前上涨了1.2个百分点,交易量达1500股。

· 银行

分析师预计,银行板短期内将面临一些压力,但这并非全然是坏事。多数市场观察人士认为,随着特朗普政府的监管部门已扎实就位,特朗普很可能将继续给银行业“松绑”。Veda Partners公司的分析师亨利埃塔·特雷亚兹表示,此次中期选举本身就有助于消除不确定性因素,有可能帮助股市上涨。

在美股开盘前,三倍杠杆率的Direxion Daily Financial Bull ETF基金上涨了2.3个百分点,交易量2500多股。

· 科技

互联网公司在经历了多年的快速增长后已显出趋冷迹象,同时,它也罕见地成为两党同时抨击的对象。雷蒙德詹姆斯公司的华盛顿政策分析师艾德·米尔斯表示:“科技行业已经上了华盛顿议事日程接近榜首的位置,而以前它甚至不在华盛顿的议事日程上。”Compass Point公司的高级政策分析师艾萨克·博尔坦斯基则认为,短期内华盛顿可能会就科技行业的监管召开更多听证会,而不是直接对监管政策进行改革。

· 工业

高盛的分析师和经济学家们认为,虽然基础建设仍是国会的争论焦点,但美国政府不太可能出台大规模的支出计划。在高盛分析师看来,如果共和党继续控制参众两院,由于财政捉襟见肘,国会通过基础设施建设法案的机率只有25%。而“如果民主党控制了参众两院中的一个或两个,政府出台大规模基建计划的可能性甚至会更低”。

· 能源

瑞银认为,中期选举对能源行业的影响较低。“除非国会改变了共和党对伊朗的制裁政策(对伊制裁也是导致油价走高的原因之一),否则国会不太可能影响到这个板块。”

· 大麻

分析人士认为,随着民主党入主众议院和司法部长杰夫·塞申斯的去职,美国的大麻股短期内可能出现飙升。银行业规则的明晰有助于缩小美股与加拿大股市的估值差异。在州一级,北达科他州和密歇根州已在就大麻合法化进行投票,而密苏里州和犹他州也将就医用大麻提案进行表决。(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

Equity investors are eyeing six key sectors after the midterm elections resulted in the Democrats seizing control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans maintained control of the Senate.

While S&P 500 futures edged higher, here are the sectors most likely to see moves:

Pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks may gain if the stalemate takes away the threat of drug pricing restrictions, analysts have said. They forecast that industrials would continue to languish under a divided government as a major spending package would be unlikley. Technology stock investors can expect more regulatory scrutiny, an outcome analysts expected no matter where congressional control would up. Banks and financial shares most likely won’t face tighter regulations as President Donald Trump’s regulators are firmly in place. It’s more complicated for energy shares, with the outcome of local races setting the tone for oil and gas producers. Those results remained unclear. And then there’s pot stocks. Marijuana legalization is on the ballot in four states, including recreational pot use in North Dakota and Michigan. Pot remains illegal at the federal level. Meanwhile, most sectors have to deal with the trade war. Policy watchers are skeptical there will be a shift toward China on trade. Outside the U.S., emerging markets are seeing gains.

To be sure, some market watchers say not much will change and it’s mostly just about playing defense.

Greg Valliere, chief global strategist at Horizon Investments LLC, said the election may have “only a modest impact on investors” who have bigger macro worries, including rising interest rates. And CIBC’s head of portfolio strategy Ian de Verteui writes that “history suggests equities do fine post-midterms” even when they often result in the president’s party losing seats.

Here’s what Wall Street is saying about key industries to watch:

· DRUGMAKERS

Investors may pile back into pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks now that midterm U.S. elections resulted in the expected stalemate between two major parties at odds on how to tackle escalating drug prices. Gridlock in Congress for at least the next two years would lessen the risk of disruptive, government-dictated pricing changes, according to analysts.

A three-time leveraged ETF tracking biotech companies advanced 1.2 percent before the start of regular U.S. trading, with 1,500 shares exchanging hands.

· BANKS

Analysts expect some near-term pressure on bank stocks but say it won’t be all bad news. Most market watchers anticipate Trump’s efforts to ease bank rules will continue, as his regulators are firmly in place. Veda Partners’ Henrietta Treyz said the very passing of the election itself will eliminate uncertainty and could help shares rise.

Before the U.S. market open, with more than 2,500 shares traded, the three-times leveraged Direxion Daily Financial Bull ETF gained 2.3 percent

· TECHNOLOGY

Internet companies, which are already struggling amid signs of cooling after years of rapid growth, have emerged as a rare subject of bipartisan criticism. “Tech is taking its place at or near the top of the agenda. Previously, it wasn’t even on the agenda,” said Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. Isaac Boltansky, senior policy analyst at Compass Point, suggested additional hearings are more likely than regulatory changes.

· INDUSTRIALS

Goldman analysts and economists believe a major spending package is unlikely, even as infrastructure stays a key focus in the legislative debate. They see only a 25 percent chance of an infrastructure spending bill if Republicans maintain control of both houses of Congress, due to financing difficulties, and “if Democrats take control of one or both chambers, our economists believe a major spending compromise is even less likely.”

· ENERGY

The midterms are seen having a “low” impact on the energy sector, according to UBS. “Barring a change in Republican support for the Iran sanctions — which have driven oil prices higher — Congress is unlikely to impact the sector,” UBS said.

· CANNABIS

As Democrats take the House and Attorney General Jeff Sessions departs, U.S.-focused pot stocks are likely to see a short-term surge, analysts say. Clarity on banking rules could help close the valuation gap between the U.S. stocks and their Canadian counterparts. At the state level, pot legalization is on the ballot in North Dakota and Michigan, while voters in Missouri and Utah will weigh in on medical marijuana proposals.

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